The Real Economic Numbers

On Tuesday, Breitbart posted a cheat sheet for anyone watching the debate who might wonder about the economic information cited. The cheat sheet came in very handy, as much of what Vice-President Harris cited in terms of economic numbers was pure fiction.

Here are the numbers on the Trump economy and the Biden economy:

  • Peak Inflation for Trump: 2.85%
  • Peak Inflation for Biden-Harris: 8.98%
  • Peak annualized inflation for Trump: 6.3% in September 2017
  • Peak annualized inflation for Biden-harris: 16.05% in June 2022
  • Cumulative Trump Inflation: 5.9%
  • Cumulative Biden-Harris Inflation: 19%
  • Cumulative Trump grocery inflation: 6%
  • Cumulative Biden-Harris grocery inflation: 20.9%
  • Rent increase under Trump: 12.5%
  • Rent increase under Biden-Harris: 22.1%
  • Months of PCE inflation above two percent under Trump: 5
  • Months of PCE inflation above two percent under Biden-Harris: 40
  • Manufacturing Jobs Added under Trump: 414,500
  • Manufacturing Jobs Added under Biden-Harris: 138,000
  • Growth of Manufacturing Jobs under Trump: 3.5%
  • Growth of Manufacturing Jobs Under Biden-Harris: 1.07%
  • Trump employment growth: 6.5 million
  • Percent Trump employment growth: 4.3%
  • Biden-Harris employment growth: 2.6 million
  • Percent Biden-Harris employment growth: 1.7%
  • Trump wage gain: 6.46%
  • Biden-Harris wage gain: 5.17%
  • Trump wage gain: 6.54%
  • Biden-Harris wage gain: 0.00%
  • Foreign born population growth under Trump: 2.2%
  • Foreign born population growth under Biden-Harris: 12.6%
  • Foreign-born employment growth under Trump: 7.5%.
  • Foreign-born employment growth under Biden-Harris: 14.2%.
  • Foreign-born workers as a percentage of all U.S. workers under Trump: 17.4%
  • Foreign-born workers as a percentage of all U.S. workers under Biden-Harris: 19.6%
  • Trump average budget deficit 2018-2019: $809 billion
  • Biden-Harris average budget deficit 2022-2023: $1.5 trillion
  • Trump budget deficit as share of GDP in 2018: 3.8%
  • Trump budget deficit as share of GDP in 2019: 4.6%
  • Biden-Harris budget deficit as share of GDP in 2022: 5.3%
  • Biden-Harris budget deficit as share of GDP in 2023: 6.2%
  • Average economic growth in first three years of Trump administration: 2.7%
  • Average economic growth in first three years of Biden-Harris administration: 3.4%
  • Average economic growth under Biden-Harris excluding 2021 pandemic rebound: 2.2%
  • Average return of S&P 500 in first three years of Trump administration: 16.3%
  • Average return of S&P 500 in first three years of Biden-Harris administration: 12.3%
  • Peak 30-year mortgage interest rate under Trump: 4.94%
  • Peak 30-year mortgage interest rate under Biden-Harris: 7.76%

If Vice-President Harris truly cared for the financial well being of American families, she would tell them to vote for President Trump!

The Economic News Is Questionable At Best

On Friday, The Epoch Times posted an article about the latest unemployment numbers. Bidenomics does not seem to be all that it is cracked up to be.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy created fewer jobs than expected while the unemployment rate increased, signaling that the labor market could be going through a rapid deceleration at a time when the Federal Reserve could soon be cutting interest rates.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), there were 114,000 new jobs in July, down from 179,000 in June. This fell short of the consensus estimate of 175,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent, and higher than economists’ expectations of 4.1 percent. This represents the highest jobless rate since October 2021.

Average hourly earnings eased to a smaller-than-expected pace of 3.6 percent year-over-year. On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings edged up 0.2 percent.

The labor force participation rate inched higher to 62.7 percent, from 62.6 percent. Average weekly hours slipped to 34.2, from 34.3.

