Tag Archives: Inflation

Economic Growth Under President Trump

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On Thursday, CNBC posted an article about America’s economic growth during the third quarter of 2026.

The article reports:

  • The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the third quarter, faster than expected.
  • Inflation continued to run above the Fed’s 2% target in September, with a headline rate of 3.6% and core at 3.1%, according to the central bank’s preferred gauge.
  • Consumer spending was slightly below forecasts, though still up 0.5%. Personal income increased just 0.2%.

Note that consumer spending and personal income both increased. Our current rate of inflation has a lot to do with the Iran war and will drop as soon as that war is over. Just as a point of reference, the last time inflation was 2% was late 2021.

The article notes:

Excluding food and energy, the core PCE posted respective readings of 0.3% and 3.1%, in line with the consensus. While the Fed follows both measures closely, officials generally see the core reading as more indicative of longer-term inflation trends.

While inflation continued to run ahead of the Fed’s 2% target, the Commerce Department also reported that gross domestic product was strong in the third quarter.

GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 3.4%, better than the 3.1% estimate and well ahead of the 2.2% in the second quarter.

Also, in September consumer spending proved resilient, climbing 0.5%, a bit below the forecast for a 0.6% gain, while personal income rose 0.2%, compared with the estimate for 0.3%.

The reports come the day after the Fed voted to hold its benchmark interest rate in a range between 3.75%-4%. Despite elevated inflation readings, central bank officials insist they can afford to evaluate incoming data before deciding on their next move.

The article concludes:

Real sales to private domestic purchasers, a proxy that Fed officials use for underlying demand, rose 4.9%, compared with a 4.6% increase in the second quarter.

There was some good inflation news for the period: On a quarterly basis, PCE prices rose 2.1% on the headline number and 2.5% for core, down respectively from 5% and 3.3% in the second quarter.

September’s price increases were driven largely by a surge in energy costs that economists fear could be spreading to other parts of the economy. Gasoline and other energy goods saw a 9.2% rise for the month while energy goods and services broadly jumped 5.4%.

At the same time, services prices excluding energy and housing rose 0.4%, and housing costs increased 0.3%.

How Is The American Economy Doing?

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I’m hearing the word affordability mentioned in a lot of Democrat campaign ads, but somehow the ads don’t mention the roots of the affordability problem. Inflation has decreased under President Trump, but somehow once the prices go up, they rarely go down.

On October 26th, Smart Asset posted the following chart:

So how is the economy actually doing under president Trump?

On October 26th, The Conservative Treehouse posted the following chart:

If you choose to vote Democrat in the mid-term elections, you can expect higher inflation and slower economic growth. You can also expect the amount of goods you can buy with your paycheck to decrease.

The Conservative Treehouse reports:

Exports decreased 5.7%.  However, within the data you will note a third quarter massive surge in imports of 26.4% (goods), which led to a deduction impact of 3.32% in the overall GDP statistic [Table 1.5.2] As noted in the BEA review, “the largest contributor to imports was capital goods, except automotive.”

A 26% increase in capital goods is massive. I would anticipate that in addition to large industrial equipment, what we are witnessing in that import number is the AI-Data Center factor, this is the massive ‘compute’ need. The likely highest import value is on the data chips.

Think about it.  If there was no increase in imported goods and services to deduct from the growth rate, the U.S. economic growth rate would have been +6.7%.  Keep in mind the USA is already the largest economy in the world at $32.5 trillion.  So, a growth rate of 3.4% is a massive whole dollar increase in the U.S. economy.  The pie is much larger!

Overall investment into the economy grew at a whopping 19.4% versus the prior quarter.  The value of industrial equipment grew 20.9% over the prior quarter. We are investing in industrial production and setting the equipment in place for a manufacturing boom for the next several years.

In the background we still need to import industrial equipment and computer chips until we get the manufacturing systems in place (industrial equipment) to begin producing the outputs domestically.  But industrial investment at this scale is exceptional for the long-term growth of the economy.

We need to stay the course. We are moving in the right direction. A Democrat Congress will not take us in this direction.

The Drive To Make Sure President Trump Does Not Get Credit For Any Success

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On Wednesday, Breitbart posted an article about the erroneous reporting on the impact of the Trump tariffs. As we are watching manufacturing return to America (something the Democrats claimed could never happen), some of our talking heads are screaming that the tariffs are causing inflation. Wait a minute. The annual inflation rate reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022, before gradually declining to around 3.7% by 2024. The current rate is slightly lower than 3%. Where were the tariffs in 2022?

The article reports:

The New York Fed has posted yet another paper by Mary Amiti and a team of economists on the costs of tariffs. It’s widely being read as showing that tariffs have pushed up consumer prices, with many reports claiming that goods inflation ran 2.9 percentage points higher because of tariffs.

In reality, however, the paper shows no such thing.

In the first place, the paper does not show and does not even claim that tariffs pushed up overall inflation by 2.9 percentage points. Its sample covers just 20 percent of the consumer basket. Translate the estimate into a contribution to overall consumer prices and you get roughly six-tenths of a percentage point, before accounting for anything happening elsewhere in the economy.

The article concludes:

But even when it comes to the limited findings about tariff pass-through to consumer prices, the Fed researchers render independent scrutiny impossible. Have they measured the right product categories? We cannot know because the paper does not list the 67 goods categories included in its consumer-price sample or their individual weights. It explains how the basket was constructed, but readers cannot examine which goods were included, which were omitted, and whether those choices materially affect the result. We’re just supposed to trust them because they’re Fed economists, and they would never make a mistake or willfully construct a basket of tariffed goods that advance the view that tariffs push up prices.

The Liberty Street Economics post about the paper acknowledges that its method cannot establish how much of the broader price movement was itself caused by tariffs. But it then declares that without tariffs, goods prices would have fallen slightly. But even the paper’s note on its own chart says the contribution is illustrative rather than an absolute contribution to aggregate goods inflation.

The Fed has produced a small library on tariffs and prices. This paper alone cites work from seven corners of the Federal Reserve System. You might reasonably conclude that the Fed—which let inflation under Biden rise to the highest level in 40 years—is obsessed with showing that tariffs are no good, very bad policies that hurt consumers.

