Tag Archives: workforce participation rate

Cruising Along

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The Trump economy is cruising along. According to an article posted at Just the News on Thursday,  the unemployment rate for June was 4.2%, and the economy added 57K jobs. The workforce participation rate dropped slightly from 6.18 to 6.15 percent.

The article reports:

Economists predicted the June unemployment rate would be 4.3% and that the economy would add 115K jobs, according to CNBC.

So we are slightly better on unemployment, but we need to add more jobs. I suspect that if crude oil prices remain at $70 per barrel or lower and inflation decreases (which it will as oil prices fall), we will see more jobs created and less unemployment. Right now the situation is very fluid, and I think a lot of employers are simply waiting for things to settle out.

 

 

The Latest Economic Numbers

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On Wednesday, CNBC posted an article about the January Jobs Report.

The article reports:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 for January, above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 55,000.
  • The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%. A more encompassing measure slipped to 8%, down 0.4 percentage point from December.
  • As has often been the case for the U.S. labor market, health care led job gains in December, adding 82,000 positions. Social assistance also rose, up 42,000, while construction added 33,000.
  • The BLS also released final benchmark revisions for the year prior to March 2025. Those numbers saw the initial counts revised lower by a total 898,000, about in line with expectations.

The Workforce Participation Rate eased up slightly in January to 62.5.

The article at CNBC concludes:

However, the December numbers provide some reason for optimism.

While the establishment survey showed more jobs than expected, the household survey was even stronger. Used to calculate the unemployment rate, the survey showed a gain of 528,000 workers for the month as the labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.5%.

The data likely solidifies the Federal Reserve staying on hold with interest rates.

Futures traders raised bets that the Fed would hold the line at its March meeting, though the expectation is still titled toward a cut in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

PJ Media also posted an article on the Jobs Report on Wednesday, but had a slightly different angle.

PJ Media notes:

The growth is focused on the private sector, which is good news because it is the private sector that drives economic growth. In fact, federal employment is at its lowest level as a share of the workforce since 1966. While economists expected private payrolls to grow by 70,000, the actual number is 172,000 for January. Government payrolls lost 42,000 jobs at both the state and federal levels combined.

…The economy added 5,000 manufacturing jobs, which is the opposite of economists’ prediction that it would lose 5,000 jobs, according to Fox Business. Job numbers for November and December were revised down, however, for a loss of about 17,000 jobs from the original statistics over those two months.

The DOL also announced on Feb. 10, “For the first time since 1999, U.S. steel production has surpassed Japan’s.” This is very important. For too long, we have been shipping our manufacturing overseas, especially to hostile nations like Communist China, leaving ourselves dependent on the whims of foreign leaders. Boosting American manufacturing is a necessary move for our independence and national security.

We are not yet where we need to be, but we are heading in the right direction.

About The November Jobs Report

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On Tuesday, CNBC reported that delayed jobs numbers show payrolls rose by 64,000 in November after falling by 105,000 in October. That’s good news, but there is even better news in the details of the report.

A Press Release from U.S. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer states:

“November’s jobs report shows our economy continues to gain momentum despite the economic mess President Trump inherited from the Biden administration and the reckless Democrat shutdown. With 64,000 jobs added in November, more and more Americans are coming off the sidelines and working in the private sector. Investment has been booming thanks to the President’s America First policies, leading to strong nonresidential construction growth.

“Importantly, the growth we are seeing is concentrated in the private sector and among native-born Americans. Federal employment has retreated to the lowest level in over a decade, completely reversing the previous administration’s federal hiring frenzy.

“The Trump Administration remains laser-focused on making life more affordable for all Americans. Average private sector weekly earnings are on track to rise 4.2 percent during the President’s first year in office, providing working families with more purchasing power as wages outpace inflation. We will continue to double down on our efforts to put American Workers First by building a Golden Age of economic prosperity.”

We have no workforce participation rate figures from October because of the government shutdown. In September the rate was 62.4; in November it was 62.5. That is a number that changes very slowly, but it is moving in the right direction. It was 62.4 in February, President Trump’s first full month in office.

One thing to notice in this press release and in the President’s speech on Wednesday night is the statement about the economic mess created by the Biden administration. Many Americans suffered under Biden economics. Because of the economic policies of President Trump, many Americans are now climbing out of the hole they were in because of the economic policies of the Biden administration. We need to send businessmen to Washington–not politicians.

The September Jobs Report Is Out

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The September jobs report was delayed because of the government shutdown. It is now out.

CNBC reported on November 20:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision, according to a long-delayed report Thursday from the BLS.
  • The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, the highest it’s been since October 2021. A broader measure edged lower to 8%.
  • Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
  • The report ends a data drought on the labor market that began in early September and continued through the record 44-day government shutdown.

The workforce participation rate eased up slightly to 62.4. Notice also that average hourly earnings increased slightly for the month and 3.8 per for the year. People also have more spending money due to the lower cost of gasoline.

The article notes:

The total level of those employed rose by 251,000 while the labor force increased by 470,000 to a fresh record of 171.2 million. The participation rate, which measures the share of the working-age population either working or seeking employment, edged higher to 62.4, the highest since May.

The rolls of full-time employment swelled by 673,000 while part-times fell by 573,000.

