The Numbers Are Moving In The Wrong Direction

On Friday, The Daily Caller reported that the unemployment number is up and the workforce participation rate is down. That is exactly opposite of what we would be seeing if the economy were growing.

The article reports:

The unemployment range has hovered between 3.5% to 3.7% since March, and labor force participation has hovered 1.2 percentage points below the pre-pandemic standard set in February 2020, the BLS reported. Monthly job growth has been slowing, with employers adding 372,000 jobs per month in the third quarter of 2022, down from 543,000 in the third quarter of 2021, according to The Wall Street Journal.

…The BLS data contradicts a Wednesday report from payroll firm ADP, which had estimated that the manufacturing sector had cut 20,000 jobs in October. In contrast, the BLS data finds that manufacturers added 32,000 jobs in October, slower than the 37,000 per month average in 2022, but faster than the 30,000 per month seen in 2021.

The Democrats are already claiming that if the Republicans take the house in the mid-term elections, there will be a serious recession. Actually, it doesn’t matter who takes the house in the mid-term elections–there will be a serious recession as a result of the policies put in place by the Biden administration. A Republican Congress may be able to reverse some of these policies, but I am not sure if they will be able to do it fast enough. Meanwhile, after the mid-terms we will probably be dealing with a diesel fuel shortage and severe supply chain problems created by the Biden administration’s energy problems (not by the war in Ukraine).

Your vote matters, and your vote will significantly impact your pocketbook.

Keeping Americans’ Wages Low

In September 2022, the Workforce Participation Rate was 62.3, slightly down from 62.4 in August. Part of that is due to the end of summer jobs, but even at that, the number is not where it needs to be. In February 2020 (before the pandemic), it was 63.4. That is the highest number since June 2013. Our economy is struggling right now, and Americans are struggling under the burden of inflation.

On Thursday, Breitbart reported the following:

President Joe Biden is set to import nearly 65,000 H-2B foreign visa workers to take blue-collar American jobs as roughly 11.6 million Americans remain jobless.

This week, Biden’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Labor Department announced that the administration would be allowing businesses to import a few less than 65,000 H-2B foreign visa workers to take nonagricultural jobs in construction, meatpacking, and landscaping, among other industries.

This is in addition to the 66,000 H-2B foreign visa workers that the Biden administration has already allowed into the United States labor market to take blue-collar jobs.

…The big business lobby is praising the inflation of the U.S. labor market as a victory but also suggested in a statement that they want more legal immigration overall so companies can rely on a steady stream of cheaper foreign workers as opposed to hiring unemployed Americans.

This is one example of the uni-party. Big business Republicans want cheap labor, and Democrats want new voters.

The article concludes:

When comparing the wages of H-2B foreign workers to the national wage average for each blue-collar industry, about 21 out of 25 of the industries offered lower wages to foreign workers than Americans.

Annually, the U.S. gives green cards to about 1.2 million legal immigrants, while another 1.4 million foreign workers are admitted every year to take American jobs. At the same time, hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens are added to the labor market every year, many on work permits given to them by the federal government.

Until we elect people who actually support American workers, this will continue.

Looking Past The Obvious

On Friday, The Conservative Treehouse took a close look at the August jobs numbers. When you look past the obvious jobs increase, there are some troubling things hidden in those numbers.

The article reports:

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the August Jobs Report [DATA HERE].

The topline is a net gain of 315,000 jobs with an increase in unemployment to 3.7%.  However, the June and July jobs reports were revised down by 107,000 lower than previously reported, and if you look carefully at the data, you can see a serious problem.

Keep in mind, in the background is a release yesterday showing productivity within the economy dropping in the second quarter by 4.1%. [DATA]  Combine the drop in productivity with higher wages of 5.7% and total wage costs per unit of business output are up 10.1%.  Now we turn back to today’s employment release, and look at these three points of data:

(1) Unemployment for adult men and unemployment for Latinos increased in August.  Adult men and specifically adult Latino men are losing their jobs. (2) The average number of hours worked in August dropped 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours. (3) Total employment amid those aged 16 to 19-years of age increased by 363, 000 in August:

…A total of 363,000 more teenagers started working in August, yet the total net gain in employment overall was 315,000 jobs. That should be the headline of the August 2022 jobs report.

The good news is that the workforce participation rate did increase from 62.1 in July to 62.4 in August. At least it is moving in the right direction. During the Trump administration, the workforce participation rate hit 63.4 in January and February of 2020.

The Latest Excuse For The Low Workforce Participation Number

On Saturday, Breitbart posted an article about the Biden administration’s explanation for the drop in the Workforce Participate Rate in July. The explanation was about on a par with ‘the dog ate my homework.’

The article reports:

Claim: The decline in the labor force participation rate fell in July because fewer teenagers were working.

On Friday, after the Department of Labor’s jobs numbers showed that the labor force participation rate declined from 62.2 percent to 62.1 percent despite employers taking on 528,000 new workers, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre claimed that the decline as “about teenagers.”

The article includes a Fact Check of the claim that teenagers were at fault:

Verdict: False.

