Tag Archives: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

The Latest Inflation Numbers

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On Thursday, The Epoch Times posted an article about the latest inflation numbers.

The article reports:

Falling energy prices helped U.S. inflation cool in March, slowing to its lowest level in six months.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate declined to 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent in February, the lowest reading since September.

Economists had penciled in a reading of 2.6 percent.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by a better-than-expected 0.1 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also eased to 2.8 percent. This is the first time that annual core inflation has been below 3 percent since early 2021.

The core CPI increased by 0.1 percent month over month, below the consensus forecast of 0.3 percent.

The article concludes:

Minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting revealed that policymakers are worried about tariff-driven inflation risks.

“Participants assessed that uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased, with almost all participants viewing risks to inflation as tilted to the upside and risks to employment as tilted to the downside,” the meeting summary, released on April 9, reads.

However, based on President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, many doom-and-gloom projections “can be dialed down a bit,” according to Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

“The so-called 90-day pause doesn’t remove all uncertainty or potential negative impacts but is helpful,” Hamrick said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

“Fears about a huge pickup in inflation and near-term recession risks can be dialed down a bit.”

The next major inflation report will be the March producer price index, which measures the prices businesses pay for goods and services. Economists pay attention to this gauge as it can serve as a precursor to future inflation trends.

Energy prices are one of the things that fuel inflation. As American becomes energy independent again, the cost of crude oil will continue to drop, gasoline prices will continue to drop, and inflation will gradually come down. Even if OPEC cuts production in an attempt to keep oil prices high, it is quite possible that America will be able to make up for the cut. At that point, OPEC may not want to continue losing revenue because of their production cuts. We are in a very interesting time economically right now. Stay out of debt and pay your bills on time!

What They Didn’t Tell You About The Jobs Report

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On Friday, The Daily Caller posted an article about the September jobs report. The article took a look a some of the trends in American employment in recent years.

The article reports:

More than 800,000 fewer native-born Americans are employed than last year as job gains among Americans continue to lag behind those of foreign-born workers, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The number of foreign-born workers employed increased by approximately 1.2 million year-over-year in September, while 825,000 fewer native workers were employed, BLS data shows. The large annual difference is in spite of the roughly 920,000 upward employment fluctuation for native-born workers in September compared to August, after a 1,325,000 drop from July to August.

The article also notes:

Real wages have decreased by 1.3% in real terms between the first quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2024 as Biden-era inflation continues to dog American wallets. Prices have risen more than 20% since Biden took office in January 2021, with the rate of inflation rising from 1.4% at the conclusion of former President Donald Trump’s administration up to roughly 9% in June 2022.

To combat skyrocketing inflation, the Federal Reserve hiked rates to a 23-year high range of 5.25% and 5.50% in July 2023 before proceeding to hold rates steady until issuing a 0.5% cut in September. The combination of elevated rates and high inflation helped push many Americans into bankruptcy, with delinquent credit card balances reaching their highest level since at least 2012 in the first quarter of 2024.

It should also be noted that the majority of growth in the number of jobs created is in government jobs–not in the private sector. When the government is growing, the private sector is shrinking. That is not good for the future American economy.

The New Jobs Report

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On Friday, The Epoch Times posted an article about the latest jobs report. The economy is cooling down, which will probably provide the Federal Reserve with an excuse to lower interest rates in the hope of providing a Democrat election victory.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy created fewer jobs than the market projected in August as the overheated labor market of the past few years continues to show signs of cooling off.

Last month, payrolls increased by 142,000, falling short of the consensus estimate of 160,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The unemployment rate eased to 4.2 percent, down from 4.3 percent in July. This was in line with economists’ expectations.

Average hourly wages surged at a higher-than-expected pace of 0.7 percent, up from a 0.1 percent drop in July—this was revised from the initial report of 0.2 percent growth. Average hourly earnings also climbed to a better-than-expected year-over-year rate of 3.8 percent, up from 3.6 percent.

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7 percent. Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.3 from 34.2.