The article concludes:

The lack of comprehensive indicators has presented a challenge for Fed officials, who cut their benchmark interest rate in both September and October but face a tougher decision in December. Officials at the October meeting noted the difficulty in navigating policy without the usual array of economic metrics to rely on, and there was a significant inclination to forgo a December cut, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

With September’s payrolls count released, the BLS is preparing the first influx of other data in coming months. The bureau on Wednesday announced it will release jobs data for October and November simultaneously on Dec. 16. October’s numbers will not include the customary unemployment rate calculation as that comes from a survey of households that will not be able to be completed because of the shutdown.

It will be interesting to see the October and November numbers. Despite what the mainstream media is telling us, the economy seems to be turning around–jobs are increasing and the rate of inflation is slowing going down.

Does She Have A Future As A Political Spokesperson?

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On Monday, The Gateway Pundit reported:

President Trump dismissed Erika McEntarfer, the now-former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), after rightfully accusing her of deliberately inflating employment numbers ahead of the election to boost Kamala Harris’s campaign. He pointed to a falsely reported “all-time high” in job figures that was later revised down by nearly one million jobs, an error he described as the most severe in over 50 years.

Supporting McEntarfer’s firing, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cited a “partisan pattern” in BLS reporting and emphasized the need for a “fresh set of eyes” at the agency.

Apart from lying about the total number of jobs created, roughly a quarter of Biden’s job growth in some periods was government jobs funded by taxpayers, most job growth was part-time employment while full-time jobs remained flat, workforce participation declined which artificially improved the unemployment rate, and because of Biden’s catastrophic inflation, real wage growth was negative throughout his presidency.

When Biden handed off the economy to Trump, employment levels were still inferior to what Trump had built by 2019.

The article reviews some of the economic numbers under President Biden and President Trump:

The unemployment rate under Biden was also artificially improved due to a decline in labor force participation. Although the labor force participation rate rose from 61.3% in January 2021 to around 62.6–62.7% by mid-2024, it still remained 0.7 percentage points below the pre-pandemic level of 63.3% in February 2020.

When adjusted for population growth, nearly 2 million more Americans were on the sidelines compared to when President Trump was in office (Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). By July 2025, the rate had fallen again, dropping 0.5 percentage point over the year to 62.2%.

The article concludes:

All net job gains since the start of 2020 went to foreign-born workers, while native-born Americans experienced a net job loss. When comparing total employment to pre-pandemic levels, the increase was just 3.7 million jobs—still short of the 6.7 million jobs created under President Trump before the pandemic, meaning Biden fell about 3 million jobs behind that benchmark.

Please follow the link to read the entire article. Real wages fell during the Biden administration due to inflation, and generally speaking, Americans struggled as inflation got worse and high-paying jobs got harder to find.

Somehow This Was Left Out Of The News Coverage Of the Jobs Report

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The news that came out today on the June and July jobs reports sounded ominous. Why weren’t we adding the expected amount of jobs? What is happening to our workforce? There are some other numbers that need to be looked at to put the jobs report in perspective. The Workforce Participation Rate has been steady but dropping slightly since April–it was 62.6 in April, 62.4 in May, 62.3 in June, and 62.2 in July. We have no way of knowing how many of the federal employees who were laid off were reflected in those numbers. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1 percent and 4.2 percent in July. Again, not a serious increase.

There is, however, a number that is being overlooked.

On August 1st, this chart was posted at X:

American workers are coming back into the labor force.

We are in a period of transition. Inflation is down and wages are up. The federal government is shrinking and jobs are being moved into the private sector. The Stock Market did not like the jobs report, but as the report and the other numbers involved are analyzed, the Stock Market will rebound.

The important thing now is to hang on to your hat, celebrate the slowing of inflation and the cheaper fuel prices, and wait out the bumps.

The June Jobs Report Is Out

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On June 3rd, Fox Business posted an article about the June Jobs Report. The economy is improving rapidly, but there are still some weak spots.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added jobs in June at a faster pace than in recent months, despite economic uncertainty stemming from trade, tax and monetary policy.

The Labor Department on Thursday reported that employers added 147,000 jobs in June. That figure was above the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who projected 110,000 jobs would be added.

The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%, which was lower than economists’ expectations of 4.3%.

Job gains in the prior two months were both revised, with job creation in April revised up by 11,000 from a gain of 147,000 to 158,000; and May job gains were revised up by 5,000 from a gain of 139,000 to 144,000. Taken together, employment in April and May was 16,000 jobs higher than previously reported.

The workforce participation rate has remained steady.

I don’t know how to reconcile this information with a post from CNBC on Wednesday that reported:

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

The article at Fox Business concludes:

“The U.S. job market continues to largely stand tall and sturdy, even as headwinds mount – but it may be a tent increasingly held up by fewer poles,” said Cory Stahle, Indeed Hiring Lab economist. “The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare and social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will likely ring hollow.”

The market viewed the June jobs report as solidifying the outlook for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for its fifth consecutive meeting later this month. 

The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in July declined from 23.8% a day ago to 6.7% on Thursday following the report’s release, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

We need an interest cut now to help with the government’s interest payments and to help the real estate market. Right now the real estate market is being held hostage by the refusal to cut interest rates.

