Tag Archives: Inflation

What Are You Willing To Believe?

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On Tuesday, The Media Research Center posted an article about a recent statement by Heather Long, a columnist for The Washington Post.

The article reports:

Washington Post columnist Heather Long decided to gaslight voters one more time before they head to the polls to decide who will run the White House for the next four years. “As Election Day arrives, the data is clear: Americans are better off economically than they were four years ago,” read Long’s ridiculous opening paragraph for her Nov. 4 item. She must have realized the insanity of her claim because she then resorted to telling voters they were better off whether they knew it or not: “I understand many people aren’t feeling it because of the inflation hangover that has left prices noticeably higher than they were in 2020. But it’s important to step back and assess the full picture.” It’s as if Long is trying her hardest to channel her inner Paul Krugman. 

The article includes the following screenshot:

The article concludes:

Ah, but how about that sexy stock market, says Long! “The stock market has gained about 75 percent since Oct. 30, 2020. (A record share of Americans — nearly 60 percent of households — have money in the market],” she wrote with glee. Not so fast. As Heritage Foundation Senior Research Associate Alexander Frei noted in an Oct. 31 column, “Inflation is also making stock markets appear stronger than they really are and cutting into returns for everyone, including those with retirement accounts.” In other words, as prices rise, “even significant returns lose their purchasing power.” Frie argued that now “[m]ore money is required to buy the same goods and services, eroding the real value of one’s gains. As everything becomes more expensive, higher earnings or investment returns don’t stretch as far, making it harder to keep up with the true cost of living.”

But Long was adamant that “looking at the full picture shows that most Americans are better off financially than they were four years ago.” But a Sept. 25 analysis by the Financial Health Network determined that “the majority of Americans are not financially healthy, with expenses outpacing income, little wiggle room to protect against financial shocks, and diminished hope for the future.”

Long is clearly trying to attempt a pathetic, last-minute effort to smear as much lipstick on the pig of the Biden-Harris economy as she can before Election Day closes out. She even undercut herself by conceding that most of her points matter “little to voters. And I get it. They are focused on high prices.” Uh, duh? 

The economy is bad. If people vote their pocketbooks, President Trump wins.

Finding Our Way Back

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On Friday, USA Today posted an article about inflation and the impact it has had on the lower and middle classes in America.

The article notes:

Putting “fun” back into low- and middle-income Americans’ budgets could be years away with most of their income barely covering the surge in costs for bare necessities, economists said.

Even with annual inflation last month cooling to the lowest level since February 2021 and wages rising faster than inflation, low- and middle-income Americans are just barely covering their essentials, which include groceries, shelter, utilities and gasoline, economists say.

That’s because when inflation slows, it only means prices aren’t rising as quickly, not that prices are declining. So, Americans continue to pay higher prices for everyday needs.

Low- and middle-income Americans were hit disproportionately harder than their higher-income peers because essentials account for a larger share of their budgets, and their discretionary spending, or spending on nonessential items like dining out, vacations and entertainment, is only just recovering, economists say.

…Middle-income Americans’ purchasing power, after being sharply eroded during the 2021-2022 inflation shock, just recently moved above 2019 levels, according to the monthly Primerica Household Budget Index (HBI). HBI assesses whether families can get ahead financially or if they may fall behind based on the affordability of everyday necessities needed to manage their homes and changes in their earned income.

…Air conditioning, watering the garden and visiting family were “luxuries” Amy Aaroen, 63, cut back on last summer.

The article asks the question:

Will upcoming holiday spending be affected?

Low and middle-income consumers will probably still be bargain-hunting this holiday season, analysts said.

“We are continuing to see inflation’s impact on the middle-class consumer,” said Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance. “Discretionary spending on larger ticket items is down, which could indicate holiday budgets may tighten, and certain consumers might even trade down on items, with many actively looking for bargains.”

Aaroen says that through belt-tightening during the year, “we’ve somehow managed to keep a budget that will probably not affect our coming holidays too much. We have 11 grandchildren and usually spend $25 to $30 on each of them. And we will probably this year as well. We may need to use the credit card though.”

And “yes, we will definitely see family for the holidays,” she said. “But not as often in between.”

Elections have consequences. If you want four more years of inflation and increased government spending, vote for Kamala Harris.

How To Get The Job Done

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On Friday, Breitbart posted an article about the inflation rate in Argentina since President Javier Milei took office.

The article reports:

The National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC) announced on Thursday that the country’s inflation rate for September was 3.5 percent.

September’s result marks the lowest inflation rate recorded in Argentina since November 2021 and is the result of President Javier Milei’s “shock therapy” economic measures that have steadily reduced inflation from 25.5 percent at the time he took office in December 2023 to September’s 3.5 percent.

Milei’s policies aim to overturn Argentina’s years-long economic crisis exacerbated under leftist governments, which dramatically worsened during the administration of Milei’s predecessor, socialist former President Alberto Fernández (2019-2023).

The article concludes:

Milei has insisted that his “zero deficit” fiscal goals for Argentina are “non-negotiable,” a pursuit he reiterated last week when he vetoed a university financing bill that the government branded as “irresponsible” and a danger to the nation’s fiscal balance. Milei reaffirmed that he would veto any bill that infringes upon fiscal balance. The veto was upheld by the Argentine Congress on Wednesday.

Milei’s policies, in addition to steadily reducing inflation over the past nine months from 25.5 percent in December 2023 to 3.5 percent in September, also allowed Argentina to experience its first Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surplus since 2008, overturning a 15 percent GDP deficit that the country faced at the time he took office in December.

America could learn a lot from what is happening in Argentina!

Conservative Replies to Debate Questions

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Author: R. Alan Harrop, Ph.D.