While the teenage participation rate did fall in July from a seasonally adjusted 36.6 to 35.8, this represented a decline in the number of teenagers in the labor for of 126,000. That contributed to the decline but it contributed less than the decline in the number of adult men in the labor force.
Men aged twenty and over saw their labor force participation rate decline from 70.1 to 69.9. While smaller in percentage terms than the teenage decline, it was larger in absolute terms because it represented a 183,000 decline in participation. As a result, grown men contributed more than teenagers to the decline in the participation rate. The data show that men aged twenty-five to thirty-four saw their labor force participation drop by 136,000, for a decline from 88.9 to 88.3.

If the Inflation Reduction Act becomes law, you can expect the Workforce Participation Rate to decline further.

Let’s Not Celebrate Too Soon

On Friday, CNS News posted an article about the jobs report that was recently released. The mainstream media is thrilled that non-farm payrolls added a whopping 528,000 in July, more than double the estimate of 250,000; and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in July from 3.6 percent in June. Unfortunately, that does not really represent the whole picture.

The article notes:

But on the downside, the number of Americans not in the labor force — no job and not looking for one — climbed above the 100,000,000 mark again, settling at 100,051,000 in July. That’s a 239,000 increase from June; and it follows an increase of 510,000 from May to June, when the number rose to 99,812,000.

The “not in the labor force” category includes retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work.

People who don’t have a job and aren’t looking for one put downward pressure on the important labor force participation rate, which dropped a tenth of a point to 62.1 percent in July.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, a lower labor force participation rate is associated with lower gross domestic product (GDP) and lower tax revenues. It is also associated with larger federal outlays, because people who are not in the labor force are more likely to enroll in certain federal benefit programs.

The article concludes:

In contrast to the aging of the population, CBO said it expects two long-term trends to boost participation in the labor force:

The population is becoming more educated, and people with more education tend to participate in the labor force at higher rates than do people with less education. And increasing longevity is expected to lead people to continue working until increasingly older ages.

But CBO said it expects those two trends to be mostly offset by other trends that will put downward pressure on the labor force participation rate.

The unemployment rate is projected to gradually rise over the next few years. By 2028, it is projected to reach 4.5 percent, CBO said.

We saw what policies actually increase the workforce participation rate and gross domestic product (GDP) during the Trump administration. A return to those policies would increase government revenue, slow down inflation, and improve the overall economy. However, the Biden administration is so intent on undoing everything President Trump did, they don’t care if they destroy the American economy in the process.

The Real Reason Behind The Awful Jobs Report

“Experts” predicted that the Biden administration would see 400,000 new jobs created in December. The actual number was 199,000. The good news is that the Workforce Participation Rate did not drop. It is holding steady at 61.9. That’s not a great number, but at least it is holding steady.

On Friday, Breitbart noted:

The jobless rates for whites fell half a percentage point to 3.2 percent, while the rate for blacks rose from 6.7 percent to 7.1 percent, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

On Friday, The Conservative Treehouse posted an article detailing some of the reasons for the low jobs number. It’s not the coronavirus as President Biden claims.

The article reports:

Keep in mind, the November jobs report showed a decline in retail jobs of 29,000, and this report shows that despite November & December being the largest shopping months for holidays, the retail sector jobs were nonexistent.

The issue is what we have discussed here for months, inflation.

The job quits and JOLT turnover reports from last week showed massive numbers of employees quitting their jobs.  In part this is pressure from the vaccine mandate (more on that later).  However, in the majority what we are seeing is employment decisions based on inflation hitting the labor market.

Additionally, the current BLS report does not have the Omicron “winter of death” employment impact within it.  That impact will come in the January report, and it will not be good.  But let’s get down to reconciling December jobs data with reality on the ground.

Inflation is chewing up income amid the workforce.  This is not debatable, and this is reflected in every opinion poll and economic statistic that has surfaced for the past six months.   The BLS report somewhat surprised people in the 0.6% wage gains, and average wage increases are now 4.7% year over year.  That should be a good thing.  However, inflation at 20 to 50+% on energy, fuel, gasoline and food means a 4.7% growth in wages is a pittance.

Unfortunately, the article does not conclude with good news:

We have a looming problem that does not reconcile with 3.9% unemployment. The pundits are perplexed.

The confusion is because NO ECONOMIC data has ever shown this level of inflation in such a short period of time. There are no models. There is no experience in this situation. This is not like the 1970’s where oil prices were the direct and primary cause. This is different, because we are experiencing shortages and price increases specifically due to policy.

Energy policy is killing us (oil and natural gas prices). Legislative policy is killing us (spending and bailouts). Monetary policy is killing us (cheap lending, quantitative easing, devaluation). All of this is causing massive inflation at a level we have never seen in history, and it’s on everything.

Then we throw in a vaccine mandate, and perpetual fear of a virus that hits both the demand side and the employment side simultaneously…. and, well, here you go. The disruptions inside the economy are like deep cuts, thousands of them, and they are not accidental.

Many, if not most, of these disruptions are being done at the altar of climate change and the Green New Deal.

COVID-19 mitigation and mandates only make this worse.

The disruptions in the supply chain are a direct result of policy. Now, we have to prepare for inflation AND shortages. This will not get better in 2022.

Prepare your family accordingly. I believe those of you reading this article represent the people best prepared for what is about to happen.

Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.

Welcome To The Biden Economy

The Epoch Times is reporting today that U.S. employers added fewer than 200,000 jobs in September. The workforce participation rate is slightly down from August at 61.6 (it was 61.7 in August).