Views On The Trump Economy Are Slowly Changing

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The Democrat rant that ‘the economic sky is falling’ seems to have fallen on deaf ears. The economy is slowly coming back after four years of inflation and slow job growth. The workforce participation rate is steady, but climbing slightly, and inflation is somewhat under control. We can all rejoice in the significant drop in gasoline prices.

On May 27th, CNBC posted the following headline:

Consumer confidence for May was much stronger than expected on optimism for trade deals

I love how when a Republican is in the White House, good news is always unexpected.

The article reports:

Consumer optimism got a much-needed boost in May on hopes for trade pace between the U.S. and China, according to a survey Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index leaped to 98.0, a 12.3-point increase from April and much better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 86.0.

Much of the positive sentiment, according to board officials, came from developments in the U.S.-China trade impasse, most notably President Donald Trump’s halting of the most severe tariffs on May 12.

“The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,” said Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board’s senior economist for global indicators.

May’s rebound followed five straight months of declines. Consumers and investors had grown sour on economic prospects amid the intensifying trade war that Trump has launched against U.S. global trading partners, with China a particular target.

I think all of us consumers feel optimistic when we don’t have to mortgage our house to buy a steak or fill up our gas tank.

The article concludes:

The present situation index increased to 135.9, up 4.8 points, and the expectations index posted a major surge to 72.8, a 17.4 point gain. Investors also showed more optimism, with 44% now expecting stocks to be higher over the next 12 months, up 6.4 percentage points from April.

Views on the labor market also improved, with 19.2% of respondents expecting more jobs to be available in the next six months, compared to 13.9% in April. At the same time, 26.6% expect fewer jobs, down from 32.4%.

Survey officials said sentiment improved across age, income and political affiliation, though noting that the “strongest improvements” came from Republicans.

Let’s hope Congress can pass laws that keep this going.

The Numbers Tell The Story

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A few days ago, the mainstream media was melting down because the GDP for the first quarter of 2025 had dropped .3%. In decimal, that’s .003. That’s hardly a significant number. Meanwhile, some of the other first-quarter statistics are coming in, and they tell a rather different story.

On May 2, Breitbart reported:

Employers in the United States added 177,000 workers to their payrolls in April, the Department of Labor said Friday, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, defying predictions of labor market sluggishness following President Trump’s announcement of tariffs.

Economists had been expecting 130,000 jobs and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2 percent. The prior month’s jobs figure was revised down to 185,000 from 228,000

The strength in hiring came from the private sector, which added 167,000 jobs. Economists had expected private employers to add just 125,000 workers. This was nearly unchanged from the downwardly revised 170,000 jobs added in March.

The labor market drew in more workers, growing the supply of labor in April. The participation rate rose to 62.6 percent from 62.5 in the previous month. The number of people employed in the month rose by 436,000 to 163,944,000.

The average workweek expanded to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours, a sign that employer demand for labor grew in the month. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent. Compared with a year ago, average earnings are up 3.8 percent, significantly higher than the 2.4 percent gain in the consumer price index through March.

The rising wages combined with the falling inflation rate are good news for Americans. Most of us are seeing very nice changes at the gas pump. The job growth is in the private sector. Since President Trump took office, federal payrolls have contracted by 26,000. When the private sector grows, the economy grows.

According to the Government Executive Website:

President Biden has overseen a nearly 6% growth of the full-time, non-seasonal federal workforce during his four years in office, including a jump at nearly every major agency.

Most American consumers are very happy with the changes President Trump has made during his first 110 days.

This Has Not Been Widely Reported

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On March 7th, NewsMax posted an article about the February Jobs Report. The media is ignoring the shift from foreign-born workers to American workers. That is good news.

The article reports:

President Trump praised the February jobs report for indicating that American-born workers gained 284,000 more jobs, while jobs held by foreign-born workers contracted by 87,000, Brietbart reports.

“Big gains for native-born Americans,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Friday. “For the first time in 15 months, the job gains for native-born Americans, people born in America, exceeded job gains for migrant and foreign-born workers.”

The article reminds us:

During the Biden administration, when inflation rose a cumulative 21.3%, Americans lost earning power in the labor in the labor and housing markets, as well as workplace productivity and training.

White-collar jobs and factory jobs were outsourced, while local communities became unstable due to progressive policies such as Defund the Police and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, says Steve Camarota, a researcher at the Center for Immigration Studies.

Further, as expanding blocs of migrants-turned-ethnic-voters demanded benefits, native-born Americans lost political power, Camaraota says.

There is room for more improvement for native-born Americans in the labor market, as current data shows that the share of Americans with jobs remains at historic lows.

For instance, Camarota notes, the labor force participation of U.S.-born men without a bachelor’s degree between the ages of 18 and 64 is 75.6%, down from 80.6% in 2006 and nearly 90% in the 1960s, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unfortunately, the Workforce Participation Rate has continued to drop slightly since September of last year, but hopefully that can be turned around quickly.

The Numbers That Are Not Being Shared By The Mainstream Media

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On Thursday, Fox Business posted the following headline:

Layoffs surged 136% in January to second-highest level on record

The article reports:

The pace of job cuts by U.S. employers accelerated at the start of 2024, a sign the labor market is starting to deteriorate in the face of ongoing inflation and high interest rates.

That is according to a new report published by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which found that companies planned 82,307 job cuts in January, a substantial 136% increase from the previous month. However, that is down about 20% from the same time one year ago. It marked the second-highest layoff total for the month of January in data going back to 2009.

