Economic Growth Is Not Responding In A Positive Way To President Biden’s Economic Plans

Breitbart is reporting today that the number of jobs added to the American economy in April was far below expectations.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added just 266,000  jobs in April and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1 percent, the Labor Department said in its monthly labor assessment Friday, smashing expectations.

This was far below expectations. Analysts surveyed by Econoday had predicted Friday’s report would show between 755,000 and 1.25 million workers added to payrolls in April. The median forecast was for 938,000 and an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent.

The news is not all bad–it’s just not what the economists wanted. They were hoping that the Biden administration would continue the good news of the Trump administration. Based on the policies espoused by the Biden administration, that is a false hope. The unemployment rate in March was 6 percent, so unemployment only went up slightly (not down as predicted). There is, however, another figure that needs to be looked at–the workforce participation rate. The workforce participation rate is the section of working population in the age group of 16-64 in the economy currently employed or seeking employment. That number was 61.5 in March and 61.7 in April. Changes in that number occur gradually, and an upward trend is a good thing.

The article concludes:

In April, 18.3 percent of workers performed their jobs remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 21.0 percent in the prior month.

The number of people saying they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic declined to 9.2 million, from 11.4 million in the previous month. Among those who reported in April that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 9.3 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed
from the previous month.

Among those not in the labor force in April, 2.8 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 3.7 million the month before.

We are actually moving slowly in a good direction. The question is whether or not that positive economic momentum will continue under President Biden’s economic policies.

That’s A Big Change In The Numbers

Yesterday The Washington Times posted an article about the Biden administration’s revised estimate of how many jobs the infrastructure bill would create. The numbers have changed dramatically.

The article reports:

The White House clarified Tuesday that one study projects that President Biden’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure package will create roughly 2.7 million jobs — not the 19 million jobs administration officials had touted over the weekend.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki cited a study from Moody’s that projects the U.S. economy will add 19 million jobs over the next decade if Congress passes Mr. Biden’s plan and about 16.3 million jobs if Congress doesn’t pass it.

“So that is what the impact would be of the American Jobs Plan — 2.7 million, to be totally clear,” Ms. Psaki said. “It is important to be clear and to be specific about jobs numbers — to provide clarity to the American people.”

Frankly, considering the cost of the proposed infrastructure bill, I’d prefer the 16.3 million jobs.

The article concludes:

Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had both cited the study over the weekend to say the plan would create 19 million jobs.

The White House later indicated that Mr. Deese misspoke.

Mr. Buttigieg clarified on CNN Monday that the Moody’s study projects an additional 2.7 million jobs in its forecast if the plan is passed.  

I wonder how many Americans missed the ‘clarification’ and are still believing the original number given.

Good News For The American Economy

Breitbart posted an article today about the latest jobs numbers.

The article reports:

The U.S. private sector added 202,000 positions in December, according to an estimate from ADP and Moody’s Analytics.

This far outpaced the 150,000 new hires forecast by economists. In addition, ADP revised its November estimate dramatically higher, from 67,000 to 160,000.

Somehow when there is a Republican President, the actual numbers are generally  higher than the predictions.

The article concludes:

The report suggests that the labor market ended 2019 in a position of rising strength. The Labor Department will release its report on the jobs situation on Friday. Economists expect that to show a gain of 160,000 private and public sector jobs.

Medium sized businesses, those with between 50 and 499 employees, led the way in job growth, adding 88,000 jobs. Larger businesses added 69,000 and smaller firms added 45,000, ADP/Moody’s said.

Despite the very high number of new positions in December, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said that job gains “continue to moderate.”

“Manufacturers, energy producers and small companies have been shedding jobs. Unemployment is low, but will begin to rise if job growth slows much further,” Zandi said

“As 2019 came to a close, we saw expanded payrolls in December,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The service providers posted the largest gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services. Job creation was strong across companies of all sizes, led predominantly by midsized companies.”.

The economy continues to do well under the command of an experienced businessman. Let’s keep it that way!

A Positive Economic Picture

CNS News is reporting today that the economy is doing better than predicted.

The article reports:

A record 157,005,000 people were employed in June, the most since February and the 19th record of Trump’s presidency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.

And the economy added a strong 224,000 jobs in June, well above the estimate of 160,000.

The unemployment rate, the lowest in 50 years, ticked up a tenth of a point to 3.7 percent.

In June, the nation’s civilian noninstitutionalized population, consisting of all people age 16 or older who were not in the military or an institution, reached 259,037,000. Of those, 162,981,000 participated in the labor force by either holding a job or actively seeking one.

The 162,981,000 who participated in the labor force equaled 62.9 percent of the 259,037,000 civilian noninstitutionalized population. That’s up a tenth of a point from May’s 62.8 percent participation rate. The payroll taxes paid by people who participate in the labor force help support those who do not participate, so the higher this number, the better.

The participation rate reached a record high of 67.3 percent in early 2000; the highest it’s been under Trump is 63.2 percent.

In December 2016, the labor force participation rate was 62.7. It has moved between 62.7 and 63.1 since President Trump took office.

I love the fact that during a Republican administration, the estimates of jobs created is always low and economists are always surprised when the real numbers come out.

The article concludes:

And wages continue rising: In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $27.90, following a 9-cent gain in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in a June 25 speech, said the economy has performed “reasonably well” so far this year, with continued growth and strong job creation keeping the unemployment rate near historic lows.

But Powell also mentioned “some ongoing cross-currents,” including trade uncertainty and incoming data about the strength of the global economy.

He said the Fed “will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion…” That could mean lower interest rates — or not, if the employment and job numbers remain strong.

Economic policies impact the economy. It matters who is occupying the White House. President Trump has proved that.