The Epoch Times reports:

The Labor Department’s jobs reportreleased Oct. 8, shows that non-farm payroll employment rose by a paltry 194,000 last month, down from last month’s upwardly revised 366,000 and far below the FactSet-provided consensus forecasts of 500,000.

“The latest snapshot of the job market is a bit of a bad news, good news affair,” Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

“It delivered a surprisingly weak payrolls number,” Hamrick said, adding, “at the same time, the nation’s unemployment rate slipped four-tenths to a pandemic era low of 4.8 percent.”

The total number of unemployed persons fell by 710,000 to 7.7 million, the report showed. While that’s considerably lower than the pandemic-era high, it remains elevated compared to the 5.7 million just prior to the outbreak.

Leisure and hospitality, including bars and restaurants, generated only 74,000 jobs, a result that’s below expectations. There was also weakness in local government educations jobs, which fell by 144,000 last month despite schools reopening.

There was relative strength in manufacturing, which added 27,000 jobs, and transportation and warehousing saw a jobs boost of 47,000 positions.

Overall, government payrolls fell by 123,000 jobs in September, which was offset by an increase of 317,000 in private payrolls.

The labor force participation rate, which is a measure of people working or actively looking for work, remained little changed at 61.6 percent, a historically depressed level. In February 2020, the labor force participation rate stood at 63.6 percent, with a historical peak of 67.3 percent in April 2000.

The article does note that the top ten states leading the economic recovery all have Republican governors. The article also notes that generally speaking red states have dominated the economic recovery.

The article also includes the White House attempt to spin the bad news:

White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain took to Twitter to defend President Joe Biden’s record on job creation.

“The unemployment rate is now down to 4.8 percent—in just eight months. We’ve created 2x more jobs under @POTUS in his first nine months than any administration in history,” Klain wrote.

Besides painting a dim view of the vigor of the labor market recovery, the lackluster jobs report could also delay an expected decision by the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back monetary support before the end of the year.

The labor market remains a key touchstone for the Fed, with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell repeatedly hinting that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start trimming asset purchases.

Investors are looking for clues as to when the Fed will initiate the much-anticipated rollback of its massive $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities, one of the crisis support measures the central bank deployed last year to help lift the economy from the pandemic recession.

If you are still looking for truth in the mainstream media, you are going to be on a long search.

Elections Matter In Economics

Townhall posted an article today about the economic recovery in America after the coronavirus.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate rose to 5.9 percent according to the latest data released Friday morning from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Among the industries with the most notable growth — as more states lift restrictions put in place due to the Wuhan coronavirus — were leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and professional and business services.

The article notes the impact of the increased unemployment benefits:

The stronger-than-expected job growth is due in part to states that have ended expanded or extended federal unemployment benefits that often incentivized citizens to stay out of the workforce. As the Wall Street Journal noted recently, the number of Americans taking unemployment benefits is “falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states canceling enhanced and extended payments this month, suggesting that ending the aid could push more people to take jobs.”

As June’s employment data demonstrates, ending the extended benefits did push more people to enter the workforce because, for some, it was no longer more financially beneficial to avoid returning to work. 

The article concludes:

These states, unsurprisingly, are almost all led by Republicans. Even Politico noted that, when it comes to the 15 states that have already returned to pre-Wuhan coronavirus economic activity, “12 are led by Republican governors.” On the flip side, “the 10 states reporting the lowest levels of activity since January 2020, seven — including New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois — are run by Democratic governors.”

The data from these states, along with today’s jobs report for June, suggest conservative leadership and policies are a significant predictor of a strong economic recovery.

The Republican National Committee recently heralded the economic growth in GOP-led states based on Labor Department data that found 18 of the top 20 states for jobs recovered since COVID hit have Republican-controlled legislatures, as do 17 of the 20 states with the lowest unemployment. 

The workforce participation rate is unchanged from May–it is holding at 61.6 percent.

The Recovery Was Going Well Until We Started Paying People Not To Work

Yesterday Forbes posted an article about the May Jobs Report. The article notes that payroll jobs rose by 559,000 in May, better than April, but much slower than March.

The chart below shows the changes in the Workforce Participation Rate during the last year (according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics):

As you can see, the coronavirus impacted the Workforce Participation Rate. The Workforce Participation Rate had been hovering at about 63 percent before the virus hit and the lockdowns occurred. Because of the additional money being paid in unemployment benefits, it may be a while before it goes back up to 63 percent.

The article at Forbes reports:

Perhaps the most important number in the jobs report was another notable increase in hourly wages: they rose by 6% on an annual basis, after also rising by 8% last month.

The combination of sluggish employment growth but rising wages tell a clear story: anecdotes about employers having difficulty hiring are true, and they are raising worker wages to attract or retain more of them. So labor demand (jobs) is rising faster than labor supply (workers).

What is holding workers back? The evidence here is less clear, but it is likely a range of factors: the $300 weekly bump-up in Unemployment Insurance payment likely plays a small role; it should matter most in leisure/hospitality where job growth was strongest, though perhaps slower than employers wanted. Recent news stories of workers refusing to go back to their old restaurant jobs suggests that workers there are tired of low wages, unstable hours and possible exposure to Covid.

Policies matter. I believe that if the Biden administration had just left the Trump economic policies alone, we would be in a much better place.

