Revising The Numbers

On Wednesday, The Conservative Treehouse posted an article about the rapidly decreasing job numbers.

The article quotes The Washington Times (behind the paywall):

WASHINGTON DC – […]  Job growth was overestimated by more than 770,000 last year. Put differently, about 1 in 4 jobs that were supposedly added last year never existed. That’s like eliminating all of the jobs gained in three whole months of 2023.

Overly optimistic employment estimates help explain why polling of people’s perceptions of the economy has been so terrible yet the official data from the Biden administration has looked so robust, at least in terms of the number of jobs. Much of the other data has been downright rotten.

With prices rising faster than earnings, the average worker’s weekly paycheck buys 4.4% less today than when President Biden took office. Homeownership affordability has plummeted because the monthly mortgage payment on a median-price home has more than doubled. Three-quarters of Americans now view fast food as a luxury they can’t afford. Gasoline prices are up 46%.

And now, even the job numbers have lost their luster, especially when you consider that millions of those added jobs are from double counting. Whenever someone who is already employed has to get a second — or even a third — job just to help make ends meet, that increases the number of payrolls, without increasing the number of people employed.

The Biden administration is very adept at lying with statistics. They consistently claim that President Biden has simply not been given enough credit for the wonderful economy he has created. I guess the people saying that don’t shop at the grocery store or buy gasoline.

Cooking The Books

The Biden administration claims that the economy is really doing well. Some of us who buy gasoline or shop at grocery stores might not agree with that statement. The other claim has been that there is a booming job market. Our city is have layoffs in some of our local companies, is yours? There seems to be something fishy here. On March 29th, Zero Hedge posted an article explaining what was fishy. This is one of those articles when I post what I don’t totally understand, so please be patient. I have very little to add–the article says it all.

The article reports:

The first red flags emerged in the summer of 2022: that’s when the Biden Labor Department started well and truly rigging the labor market data.

Regular readers may recall that it was back in July of 2022, when we first warned that something had “snapped” in the labor market: that’s when a striking discrepancy emerged between the number of US Payrolls (as measured by the BLS’ Establishment Survey, a far more crude and imprecise, yet much more market-moving data series), and the number of actual Employed Workers (as measured by the BLS’ far more accurate Household Survey) . As we showed then, after the two series had tracked each other tick for tick for years, a wide gap opened in March 2022 which quickly grew to 1.5 million jobs in just 3 months…

The article includes the following chart:

 

The article further explains:

And while some of this discrepancy could be explained with the record surge in multiple jobholders, which increased by 1 million since March 2022 to an all time high of 8.6 million at the end of 2023 (as a reminder, the Establishment Survey counts 1 worker have 2 or 3 (or more) multiple jobs as, well, 2 or 3 (or more) separate jobs, even if it is just one worker trying to make ends meet under the roaring inflation of Bidenomics), most of the gap remained unexplained.

There was more: it was around the summer of 2022 that the Biden labor department – in its zeal to show job growth no matter the cost, or quality of jobs – also started fooling around with the composition of the labor market, with most of the monthly gains going to part-time workers, even as full-time workers stagnated or declined. The culmination, as we reported earlier this month, is that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Which is great… until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

The article concludes:

Putting it all together, we now know – as the Philly Fed reported first – that the labor market is far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls are “missing” when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS’ woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls “data”, and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 230K jobs added on average every month but rather 130K.

Of course, none of that paints Bidenomics in a flattering picture, because while one can at least pretend that issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days to add 3 million jos per year is somewhat acceptable, learning that that ridiculous amount buys 800,000 jobs less is hardly the endorsement that the White House needs.

Which is also why nobody in the mainstream media – which is now nothing more than the PR smokescreen for the Biden puppetmasters, the government and the deep state – will ever mention this report.

As such, we urge all readers to read Philly Fed analysis (link here) and to analyze the excel data (link here) at their own leisure, because in a fascist state, the media no longer works for the people.

Think of these numbers when you vote in November.

A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words

President Biden and his administration are claiming that they have inflation under control and that Americans are doing better than ever. They can claim all they want, but a quick trip to the grocery store could quickly result in widespread skepticism.

On Friday, Red State posted an article where the Tweets tell the real story.

These are the tweets:

I realize it is hard to read, but the price went from $5.99 to $7.69 in three years–a 28 percent increase. Did your income go up 28 percent in those three years?

 

Things President Trump Got Right

First of all, why is President Clinton always referred to as President Clinton and President Trump often referred to a Donald Trump? Subtle manipulation by the media?

On Sunday, Breitbart posted the following headline:

New York Times Columnist Admits ‘ Trump Got Three Big Things Right’

If you honestly look at President Trump’s accomplishments and record as President and compare it to where we are now, your choice in November is obvious.

The article analyses The New York Times article:

The January 11 article was posted under the headline: “The case for Trump … by someone who wants him to lose.”

Stephens wrote that “you can’t defeat an opponent if you refuse to understand what makes him formidable [and] too many people, especially progressives, fail to think deeply about the enduring sources of his appeal.”