Health care accounted for much of the jobs, with 55,000 new positions added last month. This was followed by construction (25,000) and government (17,000).

The article also noted:

Additionally, the household portion of the monthly jobs report, which removes duplication, showed the economy created 67,000 new jobs.

The number of people working two or more jobs surged to 8.473 million, up from 8.34 million. Full-time workers advanced by 448,000, while part-time workers declined by 325,000.

The divergence between U.S.-born and foreign-born workers widened compared to a year ago. U.S.-born workers tumbled by more than 1.2 million from July 2023. By comparison, foreign-born workers increased by roughly 1.3 million.

The economy right now has high inflation and wages that are not keeping up with inflation. The easiest way to ease inflation would be to resume domestic drilling and cut federal spending. Both would require the voters to make changes in both the White House and Congress in November.

Replacing The American Worker

On Tuesday, Breitbart posted the following headline:

Analysis: 75% of American Job Growth Has Gone to Migrants Since 2019

That’s NOT good news.

The article reports:

The majority of job growth in the United States since 2019 has gone to newly arrived migrants as working-class American men continue to fall out of the labor force, an analysis shows.

The analysis, published by Steven Camarota at the Center for Immigration Studies, shows the extent to which President Joe Biden’s agenda to grow the labor market with mass immigration — rather than enticing Americans on the sidelines back into work — has been largely executed.

Since 2019, before the Chinese coronavirus pandemic shut down the nation’s economy, about 75 percent of all U.S. job growth has gone to newly arrived migrants, both illegal aliens and legal immigrants.

During the same period, fewer than one million Americans have been added to the workforce.

“The government’s household survey shows that there were only 971,000 more U.S.-born Americans employed in May 2024 compared to May 2019 prior to the pandemic, while the number of employed immigrants has increased by 3.2 million,” Camarota writes.

The article concludes:

For years, Breitbart News has chronicled the decline in labor participation among American men while Biden grows the labor market with primarily newly arrived migrants who are awarded work permits after being released into the U.S. interior.

Since 2023, for instance, nearly 300,000 native-born Americans fell out of the workforce while about 637,000 migrants were added to the workforce.

Biden has helped drive the foreign-born population, thus, more foreign-born workers for hire, to unprecedented heights.

Today, the foreign-born population stands at 51.6 million — the largest ever recorded in American history. Put another way, about three in 19 people living in the U.S. were born in a foreign country.

The only silver lining in this is that if the immigrants are working, hopefully they are not taxing the welfare system.

Behind The Jobs Numbers

On Saturday, Zero Hedge posted an honest analysis of the jobs report that recently came out. It may be the only honest analysis out there. All of us know that the Biden economy is a problem for middle America–food inflation is in double digits, gas prices are lower than they have been but still a dollar or so a gallon more than they were under President Trump, and utility bills have increased dramatically in some places. President Biden may tell us that the economy is wonderful, but many of us living in it are not convinced. Just as an example, the total increase in my husband’s and my Social Security this year (after deducting the cost of Medicare) was about $115. I suspect that a lot of retirees didn’t even see that much of an increase. I can assure you that our grocery bill has gone up more than that.

The article at Zero Hedge is complicated and detailed. I suggest that  you follow the link and read it for yourselves. I will try to highlight some of it.

The article reports:

The headline data was stellar across the board, starting with the unemployment rate which once again failed to rise – denying expectations from “Sahm’s Rule” that a recession may have already started – all the way to average hourly earnings, which unexpectedly spiked from 4.1% (pre-revision) to 4.5%, the highest since last September, and a slap in the face to the Fed’s disinflation narrative…

… or it would be if one didn’t think of checking how the average rose: well, it turns out that, since average hourly earnings is a fraction, it did not rise due to a jump in actual wages but – since it is earnings over a period of time – “rose” because the BLS decided to sharply slash the number of estimated hours that everyone was workingfrom 34.3 to just 34.1, which may not sound like a lot until one realizes that the last time the workweek was this low was when the economy was shut down during covid Excluding the covid lockdowns, one would have to go back to 2010 to find a workweek that was this anemic.