Economic Growth Is Not Responding In A Positive Way To President Biden’s Economic Plans

Breitbart is reporting today that the number of jobs added to the American economy in April was far below expectations.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added just 266,000  jobs in April and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1 percent, the Labor Department said in its monthly labor assessment Friday, smashing expectations.

This was far below expectations. Analysts surveyed by Econoday had predicted Friday’s report would show between 755,000 and 1.25 million workers added to payrolls in April. The median forecast was for 938,000 and an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent.

The news is not all bad–it’s just not what the economists wanted. They were hoping that the Biden administration would continue the good news of the Trump administration. Based on the policies espoused by the Biden administration, that is a false hope. The unemployment rate in March was 6 percent, so unemployment only went up slightly (not down as predicted). There is, however, another figure that needs to be looked at–the workforce participation rate. The workforce participation rate is the section of working population in the age group of 16-64 in the economy currently employed or seeking employment. That number was 61.5 in March and 61.7 in April. Changes in that number occur gradually, and an upward trend is a good thing.

The article concludes:

In April, 18.3 percent of workers performed their jobs remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 21.0 percent in the prior month.

The number of people saying they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic declined to 9.2 million, from 11.4 million in the previous month. Among those who reported in April that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 9.3 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed
from the previous month.

Among those not in the labor force in April, 2.8 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 3.7 million the month before.

We are actually moving slowly in a good direction. The question is whether or not that positive economic momentum will continue under President Biden’s economic policies.

Stating The Obvious

Breitbart is reporting today that Council of Economic Advisers chair Cecilia Rouse appeared on Fox News Sunday and stated that they expect to see some “transitory inflation” as America comes out of the coronavirus pandemic. Just for the record, the pandemic won’t be the cause of any “transitory inflation”–the runaway spending will be.

The article reports:

Rouse said, “These are very serious concerns, and we know that coming out of an extremely deep recession that there are going to be bumps along the way. We expect that there is going to be supply chain disruptions. That will cause some transitory increases in prices. ”

She continued, “We know that there are some places where employers are struggling to workers because, let’s face it — we’re still in the middle of the pandemic. Some workers would like to go back to work but have font child care because schools are not open and the pandemic is still out of control in certain parts of our country. When we get to the other side of this pandemic, I fully expect that our labor market will come back and be flourishing. That said, we do expect some transitory price increases. The Feds expects that as well. We do not see evidence at the moment that those have become what we call de-anchored so that we expect runaway inflation. That said, we know we have to be vigilant, and we are watching the data. We expect, at the most, transitory inflation. That is what we expect coming out of a big recession.”

First of all, the ‘big recession’ peaked in April of last year. The unemployment rate hit 14.8 in April and the Workforce Participation Rate hit 60.2. Both have been steadily improving for the last year. If you want to avoid inflation, stop flooding the economy with free money and encourage people to open up the schools and go back to work.

Good News On The Economic Front

CNBC reported the following yesterday:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 in October and the unemployment rate fell to 6.9%.
  • Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had forecast 530,000 and 7.7%, respectively.
  • Hospitality and professional and business services showed the biggest gains. Government job losses subtracted from the total.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Workforce Participation Rate went from 61.4 in September to 61.7 in October.

CNBC reports:

Employment growth was better than expected in October and the unemployment rate fell sharply even as the U.S. faces the challenge of surging coronavirus cases and the impact they could have on the nascent economic recovery.

The Labor Department reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 and the unemployment rate was at 6.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a payroll gain of 530,000 and an unemployment rate of 7.7%, a touch lower than the September level of 7.9%.

October’s gain was just slightly off the September pace of 672,000.

I have asked this questions before. Why is growth always better than expected when a Republican is in the White House?

We are in an economic recovery. That recovery will continue if President Trump continues in office. That recovery will come to a screeching halt if Joe Biden becomes President.

 

Facts vs. Lies

There were some very misleading lies told in the Presidential Debate last night. I would like to highlight a few of them. Unfortunately, many of those lies were told by the moderator Chris Wallace. It is also true that those lies painted a negative picture of President Trump. I do not believe that Chris Wallace was a neutral moderator. These lies are not necessarily in any particular order. This is the link to the transcript.

Lie number one:

Chris Wallace: (19:34)
You talk about the economy booming. It turns out that in Obama’s final three years as president more jobs were created, a million and a half more jobs, than in the first three years of your presidency.

The facts:

When President Obama took office in January 2009, the workforce participation rate was 65.7. When President Obama left office in January 2017, the labor participation rate was 62.8. That was the rate when President Trump took office. The labor participation rate before the coronavirus was 63.4 (February 2020). With the lockdown, the rate dropped to 60.2. At the end of August it was 61.7.

Lie number two:

Chris Wallace: (25:43)
No, less than you have. Let’s please continue on. The issue of rice(sic). Vice-President Biden, you say that President Trump’s response to the violence in Charlottesville three years ago, when he talked about very fine people on both sides, was what directly led you to launch this run for president.

This is a Democrat talking point. The quote is taking totally out of context. This is the exact quote:

You know what? It’s fine, you’re changing history, you’re changing culture, and you had people – and I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists, because they should be condemned totally – but you had many people in that group other than neo-Nazis and white nationalists, okay? And the press has treated them absolutely unfairly. Now, in the other group also, you had some fine people, but you also had troublemakers and you see them come with the black outfits and with the helmets and with the baseball bats – you had a lot of bad people in the other group too.

