Tag Archives: Inflation

Behind The Jobs Numbers

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On Saturday, Zero Hedge posted an honest analysis of the jobs report that recently came out. It may be the only honest analysis out there. All of us know that the Biden economy is a problem for middle America–food inflation is in double digits, gas prices are lower than they have been but still a dollar or so a gallon more than they were under President Trump, and utility bills have increased dramatically in some places. President Biden may tell us that the economy is wonderful, but many of us living in it are not convinced. Just as an example, the total increase in my husband’s and my Social Security this year (after deducting the cost of Medicare) was about $115. I suspect that a lot of retirees didn’t even see that much of an increase. I can assure you that our grocery bill has gone up more than that.

The article at Zero Hedge is complicated and detailed. I suggest that  you follow the link and read it for yourselves. I will try to highlight some of it.

The article reports:

The headline data was stellar across the board, starting with the unemployment rate which once again failed to rise – denying expectations from “Sahm’s Rule” that a recession may have already started – all the way to average hourly earnings, which unexpectedly spiked from 4.1% (pre-revision) to 4.5%, the highest since last September, and a slap in the face to the Fed’s disinflation narrative…

… or it would be if one didn’t think of checking how the average rose: well, it turns out that, since average hourly earnings is a fraction, it did not rise due to a jump in actual wages but – since it is earnings over a period of time – “rose” because the BLS decided to sharply slash the number of estimated hours that everyone was working, from 34.3 to just 34.1, which may not sound like a lot until one realizes that the last time the workweek was this low was when the economy was shut down during covid.  Excluding the covid lockdowns, one would have to go back to 2010 to find a workweek that was this anemic.

The article concludes:

…Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since July 2018!

This is a huge issue – especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the border – and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened – i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why the Biden admin will do everything in his power to insure there is no official recession before November… and is why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get more and more ridiculous.

A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words

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President Biden and his administration are claiming that they have inflation under control and that Americans are doing better than ever. They can claim all they want, but a quick trip to the grocery store could quickly result in widespread skepticism.

On Friday, Red State posted an article where the Tweets tell the real story.

These are the tweets:

I realize it is hard to read, but the price went from $5.99 to $7.69 in three years–a 28 percent increase. Did your income go up 28 percent in those three years?

 

At Least One Committee Is Moving In The Right Direction

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On Sunday, Townhall reported that the House Budget Committee passed three bills out of committee with bi-partisan support. That is good news. Now if we could just close the border, we would have it made.

The article reports:

The Fiscal State of the Nation Act (H.R. 6952) was passed with strong bipartisan support on a voice vote and without amendments. That bill will require the Comptroller General of the United States, a position I held from 1998-2008, to provide an in-person annual report on the country’s financial condition and fiscal outlook of the country to a joint session of Congress. 

The Debt to GDP Transparency and Stabilization Act (HR 6957) passed without amendment with a 22-12 bipartisan vote. That bill will require the President’s annual budget submission to provide information on the current state and projected outlook of federal debt/GDP based on the President’s proposed budget.

The Fiscal Commission Act (H.R. 5779) was the most important piece of legislation and was the subject of a vast majority of the markup session. It would establish a sixteen-person statutory commission that would, among other things, educate and engage the American people on our nation’s financial and fiscal challenges. Twelve of the commission members would be sitting members of Congress equally divided between the House and Senate and each major party. These twelve would be the voting members. Four of the commission members would be fiscal experts who would not have a vote. After receiving input and deliberating various options, the commission would make a package of fiscal reform recommendations designed to stabilize debt/GDP at no more than 100% within ten years and ensure the long-term solvency of various trust funds. Everything would be on the table – discretionary, mandatory, and revenues. If a majority of the commission’s voting members recommend a package of reforms with bipartisan support, it would receive an expedited vote in both houses of Congress and only require a simple majority vote in both houses for passage. The commission would issue its report in December 2024 or, depending on the final passage of the Fiscal Commission Act, no later than May 2025. 

Fiscal responsibility should be a bi-partisan effort. The inflation cased by our bloated federal spending impacts all of us either directly or indirectly. The plan proposed years ago to take one penny away from every dollar spent by the federal government still has validity. Someone simply has to have the courage to stand up and demand budget cuts.

Things President Trump Got Right

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First of all, why is President Clinton always referred to as President Clinton and President Trump often referred to a Donald Trump? Subtle manipulation by the media?

On Sunday, Breitbart posted the following headline:

New York Times Columnist Admits ‘ Trump Got Three Big Things Right’

If you honestly look at President Trump’s accomplishments and record as President and compare it to where we are now, your choice in November is obvious.

The article analyses The New York Times article:

The January 11 article was posted under the headline: “The case for Trump … by someone who wants him to lose.”

Stephens wrote that “you can’t defeat an opponent if you refuse to understand what makes him formidable [and] too many people, especially progressives, fail to think deeply about the enduring sources of his appeal.”

…“Enforcing control at the border — whether through a wall, a fence or some other mechanism — isn’t racism,” Stephens wrote. “It’s a basic requirement of statehood and peoplehood, which any nation has an obligation to protect and cherish.”

Trump also caught the public’s mood of decline and pessimism, Stephens wrote. “Far too little has changed since then … If anything, Trump’s thesis may be truer today than it was the first time he ran on it,” Stephens admitted.