The article concludes:

…Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since July 2018!

This is a huge issue – especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the border – and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened – i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why the Biden admin will do everything in his power to insure there is no official recession before November… and is why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get more and more ridiculous.

The American Employment Situation Under The Biden Administration

It’s hard enough for the average family to deal with the current level of inflation, but there is another factor working against Americans looking for good jobs.

On Friday, Breitbart posted the following headline: “Biden’s Labor Market: 1.9M Fewer Americans Working, 2M Foreign Workers Funneled into U.S. Jobs.”

That is not good news for American workers.

The article reports:

At the end of 2022, 1.9 million fewer Americans were working than in 2019 before the Chinese coronavirus pandemic while President Joe Biden’s administration has funneled two million additional foreign workers into United States jobs.

A new analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) shows that in the fourth quarter of 2022, close to two million fewer native-born Americans were working in jobs compared to the same time in 2019 while two million foreign-born workers have been added to the workforce compared to the same time period.

The thing to keep in mind here is that nothing happens in America without the approval of the uni-party. The uni-party is made up of corporate Republicans looking for cheap labor and Democrats looking for future voters. Bringing in foreign workers who will work for less and who may eventually become citizens satisfies both groups. Does anyone actually believe that if members of Congress wanted to solve the problem of people being imported to take American jobs that it wouldn’t be solved by now? It’s to the uni-party’s advantage to continue with open borders and an immigration policy that benefits those in both parties who want to maintain profits with cheap labor or maintain power with new voters.

The article notesL’

There has been a decades-long decline in the labor force participation rate of the U.S.-born of working-age (16 to 64), from 77.3 percent in 2000 to 73.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022. [Emphasis added]

If the labor force participation rate for the working-age U.S.-born in the fourth quarter of 2022 was what it had been in the fourth quarter of 2000, then 6.4 million more people would be in the labor force. [Emphasis added]

We need to close the southern and northern borders, create a sane immigration policy, and protect American jobs. We were on that path with President Trump. I would like to get back on that path.

Looking Behind The Numbers

On Wednesday, Breitbart posted an article about some of the recent employment numbers.

The article reports:

President Joe Biden’s administration is growing the United States labor market by adding millions of foreign workers for employers to hire, leaving jobless Americans on the sidelines.

Data published in the New York Times shows that the Biden administration is aiding employers by adding millions of foreign workers to the labor force — ensuring wages stay stagnant — even as native-born Americans struggle to get back into jobs since the Chinese coronavirus pandemic.

“The foreign-born workforce grew much more quickly than the U.S.-born workforce, Labor Department figures show,” the Times reports:

When the unemployment rate goes down, you would normally expect wage inflation to go up, but that’s not what’s happening,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. “So there must be something else moving in the labor force, and there is a very likely explanation here that immigrants are coming in and taking jobs.” [Emphasis added]

But despite the resurgence in the foreign-born labor force — about four-fifths of it are people legally allowed to work in the United States, by one calculation — there are bottlenecks. [Emphasis added]

The article includes the following charts:

The article notes:

By focusing on adding foreign workers to the labor market, the Biden administration is ignoring efforts to get native-born Americans back into the workforce. The administration’s foreign competition addition to the labor force adds tremendous weight for the nation’s working and lower-middle class looking to find high-paying jobs with decent benefits packages.

The is the place where the uni-party is revealed. The Democrats want future voters; the country club Republican (the Chamber of Commerce party) want cheap labor for their corporate allies. No one is looking out for the middle class right now. The influx of foreign workers, both legal and illegal, creates downward pressure on wages. Corporations are out to make a profit, and many of those corporations have forgotten their scruples. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is destroying the middle class. Remember, a strong middle class is necessary for the survival and growth of our republic.