Lie number three:

Chris Wallace: (32:21)
This month, your administration directed federal agencies to end racial sensitivity training that addresses white privilege or critical race theory. Why did you decide to do that, to end racial sensitivity training? And do you believe that there is systemic racism in this country, sir?

Breitbart notes:

Trump banned a specific kind of racial insensitivity training, which involves “Critical Race Theory.”

…Critical Race Theory is the idea that the major institutions of the United States are tainted by slavery and racism because they were founded when slavery was still legal in parts of the country. According to the late Derrick Bell, who founded Critical Race Theory, the very institution of private property is tainted by racism because of slavery. Even the Civil Rights movement was regrettable to some extent, Bell believed, because it created an illusion of racial equality. Only a massive redistribution of wealth, driven by the creation of socioeconomic rights, can cure American society of its systemic racism, the theory holds.

On a practical level, Critical Race Theory teaches that social interactions are guided by “white supremacy,” and that society is corrupted by “systemic racism,” according to which black Americans must always be victims — even if unconsciously so. Critical Race Theory is the ideology animating the Black Lives Matter movement that has brought unrest to America’s cities.

These are just some of the issues. One of the other things that really bothered me was the comparison between the Trump children and Joe Biden’s son Hunter. There has never been any evidence that the Trump children are guilty of anything. There is significant evidence that Hunter Biden has continually been involved in questionable business dealings.

 

Good News

Just the News posted an article with the following headline today, “U.S. weekly jobless claims remain below 1 million, 860,000 new claims made last week. The figure was slightly lower than economists predicted.” Why are the predictions always negative during a Republican administration?

The article reports:

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits totaled 860,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The number was slightly lower number than the predicted 875,000. Several weeks ago, the weekly jobless figure fell below 1 million for the first time since late March and has remained below that threshold.

This week’s figure is down slightly from the previous week’s 893,000 number.

Despite the high number of coronavirus-related layoffs, U.S. employers in August replaces nearly 11 million of the initial 22 million jobs lost during the onset of the pandemic. Hiring rates over the summer have continued to climb and, in conjunction with several other indicators of an active economy, point toward a steady shift away from the pandemic-induced economic shutdown.

President Trump is a businessman. He understands how business works. He will rebuild the American economy. Joe Biden will not. It is that simple. Look at the anemic economic growth between 2008 and 2016, and then compare that to the economic growth before the pandemic and as we are coming out of the pandemic.

Just to provide some perspective, in January 2009, the Workforce Participation Rate was 65.7. In October 2016, it was 62.8. In January 2019, it was still at 62.8. In February 2020, the Workforce Participation rate was 63.4. After dropping to 60.2 in April, it was at 61.7 in August. The Workforce Participation Rate represents the number of Americans employed or looking for work. If you want to keep this number high, vote for President Trump. If you want unemployment to rise and the number of Americans working to shrink, vote for Joe Biden. Joe Biden’s tax plan will very quickly stifle the economic growth that we have seen under President Trump.

Good Economic News

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the August Workforce Participation Rate was 61.7 (in July it was 61.4). This is good news. In February it was 63.4, so we are moving in the right direction after the coronavirus shutdown. Yesterday The Epoch Times posted an article about August  manufacturing levels.

The Epoch Times reports:

U.S. manufacturing levels exceeded economists’ expectations in August, accelerating close to a two-year high as new orders increased beyond that of July, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released on Sept. 1.

The ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which gauges national factory activity, rose to 56.0 last month, marking the fourth straight month of economic growth for the manufacturing sector.

A PMI reading above 50 points indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector, which makes up 11 percent of the U.S. economy. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a more modest increase.

The index, which climbed from a reading of 54.2 in July, is now at its highest since November 2018.

I know this is just an incredible coincidence, but it seems that when a Republican is in the White House, good economic news always exceeds economists’ expectations.

The article also reports:

According to ISM Chair Timothy Fiore, the August data also “indicates expansion in the overall economy for the fourth month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth.” A PMI reading above 42.8 generally indicates economic expansion.

Fiore also said that the ISM’s New Orders Index had reached 67.6 percent—a 6.1 percentage point increase from July. The production index increased, as did the order backlog and supplier deliveries indexes. According to the ISM, inventory levels fell in August while prices, new export orders, and imports all increased.

The employment index for August continued to show factory workers losing their jobs, although at a slower rate than in July. The federal government’s employment report is due out on Sept. 4, and the Reuters survey of economists is expected to show that roughly 1.4 million jobs were created in August, after 1.76 million were added in July.

The economy is coming back, and statistically the virus is declining. That is a great combination.

Good News

It always amazes me that good economic news is always ‘unexpected’ when a Republican is in the White House. Well, last month’s economic news also fits that pattern. Breitbart reported yesterday that factory activity in the U.S. surged higher than expected in June. That always makes me wonder who expected what.

The article reports:

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of manufacturing activity jumped 9.5 percentage points to 52.6 in June. The gauge of new orders rose 24.6 points to 56.4, the largest ever monthly increase. The production component of the index also rose by more than 24 points to 57.3.

…Economists had expected a reading of 49, with the highest estimate in those surveyed by Econoday 51.5. June’s score was the best since April of 2019.