Trump also amplified the public’s falling trust in experts, professionals, and merit institutions that were supposed to be independent of politics, Stephens wrote.

…Many voters in 20224 will remember Trump’s first term fondly, he said. “Americans have reasons to remember the Trump years as good ones … Wages outpaced inflation, something they have just begun to do under Biden.

I question the claim that wages have begun to outpace inflation. What used to be a $75 trip to the grocery store is still about $125. President Trump represents the hope of the American people that someone will speak up for them in Washington. We don’t want the government meddling in the home appliance market. We don’t the government performing S.W.A.T. raids on citizens that are not a threat to society. We don’t want the government refusing to enforce the law when Supreme Court Justices have their homes unlawfully picketed.

The Real Cost Of Living

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Washington always finds a way to lie with statistics when it comes to the economy. Limiting the items included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one way to convince Americans that inflation isn’t as bad as it seems and also a way to limit the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) of various federal disbursements. However, those fake numbers don’t help Americans deal with the rising cost of food and gasoline.

On Sunday, PJ Media posted an article about the rising cost of living in America.

The article reports:

Perhaps the most misleading government statistic of all is the Consumer Price Index. The CPI is an incredibly important statistic because so many government programs that benefit American citizens are tied to that number.

It’s usually cited as the inflation rate, but it’s not really. The CPI is the rate of increase in a subjective “market basket” of goods and services. The things that concern you and me the most as far as price increases have very little to do with the CPI. The CPI doesn’t track food or gas prices at the pump, so the CPI that we see every month doesn’t tell us anything useful.

Right now, the CPI stands at 3.1%. That’s down from a high of 9.1% in June 2022. But even that doesn’t tell us the whole inflation story because along with skyrocketing food and gas prices, real wages failed to keep pace with the price increases.

According to The New York Sun:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released jobs numbers this morning that show non-farm wages increased 4.1 percent in the past year, which is above the inflation rate of 3.1 percent. The problem is that inflation-adjusted real hourly wages — those of the average blue-collar or middle-class person — are down 4.7 percent today from when Mr. Biden took office. That’s a weekly earnings decline in real wages to $381 in November 2023 from $399 in January 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“The reason Biden polls so badly is that there’s a decline in wages and an increase in prices,” a former economic adviser to President Trump, Larry Kudlow, tells the Sun. He calls this the “affordability crisis.”

Americans feel it when they walk into the grocery store. Food prices increased nearly 6 percent in 2023, according to the Department of Agriculture. In 2022, at-home food prices — what one buys in a grocery store — increased more than 11 percent. No matter one’s income, it’s hard not to notice the rising cost of food at the grocery store and at restaurants — even fast food.

Are voters going to believe what they are told or what they see?

If You Wanted Your Pizza Delivered…

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Beginning in 2024, California’s new minimum wage law passed by the Democrat legislature will go into effect. The new law sets the fast-food minimum wage at $20 an hour. That’s a pretty good place to start if you are a worker. However, what does it do to the bottom line of a company who is in business to make a profit (most companies are in business to make a profit)?

On Thursday, Issues & Insights posted an article detailing the impact the law, which will go into effect in April, has already had.

The article reports:

The state will raise its overall mandated minimum-wage rate from $16 an hour to $16.50 an hour overall, starting in 2024. But some industries will get an even bigger wage shock: fast-food minimum wages go up to $20 an hour starting in April. Meanwhile, workers in the health care industry will see their minimum wage rise to $18, $21 or $23 an hour, depending on the job.

It’s about time, you say?

Let’s start by saying we’re not against anyone getting a raise. But raises should come from the companies themselves, not from government decrees. As study after study in recent years show, government-mandated minimum wage hikes usually hurt those they’re meant to help.

It’s an irony that seems lost on California’s leftist political class, now in total control of the state, continues to “help” those at the bottom rungs of the economic ladder by making it more expensive for businesses to hire them and keep them working.

Already, with California’s looming minimum-wage tax on fast-food chains in the state, employers are tweaking costs by reducing hours, laying off workers and charging you more for that cheeseburger, fries and a drink that you crave.

Though the calendar says it’s still 2023, franchisees of the Pizza Hut chain have announced this week they’re laying off 1,200 drivers who used to deliver their piping-hot pies door-to-door. With the new higher wages, they can’t afford to keep drivers working.

The article points out some other consequences:

So who will suffer?

“Every time we raise the minimum wage, kids lose their jobs,” Ohanian explains. “This isn’t efficient, and it isn’t right. We should not be implementing policies that prevent people from being able to work.”

As for the argument that the hike is needed to “keep up with inflation,” whose inflation are we talking about? Just the workers? How about the businesses? With three-quarters of their costs being labor-related, they have to take immediate action, or go out of business.

And then there are the customers. They, not the businesses, will foot the bill when they buy a suddenly-much-pricier cheeseburger or a pizza. Prices will go up, as they inevitably do, when higher costs can’t be offset by gains in productivity.

For the curious, there are literally dozens of studies and reports out there (including our own) that explode the myths of raising minimum wages, ranging from Walter B. Williams’ 1977 landmark study for Congress that showed minority youths suffered most when minimum wages rise, to more recent studies showing that non-wage losses after a minimum-wage hike offset any gains for workers.

What will now happen, no doubt, is that there will be more automation (robots already prepare food at McDonald’s, Chipotle, White Castle, Panera and other outlets), more self-service terminals, and fewer workers overall.