I watched the Vice President candidate’s debate the other night and thought that J.D. Vance did a good job. The following are my answers to some of the critical issues that were raised in the debate.

Climate Change. The climate constantly changes. Always has; always will. The idea that the recent destructive hurricane, Helene, was caused by man-made climate change is pure ignorance and typical of the environmental extremists. Severe hurricanes have occurred as far back as records have been kept–long before man’s burning of fossil fuels could have caused them. The Left continues to spout the idea that man-made climate change is “settled science” when it is not. This allows them to justify ruining our energy production.

Green Energy. The Democrat agenda is to spend more of our taxpayer money on solar and wind projects purchased from China, and importantly, to mandate electric vehicles. Meanwhile, China is building a new coal fired plant about every month and using coal that we ship to them. As Europe has found out, no modern civilization can exist on wind and solar. We need more access to fossil fuels and to start building nuclear plants which the environmental extremists are blocking.

Open Borders. The Democrats want open borders in order to get more voters who will support their socialist agenda. They give illegals free housing, food, cell phones and healthcare and will, if allowed, grant them citizenship so they can vote. They realize that they are losing support from working class Americans, blacks, and Hispanics because of their harmful policies and need to replace these voters. Biden/Harris have had the ability to close the borders just as Donald Trump was able to do. THEY WANT OPEN BORDERS!

Housing Costs. The cost of new homes is up over 30% since Biden/Harris took office. Their reckless government spending caused the highest inflation in 40 years. Soaring fuel prices have increase the production cost and shipping cost of all building materials. Inflation caused a surge in mortgage rates from 3% under Trump to over 7% under Biden/Harris. Their solution–to start another big government program of taking money from working Americans and give it to first time home buyers.

Abortion. There is nothing in the Constitution that addresses abortion as a right. In fact, the Constitution specifically states that if an issue is not specified as the responsibility of the federal government then it must be left to the states. That is exactly what the Supreme Court’s ruling against Roe vs Wade rightfully concluded. The Democrats do not want to follow the Constitution–they want a federal law on abortion. Kamala Harris has promised to remove the filibuster rule and pack the court in order to accomplish this objective. They also want to avoid the reality that terminating a child that can live on its own with proper medical care, is not murder.

As in any debate, there are important issues that were not addressed. For example, the increasing crime rates and the destruction of our cities by failing to enforce the law. Anyone want to visit San Francisco? I do not. Recent reports show that due to the Biden/Harris open border policy, 425,000 criminals, 13,000 convicted murderers, and 16,000 sexual assault offenders were released into this country. The Democrats abuse of the law to go after their political opponents should alarm all Americans. No president has ever been indicted while in office or out of office other than President Trump. Yet, they continue to say that he is the threat to democracy when they are the real threat!

Let’s face reality. Harris/Walz are the most radical socialists ever to run for president and vice president. Their policies will make America a weak, failing, socialist country. Choice: big government socialism or traditional American free enterprise and individual freedom. Easy decision actually.

The Cost Of Bidenomics

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On Monday, The Daily Signal posted an article that provides some insight into the actual state of the American economy.

The article reports:

Small-business bankruptcies are up 61% on the year. It is a cackle-nomics miracle.

The data comes from bankruptcy analyst Epiq, which reports that commercial filings for Chapter 11 bankruptcies soared to 4,553 so far this year.

Meanwhile, total corporate bankruptcies are also rising, hitting the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, which is hitting especially hard in retail, with a parade of chains going under this year, including Red Lobster and its beloved endless shrimp. Never forget what they have taken from us.

What’s causing it? Simple: Inflation, high interest costs, and COVID-19 loans.

Inflation, of course, drives up business costs to the point they have to hike prices, which chases consumers out.

High interest rates are well-known to strangle business. In fact, that’s why the Fed does them, to strangle household spending enough that federal spending has inflation all to itself.

And then the COVID-19 loans: During the pandemic, the Small Business Administration pumped out 4 million loans—worth about $380 billion—in so-called economic-injury disaster loans. Note these were separate from the Paycheck Protection Program loans, where $800 billion were handed out to bribe voters into lockdowns.

While many of the PPP loans were fraudulent—actually, most of them, according to NPR—96% of those loans were forgiven.

Incidentally, one gang member recently killed in a Baltimore shootout had, it turned out, an outstanding PPP loan for a nanotech company. Not a joke.

Thing is, those $380 billion in injury loans actually do have to be paid back.

And it turns out a lot of companies can’t. Eighty percent are still outstanding—$300 billion—so, we’re probably just seeing the tip of the injury-loan bankruptcies.

As Tim Walz stated at a recent Pennsylvania rally, “We can’t afford four more years of this!”

Please follow the link above for further details.

The New Jobs Report

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On Friday, The Epoch Times posted an article about the latest jobs report. The economy is cooling down, which will probably provide the Federal Reserve with an excuse to lower interest rates in the hope of providing a Democrat election victory.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy created fewer jobs than the market projected in August as the overheated labor market of the past few years continues to show signs of cooling off.

Last month, payrolls increased by 142,000, falling short of the consensus estimate of 160,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The unemployment rate eased to 4.2 percent, down from 4.3 percent in July. This was in line with economists’ expectations.

Average hourly wages surged at a higher-than-expected pace of 0.7 percent, up from a 0.1 percent drop in July—this was revised from the initial report of 0.2 percent growth. Average hourly earnings also climbed to a better-than-expected year-over-year rate of 3.8 percent, up from 3.6 percent.

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7 percent. Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.3 from 34.2.

Much of the job creation was concentrated in construction (34,000), health care (31,000), government (24,000), and social assistance (13,000).

There were some other interesting numbers in the report:

So far this year, the total number of downward job revisions equals 372,000.