But after all that research, even the roughly six-tenths contribution to overall prices only amounts to an estimate that doesn’t take into account how the market and consumers reacted to higher prices.

You can make statistics say pretty much anything you want them to if you know how to manipulate numbers! Before 1913, the American government was paid for entirely by tariffs–there was NO income tax.

When The Press Lies To Sway An Election

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The mid-term elections are almost here. Soon all of the television ads for the candidates will be gone. Soon the accusations will stop flying. I can’t wait.

Meanwhile, how accurate is the mainstream media’s reporting of the Trump economic record? According to the actual numbers–not very accurate!

On Monday, Issues & Insights posted an article about the Trump economy and the media’s reporting on it.

The article reminds us:

Republican incumbent President George H.W. Bush lost the 1992 election to the Arkansas governor who ran on the slogan “It’s the Economy, Stupid.” Americans voted for change after being told over and over by the legacy media that the economy was dragging. But it wasn’t. It had recovered from a downturn, yet the media continued to shop the lie, carrying Bill Clinton to the presidency.

We’re now in 2026, less than two months from the midterm elections, and the legacy media, which is nothing more than the Democratic Party’s propaganda arm, is doing the same to President Donald Trump in an effort to lift the Democrats to a congressional majority.

Clinton’s campaign was centered on his claim that the economy leading up to the 1992 election was the worst “in 50 years.” It was true that Bush’s term had a rough patch that began in July 1990. But “the recession ended in March 1991,” according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, and “an expansion began at that time.”

Read that again. March 1991. Not March 1992. Nor March 1993.

The article notes:

While Trump’s handling of the economy is at just 35%, according to RealClearPolitics polling average, the data tell a story that the Democrats don’t want told. Instead, they want to screech about an economy they claim isn’t working for everyone, and yammer on about affordability hardships their policies have caused. Naturally, the media are happy to amplify the message. After all, electing Democrats is, as they see it, their job.

So they ignore:

We  have seen this play before. The question is whether or not voters will fall for this trick a second time.

The Numbers The Media Is Not Showing You

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From an X post:

In case you are having trouble reading the numbers:

INFLATION
🟦 Biden: +12.3%
🟥 Trump: +4.3%

GROCERIES
🟦 Biden: +15.8%
🟥 Trump: +3.3%

GAS
🟦 Biden: +69%
🟥 Trump: +12%

RENT
🟦 Biden: +7.7%
🟥 Trump: +4.5%

ELECTRICITY
🟦 Biden: +19.1%
🟥 Trump: +8.4%

NEW & USED CARS
🟦 Biden: +23.9%
🟥 Trump: −1.2%

I know gasoline prices are high right now, but they will come down. We know the reason they are high. Unfortunately because previous administrations loved kicking the can down the road, we were faced with a choice between higher gasoline prices or Iran with a nuclear weapon. Our children and grandchildren will appreciate the fact that we (so far) have been willing to make that sacrifice.

The post at X states:

That doesn’t mean Americans aren’t feeling real affordability pressure. They ARE. But during Biden’s term, I REMEMBER the media making it feel like everything was fine but the opposite was felt by Americans in the real world. Today, it seems to be the opposite. People’s conditions are improving but the perception is that life is worse. That’s exactly why you have to separate how people feel, what they’re being told, and what the underlying data actually show. We’re heading toward the 2026 midterms.

A vote for Republicans in the mid-terms is a vote for a strong economy. A vote for the Democrats is a vote for less freedom and more regulations.

The Trump Economy

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On Thursday, CNBC posted an article about the inflation numbers for July.

The article reports:

  • The producer price index was flat in July compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase. Core PPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast.
  • PPI measures wholesale inflation and was the latest metric to show easing price pressures after months of gains.

The article notes:

Wholesale costs for goods and services were flat in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday in the latest positive sign for inflation.

The producer price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged for the month, below the 0.2% Dow Jones consensus estimate and after falling 0.1% in June. The June figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 0.3%.

Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2%, against the forecast for a 0.3% gain. The core PPI excluding trade services increased 0.4%.

On an annual basis, the headline PPI increased 4.7% for the all-items index and 4.2% for core, according to unadjusted figures.

The report follows several other indicators telling a similar story – that after a ramp-up in inflation earlier this year fueled by the Iran war and President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the rate of price increases is beginning to ease.

Stock market futures were positive after the report while Treasury yields were lower. Traders further reduced the odds for a September rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

The article concludes:

On Wednesday, the BLS reported that the consumer price index rose just 0.1% in July as falling energy prices during the month helped lower price pressures. However, the headline annual inflation rate of 3.4% was still well above the Fed’s goal.

Core consumer inflation was considerably tamer, posting a 0.2% monthly gain and 2.5% annual rate that put the level back to where it was prior to the start of the war.

Market expectations have switched in recent days, with traders now pricing in a rate hike in October or December after putting heavy odds that the Federal Open Market Committee would move at its next meeting on Sept. 15-16.

In other economic news Thursday, initial jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended Aug. 8, up 9,000 from the prior period and above the 204,000 estimate.

We need to remember that Rome was not built in a day. Inflation is gradually coming down, trade deficits are down, manufacturing jobs are up, and industries are moving back to America. These are all positive things that are the result of President Trump’s economic policies. If the Democrats are successful in the mid-term elections, most of these good things will disappear.

The Latest News On Inflation

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On August 12, Breitbart posted an article about the current inflation rate.

The article reports:

Consumer prices inched up in July after declining sharply in June.

The consumer price index rose 0.1 percent compared with June, the Department of Labor said Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the consumer price index is up 3.4 percent.

That matched the consensus forecast. In June, prices fell 0.4 percent while the consumer price index was up 3.5 percent from a year ago.

Core prices, a measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2 percent compared with the previous month. For the year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, a decline in year-over-year inflation from the previous month’s 2.6 percent.

The moderate monthly readings across all times and core inflation, along with the decline in the year-over-year inflation rate, will likely ease concerns among Fed officials. Prices of fed funds futures implied the odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in September fell from nearly 50 percent to around 40 percent.

Goods prices fell 0.2 percent, the second consecutive monthly decline. Excluding food and beverages, goods prices dropped 0.4 percent. Durable goods prices rose 0.3 percent after declining in May and remaining flat in June.