And, oh yes, stores will close. Marginal stores that can’t make up the higher costs will simply shut down, thanks to inflation and higher wages.

Sometimes when the government aims to help, it simply makes things worse for the people who are struggling to make ends meet already.

 

 

Can We Elect Argentina’s President As America’s President This Year?

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On December 27th, Headline USA reported the following:

(Luis Cornelio, Headline USA) Newly sworn-in Argentina President Javier Milei purged over 5,000 government bureaucrats, fulfilling a campaign pledge to reduce the size of the inflation-burdened federal government. 

According to the Spanish-language newspaper El Pais, Milei signed an executive order to halt the contracts of federal workers hired in 2023, likely targeting individuals hired by his former leftist predecessor.

The order came after the capitalist president vowed to rescue Argentina from widespread corruption, inflation and wasteful government spending. 

El Pais reported that some disabled and indispensable employees will be exempt from the layoffs. However, the Argentine government announced a comprehensive audit within the next 90 days, hinting at potential future layoffs. 

The article notes that President Milei has been compared to President Trump in that President Trump has also pledged to shrink the federal government if he is elected in 2024. It will be interesting to watch the consequences of such a drastic change.

Bidenomics And The Cost Of Buying A House

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Although President Biden has attempted to buy votes from younger voters with his student loan bailout programs, in the process he has created inflation and interest rates that put buying a home out of reach for the very people he has tried to bribe.

On Monday, Breitbart posted an article about what has happened to monthly mortgage payments under President Biden.

The article reports:

The average monthly mortgage payment in Joe Biden’s America has soared to $3,322, per analysis from the Wall Street Journal.

That $3,322 is nearly double the average monthly mortgage payment when His Fraudulency assumed office. When former President Trump left office, the average monthly mortgage payment was $1,787.

The article includes the following Twitter post:

The article notes:

Those obnoxiously high mortgage payments are not only due to the Bidenflation caused by His Fraudulency’s lunatic government spending. There are other factors…

For those of you who vote Democrat and are currently pissing away all your money on rent because you can’t afford a home, riddle me this: What happens to the housing market when a president throws open our southern border to millions and millions of illegal aliens who need a place to live? Think hard now… Could it be that when you have a finite amount of something people want and then flood the country with millions more people who want it…? Yes, that’s right, dummies, the cost of that Something People Want explodes and that Something People Want becomes scarcer. And now you want it and can’t get it because you’re a dummy.

The second factor is this… Democrats hate single-family homes. This is why they use Climate Change to justify blocking the construction of new homes. Democrats want us all packed in cities in massive government housing complexes. By the way, they make no secret of this.

The final factor is this… This is all by design, dummies. Democrats know lunatic government spending creates lunatic inflation and that lunatic inflation destroys purchasing power and creates high interest rates that make it impossible for the middle class to purchase a home. Democrats also know that when you flood a country already dealing with a housing crisis caused by enviro-lies with millions of illegals, housing costs explode.

If you are a young American just entering the workforce full time, do yourself a favor and vote every Democrat (and RINO Republican) out of office. That is the only way you can secure your financial future.

When You Have Someone In The White House Who Does Not Understand Basic Economics…

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On Wednesday, The Gateway Pundit posted an article about one of President Biden’s recent speeches. The President is most interesting when he is not reading his notes.

The article reports:

President Biden acknowledged Monday that prices are still “too high” and argued that companies should lower them after an 18% jump in consumer costs since he took office.

“We know that prices are still too high for too many things — that times are still too tough for too many families,” the 81-year-old said near the White House.

“We’ve made progress, but we have more work to do,” Biden added. “Let me be clear to any corporation has not brought their prices back down, even as inflation has come down, even supply chains have been rebuilt: It’s time to stop the price gouging and give the American consumer a break.”

The prices of some goods, such as food products, are expected to decline in the coming months, but periods of general deflation are rare in US history.

Biden previously used his bully pulpit to try to pressure oil companies to take action to lower gas prices last year.

The only one price gouging is the federal government–they call it taxing. The cause of our current inflation is government spending, but that is the one cause that Washington consistently refusing to examine.

We need a businessman in the White House and many more in Congress.

Gaslighting?

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After a while you wonder if people are going to believe what the mainstream media tells them or what they see with their own eyes. Some of the recent claims made by the Biden administration simply do not agree with the reality Americans are dealing with.

On Monday, The U.K. Daily Mail reported:

President Joe Biden on Monday touted his administration’s success in bringing down the price of gas, groceries and airline tickets during the past year but received little thanks for his efforts.

Republicans ridiculed his claims.

‘FACT: Since Biden took office, airfare is up 21%, Thanksgiving dinner was up 25%, and gas prices are $0.86/gallon higher,’ the Republican National Committee said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

It illustrates the difficulty Biden faces as he tries to sell what his administration believes is an economic good news story ahead of next year’s general election. 

Inflation may have slowed and some prices may have dropped since last year, but most prices are still higher than they were before the pandemic.  

The article concludes:

And when it comes to public perceptions, most consumers don’t see a good news story in inflation settling down when they are still paying much higher prices than they did before the pandemic.

‘No matter how the White House spins it, Joe Biden’s out-of-control spending & mismanagement of our nation’s finances have increases prices by more than 17%,’ said Republican Rep. Ben Cline on X.

‘The cost of “Bidenomics” just keeps adding up for working families.’

Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin said: ‘Last year, Joe Biden’s broken policy agenda generated the highest inflation in 40 years. Americans have faced 33 straight months of rising prices, with food costs increasing every month since Biden took office. 

‘Americans aren’t buying the spin.’

The Republican National Committee also took issue with Biden saying gas prices had come down.

‘FACT CHECK: Under Joe Biden, gas prices have been above $3 per gallon for over 900 days in a row,’ it posted.

I think I would welcome a mean tweet about now.

Bidenomics At Work

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Aside from what you are paying for groceries and gasoline, have you looked at mortgage rates and home sales right now?

On Monday, One America News reported the following:

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell more than expected in October, likely as higher mortgage rates reduced affordability, but the housing segment remains supported by a persistent shortage of previously owned properties on the market.

New home sales dropped 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Monday. September’s sales pace was revised lower to 719,000 units from the previously reported 759,000 units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, would fall to a rate of 723,000 units.

New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. They, however, can be volatile on a month-to-month basis. Sales increased 17.7% on a year-on-year basis in October.

The stock of previously owned houses on the market is nearly 50% below it’s pre-pandemic level, according to the National Association of Realtors, which last week reported that home resales plunged to more than a 13-year low in October. Most homeowners have mortgage rates under 3%, making many reluctant to sell, boosting demand for new construction.

According to The Mortgage Reports, the mortgage interest rate in 2021 was 2.96 percent. In 2022, it was 5.34 percent. The current mortgage rate, according to Nerd Wallet is about 7.5 percent. That is a significant increase. Interest rates were artificially kept low for a number of years. That was not sustainable. However, the rate of increase (the Federal Reserve’s attempt to curb inflation) has hurt real estate sales. At one point many years ago because of a job change, we were forced to take out a mortgage at 8.5 percent (giving up a mortgage of 4 percent). If you are sitting on a 3 or 4 percent mortgage right now, the last thing you want to do is move and take out a 7.5 percent mortgage. Bidenomics has hurt Americans across the board. We need a new President with a new approach to the economy.

The Economy Is Questionable At Best

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I love it when a Democrat is in power–when unemployment rises it is always a surprise–even at Fox News.

On November 3rd, Fox News posted an article about the current state of the American economy.

The article reports:

U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October, a sign the labor market is finally softening in the face of higher interest rates, stubborn inflation and other economic uncertainties.

Employers added 150,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, missing the 180,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, unexpectedly ticked up to 3.9% — the highest level in nearly two years. The pickup in the jobless rate suggests that layoffs are on the rise; the survey of households shows that the number of workers laid off rose in October by 92,000 from the previous month.

The unemployment number of 3.9% is not really a good measure of the economy unless it is looked at in relation to the workforce participation rate, currently slightly down at 62.7. Just to give some perspective, the workforce participation rate was 62.8% when President Trump took office in January 2017. It peaked at 63.3 in February 2020 (the ‘stop the spread’ shutdown began in March 2020). The reported unemployment rate is calculated only counting people who are looking for jobs. I suspect that if you counted everyone who is able to work but not working, the number would be much higher.

The article also notes:

The report also contained steep downward revisions to job growth at the end of the summer. Gains for August and September were revised down by a total of 101,000 jobs to a respective 165,000 and 297,000, the government said, suggesting that the labor market is weaker than it previously appeared.

The bottom line here is that the economy is not really growing although inflation is. For further details, please follow the link above to read the entire article.

 

Looking Behind The Obvious Numbers

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On Saturday, Trending Politics posted an article about the latest jobs numbers (which are being praised by the Biden administration).

The article reports:

President Biden and other top Democrat leaders have taken a victory lap over the latest jobs report that “soared past expectations” by showing that the U.S. added 336,000 jobs in September. While the Biden Administration has hailed the report as a win for “Bidenomics,” an economist with the Heritage Foundation took to X to explain why the report is actually “very troubling.”

…Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni analyzed the findings further in a lengthy X thread, however, explaining why the report is “very troubling.”

“September nonfarm payrolls jump 336k; Unemployment rate flat at 3.8%; Labor force participation rate remains depressed at 62.8%; Those not in the labor force rose to roughly 5 million more than pre-pandemic – this is artificially pushing down unemployment rate,” Antoni wrote. When adjusting for true labor participation rate, Antoni pegged the actual unemployment rate between 6.3 and 6.8 percent.

…Antoni also pointed out that roughly 22 percent of jobs created came from the government, “an unsustainable increase.”

“Remember that private sector workers have to support those public sector jobs,” he continued.

The economist also noted that every single job created was part-time, pointing out that 1.2 million part-time jobs have been created over the last three months. Full-time jobs actually dropped by 700,000 over the same period, the highest figure since COVID-19 lockdowns.

In addition, double counting of multiple jobholders accounted for 37 percent of supposed gains.

…Antoni concluded by pointing out that the massive increase in part-time jobs is slowing down wage growth. “Lastly, the loss of full-time jobs and their replacement w/ part-time work is helping slow wage growth, which is then negative after adjusting for inflation – real weekly earnings fell dramatically until Jun ’22 and have moved sideways since,” Antoni wrote.

“People [are] supplementing incomes w/ part-time jobs are goosing the headline numbers while underlying economic fundamentals remain weak; people absent from workforce pushing down unemployment rate; earnings not keeping up with inflation; don’t expect the job gains to last.”