Much of the job creation was concentrated in construction (34,000), health care (31,000), government (24,000), and social assistance (13,000).

There were some other interesting numbers in the report:

So far this year, the total number of downward job revisions equals 372,000.

The number of people working two or more jobs increased by 65,000 to 8.538 million.

In August, full-time jobs plummeted by more than 400,000, and part-time employment increased by 527,000.

Inflation is hurting all Americans, and until the government stops its runaway spending, inflation will continue to be a problem.

 

 

The Video That Tells It All

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In the previous article, I wrote that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had revised the jobs numbers down 818,000 for the time period between April 2023 and March 2024. That is a significant number, and one wonders how the calculations were so far off.

When asked about the change in the numbers, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo had a very interesting response.

The Conservative Treehouse posted the video:

Think carefully for a minute. Her first response is to blame President Trump. Really? Before she knows anything, it’s President Trump’s fault. Then, when confronted with the actual facts, she just brushes the whole thing off saying she doesn’t know anything about the matter. Shouldn’t the Secretary of Commerce have some idea of what the jobs situation is?

The political left loves to accuse President Trump of being a liar. Somehow they are never specific about what the actual lies are, and when they are specific, the charge generally falls apart very quickly–things taken out of context, euphemisms, etc. Yet here we have a person with no knowledge of the facts immediately going to ‘default’ mode–blame President Trump.

On Wednesday, The Gateway Pundit posted the following:

Scott Jennings, the right leaning pundit at CNN, has quickly made a name for himself by repeatedly introducing his network colleagues to reality.

In one of his most recent viral moments, he called out his fellow panelists during the DNC by reminding them who has been in charge at the White House for 12 of the last 16 years.

How is everything Trump’s fault when he was only there for four of those 16 years?

Very good question!

The Economic News Is Questionable At Best

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On Friday, The Epoch Times posted an article about the latest unemployment numbers. Bidenomics does not seem to be all that it is cracked up to be.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy created fewer jobs than expected while the unemployment rate increased, signaling that the labor market could be going through a rapid deceleration at a time when the Federal Reserve could soon be cutting interest rates.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), there were 114,000 new jobs in July, down from 179,000 in June. This fell short of the consensus estimate of 175,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent, and higher than economists’ expectations of 4.1 percent. This represents the highest jobless rate since October 2021.

Average hourly earnings eased to a smaller-than-expected pace of 3.6 percent year-over-year. On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings edged up 0.2 percent.

The labor force participation rate inched higher to 62.7 percent, from 62.6 percent. Average weekly hours slipped to 34.2, from 34.3.

Health care accounted for much of the jobs, with 55,000 new positions added last month. This was followed by construction (25,000) and government (17,000).

The article also noted:

Additionally, the household portion of the monthly jobs report, which removes duplication, showed the economy created 67,000 new jobs.

The number of people working two or more jobs surged to 8.473 million, up from 8.34 million. Full-time workers advanced by 448,000, while part-time workers declined by 325,000.

The divergence between U.S.-born and foreign-born workers widened compared to a year ago. U.S.-born workers tumbled by more than 1.2 million from July 2023. By comparison, foreign-born workers increased by roughly 1.3 million.

The economy right now has high inflation and wages that are not keeping up with inflation. The easiest way to ease inflation would be to resume domestic drilling and cut federal spending. Both would require the voters to make changes in both the White House and Congress in November.

The Real Data vs. What We Have Been Told

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On Monday, The Washington Examiner posted the following headline:

If economic growth seems too good to be true, that’s because it is

I would revise that headline slightly to “If economic growth is so good, why do people seem to be struggling financially?”

The article reports:

Perhaps the most notorious example this year has been the jobs numbers published by the Biden administration. Consider the newly released August jobs report. While the economy added 187,000 jobs last month, previous months were revised down by 110,000 jobs. That means 59% of the employment growth last month was jobs we thought we already had.