The goal of the Federal Reserve is to keep inflation at 2 percent; however, their policies seem to reflect politics more than inflation strategy.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) notes:

The last time the United States experienced an average inflation rate of around 2% was in 2021, when the annual inflation rate was approximately 4.7%, but it had been lower in previous years, specifically around 2.1% in 2018. The Federal Reserve typically aims for a long-term inflation target of 2%.

AI notes:

Overview of Federal Reserve Interest Rates (2016-2024)

The following points summarize key trends and changes in interest rates during this period.

  • Initial Rate (2016) — The federal funds rate was set at 0.25% in December 2015 and remained unchanged until December 2016.
  • Gradual Increases (2017-2018) — The Fed raised rates several times, reaching 2.50% by December 2018.
  • COVID-19 Response (2020) — In March 2020, rates were cut to near zero (0-0.25%) to support the economy during the pandemic.
  • Inflationary Pressures (2021-2022) — Rates remained low until inflation concerns prompted increases starting in March 2022.
  • Current Rate (2024) — As of 2024, the federal funds rate is approximately 5.25%, reflecting ongoing efforts to manage inflation.

During the first two years of the first Trump administration, interest rates were raised. In 2020, rates were lowered and remained low halfway through the Biden administration.

Draw your own conclusions.

This Is How The Story Always Goes

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On Friday, Zero Hedge posted an article about a recent statement by Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA).

The article reports:

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) – fresh off endorsing California’s November ballot measure to seize 5% of billionaire wealth – published a Substack essay Wednesday titled, no really, “Why I Support a Billionaire Wealth Tax.”

He makes it roughly a dozen paragraphs before explaining that it isn’t one.

“The tax should not stop at billionaires, it must reach centimillionaires,” Khanna writes, before spelling out exactly what that means: every fortune of $50 million and up, hit with a 2% federal levy on wealth above that line – every year, forever, on top of everything else you already pay. The vehicle is Elizabeth Warren’s Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act, which Khanna notes he has cosponsored every single year it’s been introduced.

And before anyone reaches for the estate planner: Khanna wants the levy to pierce irrevocable trusts, with the tax billed to the grantor who set them up – because parking a fortune in a trust, in his telling, shouldn’t take it off the government’s books.

Former Microsoft executive Steven Sinofsky summed up the reveal in eight words: “Just like that, no longer a billionaires tax.”

The article provides some insight into the recent history of wealth taxes:

The measure headed to California voters in November is a one-time 5% tax on the state’s roughly 250 billionaires. Newsom, opposing it, countered on June 26 with a national “billionaires’ tax” – which, in its original form, applied to anyone worth $100 million or more, language that was quietly scrubbed after multiple outlets quoted it as we reported. Six days later, Khanna planted the flag at $50 million.

None of this is exactly new, of course. The Warren bill has carried the $50 million line since she rolled it out in 2019, and Biden’s 2022 “Billionaire Minimum Income Tax” kicked in at $100 million households. The branding always says billionaire, but the fine print ios a slippery slope.

Then there’s inflation… The bill’s $50 million threshold is a flat statutory number that hasn’t moved since 2019 – meaning inflation has already quietly cut the real threshold by more than a fifth. The creep shows up in the sponsors’ own math: when the bill debuted, backers said it touched the top 0.05% of American households; the 2026 reintroduction, per the same Saez-Zucman analysis the sponsors tout, now reaches 260,000 households – the top 0.15%. Same words, triple the coverage, five years. Asset inflation does the broadening automatically. Congress just has to sit still.

When the Income Tax began in 1913, it was only supposed to apply to the top 1 or 2 percent of the wealthiest Americans. We see how that worked out.

How Is The Economy Doing?

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Obviously, the increase in gasoline prices because of the war in Iran is going to impact inflation, but that should be a temporary increase. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is doing a good job of keeping inflation under control.

On Wednesday, CNBC reported:

  • The consumer price index rose 2.4% in February from a year earlier, unchanged from January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • That’s still slightly above policymakers’ long-term inflation target, economists said.
  • War in Iran complicates the picture. The conflict has caused oil prices to soar since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, raising prices for gasoline and other types of fuel.

The article at CNBC includes the following charts:

The article concludes:

Overall the CPI inflation also looks better on paper than in reality due to a quirk in the data from the government shutdown in the fall.

The record-long shutdown, which ran from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, prevented federal statisticians from collecting typical inflation data in October. Without that data, the BLS assumed that no price increases had taken place during the month for most categories of goods and services.

Taking that measurement quirk into account, the CPI inflation is likely around 2.7%, about 0.3 percentage point higher than reported Wednesday, said Zandi of Moody’s.

The State of the Union Speech

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President Trump’s State of the Union Speech was long, but it was powerful. It was a major salvo in the mid-term election campaign. AP has posted a complete transcript of the speech.

Here are a few highlights of the speech:

The economy is turned around and Americans have more money in their pockets. Inflation is lower and incomes are higher.

The border is secure. 

There have been 0 illegal aliens entering the country for the past 9 months.

The flow of fentanyl across our border is down by a record 56% in one year.

In the last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history.

In four long years, the last administration got less than $1 trillion in new investment in the United States. And when I say less, substantially less. In 12 months, I secured commitments for more than $18 trillion pouring in from all over the globe.

American natural gas production is at an all-time high. Because I kept my promise to drill, baby, drill.

More Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country. Think about that. Any time in the history of our country. More working today, and 100% of all jobs created under my administration have been in the private sector.

We cut a record number of job-killing regulations, and in one year we have lifted 2.4 million Americans – a record – off of food stamps.

The President said the following about tariffs:

But the good news is that almost all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made — right, Scott? — knowing that the legal power that I, as president, have to make a new deal could be far worse for them, and, therefore, they will continue to work along the same successful path that we had negotiated before the Supreme Court’s unfortunate involvement. So, despite the disappointing ruling, these powerful countries saving, is saving our country the kind of money we’re taking in, peace protecting — many of the wars I’ve settled was because of the threat of tariffs, I wouldn’t have been able to settle them without — will remain in place under fully approved and tested alternative legal statutes. And they have been tested for a long time. They’re a little more complex, but they’re actually probably better — leading to a solution that will be even stronger than before. Congressional action will not be necessary. It’s already time-tested and approved. And as time goes by, I believe the tariffs, paid for by foreign countries, will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off the people that I love.