“The manufacturing sector is reversing the heavy contraction of April, with the PMI increasing month-over-month at a rate not seen since August 1980, with several other indexes also posting gains not seen in modern times,” ISM’s Timothy Fiore said in a statement.

The article further reports:

“US manufacturers have reported a marked turnaround in business conditions through the second quarter, with collapsing production and demand in April at the height of the COVID-19 lockdown turning rapidly to stabilisation by June. The PMI posted a record 10-point rise in June amid unprecedented gains in the survey’s output, employment and order book gauges,” Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said.

Williamson said:

“The record rise in the New Orders Index, coupled with low inventory holdings, bodes well for a further improvement in production momentum in July. A record upturn in business sentiment about the year ahead likewise hints that business spending and employment will start to revive. However, while the PMI currently points to a strong v-shaped recovery, concerns have risen that momentum could be lost if rising numbers of virus infections lead to renewed restrictions and cause demand to weaken again.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that the workforce participation rate for June was 61.5, up from 60.8 in May. In February the workforce participation rate was 63.4, so we have a ways to go to get back to where we were before the coronavirus shutdown.

Experts Amazed–Again

CNBC is reporting the following today:

Employment stunningly rose by 2.5 million in May and the jobless rate declined to 13.3%, according to data Friday from the Labor Department that was far better than economists had been expecting and indicated that an economic turnaround could be close at hand.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to drop by 8.33 million and the unemployment rate to rise to 19.5% from April’s 14.7%. If Wall Street expectations had been accurate, it would have been the worst figure since the Great Depression.

As it turned out, May’s numbers showed the U.S. may well be on the road to recovery after its fastest plunge in history.

Experts are shocked. The mainstream media is disappointed. The Democrats are disheartened.

The workforce participation rate for May was 60.8. In April, it was 60.2. In March, it was 62.7, and in February it was 63.4. You can see the impact of the shutdown in that rate, and you can also see the hope for the future in that rate.

The current riots will not help anyone. However, oddly enough, where people choose to rebuild when the riots end, there will be jobs. Hopefully those jobs will go to the people in the neighborhood (who generally are not responsible for the rioting and looting). We will recover from the shutdown and the riots. Hopefully it will happen more quickly than the experts seem willing to believe.

The Economy Is Strong

No one really knows what impact the coronavirus will have on our economy, but as for now, the February jobs report showed a strong, vibrant, growing economy.

Yahoo News posted details of the report today.

The article reports:

The Labor Department released its February jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday. Here were the main results from the report, compared to consensus expectations compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Change in non-farm payrolls: +273,000 vs. +175,000 expected and 273,000 in January
  • Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.6% in January
  • Avg. hourly earnings, month on month: +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.2% in January
  • Avg. hourly earnings, year on year: 3.0% vs. +3.0% expected and 3.1% in January

January’s job gains were upwardly revised to 273,000, from the 225,000 previously reported, and December’s non-farm payroll additions were upwardly revised by 37,000 to 184,000. This brought average job gains over the past three months up to 243,000, or above the average from 2019, when job growth averaged 178,000 per month.

The services sector again led the advance in job gains in February. Within this sector, health-care and social assistance added 56,500 payrolls, accelerating gains from January. Professional and business services also posted strong job gains, adding a net 41,000 positions.

Within the services sector, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing and temporary health services shed jobs in February. Retail posted the largest declines, losing a net 7,000 positions and extending a drop of 5,800 from January.

For the goods-producing sector, manufacturing added jobs for the first time in three months, posting a net 15,000 payroll gains. Construction and mining each also added jobs, underscoring a firming of the goods-producing sector in February after months of weakness relative to services. Employment in construction rose by 42,000 positions for the month after a gain of 49,000 in January, representing the best two-month advance for the industry since March 2018, as unseasonably warm weather and a strengthening housing market helped supported hiring.

The Workforce Participation Rate remained steady at 63.4 percent.

It’s always interesting to me that when the jobs report comes out during a Republican administration, the numbers always seem to be higher than the experts predicted. There will be some impact in March from the coronavirus because of the disruption in the global supply chain the virus has caused, but I believe the economy is strong enough to recover from any glitches that may occur (despite the undisguised wishes of the Democrat party for a serious economic downturn).

Good News For Working Americans

Breitbart posted an article today about the latest economic numbers.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy created 136,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent.

Economists had expected the economy to between 120,000 and 179,000 with the consensus number at 145,000, according to Econoday. Unemployment was expected to remain unchanged at last month’s 3.7 percent.

The jobs data for the two previous months were also revised upward, indicating that the labor market was stronger over the summer than previously indicated. Employment for July was revised up by 7,000 from 159,000 to 166,000, and August was revised up by 38,000 from 130,000 to 168,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 45,000 more than previously reported.

The stronger numbers for July and August may also explain the slightly-below expectations figure for September since some of the growth in employment forecast for last month had already occurred.

The last time the rate was this low was in December 1969, when it also was 3.5 percent.

Economic data has been intensely scrutinized this week for signs of economic sluggishness after the Institute for Supply Management’s survey of manufacturing companies suggested the manufacturing sector had unexpectedly contracted for a second consecutive month. Survey data of non-manufacturing companies, however, showed that the services sector continued to expand in September. Similarly, data on private payrolls and unemployment claims suggested that the U.S. economy had cooled but was not near a recession.