The number of people working two or more jobs increased by 65,000 to 8.538 million.

In August, full-time jobs plummeted by more than 400,000, and part-time employment increased by 527,000.

Inflation is hurting all Americans, and until the government stops its runaway spending, inflation will continue to be a problem.

 

 

This Won’t Be A Surprise To Most Americans

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On Wednesday, The Daily Caller posted an article about the Biden administrations’ reporting of the jobs reporting during the past year or so.

The article reports:

The federal government overestimated the number of jobs in the U.S. economy by 818,000 between April 2023 and March 2024, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday, stoking fears of a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Economists at Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo anticipated the government had overestimated job growth by at least 600,000 in that span, while economists at JPMorgan Chase had predicted a lesser decline of 360,000, according to Bloomberg. The downward revision follows a trend of the BLS overestimating the number of nonfarm payroll jobs added, with the cumulative number of new jobs reported in 2023 roughly 1.3 million less than previously thought as of February 2024

The article concludes:

Wednesday’s downward revision has also heightened concern that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to begin cutting interest rates, Bloomberg reported. If the FOMC hesitates to cut rates for too long, it could result in recession instead of a soft landing — an economic slowdown in which inflation is brought down without causing recession.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to hold its target federal funds rate between 5.25% and 5.50% in July, marking the eighth meeting in a row the FOMC has decided to keep rates at their current 23-year high.

“Wall Street is increasingly waking up to the fact that the economy post-covid has never been as good as the government bean counters claimed, and a recession may have already begun,” Antoni told the DCNF. “These revisions are a violent shove in the direction of reality.”

The economic rebound has been slowed by government policies that are not totally related to interest rates. Government regulation and tax policy play a big role in America\s economy. If a Democrat is elected President in November, you will see tax rates skyrocket and the economy stumble.

When Is Eliminating Taxes On Tips Bad?

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Recently Kamala Harris has stated in a campaign speech that she would like to eliminate income taxes on tips. That’s interesting. According to an article in Breitbart posted on Sunday, in 2022 she cast the deciding vote to allow the IRS to track down workers’ tips so that they could be taxed. That provision was part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Among other things, that bill provided $80 billion in additional funding to the IRS. The Senate voted 50-50 to approve the bill, and Kamala Harris cast the deciding vote.

On Monday, Breitbart posted an article reporting the following:

In a stunning display of hypocrisy and double standards, CBS News attacked former President Donald Trump when he announced his “no tax on tips” policy proposal in June and then suddenly became uncritical of the idea when Vice President Kamala Harris copied Trump on Saturday.

“Vice President Kamala Harris is rolling out a new policy position, saying she’ll fight to end taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers,” CBS announced in a Monday X post.

When President Trump proposed the idea, CBS immediately claimed that it would cost the federal government up to $250 billion over 10 years. Now that Kamala Harris has proposed it, there is no mention of the cost.

This is how the mainstream media works.

The Economic News Is Questionable At Best

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On Friday, The Epoch Times posted an article about the latest unemployment numbers. Bidenomics does not seem to be all that it is cracked up to be.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy created fewer jobs than expected while the unemployment rate increased, signaling that the labor market could be going through a rapid deceleration at a time when the Federal Reserve could soon be cutting interest rates.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), there were 114,000 new jobs in July, down from 179,000 in June. This fell short of the consensus estimate of 175,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent, and higher than economists’ expectations of 4.1 percent. This represents the highest jobless rate since October 2021.

Average hourly earnings eased to a smaller-than-expected pace of 3.6 percent year-over-year. On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings edged up 0.2 percent.

The labor force participation rate inched higher to 62.7 percent, from 62.6 percent. Average weekly hours slipped to 34.2, from 34.3.

Health care accounted for much of the jobs, with 55,000 new positions added last month. This was followed by construction (25,000) and government (17,000).

The article also noted:

Additionally, the household portion of the monthly jobs report, which removes duplication, showed the economy created 67,000 new jobs.

The number of people working two or more jobs surged to 8.473 million, up from 8.34 million. Full-time workers advanced by 448,000, while part-time workers declined by 325,000.

The divergence between U.S.-born and foreign-born workers widened compared to a year ago. U.S.-born workers tumbled by more than 1.2 million from July 2023. By comparison, foreign-born workers increased by roughly 1.3 million.

The economy right now has high inflation and wages that are not keeping up with inflation. The easiest way to ease inflation would be to resume domestic drilling and cut federal spending. Both would require the voters to make changes in both the White House and Congress in November.

Rewriting History

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On Tuesday, Newsbusters posted an article about the spin the mainstream media is putting out about President Biden dropping out of the presidential campaign.

The article notes that CBS’s Mark Strassman is comparing President Biden to Lyndon Johnson in his decision to step aside. I don’t mean to nitpick here, but I am not convinced President Biden willingly made the decision to step aside. I think there was a “Godfather” moment with Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama that was the culmination of the effort to remove him from the campaign. Much of America was shocked when they watched the June debate. I don’t think the Democrat leaders were. I think they put President Biden out there because his poll numbers had been consistently low, and it was a step down the path to removing  him from the campaign. He has now removed himself from the campaign. It is also odd that he has not made any sort of appearance in a number of days.

The article reports:

We were told that Biden is stepping down due to bad polling, proof evident that he had no path to victory in 2024. But now we are getting a sliver of an admission that health was always a concern. The media are slowly circling back to what everyone else already knew to be true.

Of course, the big rewrite of history here is that Biden is somehow walking away from a second term in a patriotic exercise. This isn’t the case, either.

The truth is that Biden was pushed out of the race by his own party due to the aforementioned bad polling after the disastrous June 20th debate, which exposed the cognitive decline that people talked about for so long but never drew coverage in the media.