Follow the link for the complete transcript. As I stated, it was long, but I think he hit it out of the park–particularly when the Democrats were asked to stand for the idea that the government was supposed to support Americans. Staying seated was not wise.

Wrong Again!

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How many times do the experts have to be wrong before we ignore them? Remember the predictions that the Trump tariffs would add to inflation? Well, the numbers tell a different story.

On Wednesday, The Conservative Treehouse reported:

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the December price information on Tuesday 1/13/26 [DATA HERE].  Overall, the topline inflation number is moderate at 2.7% much lower than economists projected.

However, that’s not the only important element.  To get an understanding of the impact from tariffs to imported consumer goods, you can look at TABLE-2 [DATA HERE].  As you skim the categories we import the most, electronics, television, sporting goods, apparel, shoes, tools, furniture, etc. what you will note is that the prices are stable with negligible inflation impact noted.

What this means is that tariffs are not creating any upward price pressure on the imported good.  The December ’25 imported good prices are stable despite massive tariffs applied in the second and third quarter of 2025.  As expected, based on history from 2018/2019, the exporting nation (and company) are absorbing most of the wholesale price increased due to tariffs.

The imported goods are reaching the consumer with no substantively changed price.  Some domestically generated goods (food and housing) are still driving the overall inflation number, particularly in the year-over-year calculation, but no substantive price pressure is coming from the import sector.

Export dependent nations are squeezing their own productivity, their governments are subsidizing the critical industries, and the tariffs are being absorbed before the products leave the docks.   This is the USA “rust belt” in reverse.  The same scenario played out in the USA for decades as domestic manufacturers tried to retain U.S. industry.  Now the foreign countries are experiencing their own economic squeeze.

This is part of the inflation table:

The article concludes:

Having gaslit the American electorate over the issues of Joe Biden’s economic/energy policy which created record inflation, the same media who ran cover for Joe Biden then switched during the Trump administration to calling the subsequent high costs an “affordability” crisis.

In essence, Biden’s economic, energy and monetary policies drove 2021/2022 inflation to record levels, this made all prices rise massively. Those high prices are now the “affordability problem” all U.S. consumers are dealing with.

When will we learn not to pay attention to the ‘experts’?

Positive Changes In Healthcare Costs

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On Friday, The Daily Signal posted an article about solving the rapidly rising cost of healthcare in America.

The article reports:

Americans grappling with affordability just got a helpful boost from the Trump administration, which on Friday announced a new push to reduce health care costs. 

The move helps patients get health care prices upfront rather than astronomically high surprise bills later.

The new Transparency in Coverage (TiC) proposed rule will improve data structure, reduce unnecessary file size and increase usability. This will make transparency easier to analyze and more accessible to employers, researchers and innovators working to lower health care costs. 

By receiving prices upfront in a clear, easy-to-use format, Americans can shop around for the best provider at the lowest cost—driving more competition and empowering patients. Friday’s move was announced jointly by the Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Department of Labor, and Treasury Department.

President Donald Trump already fought hard in his first term to improve health care price transparency, and Friday’s announcement continues that momentum which continued in Trump’s February executive order.

In December 2020, Trump also signed the No Surprises Act, meant to provide patients detailed upfront price information about their care. But the Biden administration delayed implementing these policies, and the American people never saw the full benefit of price transparency.

Additionally, the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021 requires insurance companies and brokers to reveal all historical claims data and broker fees while also removing gag clauses. Hospitals must not surprise patients with bills after insurance companies refuse to pay more.

The article includes the following graph:

The article notes:

There’s a simple reason health care prices skyrocket above overall inflation: no free and fair competition. Costs for hospital services in particular have seen the highest rates of inflation among major U.S. consumer goods and services, per economist Mark J. Perry.  

Notice that college tuition has also gone up faster than inflation. I think that if we could get the government out of healthcare and out of student loans, the price of healthcare and of college would go down.

The Cost Of Thanksgiving

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On Saturday, Breitbart posted an article about the cost of celebrating Thanksgiving this year.

The article reports:

The cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal is down sharply this year, falling to the lowest price since 2021, according to the American Farm Bureau.

The farm bureau’s 40th annual survey found that a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will cost $55.18, down five percent from last year.

Since 1986, volunteers across all 50 states and Puerto Rico have been organized by the American Farm Bureau (AFB) to record local prices for turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream and whole milk.

Prices soared during the presidency of Joe Biden, with inflation rising to the worst pace in forty years. The price of a classic Thankgiving meal surged 14 percent in 2021, Biden’s first year in office, hitting a then-record high of $53.31.

Despite the administration’s insistence that the price increases were “transitory” or the result of a temporary supply shock, the following year what came to be called Bidenflation was even worse. The price of a Thanksgiving meal jumped another 20 percent, skyrocketing to $64.05.

By Biden’s final Thanksigiving, the price of a traditional family holiday meal was 24 percent higher than it was when he took office.

The article concludes:

The decline in price vindicates President Trump’s recent claims about the Thanksgiving meal becoming more affordable for American families. The decline is all the more notable because it defies predictions that President Trump’s trade and immigration policies would drive prices up.

I can guarantee that if the Democrats gain control of either Congress of the White House in the coming years, inflation will rear its ugly head again. Although President Trump and Congress have not yet been able to cut spending as much as I would like, I believe that they will continue to move in that direction in the coming months. Cutting government spending is the sensible way to deal with inflation.

The Trump Economy

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Periodically, I watch television news shows with economic ‘experts’ that have Trump Derangement Syndrome. I watched one on Saturday. They were complaining about inflation and affordability under the Trump administration. Really? A dozen basic Grade A large eggs at Harris Teeter is $2.59. The average retail price of a dozen eggs in the U.S. was $4.953 in January 2025. Inflation? In January 2025, the average price for a gallon of milk was approximately $4.87. The current price at Harris Teeter is $2.49 a gallon. In January 2025, the average price for regular gasoline was $3.08 per gallon. In eastern North Carolina, the current price is $2.59. If that is inflation, can we please have more of it!