The September workforce participation rate remains unchanged at 63.2 percent. This is a chart showing changes in the rate since 2009:

Why I Believe The Media’s Talk Of Recession Is Garbage

Breitbart posted an article today about September’s jobs numbers. There is a lot of good news in the report.

The article reports:

Economists had expected the economy to between 150,000 and 180,000 with the median consensus at 163,000, according to Econoday. Unemployment was expected to remain unchanged. Last month’s jobs figure was originally reported at 164,000, now revised down to 159,000, and unemployment was 3.7 percent.

Although the headline number was weaker than expected, wage growth was strong in August. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $28.11, or 0.4 percent, following 9-cent gains in both June and July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents to $23.59.

Unemployment among African Americans fell to 5.5 percent, the lowest level on record.

The labor force participation rate edged up to 63.2 percent in August, indicating that the strong labor market has continued to draw Americans into the workforce.

The largest job gains came from professional and business services, which added 37,000.  Census hiring boosted the federal government’s hiring to 28,000 workers. Health care added 24,000 to the total while financial services increased by 15,000.

The article concludes:

Consumer spending and the labor market have been strong. Data released Thursday showed worker compensation rising strongly and well-above inflation. Rising labor costs can promote capital investment by businesses seeking to make workers more productive.
With unemployment near 50-year lows, job growth has slowed and many businesses say they are having trouble hiring. Employment growth has averaged 158,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018.

This is the chart showing the Workforce Participation Rate since 2009 (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website):

We are not yet up to 2009 levels, but we are moving in the right direction. The economic indicators are positive. Hopefully the American public will be able to see past the media’s efforts to create a recession.

This Could Make The Next Two Years Very Interesting

Don Surber posted an article today that included some rather surprising information.

The article reports:

Brad Parscale, Donald John Trump’s 2020 campaign manager, told Jesse Watters last night that 34% of the people who attended the president’s rally in Grand Rapids were registered Democrats.

Parscale knows that because people needed to give the campaign their cellphone numbers to get tickets. The campaign then used the information to check their voting record.

…Parscale called the Green New Deal a big juicy steak for the campaign.

Axios limited its report on the interview to Parscale saying, “[Trump] has been very easy to work with this week. He’s been very smiley.

“I was in the White House this week; he served me hors d’oeuvres. That was a first. … [A] little pigs in a blanket, some meatballs. …He gave me a Diet Coke; he was very happy. It was my first [time] in nine years serving, of hors d’oeuvres from the president. Which is safe to say, very good mood.”

Axios was the only outlet (besides Fox News) that I could find with a report on the interview.

Gee, I wonder how the experts missed that last election?

It’s difficult to ignore the economic success of the Trump administration. I suspect those in the deep state will attempt to undermine that success during the next year or so, but there are some fundamental changes in regulations that will make that difficult. The unemployment rate and the workforce participation rate speak for themselves. Salaries at the lower end of the wage scale are going up. People are keeping more of what they earn. The mainstream media is not telling us all of the good news, but people are experiencing better economic times and discounting the media. This President has dealt with an unprecedented assault on our southern border and is beginning to deal with the problem in spite of Congress–not with the help of Congress. The President has also dealt with an unprecedented attack on him personally and on his family. It is time to stop harassing the President and let him lead. The attendance at his rallies are an indication that the public is not listening to the mainstream media–they are doing their own research and drawing their own conclusions.

Even The Good News Is Clouded With Doom When The Media Reports It

Market Watch posted an article yesterday about the January trade deficit in America. The article notes that the deficit shrank to $51.1 billion in January from almost $60 billion in December. That is really good news. However, the media doesn’t seem to want good economic news.

The article notes:

Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a $57.7 billion deficit.

Notice that they were more than a little off.

The article continues:

The lower U.S. trade deficit, if it persists, could provide a small boost in the first quarter to gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the economy. But the drop in imports could also be taken as sign of softening demand in the U.S. that adds to worries about a slower growth.

Whatever the case, the U.S. is coming off the highest annual deficit in a decade and it’s unlikely the gap will shrink much if at all in 2019.

The President is renegotiating trade deals. This is not an ‘instant’ process. His negotiating skills and business acumen are responsible for the growing economy–the unemployment rate is down and the workforce participation rate is up. Can someone in the media please give President Trump a little credit and show a little optimism.

Economic Policies Impact All Of Us

The Trump economy has been good for everyone. Taxes are lower, wages are moving up, unemployment is low, and the workforce participation rate is moving up. Wages on the lower economic scale have seen a marked increase in the past year. However, one thing that impacts government spending as well as being an indication of economic conditions  is food stamps. Yesterday Breitbart reported that the most recent USDA data revealed that 37,911,631 people received food stamps through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in December 2018, marking the lowest level of overall participation in the nation’s food stamp program in nearly ten years. That is good news for the people who no longer need food stamps, and it is good news for taxpayers who fund food stamps.

The article reports:

The last time overall participation in food stamps reached this level was in October 2009, when 37,672,818 people were on the government dole, according to USDA data.

…After 2013, SNAP enrollment plummeted once state legislatures passed laws requiring food stamp recipients to work, attend school, volunteer, or participate in job training for a set number of hours per week to receive benefits.