“Waves of layoff announcements hit U.S.-based companies in January after a quiet fourth quarter,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The cuts were “driven by broader economic trends and a strategic shift towards increased automation and AI adoption in various sectors, though in most cases, companies point to cost-cutting as the main driver for layoffs.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the workforce participation rate has remained steady since December at 62.5, down from 62.8 in November. Generally hiring is up in November due to Christmas shoppers.

The article concludes:

Another source of layoffs in January was retail stores, which trimmed 5,364 positions in January, a significant increase from the 110 layoffs announced in December. 

The top reason cited for job cuts last month was restructuring; companies blamed stores closing and artificial intelligence for the layoffs, as well.

The labor market has remained historically tight over the past year, defying economists’ expectations for a slowdown. Although economists say it is beginning to normalize after last year’s blistering pace, it is nowhere near breaking. 

The findings precede the release of the more closely watched January jobs report from the Labor Department on Friday morning, which is expected to show that employers hired 180,000 workers, following a gain of 216,000 in December. 

The unemployment rate is expected to inch higher to 3.8%.

As more people are laid off, there will be less demand for consumer goods. This theoretically will slow inflation, but at the cost of the American people. If the government truly wanted to slow inflation without hurting the average American, they would cut government spending, but that is not likely to happen.

The Economy Is Questionable At Best

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I love it when a Democrat is in power–when unemployment rises it is always a surprise–even at Fox News.

On November 3rd, Fox News posted an article about the current state of the American economy.

The article reports:

U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October, a sign the labor market is finally softening in the face of higher interest rates, stubborn inflation and other economic uncertainties.

Employers added 150,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, missing the 180,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, unexpectedly ticked up to 3.9% — the highest level in nearly two years. The pickup in the jobless rate suggests that layoffs are on the rise; the survey of households shows that the number of workers laid off rose in October by 92,000 from the previous month.

The unemployment number of 3.9% is not really a good measure of the economy unless it is looked at in relation to the workforce participation rate, currently slightly down at 62.7. Just to give some perspective, the workforce participation rate was 62.8% when President Trump took office in January 2017. It peaked at 63.3 in February 2020 (the ‘stop the spread’ shutdown began in March 2020). The reported unemployment rate is calculated only counting people who are looking for jobs. I suspect that if you counted everyone who is able to work but not working, the number would be much higher.

The article also notes:

The report also contained steep downward revisions to job growth at the end of the summer. Gains for August and September were revised down by a total of 101,000 jobs to a respective 165,000 and 297,000, the government said, suggesting that the labor market is weaker than it previously appeared.

The bottom line here is that the economy is not really growing although inflation is. For further details, please follow the link above to read the entire article.

 

Looking Behind The Obvious Numbers

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On Saturday, Trending Politics posted an article about the latest jobs numbers (which are being praised by the Biden administration).

The article reports:

President Biden and other top Democrat leaders have taken a victory lap over the latest jobs report that “soared past expectations” by showing that the U.S. added 336,000 jobs in September. While the Biden Administration has hailed the report as a win for “Bidenomics,” an economist with the Heritage Foundation took to X to explain why the report is actually “very troubling.”

…Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni analyzed the findings further in a lengthy X thread, however, explaining why the report is “very troubling.”

“September nonfarm payrolls jump 336k; Unemployment rate flat at 3.8%; Labor force participation rate remains depressed at 62.8%; Those not in the labor force rose to roughly 5 million more than pre-pandemic – this is artificially pushing down unemployment rate,” Antoni wrote. When adjusting for true labor participation rate, Antoni pegged the actual unemployment rate between 6.3 and 6.8 percent.

…Antoni also pointed out that roughly 22 percent of jobs created came from the government, “an unsustainable increase.”

“Remember that private sector workers have to support those public sector jobs,” he continued.

The economist also noted that every single job created was part-time, pointing out that 1.2 million part-time jobs have been created over the last three months. Full-time jobs actually dropped by 700,000 over the same period, the highest figure since COVID-19 lockdowns.

In addition, double counting of multiple jobholders accounted for 37 percent of supposed gains.

…Antoni concluded by pointing out that the massive increase in part-time jobs is slowing down wage growth. “Lastly, the loss of full-time jobs and their replacement w/ part-time work is helping slow wage growth, which is then negative after adjusting for inflation – real weekly earnings fell dramatically until Jun ’22 and have moved sideways since,” Antoni wrote.

“People [are] supplementing incomes w/ part-time jobs are goosing the headline numbers while underlying economic fundamentals remain weak; people absent from workforce pushing down unemployment rate; earnings not keeping up with inflation; don’t expect the job gains to last.”

It will be interesting to see if this ‘favorable’ jobs report results in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The Biden administration is also claiming that inflation is under control–tell that to the people who have recently gone shopping or filled up their gas tank.

Please follow the link to the article. It includes a number of graphs and lots of additional information.

Unemployment And The Workforce Participation Rate

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According to USA Today, the unemployment rate for June 2023 was 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent in May. However, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the workforce participation rate remained unchanged at 62.6. The percentage of Americans in the workforce or looking for jobs has not changed since March. That is not an indication of a growing economy.