I don’t think history will look upon the Biden administration favorably. When President Biden came into office, inflation was low, the economy was rebounding, and the border was relatively secure. Four years later none of that is still true.

How Much Is The Biden Presidency Costing Americans?

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On Tuesday, PJ Media posted an article about the impact of the Biden administration’s economic policies on Americans.

The article reports:

Thank to Joe Biden-flation and his catastrophic economic policies, American families are spending over $11,000 more annually just for necessities.

The obscene cost of inflation is hitting hardworking Americans, as overall prices have gone up almost 20% since the Meanderer-in-Chief came into office in 2021. Americans can thank the Biden administration for that $11,400 extra for necessities, about 20% of the average U.S. annual salary. And if you hear the lie that inflation is down, don’t believe it. All that means is that the inflation rate is allegedly slowing, and the Biden administration loves to engage in monkey business to manipulate such statistics.

As Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) posted last week, “Inflation is still ~50% higher than the targeted rate. Biden’s inflation is far from over.” Unfortunately, he’s right.

Grocery and energy costs have, of course, gone up drastically under Biden, as the Washington Examiner reported. Gas is 33% more expensive than at the start of 2021 and electricity prices increased 29%. But groceries have, perhaps, seen the most staggering increase:

Grocery staples such as cheese, eggs, meat, and fruits and vegetables have all seen significant price increases, with ground beef as much as 103% higher.

Because inflation persists and prices continue to climb, it’s getting harder and harder to make ends meet. Biden wants you to believe the government can spend its way to prosperity — which is good for the government but not so for the rest of us.

The Biden administration continues to lie about inflation, but most Americans believe what they see rather than what the Biden administration tells them.

The Rest Of The Story On Inflation

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On Friday, the Associated Press posted an article about the current state of inflation.

The article reports:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Wholesale prices in the United States rose by a larger-than-expected 2.6% last month from a year earlier, a sign that some inflation pressures remain high.

The increase, the sharpest year-over-year increase since March 2023, comes at a time when other price indicators are showing that inflation has continued to ease.

The Labor Department said Friday that its producer price index — which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers — rose 0.2% from May to June after being unchanged the month before. Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to bounce around from month to month, so-called core wholesale prices increased 0.4% from May and 3% from June 2023.

The increase in wholesale inflation last month was driven by a sizable 0.6% rise in services prices, led by higher profit margins for machinery and auto wholesalers.

By contrast, the overall prices of goods fell 0.5%. Gasoline prices tumbled 5.8% at the wholesale level. Food prices also dropped.

The producer price index can provide an early sign of where consumer inflation is headed. Economists also watch it because some of its components, notably healthcare and financial services, flow into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index.

Most of the media reported that inflation was slowing based on the producer price index. That number was used to fuel speculation of a federal reserve rate decrease by the end of the year. That likely caused the bump in the stock market yesterday. It’s nice to celebrate a drop in food as fuel prices, but where are they in comparison to where they were four years ago? The Biden administration is hoping you won’t remember.

Bidenomics or Badonomics?

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Author:  R. Alan Harrop,Ph.D     harropcrew1@gmail.com 

Biden keeps saying that his economic plan is working for the American people. Is his so-called Bidenomics good or bad for the country? Let’s take a look at the truth; something the Biden regime seems allergic to.    

Inflation is a hidden tax that never is reversed. It may slow down, but short of an economic collapse, prices will not go down and we will always have some inflation. When Biden took office, the annual inflation rate was 1.2%.  Now it is about 10%.   This rate, however, does not reflect the actual increase in prices since 2020. Food has gone up close to 80% as any food shopper can tell you. Gasoline is up from $1.87 per gallon to $3.45 per gallon which is an 85% increase. These are essential expenses that are not included in the government’s Consumer Price Index and therefore make this estimate of inflation unreliable. Housing, which we all must have, has gone up dramatically. The cost of the average home has gone up 47% since 2020 which is unheard of. Rents are up an average of 26% over the same period. Most importantly, mortgage interest rates essentially doubled to 7%, which represents an increase in monthly payments of about $1200 for the average home purchase. Insurance has also gone up substantially for automobiles and homes (30%). Utility Costs have also increased significantly since they are up about 30%. None of these items are optional and cannot be avoided. Other items like cars, appliances, clothing, etc. are also up substantially. Who is hurt the most by these increases? Well of course, the average American not the Democrat elite. 

As a result of these increases, the average family has experienced an $8,500  annual reduction in their purchasing power and standard of living. But according to Biden, his economic plans are working and you are just too blind to see it!  You are being gas lighted. 

What has caused this destructive inflation?  Excessive government spending and printing paper money is the primary cause. However, the war against fossil fuels and excessive government subsidies for so-called green energy projects are also major contributors. All of these things are part of the Marxist agenda of the Biden regime that is out to destroy this country. 

This situation threatens the traditional American Dream. This is especially true for younger Americans. There was a time when young married couples could afford to buy a new home and begin the journey to financial security and wealth. The equity in a home is the bedrock of financial security and the American Dream.  With the dramatic increase in home prices, mortgage rates, and home insurance, young people can no longer afford to buy and must resort to paying rent.  Not a good thing to do in the long run. 

So, we are back to President Reagan’s question, “ Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” The answer is a no-brainer. You know what to do. 

 

The Problem Really Isn’t President Biden

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On Friday, The Federalist posted an article reminding us that the inflation, lack of border security, and rising crime rates are not solely the responsibility of President Biden. President Biden represents (and his policies represent) the platform of a particular political party.

The article notes:

CNN spent the hour after Thursday’s presidential debate in an emotional tailspin. But at the heart of their desperate “analysis” was speculation about whether the fumbling Biden should step down to let another Democrat jump in to carry the torch of “DEMOCRACY.”