Food stamp enrollment dropped even further under President Trump’s administration partly because of the administration’s efforts to reform welfare programs like SNAP at federal and state levels of government and an improving economy spurred by Trump’s tax reform package.

The article concludes:

According to the latest USDA data, 4.2 million Americans have dropped off of the food stamp rolls during Trump’s presidency.

President Trump also signaled that he is looking to limit dependency on welfare programs like food stamps even further.

The president recently told Breitbart News in an Oval Office interview that he does not want any immigrants coming into the U.S. to be dependent on welfare programs.

“I don’t want to have anyone coming in that’s on welfare,” Trump told Breitbart News last Monday.

The asylum program was not meant to be a free lunch. There is a difference between people coming here to work and people coming here for free stuff.

The Workforce Participation Rate

Yesterday CNS News posted an article about the January Workforce Participation Rate. This is the number of people in America either working or looking for jobs. When President Obama took office in January 2009, the Workforce Participation Rate was 65.7. That number dropped to a low of 62.4 in September 2015 and began slowly climbing, reaching a high of 62.9 in September 2016. The number hovered around there for a while until finally reaching 63.2 in January 2019.

Here is the chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The article at CNS News reports:

The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added 304,000 jobs last month, higher than analysts were expecting.

The number of employed Americans, 156,694,000, was slightly below last month’s record (156,945,000), and the unemployment rate increased a tenth of a point to 4.0 percent.

But the labor force participation rate increased a tenth of a point to 63.2 percent — the highest it’s been on President Trump’s watch.

The CNS News article included an excerpt from the Congressional Budget Report released this week:

According to CBO:

Employment: Nonfarm payroll employment is projected to grow by an average of 148,000 jobs per month in 2019, a decline from 213,000 jobs/month in 2018 but “still a healthy pace of job growth at this stage of the business cycle.”

Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate, now at its lowest point since the 1960s, is projected to fall from 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 3.5 percent by the end of 2019. The anticipated decline in the unemployment rate reflects a continued increase in the demand for labor, which will reduce the number of unemployed workers in the labor force this year.

CBO said the demand for labor and the resulting upward pressure on compensation also encourages people to remain in the labor force or rejoin it, making the labor force larger and thus moderating the decline in the unemployment rate.

Labor force participation: The labor force participation rate, which has hovered around 62.8 percent since 2014, is expected to remain close to that rate during the next two years.

CBO explained that the stability of the labor force participation rate in recent years reflects the balancing of two opposing forces: sustained economic growth, which continues to encourage additional workers to enter the labor force and currently employed workers to stay on the job; and long-run shifts in demographics (particularly the aging of the population).

Labor compensation. After several years of prolonged weakness, wage growth accelerated notably in 2018, CBO noted. Over the next few years, labor compensation is expected to rise further as employment remains at elevated levels and firms must compete for a relatively small pool of unemployed or underemployed workers.

In CBO’s projections, annual growth of the employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry averages 3.5 percent between 2019 and 2023, slightly more rapid than its 3.3 percent pace in 2018 and considerably more rapid than the 2.0 percent average from 2009 to 2017.

President Trump’s economic policies are working. If he is allowed to continue those policies with a Democrat House of Representatives, he will be re-elected in 2020, so prepare to see the House of Representatives attempt to roll back many of those policies.

How Does This Statement Make Sense?

Yesterday I posted an article that included the following:

…Newly-elected Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) also endorsed impeaching Trump on her first day in office, according to The Nation, which described Tlaib as calling for “immediate steps” to remove the president from the White House.

“Each passing day brings more pain for the people most directly hurt by this president, and these are days we simply cannot get back. The time for impeachment proceedings is now,” Rep. Tlaib declared.

I really am confused about how this president is hurting people. I am further confused by looking at Representative Tlaib’s statement in view of some economic news that was reported today.

For instance, CNN is reporting today:

US employers added 312,000 jobs in December, well above what economists expected and underlining that the American economy remains strong despite recent market turbulence.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as more people were looking for work. It had been at a 50-year low of 3.7% for two of the last three months.

Employers added 2.6 million jobs in 2018, compared to 2.2 million in 2017. Revisions to the October and November estimates added an additional 58,000 jobs to the 2018 total.

…Paychecks grew as employers raised wages to attract new workers. Average hourly pay was up 3.2% compared to a year earlier. The average number of hours people worked also edged up.

…The unemployment rate rose because more than 400,000 people joined the labor force looking for jobs. The percentage of the working-age people in the work force matched a five-year high.

“Yes, the nation’s unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, but for the best of reasons,” said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com senior economic analyst. “That’s a deal we’ll take if more people are participating in the workforce.”

The chart that I watch to see how things are going is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is the chart of the Workforce Participation Rate. It indicates how many Americans are actually part of the workforce. This is the chart:

Note that we have reached the 63.1 percent participation rate only three times since 2014. When President Obama took office, the rate was 66.2. By the time President Obama left office, the rate was 62.7. That was after the federal deficit doubled due to the stimulus package that was supposed to create jobs.

The House of Representatives has a choice–they can either join in the efforts of President Trump to improve the American economy and the lives of American workers, or they can do everything they can to slow it down. Unfortunately, the new rules they are putting in place will bring us laws and policies that will slow the economy down. That is unfortunate–Americans deserve better, even though they elected these people.