On Monday, Victor David Hanson posted an article at American Greatness about the impact of the Trump economy. He noted that President Trump is not getting credit for the improvement in the economy that his policies have created.

The article notes:

The current economic indicators, at least those attributable to the 10-month Trump administration, are strong.

Fourth-quarter GDP is estimated to grow between 2.7 and 4 percent, the robust latter figure according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank.

Inflation from June to August ranged from 2.7 to 2.9 percent, significantly lower than the 5 percent annual average during Biden’s 2021-2025 term.

Gas prices now average $2.98 per gallon, compared to $3.46, the average cost during Biden’s four years.

In less than a year, Trump has increased oil production by one million barrels per day.

Unemployment in the second quarter of 2025 stayed steady at 4.2 percent, roughly the same as the 4.1 percent during the final month of Biden’s tenure.

The stock market has reached an all-time high. Foreign investment is pegged at record levels. Tariff revenue could reach $400 billion by the end of the year—vastly outpacing the $77 billion in all of last year, 2024.

In other words, the economy is rolling along.

To the extent the Trump administration has a problem with the economy, however, it is threefold.

One is public perceptions.

…Second, the administration and Republicans have rarely compared their own economic record with that of Biden’s dismal four years to explain how there is improvement in almost every area.

…Third, most of Trump’s key economic initiatives are long-term and will not be fully realized by the end of 2025 or in early to mid-2026.

The article concludes:

If the shutdown were quickly ended and the Fed steadily lowered interest rates by at least 2 percent, and if the media would just report the news rather than seek to create realities by falsification, then a strong, and soon to be even more robust, economy would likely determine the 2026 midterms, and with it the Trump presidency.

So the current Trump economy is in a race of sorts. The challenge is not nature, not war, not the unpredictable, and certainly not wrong economic policies and agendas.

The rub is a failure to highlight the radical improvement from the Biden years in just a few months, to explain that novel policies are already in motion that may revolutionize the American economy within a year, and to recognize the destructive efforts of partisan shutdowns, partisan high interest rates, and partisan hysterical doom and gloom fake news.

If Trump meets these challenges, voters could see the economy take off as never before in 2026—just in time for the midterms.

I think that is what the Democrats are trying to avoid!

Why I Don’t Trust The ‘Experts’

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On Thursday, Breitbart posted an article about the impact of President Trump’s tariffs. Generally speaking, the results of the tariffs is the exact opposite of what the experts predicted. We really don’t know if the predictions were so dire because President Trump was involved or if the experts really believed what they were writing.

The article reports:

In yesterday’s Breitbart Business Digest, we examined a new working paper from Jared Bernstein and Daniel Posthumus that documented the decline of U.S. manufacturing employment, particularly the devastating 2000-2010 “China Shock” period when 5.7 million factory jobs disappeared.

While the authors called this period “destructive” and urged preventing future shocks, they insisted that “sweeping” tariffs were not the right policy. Their reasoning was undermined by a significant contradiction: they claim tariffs would disrupt American manufacturing because we’re too dependent on foreign inputs, yet they simultaneously advocate for subsidies for sectors vulnerable to foreign export controls. They’ve essentially documented that our industrial base is dangerously hollowed out while arguing we’re too dependent to fix it.

As we explained, the real-world evidence further undermines their anti-tariff position. Despite President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs imposed in April 2025, the predicted “tarifflation” never materialized. Prices on tariffed imports haven’t risen as economists predicted. In fact, prices on non-tariffed domestic goods rose more than tariffed imports, while domestic goods competing with tariffed imports are actually down since Liberation Day. There certainly has not been any widespread inflation created by tariffs. The central economic case against tariffs—that they raise consumer prices—has collapsed in the face of actual data.

What we’re actually seeing is something economists have long theorized as “optimal tariff theory.“ A country with a globally dominant consumer market can employ tariffs to force foreign manufacturers to lower prices to maintain their exports. It can also successfully pressure other countries to reduce their own import barriers by threatening even higher tariffs. Finally, the household sector can force a redistribution from the corporate sector by refusing to accept the pass-through of tariff costs.

The article concludes:

Meanwhile, Biden’s subsidy approach—implicitly endorsed by the paper—produced billions in spending, out-of-control inflation, a brief construction boom, and then declining factory employment.

The paper warns that tariffs raise input costs, but we’re currently so dependent on imported inputs that we’re vulnerable to devastating supply cutoffs. The paper warns about retaliation, but sweeping tariffs have proven less provocative than thought, and there’s every reason to believe that targeting other countries’ strategic sectors would ignite backlash. The paper warns about price increases, but the data shows prices on tariffed goods rising less than non-tariffed ones.

At every turn, the real-world evidence contradicts the theoretical objections. An open-minded reader of the paper will come away grateful American’s voted for Trump’s trade policies rather than the industrial policy favored by Bernstein, Postuhumus, and the Biden administration.

I guess the businessman in the White House had a better understanding of economics than the experts.

Wages And Inflation

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The problem with inflation is that even after the rate of inflation is finally brought under control, the prices never seem to go back down. This is what many Americans are experiencing in the early months of the Trump administration. Gasoline prices at the pump and eggs are the only noticeable reduced prices we have actually seen.

On Tuesday, Zero Hedge posted the following chart:

So if you are wondering why your grocery bill looks more like what used to be a car payment, now you know why.

The article concludes:

The -0.7% drop in real hourly earnings since January 2021 highlights a fundamental truth: even small mismatches between wage growth and inflation, when sustained over years, can erode financial stability for everyday Americans.

There is reason for optimism, though. If the current trend continues, with inflation stable and wage growth healthy, real wages could soon surpass pre-crisis levels. But that path remains vulnerable to shifts in inflation or labor market conditions.

For a longer-term look at how wages and inflation have tracked historically, check out the data from 2007 in this USAFacts visualization on Voronoi.

 

Rewriting History For Political Purposes

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The problem with inflation is that once the prices go up, they don’t always come back down to where they were. Although gas at the pump is comfortably low, a lot of other things that became more expensive under the Biden administration’s runaway inflation have not yet come down to their previous level. Americans are still feeling the impact of the Biden administration’s economic policies. It is wise to keep in mind that President Trump has only been in office since the end of January, and Rome wasn’t built in a day.