The jig is up. Here’s what disillusioned Democrats and independents and moderates need to know. What all the blue-state refugees who now live in Texas and Florida instead of California and New York City need to admit. What all the fed-up middle-class families and forgotten nonwhite voters in the suburbs need to remember: These aren’t just Joe Biden policies that are disastrous. They’re Democrat policies.

Abortion. Economy. Crime. Immigration. Lawfare. Foreign policy. Health care. It doesn’t matter what pet issue has voters down in the dumps. Democrats are in lockstep on the losing side. And anywhere they aren’t in lockstep — like on whether Israel is a victim of terrorism or a group of oppressive “colonizers” — they tow the radical line.

The article concludes:

And our two-tiered system of justice — led by the deep state, rogue state prosecutors, and a leftist executive — wouldn’t stop just because Biden isn’t on the ticket. The same people who raided the homes of pro-lifers while seeking immunity for the Biden family; prosecuted one man for “classified documents” while letting other worse offenders go free; and made up novel legal theories and new statutes of limitations to gag, fine, and ultimately imprison their chief political opponent are beholden to a party, not just the sitting president.

So when the Democrat armchair class suddenly gets weepy about Biden’s decline, saying Democrats “‘HAVE A PROBLEM’ AFTER BIDEN’S DEBATE PERFORMANCE,” don’t buy the spin that a shiny new Democrat could bail America out.

It isn’t just Biden that’s ruined America. It’s his party.

It’s very easy to focus on personalities instead of party platforms. I suggest that voters read each party’s platform before they vote. Which platform best represents your views? The answer to that question is as important as the individual candidate.

What A Difference An Election Made

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On Monday, Breitbart posted the following headline:

Argentina Logs First Week with No Inflation in Food Prices in 30 Years

This is one of many positive results of the election of President Javier Milei, who began his term as President in December 2023.

The article reports:

A study published on Sunday by Econométrica, a private Argentine consulting firm, first reported the no-inflation week. In its study, Econométrica analyzed 8,000 prices in local online supermarkets and found no change when compared to the preceding week — something that has not happened in Argentina in three decades. In addition to the lack of variation in prices in one week, the study found that the prices of food and drinks only experienced an increase of 0.1 percent in the past 15 days.

…Upon taking office in December, Milei enacted a series of “shock therapy” economic policies to restore Argentina’s economy after nearly two decades of socialist rule left it in a precarious state and on the verge of a hyperinflation spiral.

Since then, monthly inflation rates in Argentina have experienced a dramatic and continued downward trend, going from 25.5 percent in December to 4.2 percent in May, the lowest rate experienced in the country in over two years. In April, Argentina recorded a surplus of its gross domestic product (GDP) during the first quarter of the year — something that the South American nation had not seen since 2008.

Milei is in the Czech Republic on the final stop of a four-day tour of Europe that began on Friday with a visit to Spain, followed by a two-day stop in Germany over the weekend that included an encounter with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Milei is slated to meet with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala on Monday morning.

The article concludes:

Milei also confirmed that his administration would not promote a devaluation of the Argentine peso, echoing statements by Economy Minister Luis Caputo last week where he ruled out such plans. Caputo instead said he would continue implementing the current plan, which focuses on maintaining a good relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and upholding a currency exchange system that allows companies to sell 20 percent of their income in U.S. dollars in the financial market and settle the remaining 80 percent at the official exchange rate.

“There are professionals who, in order to justify and wash their mistakes, make unfortunate arguments, which speak more about what they want to happen than what really has to happen,” Milei said. “There are sectors that find it convenient to have low dollar salaries and more poor and indigent people, and we believe that the situation works in a different way.”

This could happen in America with the proper election results.

The Choice Is Between Bad And Awful

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On Wednesday, Armstrong Economics posted an article about inflation and recession.

The article reports:

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has advised against anticipating near-term rate cuts. While speaking to the Financial Times, the Fed president stated that people would simply prefer a recession to continued inflation.

“I have learned that the American people—and maybe people in Europe equally—really hate high inflation. I mean, really viscerally hate high inflation,” he told the Financial Times’ The Economics Show podcast. Kashkari is speaking as if we are not already in a recession. It is not difficult to understand the “visceral” hatred people around the world feel toward rising prices. The effects of inflation are felt with every purchase, causing the average person to adjust their entire lifestyle.

The article concludes:

Real prices have far surpassed anything they calculate in CPI. Everyone understands that prices have risen far more than the arbitrary number the Fed provides us. Taxes are continually increasing for everyone in every tax bracket. The government not only adds to inflationary issues with their spending but then expects their citizens to foot a portion of the bill with taxes, which will simply never be enough.

Then we have Washington telling the masses to blame corporations for price gouging while raising their taxes and making it increasingly difficult to conduct business and maintain a large workforce. It is not that the people would prefer to be in a recession, the real issue is that countless people are entering survival mode. People everywhere want to hold onto whatever they may have out of fear for the future, but they are unable even to hoard as real prices now demand they hand over whatever they have to maintain their lives.

In a recession, consumer spending drops, and people lose their jobs. A service economy such as the one America currently has is more vulnerable to recession than a manufacturing economy. A recession creates hardship for working families.Inflation impacts both working families and retirees. Either one is a bad deal. The most practical way to deal with inflation in America would be to cut government spending and to resume domestic oil production. Both of those things would help revive a miserable economy.

A Study in Entropy

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Entropy is defined as the trend of the universe toward disorder. Entropy is illustrated by what happens to a farmer’s field if he ignores it for a few years. It is also what happens to a tractor or wagon that is left out in a field unattended. Crops do not automatically grow in straight lines, and weeds do not pick themselves. It is not a good idea to let children raise themselves. It takes human effort to keep things moving forward.