USA Today reports:

Hiring slowed but remained sturdy in June as U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs despite inflation, high interest rates and nagging recession fears.  

Still, that’s the weakest showing since employers shed jobs in December 2020.

The unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.6%, the Labor Department said Friday. 

Economists had estimated that 225,000 jobs were added last month.

Payroll gains for April and May were revised down by a total of 110,000, depicting somewhat weaker hiring in the spring than believed. The May rise in jobs was downgraded to 306,000 from 339,000.

On Saturday, Breitbart reported:

During an interview on Bloomberg on Friday, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein stated that the increase in the black unemployment rate “was statistically insignificant in June,” but the increase in black unemployment in May was statistically significant.

Co-host Romaine Bostic asked, “Well, what about some demographics? Our International Economics Correspondent Michael McKee pointed this out to me, that, when you look at unemployment rates in terms of demographics here, it went down for white men, it went down for white women, but it went up for blacks, it went up for Hispanics, and it went up for those who only have a high school education or less.”

How many minorities who have a high school education or less are being replaced in the labor force by the illegal aliens coming across our southern border? How many companies are hiring illegal aliens and paying them under the table at a much lower rate than Americans would accept? It is possible that this is part of the reason the minorities and people with a high school education or less are having trouble finding work?

A Different Reality

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On Friday, Breitbart posted an article about President Biden’s recent statements regarding raising the debt ceiling.

The article reports:

During an interview with MSNBC on Friday aired on Friday’s broadcast of “The 11th Hour,” President Joe Biden claimed that “no one’s ever tied” their budget to raising the debt ceiling and responded to charges that former President Donald Trump was willing to play ball on issues while he won’t by stating that Trump hurt the economy and increased debt, while the economy under the Biden presidency is doing well.

Biden said, “[T]he idea someone, for the first time, is saying, unless you pass this ridiculous budget I have — which is the way I would characterize what the Republican MAGA budget is — unless you pass this budget, we’re not going to increase the debt limit and we’re going to go bankrupt, we’re going to — the United States of America is going to renege for the first time in history on its debt. And you just can’t — no one’s ever tied them together before. I’ve said to the Republican leader, here’s the deal: Take the debt limit, pass it like you did three times when Trump was president, and he increased the whole national debt for 200 years by 40%.”

The article concludes with the following statement by President Biden:

Biden responded, “Play ball? He ballooned the debt, he created unemploy[ment]. Look, when I came to office, we had incredibly high unemployment, we were in a situation where we had very little movement on anything going on. And look at the employment rate now. Just today, 250,000 new jobs, highest participation in 75 years of women in the job market, lowest unemployment rate for African Americans. Things are moving.”

Actually, in January 2020, when President Biden took office, the overall unemployment rate was 3.5, the unemployment rate for women was 3.2, and the unemployment rate for African Americans was 6.3 (statistics here). The current unemployment rate is 3.4 (not a significant change), the unemployment rate for women is 3.1, and the unemployment rate for African Americans is 4.7 (that number is the only number that actually represents significant improvement). But before you get too excited about that, let’s look at the workforce participation rate (statistics here). In January 2020, the workforce participation rate was 63.3 overall, the workforce participation rate for women was 59.2, and the workforce participation rate for African Americans was 62.8. The current workforce participation rate is 62.6, the current workforce participation rate for women is 58.6, and the current workforce participation rate for African Americans is 63.0. These numbers illustrate just one area where President Biden is either seriously misinformed or is lying.

The American Employment Situation Under The Biden Administration

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It’s hard enough for the average family to deal with the current level of inflation, but there is another factor working against Americans looking for good jobs.

On Friday, Breitbart posted the following headline: “Biden’s Labor Market: 1.9M Fewer Americans Working, 2M Foreign Workers Funneled into U.S. Jobs.”

That is not good news for American workers.

The article reports:

At the end of 2022, 1.9 million fewer Americans were working than in 2019 before the Chinese coronavirus pandemic while President Joe Biden’s administration has funneled two million additional foreign workers into United States jobs.

A new analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) shows that in the fourth quarter of 2022, close to two million fewer native-born Americans were working in jobs compared to the same time in 2019 while two million foreign-born workers have been added to the workforce compared to the same time period.

The thing to keep in mind here is that nothing happens in America without the approval of the uni-party. The uni-party is made up of corporate Republicans looking for cheap labor and Democrats looking for future voters. Bringing in foreign workers who will work for less and who may eventually become citizens satisfies both groups. Does anyone actually believe that if members of Congress wanted to solve the problem of people being imported to take American jobs that it wouldn’t be solved by now? It’s to the uni-party’s advantage to continue with open borders and an immigration policy that benefits those in both parties who want to maintain profits with cheap labor or maintain power with new voters.

The article notesL’

There has been a decades-long decline in the labor force participation rate of the U.S.-born of working-age (16 to 64), from 77.3 percent in 2000 to 73.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022. [Emphasis added]

…

If the labor force participation rate for the working-age U.S.-born in the fourth quarter of 2022 was what it had been in the fourth quarter of 2000, then 6.4 million more people would be in the labor force. [Emphasis added]

We need to close the southern and northern borders, create a sane immigration policy, and protect American jobs. We were on that path with President Trump. I would like to get back on that path.