On Thursday, The Daily Caller posted an article giving us a preview of the rhetoric we will encounter in the run up to the mid-term elections.

The article reports:

CNN senior political commentator Scott Jennings reminded former Democratic New York mayoral candidate Michael Blake on Thursday that the affordability crisis began under former President Joe Biden.

Blake claimed that Democratic Iowa state Sen.-elect Catelin Drey defeated the Republican incumbent in the state’s special election because Republicans “cannot articulate a policy agenda” to make Americans’ lives more affordable. Jennings mocked Democrats for sounding the alarm on the affordability crisis when inflation soared to record levels under Biden.

“Well it doesn’t make me very nervous to hear Democrats, with a straight face, looking into a television camera and saying ‘boy, how did we get to this affordability crisis’ given that we all know how we got there over the last four years,” Jennings said.

When Blake blamed President Donald Trump for the inflation under Biden, Jennings said, “So you’re saying we had no affordability crisis during the Biden years? Where did the inflation come from?”

The article notes:

Prices rose more than 20% during Biden’s term in office, jumping from 1.4% at the beginning of Biden’s presidency to its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the highest annual rate since 1981. Inflation fell below 3% for the first time in two years in July 2024.

Many economists blamed the soaring inflation on the Biden administration spending $1.9 trillion and $750 billion on the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act, which Biden signed into law early in his term.

The article concludes:

Jennings said that Democrats tend to perform better in special elections, which contributed to Drey’s victory.

“It’s absolutely true. Democrats now have more voters who are regular voters in non-traditional elections. Specials, off-year, what have you. That’s absolutely true, and so you’ve seen a pattern of Democrats doing better in these elections that don’t happen outside of a regular occurrence,” Jennings added.

It will be interesting to see where the economy is by next November, and if voters want to go back to the inflation numbers we had in the Biden administration.

When The Facts Disprove The Narrative

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When President Trump took office, he instituted policies to level the playing field in trading between America and other countries. The tariff system that was in Place when President Trump took office was not beneficial to America. The mainstream media immediately began clutching their pearls and claiming that the tariffs were going to send inflation through the roof. Funny, they never said much about inflation going through the roof when President Biden was in office.

On August 17, Zero Hedge reported the following:

Update (1020ET): President Trump rage-posted about the lack of inflation amid all the tariff-fearmongering…

“Trillions of Dollars are being taken in on Tariffs, which has been incredible for our Country, its Stock Market, its General Wealth, and just about everything else.

It has been proven, that even at this late stage, Tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for Country, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers.

Also, it has been shown that, for the most part, Consumers aren’t even paying these Tariffs, it is mostly Companies and Governments, many of them Foreign, picking up the tabs. “

Then took direct aim at Goldman Sachs:

“But David Solomon and Goldman Sachs refuse to give credit where credit is due.

They made a bad prediction a long time ago on both the Market repercussion and the Tariffs themselves, and they were wrong, just like they are wrong about so much else.

I think that David should go out and get himself a new Economist or, maybe, he ought to just focus on being a DJ, and not bother running a major Financial Institution.”

Ouch!

The article includes a number of graphs explaining exactly what items have increased in price and by how much. Please follow the link to read the article.

One Unusual Economic Indicator

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There were hysterics when President Trump took office and instituted tariffs on countries that had instituted tariffs on America for years. The tariffs would cause inflation (in 2022 inflation peaked at 9 percent in June). Inflation is now at roughly 2.3 percent. The President was blamed for the rapidly rising price of eggs (after the Biden administration found a reason to kill millions of chickens). Many restaurants added a surcharge to egg dishes to compensate for the high price of eggs. Waffle House was one of those restaurants.

On Wednesday, PJ Media reported:

Waffle House is a pillar of American culture. A refuge for the hungover, an arena for the absurd, and a beacon for those on a budget, Waffle House delivers on the American melting pot promise — one that is scattered, smothered, and covered. When the chain slapped a 50-cent surcharge on each egg (which are freshly cracked to order, by the way) in February 2025, it echoed the supply and demand quagmire every American felt at the grocery store.

Brooke Rollins, President Trump’s Secretary of Agriculture, told Fox Business:

When President Trump entered office, the cost of eggs was at a record high, seriously denting consumers’ wallets after years of awful inflation. On my first day as Secretary, we got to work to implement a five-pronged strategy to improve biosecurity on the farm and lower egg prices on grocery store shelves. The plan has worked, and families are seeing relief with egg prices driving food deflation in the April Consumer Price Index.

The plan has indeed worked. Yesterday, Waffle House announced the repeal of the surcharge on X.

The article concludes:

To celebrate the Trump administration’s success, I encourage all red-blooded Americans embarking on the Great American Road Trip this Fourth of July weekend to park under the vivid yellow and black waffle sign and order to their heart’s content. After all, this holiday is all about freedom from tyranny, economic opportunity, and the right to peaceably assemble. Unless you order cheese in your grits, because then there will be fireworks.

Thanks to President Trump, consumer costs are starting to come down, and inflation is stabilizing. To the surprise of no one with a functioning brain, our economy does better under a president who knows what he’s doing.

The Waffle House menu is also used as a gauge to the severity of a disaster by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

This is the chart used:

The Trump Presidency And Your Wallet

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On Friday, Breitbart posted an article about the impact of the Trump economy on personal income.

The article reports:

Americans’ personal income in the first four months of 2025 is “almost triple the expectations,” making for a “great” start of the year, CNBC’s Rick Santelli exclaimed on the air, urging viewers to “give credit” to the Trump administration.

The longtime CNBC editor revealed the “powerful” numbers on Friday morning, sharing that personal income increased 0.8 percent in April. 

“This is a great four-month start to any year,” he said.

“When you look at income, for the first four months of the year, they’re powerful numbers — up 0.6 in January, up 0.7 in February, up 0.5 last month, up 0.8 this month. This is a great four-month start to any year.”

Santelli also lauded the fact that 0.8 percent is the “strongest” income month-over-month jump since May 2021, when it was 1.9 percent.

He went on to lament how the Trump administration is “criticized for just about anything under the sun,” despite the president’s “transparency” and positive accomplishments.