It will be interesting to see if this ‘favorable’ jobs report results in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The Biden administration is also claiming that inflation is under control–tell that to the people who have recently gone shopping or filled up their gas tank.

Please follow the link to the article. It includes a number of graphs and lots of additional information.

Bidennomics At Work

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On September 12, The Washington Examiner reported the following:

Median household incomes peaked at $78,250 in 2019, the year before the pandemic. They declined in 2022 to $74,580, a year that saw inflation soar, undercutting household purchasing power.

“Despite nominal gains, historically high inflation resulted in a decline in real median household income,” said Liana Fox, assistant division chief for economic characteristics in the Census Bureau’s Social, Economic, and Housing Statistics Division.

That’s about a $300 a month decrease.

The article continues:

The figures released on Tuesday showed that poverty was flat, with about 11.5% of the population, or 38 million people, below the poverty line, which was $29,678 for a family of four.

The bureau also reported a jump in child poverty by one metric, the supplemental poverty measure, or SPM, from 5.2% to 12.4%. The increase was attributable in large part to the expiration of the temporary expanded child tax credit implemented by Democrats and President Joe Biden as a form of pandemic relief. The SPM, unlike the official poverty measure, includes tax credits in calculating household resources.

The question that needs to be asked in next year’s election is, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

The Results Of Out-Of-Control Spending

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On Wednesday, Issues & Insights posted an article about the budget deficit.

The article reports:

Over the weekend, the Washington Post let it slip that all is not well in Bidenomicsville. The deficit, it reports, could end up hitting $2 trillion when the current fiscal year ends in three weeks, which it describes as an “unexpected deficit surge.”

In other words, the deficit will nearly double this year, calling the lie on one of President Joe Biden’s favorite boasts about how he cut the deficit more than any president in history.

But while this apparently comes as a shock to the Post, as well as other liberal news sites that picked up on the Post report, anyone paying attention knew this was happening.

Back in February, for example, we pointed out that Biden’s reckless economic policies had added more than $5 trillion to projected deficits, even as he claimed he’d done more to cut the deficit than “any president in history.”

…Now, households are paying dearly in the form of sharply higher prices for food, energy consumer goods, rents, and just about anything else they buy.

At the same time, Biden pushed through tax hikes and unleashed federal regulators, who are now gleefully writing rules to ban gas stoves, force electric car sales, slap massive new costs on energy producers, with plenty more to come. These are all anti-growth policies that are having their expected effect.

This is what Bidenomics is all about. And now we have a budget crisis that is snowballing.

That’s because while revenues keep coming in “unexpectedly” low (thanks to Biden’s sluggish economy), interest rate hikes are fueling massive increases in the cost of financing the federal government’s $30 trillion debt load.

Shutting down the government to stop the spending may be the only way we even have a possibility of not seeing our economy collapse under the weight of the federal debt.

How You Vote Impacts YOU!

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On Tuesday, The Associated Press reported the following:

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed Tuesday to extend their voluntary oil production cuts through the end of this year, trimming 1.3 million barrels of crude out of the global market and boosting energy prices.

The dual announcements from Riyadh and Moscow pushed benchmark Brent crude above $90 a barrel in trading Tuesday afternoon, a price unseen in the market since November.

The countries’ moves could increase inflation and the cost for motorists at gasoline pumps. It also puts new pressure on Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the United States, as President Joe Biden last year warned the kingdom there would be unspecified “consequences” for partnering with Russia on cuts as Moscow wages war on Ukraine.

Because of the Biden administration’s energy policies, we are not in a position to make any threats to any oil-producing country! Like it or not, fossil fuel is one of the major foundations of our economy. Fossil fuel powers the trucks that move products, the factories that produce products (those factories the Biden administration tax policies have not driven out of the country), and provides Americans with comfort and mobility. Under President Trump we were energy independent and inflation was under control. Until we go back to the policies that worked for the American people, our standard of living will continue to decline and inflation will continue to rise.

The article concludes:

In recent months, tensions eased slightly as Biden’s administration sought a deal with Riyadh for it to diplomatically recognize Israel.

But those talks include Saudi Arabia pushing for a nuclear cooperation deal that includes America allowing it to enrich uranium in the kingdom — something that worries nonproliferation experts, as spinning centrifuges open the door to a possible weapons program.

Prince Mohammed already has said the kingdom would pursue an atomic bomb if Iran had one, potentially creating a nuclear arms race in the region as Tehran’s program continues to advance closer to weapons-grade levels. Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a détente in recent months, though the region remains tense amid the wider tensions between Iran and the U.S.

Higher oil prices would also help Russian President Vladimir Putin fund his war on Ukraine. Western countries have used a price cap to try to cut into Moscow’s revenues. But those sanctions have seen Moscow be forced to sell its oil at a discount to countries like China and India.

How Is Bidenomics Working For You?

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On Monday, Breitbart posted an article about the ‘success’ of Bidenomics. The White House is attempting to convince Americans that Bidenomics has had a positive impact on the American economy. I don’t think they are succeeding.

The article reports:

A super-majority of voters have negative views of the U.S. economy and disapprove of President Biden’s handling of the issue, according to a Wall Street Journal poll that the paper describes as “a stark warning to the 80-year-old incumbent ahead of the 2024 contest.”

Sixty-three percent of American registered voters say the economy’s strength is “not so good” or “poor.” Just 32 percent say the economy is “good” and only five percent say the economy is “excellent.”