The Numbers Are Moving In The Wrong Direction

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On Friday, The Daily Caller reported that the unemployment number is up and the workforce participation rate is down. That is exactly opposite of what we would be seeing if the economy were growing.

The article reports:

The unemployment range has hovered between 3.5% to 3.7% since March, and labor force participation has hovered 1.2 percentage points below the pre-pandemic standard set in February 2020, the BLS reported. Monthly job growth has been slowing, with employers adding 372,000 jobs per month in the third quarter of 2022, down from 543,000 in the third quarter of 2021, according to The Wall Street Journal.

…The BLS data contradicts a Wednesday report from payroll firm ADP, which had estimated that the manufacturing sector had cut 20,000 jobs in October. In contrast, the BLS data finds that manufacturers added 32,000 jobs in October, slower than the 37,000 per month average in 2022, but faster than the 30,000 per month seen in 2021.

The Democrats are already claiming that if the Republicans take the house in the mid-term elections, there will be a serious recession. Actually, it doesn’t matter who takes the house in the mid-term elections–there will be a serious recession as a result of the policies put in place by the Biden administration. A Republican Congress may be able to reverse some of these policies, but I am not sure if they will be able to do it fast enough. Meanwhile, after the mid-terms we will probably be dealing with a diesel fuel shortage and severe supply chain problems created by the Biden administration’s energy problems (not by the war in Ukraine).

Your vote matters, and your vote will significantly impact your pocketbook.

Keeping Americans’ Wages Low

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In September 2022, the Workforce Participation Rate was 62.3, slightly down from 62.4 in August. Part of that is due to the end of summer jobs, but even at that, the number is not where it needs to be. In February 2020 (before the pandemic), it was 63.4. That is the highest number since June 2013. Our economy is struggling right now, and Americans are struggling under the burden of inflation.

On Thursday, Breitbart reported the following:

President Joe Biden is set to import nearly 65,000 H-2B foreign visa workers to take blue-collar American jobs as roughly 11.6 million Americans remain jobless.

This week, Biden’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Labor Department announced that the administration would be allowing businesses to import a few less than 65,000 H-2B foreign visa workers to take nonagricultural jobs in construction, meatpacking, and landscaping, among other industries.

This is in addition to the 66,000 H-2B foreign visa workers that the Biden administration has already allowed into the United States labor market to take blue-collar jobs.

…The big business lobby is praising the inflation of the U.S. labor market as a victory but also suggested in a statement that they want more legal immigration overall so companies can rely on a steady stream of cheaper foreign workers as opposed to hiring unemployed Americans.

This is one example of the uni-party. Big business Republicans want cheap labor, and Democrats want new voters.

The article concludes:

When comparing the wages of H-2B foreign workers to the national wage average for each blue-collar industry, about 21 out of 25 of the industries offered lower wages to foreign workers than Americans.

Annually, the U.S. gives green cards to about 1.2 million legal immigrants, while another 1.4 million foreign workers are admitted every year to take American jobs. At the same time, hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens are added to the labor market every year, many on work permits given to them by the federal government.

Until we elect people who actually support American workers, this will continue.

Looking Past The Obvious

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On Friday, The Conservative Treehouse took a close look at the August jobs numbers. When you look past the obvious jobs increase, there are some troubling things hidden in those numbers.

The article reports:

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the August Jobs Report [DATA HERE].

The topline is a net gain of 315,000 jobs with an increase in unemployment to 3.7%.  However, the June and July jobs reports were revised down by 107,000 lower than previously reported, and if you look carefully at the data, you can see a serious problem.

Keep in mind, in the background is a release yesterday showing productivity within the economy dropping in the second quarter by 4.1%. [DATA]  Combine the drop in productivity with higher wages of 5.7% and total wage costs per unit of business output are up 10.1%.  Now we turn back to today’s employment release, and look at these three points of data:

(1) Unemployment for adult men and unemployment for Latinos increased in August.  Adult men and specifically adult Latino men are losing their jobs. (2) The average number of hours worked in August dropped 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours. (3) Total employment amid those aged 16 to 19-years of age increased by 363, 000 in August:

…A total of 363,000 more teenagers started working in August, yet the total net gain in employment overall was 315,000 jobs. That should be the headline of the August 2022 jobs report.

The good news is that the workforce participation rate did increase from 62.1 in July to 62.4 in August. At least it is moving in the right direction. During the Trump administration, the workforce participation rate hit 63.4 in January and February of 2020.

The Latest Excuse For The Low Workforce Participation Number

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On Saturday, Breitbart posted an article about the Biden administration’s explanation for the drop in the Workforce Participate Rate in July. The explanation was about on a par with ‘the dog ate my homework.’

The article reports:

Claim: The decline in the labor force participation rate fell in July because fewer teenagers were working.

On Friday, after the Department of Labor’s jobs numbers showed that the labor force participation rate declined from 62.2 percent to 62.1 percent despite employers taking on 528,000 new workers, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre claimed that the decline as “about teenagers.”

The article includes a Fact Check of the claim that teenagers were at fault:

Verdict: False.