The article concludes:

“This administration is criticized for just about anything under the sun. I’ve never ever in my lifetime had glimpses into the politics of an administration in the form of transparency like this one. Why don’t we… give credit where credit is due?”

Part of the reason for the increase in consumer spending power is the lowering of the rate of inflation.

On Friday, The Daily Caller reported:

President Donald Trump achieved an economic victory after a prominent inflation reading dropped to its lowest reading in four years.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, one of The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measurement models, showed a decrease in inflation in April 2025 to a level not seen since March 2021, according to a Commerce Department report.

The index, which measures goods and services spending, showed an increase of $47.8 billion, or 0.2%, with major gains in housing and health care the report stated.

In April, the PCE and Core PCE, which measures without noting volatile food and energy prices, both rose by only 0.1% from the previous month, according to the report. The consumer price index also indicated a drop in inflation to a four-year low as well, with a seasonal adjusted 0.2% in April, as reported by the Daily Caller News Foundation earlier this month.

This is the economic relief Americans needed. If Congress would just pass the spending cuts recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Americans would enjoy more financial freedom.

Views On The Trump Economy Are Slowly Changing

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The Democrat rant that ‘the economic sky is falling’ seems to have fallen on deaf ears. The economy is slowly coming back after four years of inflation and slow job growth. The workforce participation rate is steady, but climbing slightly, and inflation is somewhat under control. We can all rejoice in the significant drop in gasoline prices.

On May 27th, CNBC posted the following headline:

Consumer confidence for May was much stronger than expected on optimism for trade deals

I love how when a Republican is in the White House, good news is always unexpected.

The article reports:

Consumer optimism got a much-needed boost in May on hopes for trade pace between the U.S. and China, according to a survey Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index leaped to 98.0, a 12.3-point increase from April and much better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 86.0.

Much of the positive sentiment, according to board officials, came from developments in the U.S.-China trade impasse, most notably President Donald Trump’s halting of the most severe tariffs on May 12.

“The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,” said Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board’s senior economist for global indicators.

May’s rebound followed five straight months of declines. Consumers and investors had grown sour on economic prospects amid the intensifying trade war that Trump has launched against U.S. global trading partners, with China a particular target.

I think all of us consumers feel optimistic when we don’t have to mortgage our house to buy a steak or fill up our gas tank.

The article concludes:

The present situation index increased to 135.9, up 4.8 points, and the expectations index posted a major surge to 72.8, a 17.4 point gain. Investors also showed more optimism, with 44% now expecting stocks to be higher over the next 12 months, up 6.4 percentage points from April.

Views on the labor market also improved, with 19.2% of respondents expecting more jobs to be available in the next six months, compared to 13.9% in April. At the same time, 26.6% expect fewer jobs, down from 32.4%.

Survey officials said sentiment improved across age, income and political affiliation, though noting that the “strongest improvements” came from Republicans.

Let’s hope Congress can pass laws that keep this going.

The Latest Inflation Numbers

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On Thursday, The Epoch Times posted an article about the latest inflation numbers.

The article reports:

Falling energy prices helped U.S. inflation cool in March, slowing to its lowest level in six months.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate declined to 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent in February, the lowest reading since September.

Economists had penciled in a reading of 2.6 percent.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by a better-than-expected 0.1 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also eased to 2.8 percent. This is the first time that annual core inflation has been below 3 percent since early 2021.

The core CPI increased by 0.1 percent month over month, below the consensus forecast of 0.3 percent.

The article concludes:

Minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting revealed that policymakers are worried about tariff-driven inflation risks.

“Participants assessed that uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased, with almost all participants viewing risks to inflation as tilted to the upside and risks to employment as tilted to the downside,” the meeting summary, released on April 9, reads.

However, based on President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, many doom-and-gloom projections “can be dialed down a bit,” according to Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

“The so-called 90-day pause doesn’t remove all uncertainty or potential negative impacts but is helpful,” Hamrick said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

“Fears about a huge pickup in inflation and near-term recession risks can be dialed down a bit.”

The next major inflation report will be the March producer price index, which measures the prices businesses pay for goods and services. Economists pay attention to this gauge as it can serve as a precursor to future inflation trends.

Energy prices are one of the things that fuel inflation. As American becomes energy independent again, the cost of crude oil will continue to drop, gasoline prices will continue to drop, and inflation will gradually come down. Even if OPEC cuts production in an attempt to keep oil prices high, it is quite possible that America will be able to make up for the cut. At that point, OPEC may not want to continue losing revenue because of their production cuts. We are in a very interesting time economically right now. Stay out of debt and pay your bills on time!

This Has Not Been Widely Reported

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On March 7th, NewsMax posted an article about the February Jobs Report. The media is ignoring the shift from foreign-born workers to American workers. That is good news.

The article reports:

President Trump praised the February jobs report for indicating that American-born workers gained 284,000 more jobs, while jobs held by foreign-born workers contracted by 87,000, Brietbart reports.

“Big gains for native-born Americans,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Friday. “For the first time in 15 months, the job gains for native-born Americans, people born in America, exceeded job gains for migrant and foreign-born workers.”

The article reminds us:

During the Biden administration, when inflation rose a cumulative 21.3%, Americans lost earning power in the labor in the labor and housing markets, as well as workplace productivity and training.

White-collar jobs and factory jobs were outsourced, while local communities became unstable due to progressive policies such as Defund the Police and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, says Steve Camarota, a researcher at the Center for Immigration Studies.

Further, as expanding blocs of migrants-turned-ethnic-voters demanded benefits, native-born Americans lost political power, Camaraota says.

There is room for more improvement for native-born Americans in the labor market, as current data shows that the share of Americans with jobs remains at historic lows.

For instance, Camarota notes, the labor force participation of U.S.-born men without a bachelor’s degree between the ages of 18 and 64 is 75.6%, down from 80.6% in 2006 and nearly 90% in the 1960s, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unfortunately, the Workforce Participation Rate has continued to drop slightly since September of last year, but hopefully that can be turned around quickly.

The Media Said Nothing!

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This was posted at Storm’n Norm’n’s blog. I have not idea who wrote it, but it is fantastic!