…When asked how the economy has fared over the past two years, 58 percent say the economy has gotten worse. Just 28 percent say the economy has gotten better. Twelve percent say the economy is about the same as it was two years ago.

Although the rate of inflation has declined this year, Americans are unhappy with rising prices. Seventy-four percent say inflation has moved in the wrong direction, with just 20 percent saying it has moved in the right direction.

…The economy is weighing heavily on the minds of many Americans. Thirty-eight percent of Americans say the economy is the most important issue in the 2024 Presidential election, up from 35 percent in April. Another 10 percent said inflation is the most important issue, up from seven percent in April. After the economy, the top issue is “immigration, at 23 percent. No other issue scores in the double-digits.

These negative views of the economy are likely weighing down Biden’s overall popularity. Just 39 percent say they have a favorable view of Biden, versus 58 percent who say they have an unfavorable view. Forty-nine percent say they have a very unfavorable view.

Unfortunately, because of media bias, former President Trump has never been given credit for the economy he created during the first two years of his administration (and was beginning to rebuild after Covid). The logical solution to the pending economic disaster under President Biden is to re-elect President Trump. However, the media and the uni-party in Washington are willing to do anything to prevent that from happening.

Unfortunately, Inflation Is Still With Us

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On Thursday, Townhall posted an article about the current inflation levels.

The article reports:

Yet another inflation metric jumped in July, further debunking claims that inflation is in the rear-view mirror and reinforcing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks earlier this month that additional interest rate hikes would be needed.

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index print released Thursday was in-line with expectations which were higher than previous reads.

Headline PCE inflation showed an increase of 3.3 percent year-over-year and Core PCE inflation — excluding volatile food and energy prices — increased 4.2 percent in the last year.

Compared to the previous release, headline and core PCE inflation increased 3.0 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, showing that price increases continue to trend in the wrong, more expensive, direction. The July report also (again) debunks President Joe Biden’s wishful claims that inflation is “down.”

So what do higher interest rates mean for Americans?

Today’s fixed interest rate on a thirty-year mortgage is about 7 percent. If you have an $180,000 mortgage and put 10 percent down, your monthly payment at 7 percent (mortgage only) would be about $1,200. For the same down payment and loan amount, your monthly payment (mortgage only) at 3.5 percent would be about $800 (source here). That’s a difference of almost $5,000 a year. That impacts the housing market as well as the ability of young couples starting out to buy a house.

There is also the matter of payments on the national debt. As the interest rate is raised, those payments also go up.

Raising interest rates may slightly slow down inflation, but it will not solve the problem. Until someone deals with the runaway spending in Washington, we will have inflation. The other thing to note is that as the value of the dollar goes down because of inflation, payments on the national debt are made with money that is worth less than it was when the debt was incurred. The whole thing is a viscous circle where working-class Americans pay the price.

How Is Bidenomics Working For You?

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On Thursday, The Daily Caller posted an article about the current state of the American economy.

The article reports:

Inflation rose in July after steadily declining from a high of 9.1% in June 2022, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release on Thursday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad measure of the prices of everyday goods like energy and food, increased 3.2% on an annual basis in July, compared to 3.0% in June, according to the BLS. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile categories of energy and food, remained high, rising 4.7% year-over-year in July, compared to 4.8% in June.

“Inflation has become much more ingrained in the economy than the White House, Congress, or the Fed want to admit,” E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Combined with slowing economic growth, we have the perfect recipe for stagflation.”

The workforce participation rate has remained at 62.6 since March. In February 2020, before Covid, it was 63.3. It began a downward spiral in March 2020 and has never fully recovered. The economy has not grown significantly–jobs added are simply the jobs coming back after the Covid pandemic.

The article concludes:

The U.S. added 187,000 jobs for the month of July, 13,000 fewer than economists expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The number of jobs for the months of June and May was revised down by a cumulative 49,000 jobs.

The U.S. economy grew at a rate of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023, surprising economists who anticipated a more modest expansion of 2%.

Overshadowed By The Trump Indictment

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On Tuesday, The National Review reported that America’s long-term foreign-currency-issuer default rating has been downgraded. You may have missed this news because the media was focused on the Trump indictment. However, this news will impact more Americans and needs to be heard.

The article reports:

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday downgraded America’s long-term foreign-currency-issuer default rating, citing ongoing and projected future fiscal instability, an increasingly long and disruptive governance process, and rising debt and deficits.

The tumultuous negotiations and gridlock between Republicans and Democrats in June over raising the debt ceiling were evidence that “there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years,” Fitch, one of the “big three” U.S. credit-ratings agencies alongside S&P and Moody’s, said in a statement. That episode put the U.S. at risk of payment default and threatened to plunge it into a debt crisis. After weeks of back-and-forth, the parties agreed to suspend the debt limit for two years until January 2025, with a number of conditions and concessions made to both sides.

The government as of late has been operating under modern monetary theory.

Business Insider describes modern monetary theory as follows:

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is an economic theory that suggests that the government could simply create more money without consequence as it’s the issuer of the currency, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. As part of this theory, the thinking is that government deficits and national debt don’t matter nearly as much as we think they do. 

This is the equivalent of the person who says, “How can I be overdrawn–I still have checks?” It is an avoidance of responsible spending and has gotten us into the mess we are currently in. Excessive printing of money creates inflation and hurts most Americans.