While the teenage participation rate did fall in July from a seasonally adjusted 36.6 to 35.8, this represented a decline in the number of teenagers in the labor for of 126,000. That contributed to the decline but it contributed less than the decline in the number of adult men in the labor force.
Men aged twenty and over saw their labor force participation rate decline from 70.1 to 69.9. While smaller in percentage terms than the teenage decline, it was larger in absolute terms because it represented a 183,000 decline in participation. As a result, grown men contributed more than teenagers to the decline in the participation rate. The data show that men aged twenty-five to thirty-four saw their labor force participation drop by 136,000, for a decline from 88.9 to 88.3.

If the Inflation Reduction Act becomes law, you can expect the Workforce Participation Rate to decline further.

Let’s Not Celebrate Too Soon

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On Friday, CNS News posted an article about the jobs report that was recently released. The mainstream media is thrilled that non-farm payrolls added a whopping 528,000 in July, more than double the estimate of 250,000; and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in July from 3.6 percent in June. Unfortunately, that does not really represent the whole picture.

The article notes:

But on the downside, the number of Americans not in the labor force — no job and not looking for one — climbed above the 100,000,000 mark again, settling at 100,051,000 in July. That’s a 239,000 increase from June; and it follows an increase of 510,000 from May to June, when the number rose to 99,812,000.

The “not in the labor force” category includes retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work.

People who don’t have a job and aren’t looking for one put downward pressure on the important labor force participation rate, which dropped a tenth of a point to 62.1 percent in July.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, a lower labor force participation rate is associated with lower gross domestic product (GDP) and lower tax revenues. It is also associated with larger federal outlays, because people who are not in the labor force are more likely to enroll in certain federal benefit programs.

The article concludes:

In contrast to the aging of the population, CBO said it expects two long-term trends to boost participation in the labor force:

The population is becoming more educated, and people with more education tend to participate in the labor force at higher rates than do people with less education. And increasing longevity is expected to lead people to continue working until increasingly older ages.

But CBO said it expects those two trends to be mostly offset by other trends that will put downward pressure on the labor force participation rate.

The unemployment rate is projected to gradually rise over the next few years. By 2028, it is projected to reach 4.5 percent, CBO said.

We saw what policies actually increase the workforce participation rate and gross domestic product (GDP) during the Trump administration. A return to those policies would increase government revenue, slow down inflation, and improve the overall economy. However, the Biden administration is so intent on undoing everything President Trump did, they don’t care if they destroy the American economy in the process.

The Real Reason Behind The Awful Jobs Report

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“Experts” predicted that the Biden administration would see 400,000 new jobs created in December. The actual number was 199,000. The good news is that the Workforce Participation Rate did not drop. It is holding steady at 61.9. That’s not a great number, but at least it is holding steady.

On Friday, Breitbart noted:

The jobless rates for whites fell half a percentage point to 3.2 percent, while the rate for blacks rose from 6.7 percent to 7.1 percent, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

On Friday, The Conservative Treehouse posted an article detailing some of the reasons for the low jobs number. It’s not the coronavirus as President Biden claims.

The article reports:

Keep in mind, the November jobs report showed a decline in retail jobs of 29,000, and this report shows that despite November & December being the largest shopping months for holidays, the retail sector jobs were nonexistent.

The issue is what we have discussed here for months, inflation.

The job quits and JOLT turnover reports from last week showed massive numbers of employees quitting their jobs.  In part this is pressure from the vaccine mandate (more on that later).  However, in the majority what we are seeing is employment decisions based on inflation hitting the labor market.

Additionally, the current BLS report does not have the Omicron “winter of death” employment impact within it.  That impact will come in the January report, and it will not be good.  But let’s get down to reconciling December jobs data with reality on the ground.

Inflation is chewing up income amid the workforce.  This is not debatable, and this is reflected in every opinion poll and economic statistic that has surfaced for the past six months.   The BLS report somewhat surprised people in the 0.6% wage gains, and average wage increases are now 4.7% year over year.  That should be a good thing.  However, inflation at 20 to 50+% on energy, fuel, gasoline and food means a 4.7% growth in wages is a pittance.

Unfortunately, the article does not conclude with good news:

We have a looming problem that does not reconcile with 3.9% unemployment. The pundits are perplexed.

The confusion is because NO ECONOMIC data has ever shown this level of inflation in such a short period of time. There are no models. There is no experience in this situation. This is not like the 1970’s where oil prices were the direct and primary cause. This is different, because we are experiencing shortages and price increases specifically due to policy.

Energy policy is killing us (oil and natural gas prices). Legislative policy is killing us (spending and bailouts). Monetary policy is killing us (cheap lending, quantitative easing, devaluation). All of this is causing massive inflation at a level we have never seen in history, and it’s on everything.

Then we throw in a vaccine mandate, and perpetual fear of a virus that hits both the demand side and the employment side simultaneously…. and, well, here you go. The disruptions inside the economy are like deep cuts, thousands of them, and they are not accidental.

Many, if not most, of these disruptions are being done at the altar of climate change and the Green New Deal.

COVID-19 mitigation and mandates only make this worse.

The disruptions in the supply chain are a direct result of policy. Now, we have to prepare for inflation AND shortages. This will not get better in 2022.

Prepare your family accordingly. I believe those of you reading this article represent the people best prepared for what is about to happen.

Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.

Welcome To The Biden Economy

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The Epoch Times is reporting today that U.S. employers added fewer than 200,000 jobs in September. The workforce participation rate is slightly down from August at 61.6 (it was 61.7 in August).