YOU SAID NOTHING

To whomever wrote this- Well said!! 

When millions of illegals were ushered in through the southern border, you said nothing! 

When they abandoned millions of dollars worth of military equipment in Afghanistan, you said nothing! 

When they flaunted a two tier justice system, one for them and one for everyone else, you said nothing!

When they covered up the Hunter Biden laptop, you said nothing!

When they passed a trillion dollar infrastructure bill that failed miserably, you said nothing! 

When they forced Americans to take an untested vaccine, you said nothing! 

When inflation crushed the middle class, you said nothing!

When they sent billions to Ukraine, you said nothing! 

When chemicals polluted the water in East Palestine, Ohio and they ignored it, you said nothing! 

When Americans were raped, robbed and murdered by illegals, you said nothing!

When they implanted Kamala as the presidential nominee without getting a single vote, you said nothing! 

When billionaire and anti American George Soros funded dozens of AG elections, you said nothing! 

When they turned our classrooms into liberal indoctrination camps, you said nothing! 

When they spent our tax dollars on inmates transition surgeries, you said nothing! 

When they gave the citizens of Hawaii $700 after losing their entire city, you said nothing! 

When they gave free money, food and 5 star hotel lodging to illegals, you said nothing! 

When they came for our free speech, you said nothing! 

When DEI weakened the military and put our national security at risk, you said nothing! 

When they colluded with the media to push false reports, you said nothing!

When it was open season on law enforcement and criminals reigned, you said nothing! 

When they weaponized the justice system to take down their political opponents, you said nothing!

When the bureaucrats took over the White House and ran the government, you said nothing! 

When they covered up Biden’s rapidly declining mental state, you said nothing! 

When they groomed our kids in school and hid it from the parents, you said nothing! 

When the drug epidemic exploded and 1000s died annually, you said nothing! 

When they accosted the jews on their campuses, you said nothing!

When they weaponized the intelligence agencies against Americans, you said nothing! 

When they spent $45 million dollars on “Diversity and Inclusion” scholarships in Burma, you said nothing!

When they let men play women’s sports, you said nothing! 

When they chanted “Death to America” and burned our flag, you said nothing! 

When they shutdown our energy production, and emboldened Russia, you said nothing! 

When the crime rates in American cities increased, you said nothing!

While thousands of veterans were left to sleep out on the streets, you said nothing!

When 300,000 migrant children went missing and no one had a clue, you said nothing!

When Joe Biden pardoned his friends and family, you said nothing!

When they sent billions to Iran and inadvertently funded Hamas, you said nothing! 

When men were celebrated for pretending to be women, you said nothing! 

When they let a Chinese Spy Ballon sail across America, you said nothing! 

When 50 intelligence agents all lied to bury the Hunter Biden laptop as Russian disinformation, you said nothing! 

When American citizens were taken hostage and held for a year in Gaza, you said nothing! 

When Facebook admitted, they conspired with the Biden administration to censor the truth, you said nothing!

When they cleaned the streets of San Francisco for the communist Chinese President Xi Jinping, you said nothing!

When Fauci and the WHO peddled covid 19 virus lies and covered up the origins, you said nothing! 

When they sealed the January 6th commission files or “lost them”, you said nothing! 

You saw the corruption, the lies, the bad policy, the anti American agenda and said nothing, so please spare us your crocodile tears and all your fake hysteria now. For 4 years you watched this country get run into the ground on all fronts and you said nothing!

Now, it’s our turn!!!! ?????

Posted by at 2/23/2025 10:06:00 PM

American Voters Are Smarter Than Some People Think They Are

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Politico just lost a lost of money it was getting from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Is it possible that now their reporting will be more balanced? The article below might be an indication of that!

On Tuesday, Politico posted an article about the gap between the numbers the government was posting about the economy and the public’s perception of the economy during the run-up to the 2024 election.

The article reports:

Before the presidential election, many Democrats were puzzled by the seeming disconnect between “economic reality” as reflected in various government statistics and the public’s perceptions of the economy on the ground. Many in Washington bristled at the public’s failure to register how strong the economy really was. They charged that right-wing echo chambers were conning voters into believing entirely preposterous narratives about America’s decline.

What they rarely considered was whether something else might be responsible for the disconnect — whether, for instance, government statistics were fundamentally flawed. What if the numbers supporting the case for broad-based prosperity were themselves misrepresentations? What if, in fact, darker assessments of the economy were more authentically tethered to reality?

The discrepancy between what Americans were dealing with economically and what the government was telling them may not have been intentional, but it was hidden in the way the government statistics were calculated.

The article explains:

I don’t believe those who went into this past election taking pride in the unemployment numbers understood that the near-record low unemployment figures — the figure was a mere 4.2 percent in November — counted homeless people doing occasional work as “employed.” But the implications are powerful. If you filter the statistic to include as unemployed people who can’t find anything but part-time work or who make a poverty wage (roughly $25,000), the percentage is actually 23.7 percent. In other words, nearly one of every four workers is functionally unemployed in America today — hardly something to celebrate.

The article also notes the problem with the way the inflation numbers were calculated:

But the CPI also perceives reality through a very rosy looking glass. Those with modest incomes purchase only a fraction of the 80,000 goods the CPI tracks, spending a much greater share of their earnings on basics like groceries, health care and rent. And that, of course, affects the overall figure: If prices for eggs, insurance premiums and studio apartment leases rise at a faster clip than those of luxury goods and second homes, the CPI underestimates the impact of inflation on the bulk of Americans. That, of course, is exactly what has happened.

My colleagues and I have modeled an alternative indicator, one that excludes many of the items that only the well-off tend to purchase — and tend to have more stable prices over time — and focuses on the measurements of prices charged for basic necessities, the goods and services that lower- and middle-income families typically can’t avoid. Here again, the results reveal how the challenges facing those with more modest incomes are obscured by the numbers. Our alternative indicator reveals that, since 2001, the cost of living for Americans with modest incomes has risen 35 percent faster than the CPI. Put another way: The resources required simply to maintain the same working-class lifestyle over the last two decades have risen much more dramatically than we’ve been led to believe.

A good statistician can get statistics to say anything he wants them to say, but Americans are smart enough to look at how far their paychecks are going rather than believing all of the statistics.