About That Affordability Thing…

Affordability is the new buzz word of the day. The attempt is being made to use it as a hammer to bludgeon President Trump. Interesting, since he hasn’t even been in office for a year yet.

On Tuesday, John Hinderaker at Power Line Blog reported:

Normally I wouldn’t do anything so facile as to blame inflation on a particular politician, but given that the Democrats are pinning their hopes on hanging the “affordability crisis” around President Trump’s neck, a little historical perspective is in order. Thus, from the Unleash Prosperity Hotline:

We went back to January 2020 when the pandemic started. We found that 13.5% of cumulative inflation (prices are 24% higher today) has happened under Trump, while 86.5 percent of cumulative inflation happened under Biden.

So the “affordability crisis” is the hangover effect of Bidenomics when the White House dumped some $4 trillion of helicopter money out the windows.

The article includes the following chart:

Obviously prices are still rising, but there are a few good things in the future economically–the price of gasoline at the pump is trending down–that impacts everyone and everything. The price of energy should come down in the near future as America increases its energy independence, although some states may not experience the downward turn due to excessive regulation. Most food prices are also stabilizing or moving downward.

Affordability is improving, but it is going to take a while. Two things that will help with the cost of housing are to lower the demand by removing the illegals and to lower the interest rates. Overall, I am optimistic about the future, but there will be a price paid at some point for the excesses of the Biden administration.

The Rest Of The Story On Inflation

On Friday, the Associated Press posted an article about the current state of inflation.

The article reports:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Wholesale prices in the United States rose by a larger-than-expected 2.6% last month from a year earlier, a sign that some inflation pressures remain high.

The increase, the sharpest year-over-year increase since March 2023, comes at a time when other price indicators are showing that inflation has continued to ease.

The Labor Department said Friday that its producer price index — which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers — rose 0.2% from May to June after being unchanged the month before. Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to bounce around from month to month, so-called core wholesale prices increased 0.4% from May and 3% from June 2023.

The increase in wholesale inflation last month was driven by a sizable 0.6% rise in services prices, led by higher profit margins for machinery and auto wholesalers.

By contrast, the overall prices of goods fell 0.5%. Gasoline prices tumbled 5.8% at the wholesale level. Food prices also dropped.

The producer price index can provide an early sign of where consumer inflation is headed. Economists also watch it because some of its components, notably healthcare and financial services, flow into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index.

Most of the media reported that inflation was slowing based on the producer price index. That number was used to fuel speculation of a federal reserve rate decrease by the end of the year. That likely caused the bump in the stock market yesterday. It’s nice to celebrate a drop in food as fuel prices, but where are they in comparison to where they were four years ago? The Biden administration is hoping you won’t remember.

What A Difference An Election Made

On Monday, Breitbart posted the following headline:

Argentina Logs First Week with No Inflation in Food Prices in 30 Years

This is one of many positive results of the election of President Javier Milei, who began his term as President in December 2023.

The article reports:

A study published on Sunday by Econométrica, a private Argentine consulting firm, first reported the no-inflation week. In its study, Econométrica analyzed 8,000 prices in local online supermarkets and found no change when compared to the preceding week — something that has not happened in Argentina in three decades. In addition to the lack of variation in prices in one week, the study found that the prices of food and drinks only experienced an increase of 0.1 percent in the past 15 days.

…Upon taking office in December, Milei enacted a series of “shock therapy” economic policies to restore Argentina’s economy after nearly two decades of socialist rule left it in a precarious state and on the verge of a hyperinflation spiral.

Since then, monthly inflation rates in Argentina have experienced a dramatic and continued downward trend, going from 25.5 percent in December to 4.2 percent in May, the lowest rate experienced in the country in over two years. In April, Argentina recorded a surplus of its gross domestic product (GDP) during the first quarter of the year — something that the South American nation had not seen since 2008.

Milei is in the Czech Republic on the final stop of a four-day tour of Europe that began on Friday with a visit to Spain, followed by a two-day stop in Germany over the weekend that included an encounter with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Milei is slated to meet with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala on Monday morning.

The article concludes:

Milei also confirmed that his administration would not promote a devaluation of the Argentine peso, echoing statements by Economy Minister Luis Caputo last week where he ruled out such plans. Caputo instead said he would continue implementing the current plan, which focuses on maintaining a good relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and upholding a currency exchange system that allows companies to sell 20 percent of their income in U.S. dollars in the financial market and settle the remaining 80 percent at the official exchange rate.