The article at The National Review notes:

Among the others factors the agency said were making the U.S. less reliable to honor its obligations are the Federal Reserve tightening monetary conditions via interest-rate increases to combat inflation. The central bank also continues to shed its massive balance sheet of mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries, furthering fostering an environment of tighter credit, Fitch said. The economy, the agency noted, is expected to slip into a “mild recession” in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Hang on to your hats. We may be in for a rough ride.

When Fact Checkers Check President Biden

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Recently President Biden made a speech where he claimed that Bidenomics was working for everyone–inflation was down, jobs were up, etc. Well, that sounds wonderful, but the numbers tell a different story.

Issues & Insights reported:

The middle class made huge gains during the “trickle-down” Reagan boom and was making huge gains during the Trump boom until the Biden-backed COVID lockdowns gutted it.

Truth is, the only way Biden can make the case for “Bidenomics” is by lying. Examples:

    • “U.S. has had the highest economic growth rate, leading the world economies since the pandemic.”

Except it didn’t. The U.S. ranks 146th in real GDP growth in the world so far this year, came in 151st place last year, and was 66th in 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund.

    • “We created 13.4 million new jobs.”

Also false. Because almost 10 million of those were simply refilled jobs lost during the pointless COVID lockdown. Under Biden, the number of net new jobs is less than 4 million — which is nothing to brag about, given that the working-age population has grown by 6.8 million since Biden took office.

    • “Americans are back to work who’ve been on the sidelines, and they want to come back.”

Another falsehood. There are almost 10 million people who’ve dropped out of the labor force as of today, which is 2.7 million higher than it was just before all the COVID lockdowns.

    • “Just in my first two years in office, my team and I have reduced the deficit by $1.7 trillion.“

His biggest lie yet. As we pointed out in this space earlier, a Congressional Budget Office report released at the start of this year showed that “Biden sharply increased the deficit last year, this year, and next year, and he has set the country on course to add a total of $5.45 trillion to the federal deficit over the following decade.”

The only thing that Biden said that was truthful in his speech is that “Bidenomics is working.”

It’s working all right, assuming that Biden’s plan was to destroy America.

Please follow the link to the article. It includes a number of charts that actually illustrate what has happened to the American economy since 2021.

More Fact Checkers

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On Thursday, The Washington Examiner posted an article about President Biden’s recent speech on Bidenomics.

The article reports:

President Joe Biden promised a “fundamental break” with “trickle-down economics” in a speech on Wednesday in which he relied on a number of misleading claims to make his point.

Touting “Bidenomics,” the White House’s name for its economic agenda heading into the 2024 race, Biden floated a plan that would involve spending more taxpayer money and boosting union labor.

Here is the fact check on that speech:

“My predecessor enacted the latest iteration of the failed theory. Tax cuts for the wealthy. It wasn’t paid for, and the estimated cost of his tax cut was $2 trillion.”

Former President Donald Trump‘s tax cuts did not benefit only the wealthy, and they didn’t cost the government nearly as much as critics claimed.

Last year, the Congressional Budget Office actually said the government is expected to collect more revenue over the next decade than it had projected before the tax cuts were signed into law.

In fiscal 2018, the first year after Trump signed the tax cuts into law, the federal government actually collected slightly more revenue overall than it had the previous year.

We learned this during the Reagan administration–when you cut taxes, revenue goes up.

The article continues:

“Wind and solar are already significantly cheaper than coal and oil. You’re not going to see anybody building a new coal-fired plant in America — not just because I’d like to pass a law to say that; it’s too expensive.”

One key reason that renewable energy is now cheaper than traditional energy production is because the Biden administration has offered sweeping tax breaks and subsidies to green energy companies.

…“Today, inflation is less than half of what it was a year ago. And that inflation [was] caused by Russia and by the war in Ukraine and by what was going on.”

Inflation still remains significantly higher than before Biden took office, even if it has fallen from the heights of last year.

Before Biden took office, the consumer price index, a measure of inflation, rose 1.4% for 2020.

The CPI climbed 4.9% from April 2022 to April 2023, meaning prices this year are still rising far faster than before Biden’s inauguration.

While inflation was indeed worse last year, with prices jumping by 8.6% between May 2021 and May 2022, it remains a significant problem for many at nearly four times the level it was before Biden’s presidency.

…“When I took office, unemployment was over 6%. With the American Rescue Plan, we provided relief and support directly to working-class families. Our economy came roaring back. Unemployment dipped below 4% by the end of my first year in office.”

Like Biden’s claim about the number of jobs created, this statement is misleading because the unemployment rate was artificially high when he took office.

The unemployment rate had already begun to come down from its high of 14.8% in April 2020 by the time Biden took office.

Ending lockdowns and easing pandemic restrictions were the primary drivers of the unemployment rate’s fall, but Biden opposed both as a presidential candidate.

…“Just in my first two years in office, my team and I reduced the deficit by $1.7 trillion.” 

Biden has previously touted the deficit reduction that occurred on his watch, and it’s been misleading every time.

The national debt grew by $7.8 trillion during Trump’s four years in office.

But much of that occurred in 2020 as a result of emergency pandemic spending.

The deficit at the end of fiscal 2020 was more than triple what it was at the end of fiscal 2019, a result of the massive rescue packages Congress passed to blunt the effects of lockdowns.