In fact, every monthly employment report this year has been revised down, meaning the economy has been adding fewer jobs than initially believed. Worse, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its semiannual benchmark revisions showing jobs were overestimated by more than 300,000.

Between the downward adjustments for the monthly data and the semiannual benchmark, the number of jobs has been revised down by almost 700,000. That’s 30% of the jobs initially estimated to have been added this year. Adding insult to injury, government jobs were revised upward with the semiannual benchmark.

To be clear, jobs data are normally revised, and occasionally, several months in a row will be revised in the same direction, sometimes heavily. But this year stands out because so many of the statistics have consistently turned out to be worse than initially estimated.

Other labor market indicators have followed this pattern. The number of job openings, a proxy for labor demand, has not only fallen over the last several months but previous levels were also revised down. The latest estimate shows job openings are now 2 million below the initial figure for the start of the year.

And the problem goes beyond the labor sector to the general economy. The revised estimate for gross domestic product in the second quarter of the year removed an eighth of the previously estimated growth, falling from 2.4% to 2.1%. Investment and business income, in particular, are in bad shape.

The media in America has brought us to the point where we have a choice either to believe what we see or what we are being told. We are told that Bidenomics is working and that we are all better off under President Biden. What we see tells a different story. It is our choice as to whether or not we believe our eyes or what we are being told.

How Is Bidenomics Working For You?

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On Thursday, The Daily Caller posted an article about the current state of the American economy.

The article reports:

Inflation rose in July after steadily declining from a high of 9.1% in June 2022, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release on Thursday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad measure of the prices of everyday goods like energy and food, increased 3.2% on an annual basis in July, compared to 3.0% in June, according to the BLS. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile categories of energy and food, remained high, rising 4.7% year-over-year in July, compared to 4.8% in June.

“Inflation has become much more ingrained in the economy than the White House, Congress, or the Fed want to admit,” E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Combined with slowing economic growth, we have the perfect recipe for stagflation.”

The workforce participation rate has remained at 62.6 since March. In February 2020, before Covid, it was 63.3. It began a downward spiral in March 2020 and has never fully recovered. The economy has not grown significantly–jobs added are simply the jobs coming back after the Covid pandemic.

The article concludes:

The U.S. added 187,000 jobs for the month of July, 13,000 fewer than economists expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The number of jobs for the months of June and May was revised down by a cumulative 49,000 jobs.

The U.S. economy grew at a rate of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023, surprising economists who anticipated a more modest expansion of 2%.

Unemployment And The Workforce Participation Rate

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According to USA Today, the unemployment rate for June 2023 was 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent in May. However, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the workforce participation rate remained unchanged at 62.6. The percentage of Americans in the workforce or looking for jobs has not changed since March. That is not an indication of a growing economy.

USA Today reports:

Hiring slowed but remained sturdy in June as U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs despite inflation, high interest rates and nagging recession fears.  

Still, that’s the weakest showing since employers shed jobs in December 2020.

The unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.6%, the Labor Department said Friday. 

Economists had estimated that 225,000 jobs were added last month.

Payroll gains for April and May were revised down by a total of 110,000, depicting somewhat weaker hiring in the spring than believed. The May rise in jobs was downgraded to 306,000 from 339,000.

On Saturday, Breitbart reported:

During an interview on Bloomberg on Friday, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein stated that the increase in the black unemployment rate “was statistically insignificant in June,” but the increase in black unemployment in May was statistically significant.

Co-host Romaine Bostic asked, “Well, what about some demographics? Our International Economics Correspondent Michael McKee pointed this out to me, that, when you look at unemployment rates in terms of demographics here, it went down for white men, it went down for white women, but it went up for blacks, it went up for Hispanics, and it went up for those who only have a high school education or less.”

How many minorities who have a high school education or less are being replaced in the labor force by the illegal aliens coming across our southern border? How many companies are hiring illegal aliens and paying them under the table at a much lower rate than Americans would accept? It is possible that this is part of the reason the minorities and people with a high school education or less are having trouble finding work?