“There are professionals who, in order to justify and wash their mistakes, make unfortunate arguments, which speak more about what they want to happen than what really has to happen,” Milei said. “There are sectors that find it convenient to have low dollar salaries and more poor and indigent people, and we believe that the situation works in a different way.”

This could happen in America with the proper election results.

The March Inflation Numbers

On Wednesday, MSNBC posted the March Inflation Numbers. As any consumer can tell you, inflation is still and issue.

The article reports:

  • The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, rose 3.5% in March, higher than expectations and marking an acceleration for inflation.
  • Shelter and energy costs drove the increase. Energy rose 1.1% after increasing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs were higher by 0.4% on the month and up 5.7% from a year ago.
  • Following the report, traders pushed the first expected rate cut out to September, according to CME Group calculations.

The article notes:

Stocks slumped after the report while Treasury yields spiked higher.

Shelter and energy costs drove the increase on the all-items index.

Energy rose 1.1% after climbing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, were higher by 0.4% on the month and up 5.7% from a year ago. Expectations for shelter-related costs to decelerate through the year have been central to the Fed’s thesis that inflation will cool enough to allow for interest rate cuts.

Food prices increased just 0.1% on the month and were up 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. There were some big gains within the food category, however.

The measure for meat, fish, poultry and eggs climbed 0.9%, pushed by a 4.6% jump in egg prices. Butter fell 5% and cereal and bakery products declined by 0.9%. Food away from home increased 0.3%.

Elsewhere, used vehicle prices fell 1.1% and medical care services prices rose 0.6%.

The past three years or so have not been a good time for most Americans. Inflation has increased the cost of simply maintaining an average lifestyle. It will be interesting to see if inflation can be brought under control by November and if people will vote their pocketbooks.

The Real Cost Of Living

Washington always finds a way to lie with statistics when it comes to the economy. Limiting the items included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one way to convince Americans that inflation isn’t as bad as it seems and also a way to limit the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) of various federal disbursements. However, those fake numbers don’t help Americans deal with the rising cost of food and gasoline.

On Sunday, PJ Media posted an article about the rising cost of living in America.

The article reports:

Perhaps the most misleading government statistic of all is the Consumer Price Index. The CPI is an incredibly important statistic because so many government programs that benefit American citizens are tied to that number.

It’s usually cited as the inflation rate, but it’s not really. The CPI is the rate of increase in a subjective “market basket” of goods and services. The things that concern you and me the most as far as price increases have very little to do with the CPI. The CPI doesn’t track food or gas prices at the pump, so the CPI that we see every month doesn’t tell us anything useful.

Right now, the CPI stands at 3.1%. That’s down from a high of 9.1% in June 2022. But even that doesn’t tell us the whole inflation story because along with skyrocketing food and gas prices, real wages failed to keep pace with the price increases.

According to The New York Sun:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released jobs numbers this morning that show non-farm wages increased 4.1 percent in the past year, which is above the inflation rate of 3.1 percent. The problem is that inflation-adjusted real hourly wages — those of the average blue-collar or middle-class person — are down 4.7 percent today from when Mr. Biden took office. That’s a weekly earnings decline in real wages to $381 in November 2023 from $399 in January 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“The reason Biden polls so badly is that there’s a decline in wages and an increase in prices,” a former economic adviser to President Trump, Larry Kudlow, tells the Sun. He calls this the “affordability crisis.”

Americans feel it when they walk into the grocery store. Food prices increased nearly 6 percent in 2023, according to the Department of Agriculture. In 2022, at-home food prices — what one buys in a grocery store — increased more than 11 percent. No matter one’s income, it’s hard not to notice the rising cost of food at the grocery store and at restaurants — even fast food.

Are voters going to believe what they are told or what they see?

Inconvenient Facts

President Biden will make his State of the Union speech tonight. He will tell us that his economic plan is working–he is not responsible for inflation, high gas prices, or the lack of security at the southern border. If you believe what he says, I have a bridge I would like to sell you in Brooklyn.

On Tuesday, The Daily Wire posted some actual numbers related to the Biden economy.

The article reports:

Let’s start with inflation, which a few months ago hit a 40-year high. In December 2020, the last full month in office for President Donald Trump, the rate of inflation was 1.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The average for the entire year of 2020 was 1.2%, data show.

But after Biden killed the Keystone XL pipeline, froze student debt collection, rejoined the Paris climate accords, made a pathway for illegals to gain citizenship, and halted construction on the border wall — all actions he took on Day 1 — inflation started to climb.