…In fact, Biden has pushed for record levels of spending, and he asked Congress for relief funds in 2021 well in excess of what was needed at the time.

Please follow the link to the article for further details.

Destructive Inflation

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Author: R. Alan Harrop,Ph.D

The news reports are that inflation is higher now than it has been in 40 years. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 1.2% in 2020, the last year of the Trump administration, and was 8.6% in 2022 under the Biden regime. Let’s take a look at how this has actually impacts the average American family.

First of all, the CPI does not include food and energy, two of the biggest expenses. Food on average has gone up 24% and gasoline from $1.87 to $3.69 per gallon during Biden’s presidency. At the same time the purchasing value of the dollar has gone down 7.4%. An item that you could buy for $100 in 2020 now will cost you $115. New automobiles are up an average of 29% and used cars 52%. Home prices are up an average of 10.4% since 2020. Home mortgage rates have gone from 3.1% to 6.8% costing an average of $878 more per month for a typical home priced at $355.000. For the length of a typical 30 year mortgage the home owner will pay a whopping $316,000. more today than in 2020.

What does all this mean? Your standard of living has gone down substantially and you are poorer now than in 2020. Your wallet does not lie. Now, it is important to realize, that even if the Federal Reserve can get
the inflation rate down to a more manageable level of 1.5% this does not mean that the cost of items will ever return to 2020 levels. They will only stop rising as quickly. The Biden administration has permanently
reduced your standard of living. Period. Of course, they will try to tell you that this dramatic rise in inflation is due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If you believe that, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I can sell you at a
bargain price. The inflation we are experiencing is due to reckless federal spending and the war on fossil fuels. No other explanations are needed; such as blaming it on the China virus or President Trump.

So what do we do? The only way to correct this problem is by expanding production and providing inexpensive, abundant energy. Only the Republican Party (particularly with President Trump) can turn this around before it is too late. For Democrats the truth is hard to face; but face it we must if we are to save this country.

 

No, The Biden Administration Has Not Stopped Inflation

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On Tuesday, Zero Hedge posted an article about the current Consumer Price Index and other aspects of the inflation we are currently dealing with. Please follow the link to read the article as it includes multiple charts showing where we are and where we have been.

The article reports:

Inflation accelerated on a monthly basis.

  • CPI increased 0.5%, the most in three months, versus 0.1% in the prior month; on a core basis, it was up 0.4% (versus 0.3%). Both were in line with estimates. On an annual basis, CPI increased 6.4% from the year-ago period versus 6.5% in December, higher than forecasts.
  • Aside from the headline numbers, analysts and markets were also looking at the so-called super-core figure, or core services minus housing. It’s a category that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has singled as a must-watch. That showed some easing, increasing at a slower 0.27% pace in the month and 6.2% from the prior year.
  • Housing contributed the most to the monthly increase in CPI, making up nearly half the gain. Food, gasoline and natural gas also boosted the monthly figure.

…Policymakers have flagged that the road from here on inflation would be bumpy, with some months and categories showing persistent price pressure, though that the overall trend is down. This report, in addition to a blowout January jobs gain, showed that inflation remains persistent in the US economy, and will need further action from the central bank.

The article includes the following charts:

I can only imagine the struggles of raising a family in this economy.

 

About That Speech

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On Thursday, The Federalist weighed in on President Biden’s State of the Union Speech.

Here are a few comments from the article:

Like Nero bragging about rebuilding Circus Maximus after burning it down, Joe Biden took to the podium tonight to take credit for solving a slew of problems he helped create.

At the top of his State of the Union address, the president boasted that he had “created more jobs in two years than any president created in four years.” No president — not Joe Biden nor Donald Trump — creates jobs. But Biden’s contention was exceptionally misleading, considering he inherited an economy that had been unplugged by an artificial, state-induced shutdown. If the government compels businesses to shutter, it doesn’t “create” jobs when allowing them to open.

Presidents don’t create jobs, but their policies create an atmosphere that either encourages or discourages economic growth. President Biden’s economic policies have not encouraged economic growth.

The article also notes:

Three years ago, the unemployment rate was at 3.5 percent. Today, Biden reminded us that it was at a historic low of 3.4 percent. More than 30 million people lost their jobs to Covid lockdowns. Biden claims to have “created” 12 million jobs during the past two years. The one big difference is that the labor participation rate still hasn’t recovered to pre-Covid numbers. It’s great that people are working again. But millions fewer are in the market for jobs.

The article concludes:

Biden went into his well-worn platitudes and myths about how the rich don’t pay taxes — “[n]o billionaire should be paying a lower tax rate than a school teacher or a firefighter!” — and proposed higher rates on the wealthy and corporations. He also promised to micromanage the economy with a slew of new regulations that would interfere in voluntary contracts struck between employees and employers and consumers and businesses.

Biden implored Congress to pass the PRO Act, a bill that would empower the government to impose unions on businesses and workers who want no part of them. Biden hawked an entire menu of crude economic populism — including price controls and protectionist trade policies that would undermine growth, competition, job creation, and innovation while driving up the cost of virtually every construction project in the country.

There were numerous lies, half-truths, and deceptions. There was a slew of antiquated economic ideas and sloganeering. But, surely, the president’s biggest lie of the night was to claim, “I’m a capitalist.”

We have a President who needs to take an Economics Course. He does not understand (or chooses to ignore) basic economic facts.