Does entropy apply to nations? If freedom and liberty are not carefully nurtured, do they degrade? If the culture is not properly guarded and maintained, does it degrade into unhealthy places?

Recently there was something of an uproar about a commencement speech given by a National Football League player. In his speech, Harrison Butker praised the virtues of motherhood. He praised his wife for the role her support has played in his success. He stated that many of the women in the audience that day will eventually become mothers. They will struggle with balancing their roles as wives, mothers, and corporate employees. All those roles are important, but has our culture devalued the role of wife and mother? A poem by William Ross Wallace states, “The Hand That Rocks the Cradle Is the Hand That Rules the World.” In the past, children learned basic foundational things from their mothers—baking cookies, shopping, language skills and values. In a world where career is valued over motherhood, children may or may not learn these things at daycare. There is nothing wrong with daycare, but I can guarantee that a child’s daycare provider does not love the child the way his/her mother does. I understand that in today’s economy staying home with your children is something of a luxury, but it can be done. Is devaluing motherhood a step forward or a step backward?

The speech given by Harrison Butker would have merely been a statement of the obvious in 1970. What changed?

The programs of the Great Society and the War on Poverty came into their own in the 1970’s. In 1965, “The Negro Family: The Case for National Action, the Moynihan Report,” was written by Daniel Patrick Moynihan. He warned against the collapse of the black family unit, noting a rise in single-parent families. The Great Society programs exacerbated that problem by making payments to women only if there was not a man living in the house. The destruction those programs created in the black population later spread to the white population. The 1970’s also gave rise to the Feminist movement and created what was then the cottage industry of daycare—now a billion-dollar industry. This further weakened the family structure—the foundation of a healthy society.

The overspending of the 1960’s and 1970’s and beyond created an inflationary cycle that forced many women into the workforce. One positive aspect of this is that educational and professional opportunities for women increased. That at least was a positive thing.

Is America now experiencing a state of entropy? How many Americans voted in the last primary election? How many Americans voted in the last Presidential election? Are you willing to take an active role in your government? What impact will the dramatic increase in population from places that do not share our culture have on our own already degrading culture?

If Americans want to save our country from entropy, they need to stand up and fight for the values and culture that made this country great. If we do not do that soon, we will go the way of Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome.

The Root Causes Of The Current Inflation

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On Wednesday, Breitbart posted an article about the cause of the level of inflation Americans are currently dealing with.

The article quotes Neel Kashkari, who runs the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

The article reports:

Surging immigration is keeping inflation and interest rates high, Fed honcho Neel Kashkari said in an interview with the Telegraph.

Kashkari, who runs the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said he’s not ready to consider cutting rates until he sees “several months of real progress on inflation.” The flood of immigrants, he argued, is hindering that progress.

U.S. borrowing costs are likely to stay put for “an extended period of time,” Kashkari warned.

He’s particularly freaked out by the booming demand for housing, which just won’t cool off despite sky-high rates.

Kashkari’s immigration bombshell runs directly contrary to the claims by the Biden administration and its allies that surging immigration is keeping down inflation by depressing wages.

Kashkari said that “dramatic increase in immigration” is boosting housing demand. More people working from home and years of underbuilding aren’t helping either. It’s a perfect storm that’s keeping the housing market red-hot.

The article concludes:

He (Kashkari) also noted that services inflation had been “much stickier” in the past few months, making it even tougher to justify rate cuts.

“In the second half of last year, we saw very rapid disinflationary progress, and that was comforting for all of us because the economy was strong and inflation was falling quickly. I expected and hoped that that was going to continue in the first quarter of this year [but] inflation has more or less moved sideways,” Kashkari said.

Like other Fed officials, Kashkari said he needs solid proof that inflation is heading back to 2 percent before he’s comfortable with rate cuts.

“I want to see evidence that inflation is headed well back down towards the 2 percent target. I’m not saying that we have to get all the way back down to 2 percent before we start cutting, but I need to be convinced that that’s where we’re headed before I would be comfortable normalizing interest rates,” he said.

Rate cuts could result in people feeling better about the economy (a good thing in an election year), but they could also create even more inflation.

 

Does Anyone On The Political Left Go Grocery Shopping Or Buy Gasoline?

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On Thursday, BizPacReview posted an article about the mainstream media’s spin on America’s current economy. If it were not sad, it would be funny.

The article reports:

MSNBC host Stephanie Ruhle is telling Americans not to believe their lying eyes, that President Biden’s economy is fantastic and they are better off economically than they mistakenly believe.

The condescension and gaslighting have kicked into full gear as the presidential election nears. Despite Americans struggling to put food on the table, a roof over their heads, and clothes on their children’s backs, Ruhle is telling them they are basically dimwitted and don’t appreciate how good they have it.

“We need an economic explainer,” Ruhle told the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee. “People are confused, they’re exhausted, but they’re also doing quite well.”

“Ruhle, who hosts MSNBC’s ‘The Eleventh Hour,’ had been discussing a recent Federal Reserve report that ‘shows people are still struggling to cover day-to-day expenses, even as inflation has slowed.’ She noted how some major brands are responding by enticing consumers with slashed prices, ‘Target says it is cutting prices on 5,000 essential items, things like milk, butter, pet food. Wendy’s is now offering a $3 breakfast deal. And rivals like McDonald’s are offering new lower-priced value meals,’” Fox Business reported.

The article includes the following screenshot:

This is not the result of corporate greed as President Biden likes to claim–it is the result of companies trying to stay in business after their operating costs skyrocket. Anyone who eats and drives knows that we were much better off four years ago. The problem with inflation is that prices very rarely go back down to where they were.