In his first six months in office, inflation went from 1.4% to 5.4%. It was worse in 2022, rising to 9.1% by June. But Biden is a highly skilled liar: Inflation has fallen for six straight months — all the way down to 6.5%. The average for 2022 was 8%, soaring from 1.2% in 2020.

Now, some people argue that the president shouldn’t take credit for a good economy and certainly doesn’t deserve the blame for a bad one. But in Biden’s case, he definitely deserves the blame.

“Economists say Biden’s pandemic relief policies including the American Rescue Plan exacerbated matters, by giving Americans too much money to spend when goods and services supplies were too low, which drove prices higher,” PolitiFact wrote on Monday.

The article mentions gasoline prices:

Then there are gas prices. When Biden took office, a gallon of regular averaged $2.38. Today it’s $3.46, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

That’s nearly 50% higher (46% to be exact) than it was when Biden took office. And remember, by February 2022, the eve of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the price had already risen above $3.50 — which negates Biden’s endless claims of “Putin’s price hike” at the pumps.

The article mentions food prices:

Let’s just talk about the State of the Union since the last time Biden delivered the State of the Union address. “In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports. “Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent.”

There’s more. Egg prices increased 11.1% in December, pushing the price since December 2021 59.9% higher. And we haven’t hit the ceiling yet, not even close. “Egg prices are predicted to increase 27.3 percent in 2023,” the USDA reported.

Please follow the link to read the entire article. The article goes into wages and also reports on America’s mood. The speech will make a lot of claims, but those of us who live under the Biden economy probably won’t believe those claims.

It’s All A Matter Of Perspective

Inflation impacts every American. We see it mainly at the grocery store and the gas pump, but it also shows up in movie prices, concert prices, the cost of dining out, etc. In terms of the impact on food prices, Scott Johnson at Power Line Blog reports on one of the most amazing comments by the White House on the price of food.

The article reports:

White House Economic Council Director joined White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre for the July 26 press briefing last week. The White House has posted the transcript here. Talking up the strength of our economy by comparison with others, Deese (White House economic adviser Brian Deese) actually said this:

Well, look, I think that our — our economy is more resilient to the — to the types of challenges that we’ve faced. For example, you know, with respect to food, we’re a net exporter of agricultural commodities. And, obviously, the high prices are hitting Americans very hard, but they’re — that — in a way that is different from some places that are facing famine, for example.

So what I hear in that statement is that the Biden administration really doesn’t care that the high price of food is seriously impacting Americans, we should be glad we are not facing famine.

We can’t get the Biden administration’s hands off of any public policy power they have soon enough.

Life In America Is Getting More Expensive

On Friday, The Daily Caller posted an article about the impact of inflation on household budgets.

The article reports:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached its highest rate in over 40 years in May, adding more strain on U.S. household budgets.

American families watched as consumer prices for necessities like groceries, oil and gas, and transportation rose 8.6% in the last year, according to the Friday U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The CPI, which measures the change in price for products paid for by U.S. consumers, increased a startling 1% in May after only rising 0.3% in April, the BLS report shows.

The skyrocketing rates affect all areas of American life, but shelter, gasoline, and food saw the highest price increases.

The article concludes:

Records show food prices rose 1.2% in May, an increase from the .9% rise in April. The food at home index climbed for the fifth consecutive month, increasing 1.4% in May. The price for American families to eat at home has risen 11.9% over the past 12 months, making it the largest 12-month increase since April 1979, reported BLS.

“All six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the [last 12-months], with five of the six rising more than 10 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased the most, rising 14.2 percent, with the index for eggs increasing 32.2 percent,” the BLS report stated.

Fruits and vegetables rose 8.2%, with other food at home rising 12.6%.

Transportation costs, like new and used cars, and airline fares, also rose. The price of new vehicles rose 1% in May and 12.6% over the past 12-month. The used car index increased 1.8% in May and 16.1% over the past year. Airline fares rose 12.6% in May alone, after increasing 18.6% in April, statistics show.

There are a lot of reasons for this increase in inflation. There is also a belief in some circles that it is by design–inflation makes the national debt easier to pay off. Unfortunately, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the interest on the debt increases dramatically. Basically, excessive government spending is a major source of inflation. The dramatic increase in fuel prices has a trickle-down impact on inflation and is also contributing to the problem. Both of these things are correctable if we had an administration that wanted to correct them.