The Epoch Times reports:

The Labor Department’s jobs report, released Oct. 8, shows that non-farm payroll employment rose by a paltry 194,000 last month, down from last month’s upwardly revised 366,000 and far below the FactSet-provided consensus forecasts of 500,000.

“The latest snapshot of the job market is a bit of a bad news, good news affair,” Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

“It delivered a surprisingly weak payrolls number,” Hamrick said, adding, “at the same time, the nation’s unemployment rate slipped four-tenths to a pandemic era low of 4.8 percent.”

The total number of unemployed persons fell by 710,000 to 7.7 million, the report showed. While that’s considerably lower than the pandemic-era high, it remains elevated compared to the 5.7 million just prior to the outbreak.

Leisure and hospitality, including bars and restaurants, generated only 74,000 jobs, a result that’s below expectations. There was also weakness in local government educations jobs, which fell by 144,000 last month despite schools reopening.

There was relative strength in manufacturing, which added 27,000 jobs, and transportation and warehousing saw a jobs boost of 47,000 positions.

Overall, government payrolls fell by 123,000 jobs in September, which was offset by an increase of 317,000 in private payrolls.

The labor force participation rate, which is a measure of people working or actively looking for work, remained little changed at 61.6 percent, a historically depressed level. In February 2020, the labor force participation rate stood at 63.6 percent, with a historical peak of 67.3 percent in April 2000.

The article does note that the top ten states leading the economic recovery all have Republican governors. The article also notes that generally speaking red states have dominated the economic recovery.

The article also includes the White House attempt to spin the bad news:

White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain took to Twitter to defend President Joe Biden’s record on job creation.

“The unemployment rate is now down to 4.8 percent—in just eight months. We’ve created 2x more jobs under @POTUS in his first nine months than any administration in history,” Klain wrote.

Besides painting a dim view of the vigor of the labor market recovery, the lackluster jobs report could also delay an expected decision by the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back monetary support before the end of the year.

The labor market remains a key touchstone for the Fed, with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell repeatedly hinting that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start trimming asset purchases.

Investors are looking for clues as to when the Fed will initiate the much-anticipated rollback of its massive $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities, one of the crisis support measures the central bank deployed last year to help lift the economy from the pandemic recession.

If you are still looking for truth in the mainstream media, you are going to be on a long search.

Elections Matter In Economics

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Townhall posted an article today about the economic recovery in America after the coronavirus.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate rose to 5.9 percent according to the latest data released Friday morning from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Among the industries with the most notable growth — as more states lift restrictions put in place due to the Wuhan coronavirus — were leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and professional and business services.

The article notes the impact of the increased unemployment benefits:

The stronger-than-expected job growth is due in part to states that have ended expanded or extended federal unemployment benefits that often incentivized citizens to stay out of the workforce. As the Wall Street Journal noted recently, the number of Americans taking unemployment benefits is “falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states canceling enhanced and extended payments this month, suggesting that ending the aid could push more people to take jobs.”

As June’s employment data demonstrates, ending the extended benefits did push more people to enter the workforce because, for some, it was no longer more financially beneficial to avoid returning to work. 

The article concludes:

These states, unsurprisingly, are almost all led by Republicans. Even Politico noted that, when it comes to the 15 states that have already returned to pre-Wuhan coronavirus economic activity, “12 are led by Republican governors.” On the flip side, “the 10 states reporting the lowest levels of activity since January 2020, seven — including New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois — are run by Democratic governors.”

The data from these states, along with today’s jobs report for June, suggest conservative leadership and policies are a significant predictor of a strong economic recovery.

The Republican National Committee recently heralded the economic growth in GOP-led states based on Labor Department data that found 18 of the top 20 states for jobs recovered since COVID hit have Republican-controlled legislatures, as do 17 of the 20 states with the lowest unemployment. 

The workforce participation rate is unchanged from May–it is holding at 61.6 percent.

The Recovery Was Going Well Until We Started Paying People Not To Work

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Yesterday Forbes posted an article about the May Jobs Report. The article notes that payroll jobs rose by 559,000 in May, better than April, but much slower than March.

The chart below shows the changes in the Workforce Participation Rate during the last year (according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics):

As you can see, the coronavirus impacted the Workforce Participation Rate. The Workforce Participation Rate had been hovering at about 63 percent before the virus hit and the lockdowns occurred. Because of the additional money being paid in unemployment benefits, it may be a while before it goes back up to 63 percent.

The article at Forbes reports:

Perhaps the most important number in the jobs report was another notable increase in hourly wages: they rose by 6% on an annual basis, after also rising by 8% last month.

The combination of sluggish employment growth but rising wages tell a clear story: anecdotes about employers having difficulty hiring are true, and they are raising worker wages to attract or retain more of them. So labor demand (jobs) is rising faster than labor supply (workers).

What is holding workers back? The evidence here is less clear, but it is likely a range of factors: the $300 weekly bump-up in Unemployment Insurance payment likely plays a small role; it should matter most in leisure/hospitality where job growth was strongest, though perhaps slower than employers wanted. Recent news stories of workers refusing to go back to their old restaurant jobs suggests that workers there are tired of low wages, unstable hours and possible exposure to Covid.

Policies matter. I believe that if the Biden administration had just left the Trump economic policies alone, we would be in a much better place.