What Four More Years Of Bidenomics Would Look Like

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On May 14th (sometimes it takes me a while to get to things), Stephen Moore posted an article at BizPac Review detailing some of the economic plans the Biden administration has if they win the election in November. If you like trying to stretch your dollar because of inflation, you will love the new challenges.

The article reports some of the plans:

1. Tax rates on investment up to 70%.

2. $2 trillion in new debt spending.

3. A “net zero” energy policy eliminating production of nearly all our abundant fossil fuels.

4. An end to state “right-to-work” laws in 26 states.

5. The antitrust assault against Silicon Valley and corporate mergers ramps up.

The article also concludes:

There is more to worry about under Bidenomics in a second term. One worry is that Dems will agree to eliminate checks and balances in our system of government by overturning the filibuster rule of at least 60 votes in the Senate to pass legislation. Another concern is that Dems will lock in their electoral strength by making Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico states to add four more Democratic senators. Remember Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of Pennsylvania heroically voted to save the filibuster — but they won’t be around in January 2025 to stop the court packing.

Could American businesses and families survive getting smashed by these gale-force winds of another Bidenomics hurricane in 2025 without capsizing the ship of state? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Stephen Moore is a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a senior economic advisor to Donald Trump. His latest book is: “Govzilla: How the Relentless Growth of Government Is Devouring Our Economy.”

Your vote counts. We need enough votes against Joe Biden to overcome the fraud that is already being planned.

April Inflation Statistics

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On Tuesday, CNN reported that according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday inflation in April was the highest it has been all year.

The article reports:

Wholesale inflation picked up in April to its highest rate in a year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday.

The Producer Price Index, which measures the change in prices that manufacturers pay to suppliers, was 2.2% for the 12 months ended in April, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday.

That gain is higher than what was seen in March, which was downwardly revised from 2.1% to 1.8%.

On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5%, a faster pace than March’s 0.1% loss (also downwardly revised) and ran much hotter than what economists had anticipated. Economists were expecting a monthly gain of 0.3%, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

“The concern here is that we now have a trend, an upward trend in producer prices, which can only be passed through to consumers and result in upward pressure on consumer price inflation over the coming months,” Kurt Rankin, senior economist for the PNC Financial Services Group, told CNN in an interview.

And that means interest rates will stay higher for longer and could further delay the Federal Reserve’s plans for cuts on that front, he said.

…While higher energy costs (up 2% in April) helped to push goods prices higher, services inflation is what drove up the overall PPI last month. Nearly three-quarters of the April monthly gain was attributable to price hikes seen by producers of services, according to the report.

Services providers saw a 0.6% increase in prices for the month, the fastest pace seen for that category since March 2022, Rankin noted.

“Services has been the issue over the past year as consumers continue to spend money, and costs for services-oriented businesses is still stronger than goods inflation; but goods producer prices are now also rising after having fallen through most of 2023,” he said.

This is bad news for consumers and also bad news for the Biden administration that wants to get re-elected in November. The promise of cutting the interest rate before the election to bring consumer costs down will not be kept if inflation continues on its current path.

Regulations Matter

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On Thursday, Issues & Insights posted an article about the regulatory nightmare that is being created by the Biden administration.

The article reports:

Just after Ronald Reagan won the presidential election in November 1980, economic adviser David Stockman wrote a memo warning the president-elect that he faced an “economic Dunkirk” thanks to the disastrous economy he was inheriting.

Among Stockman’s warnings was that the Carter administration had set a “ticking regulatory time bomb” that would blow up the economy.

“They have spent the past four years ‘tooling up’ for implementation through a mind-boggling outpouring of rulemakings, interpretative guidelines, and major litigation – all heavily biased toward maximization of regulatory scope and burden,” Stockman wrote.

Stockman – who would later serve as head of the Office of Management and Budget and ended up losing Reagan’s trust – had that part wrong. While Carter was a disaster as president, at least he showed an ability to learn on the job. And so late in his term, Carter embarked on a deregulatory campaign to fight inflation. Among other things, he freed the trucking and airline industries from onerous government mandates.

“Carter gave Reagan the phenomenal gift of deregulation. Combined with the (Reagan) tax cuts that largely took effect in 1983, the economy went on a growth tear,” wrote Brian Domitrovic, a scholar at the Laffer Center, in Forbes. “All the capital that Reagan freed up via his tax cuts found room to roam in the deregulated world which Carter had set up.”

Unfortunately the Biden administration has not studied the lessons of history. The article lists some of the regulations the Biden administration has put in place:

  • Force car owners into inconvenient, expensive, range-deficient EVs.
  • Impose emission standards on large trucks that, the industry says, will be “the most challenging, costly and potentially disruptive heavy-duty emissions rule in history.”
  • Sharply raise the cost of drilling for oil and gas on public lands and raise the cost of water.
  • Make it nearly impossible to get permits to expand or build new facilities in most areas of the country without violating impossibly strict clean-air standards.

The article concludes:

In his 1980 memo, Stockman said avoiding an economic Dunkirk required “an initial administration economic program that is so bold, sweeping, and sustained that it totally dominates the Washington agenda (and) holds promise of propelling the economy into vigorous expansion and the financial markets into a bullish psychology.”

Reagan delivered.

It will take even greater levels of boldness today. And while there is hope for such a comprehensive program under the return of Donald Trump, if Biden wins in November there will be no rescuing the economy this time.

Deregulation will be one of the keys to reviving the struggling economy. Despite the fact that the Biden administration keeps telling us that the economy is strong, people are working two jobs to keep up with inflation, there are layoffs in a number of industries, and high interest rates are making it very difficult for new home owners to afford a home.

The March Inflation Numbers

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On Wednesday, MSNBC posted the March Inflation Numbers. As any consumer can tell you, inflation is still and issue.

The article reports:

  • The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, rose 3.5% in March, higher than expectations and marking an acceleration for inflation.
  • Shelter and energy costs drove the increase. Energy rose 1.1% after increasing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs were higher by 0.4% on the month and up 5.7% from a year ago.
  • Following the report, traders pushed the first expected rate cut out to September, according to CME Group calculations.

The article notes:

Stocks slumped after the report while Treasury yields spiked higher.

Shelter and energy costs drove the increase on the all-items index.

Energy rose 1.1% after climbing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, were higher by 0.4% on the month and up 5.7% from a year ago. Expectations for shelter-related costs to decelerate through the year have been central to the Fed’s thesis that inflation will cool enough to allow for interest rate cuts.

Food prices increased just 0.1% on the month and were up 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. There were some big gains within the food category, however.

The measure for meat, fish, poultry and eggs climbed 0.9%, pushed by a 4.6% jump in egg prices. Butter fell 5% and cereal and bakery products declined by 0.9%. Food away from home increased 0.3%.

Elsewhere, used vehicle prices fell 1.1% and medical care services prices rose 0.6%.

The past three years or so have not been a good time for most Americans. Inflation has increased the cost of simply maintaining an average lifestyle. It will be interesting to see if inflation can be brought under control by November and if people will vote their pocketbooks.

Cooking The Books

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The Biden administration claims that the economy is really doing well. Some of us who buy gasoline or shop at grocery stores might not agree with that statement. The other claim has been that there is a booming job market. Our city is have layoffs in some of our local companies, is yours? There seems to be something fishy here. On March 29th, Zero Hedge posted an article explaining what was fishy. This is one of those articles when I post what I don’t totally understand, so please be patient. I have very little to add–the article says it all.

The article reports:

The first red flags emerged in the summer of 2022: that’s when the Biden Labor Department started well and truly rigging the labor market data.

Regular readers may recall that it was back in July of 2022, when we first warned that something had “snapped” in the labor market: that’s when a striking discrepancy emerged between the number of US Payrolls (as measured by the BLS’ Establishment Survey, a far more crude and imprecise, yet much more market-moving data series), and the number of actual Employed Workers (as measured by the BLS’ far more accurate Household Survey) . As we showed then, after the two series had tracked each other tick for tick for years, a wide gap opened in March 2022 which quickly grew to 1.5 million jobs in just 3 months…

The article includes the following chart:

 

The article further explains:

And while some of this discrepancy could be explained with the record surge in multiple jobholders, which increased by 1 million since March 2022 to an all time high of 8.6 million at the end of 2023 (as a reminder, the Establishment Survey counts 1 worker have 2 or 3 (or more) multiple jobs as, well, 2 or 3 (or more) separate jobs, even if it is just one worker trying to make ends meet under the roaring inflation of Bidenomics), most of the gap remained unexplained.

There was more: it was around the summer of 2022 that the Biden labor department – in its zeal to show job growth no matter the cost, or quality of jobs – also started fooling around with the composition of the labor market, with most of the monthly gains going to part-time workers, even as full-time workers stagnated or declined. The culmination, as we reported earlier this month, is that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Which is great… until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

The article concludes:

Putting it all together, we now know – as the Philly Fed reported first – that the labor market is far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls are “missing” when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS’ woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls “data”, and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 230K jobs added on average every month but rather 130K.

Of course, none of that paints Bidenomics in a flattering picture, because while one can at least pretend that issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days to add 3 million jos per year is somewhat acceptable, learning that that ridiculous amount buys 800,000 jobs less is hardly the endorsement that the White House needs.

Which is also why nobody in the mainstream media – which is now nothing more than the PR smokescreen for the Biden puppetmasters, the government and the deep state – will ever mention this report.

As such, we urge all readers to read Philly Fed analysis (link here) and to analyze the excel data (link here) at their own leisure, because in a fascist state, the media no longer works for the people.

Think of these numbers when you vote in November.

Our Future With Extreme Environmentalists

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On Monday, Just the News posted an article about energy prices in California. Obviously inflation combined with the curtailment of American energy production has caused energy prices to increase everywhere, but in California they have increased at double the rate of the rest of the country.

The article reports:

California’s energy costs are double the national average and increasing at double the national rate as the state pushes for reducing emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. The state’s energy regulator says energy costs are rapidly approaching the tipping point at which filling up a Tesla with electrons will cost more than filling up a Camry with gasoline.

With the state reducing emissions by an average of 1.5% per year since 2010, this rate would leave the state not reaching its emissions goal until 2047.

California energy costs 2.3 times the national average, with energy costs in the state increasing 10.9% over the past four years compared to 5.1% nationwide, according to an analysis by Radiant Energy Group of U.S. Energy Information Administration data. In some markets, consumers face even higher increases — in San Jose, average monthly energy bills rose from $121 in 2021 to $203 by the end of 2023, with increases from $152 to $220 and $113 to $138 in Los Angeles and San Diego across the same time frames.

The California legislature is dealing with this increase by instituting what can only be called a Marxist solution–equal outcome–not equal burden.

The article reports:

Due to the extremely high cost of California energy, the legislature ordered the California Public Utilities Commission to restructure energy bill surcharges for non-consumption costs to be based on household income. Under this plan, monthly fees to cover utilities’ normal costs outside of electricity consumption — such as power line maintenance and wildfire protection — would be charged to homes based on their household income. Both Republican and Democratic state legislators have come out with plans to repeal this order, suggesting the income-graduated fixed charge may be shut down before it takes effect on July 1.

I think we can safely say that the free market is dead in California.