…“Enforcing control at the border — whether through a wall, a fence or some other mechanism — isn’t racism,” Stephens wrote. “It’s a basic requirement of statehood and peoplehood, which any nation has an obligation to protect and cherish.”

Trump also caught the public’s mood of decline and pessimism, Stephens wrote. “Far too little has changed since then … If anything, Trump’s thesis may be truer today than it was the first time he ran on it,” Stephens admitted.

Trump also amplified the public’s falling trust in experts, professionals, and merit institutions that were supposed to be independent of politics, Stephens wrote.

…Many voters in 20224 will remember Trump’s first term fondly, he said. “Americans have reasons to remember the Trump years as good ones … Wages outpaced inflation, something they have just begun to do under Biden.

I question the claim that wages have begun to outpace inflation. What used to be a $75 trip to the grocery store is still about $125. President Trump represents the hope of the American people that someone will speak up for them in Washington. We don’t want the government meddling in the home appliance market. We don’t the government performing S.W.A.T. raids on citizens that are not a threat to society. We don’t want the government refusing to enforce the law when Supreme Court Justices have their homes unlawfully picketed.

The Real Cost Of Living

Washington always finds a way to lie with statistics when it comes to the economy. Limiting the items included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one way to convince Americans that inflation isn’t as bad as it seems and also a way to limit the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) of various federal disbursements. However, those fake numbers don’t help Americans deal with the rising cost of food and gasoline.

On Sunday, PJ Media posted an article about the rising cost of living in America.

The article reports:

Perhaps the most misleading government statistic of all is the Consumer Price Index. The CPI is an incredibly important statistic because so many government programs that benefit American citizens are tied to that number.

It’s usually cited as the inflation rate, but it’s not really. The CPI is the rate of increase in a subjective “market basket” of goods and services. The things that concern you and me the most as far as price increases have very little to do with the CPI. The CPI doesn’t track food or gas prices at the pump, so the CPI that we see every month doesn’t tell us anything useful.

Right now, the CPI stands at 3.1%. That’s down from a high of 9.1% in June 2022. But even that doesn’t tell us the whole inflation story because along with skyrocketing food and gas prices, real wages failed to keep pace with the price increases.

According to The New York Sun:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released jobs numbers this morning that show non-farm wages increased 4.1 percent in the past year, which is above the inflation rate of 3.1 percent. The problem is that inflation-adjusted real hourly wages — those of the average blue-collar or middle-class person — are down 4.7 percent today from when Mr. Biden took office. That’s a weekly earnings decline in real wages to $381 in November 2023 from $399 in January 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“The reason Biden polls so badly is that there’s a decline in wages and an increase in prices,” a former economic adviser to President Trump, Larry Kudlow, tells the Sun. He calls this the “affordability crisis.”

Americans feel it when they walk into the grocery store. Food prices increased nearly 6 percent in 2023, according to the Department of Agriculture. In 2022, at-home food prices — what one buys in a grocery store — increased more than 11 percent. No matter one’s income, it’s hard not to notice the rising cost of food at the grocery store and at restaurants — even fast food.

Are voters going to believe what they are told or what they see?

Ignoring The Root Of The Problem

On Saturday, The Daily Wire posted an article about Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s announcement of a partnership with a far-left non-profit to advance his proposal of a government-owned grocery store, which he argues is needed for the sake of “racial justice.”

The article reports:

Mayor Brandon Johnson said in a press release this month that the city-owned grocery store — which would be the largest of its kind in the U.S. — is needed to address the exit of corporate grocery stores and promote “food equity.”

“[F]ood access and security link directly to environmental and racial justice,” Johnson’s office said in a press release, adding that “37% of Black residents and 29% of Latine/x residents are food insecure, compared to 19% of residents overall.”

The mayor’s office argued that “historic disinvestment has led to inequitable access to food retail across Chicago,” and noted that “existing inequities have been exacerbated as at least six grocery stores closed on the South and West sides over the past two years.”

Indeed, as Chicago continues to reel with violent crime and large-scale theft, corporate grocery stores like Walmart and Amazon-owned Whole Foods have recently packed up and left Chicago.

There  is so much here that is totally backwards. Does anyone trust the city of Chicago to run a grocery store without major corruption? Has anyone noticed that the lack of grocery stores in some areas could be changed by enforcing laws that would prevent crime in those areas? How about leaving criminals in jail so that the citizens of Chicago are safe?

For example, Chicago has some of the toughest gun laws in America. However, in 2022, Chicago topped 600 homicides and 2,600 shootings in 2022, according to new Chicago Police Department data (source here). I suspect if Chicago dealt with the crime problem the lack-of-grocery-stores problem might solve itself.

The article concludes:

“We are not spending any taxpayer dollars, right?” she told CBS Chicago. “What we’re also going to be able to access is the funding that exists at the national level and the state level.”

Moreover, the mayor’s office has already acknowledged that this project, if completed, will also use economic grant money, which, too, comes from taxpayers.

Critics have said this grocery store proposal is akin to “Soviet-style central planning.” Detractors have also highlighted the city’s penchant for corruption and the city’s half-a-billion dollar deficit to question how the store could be efficient. There are also still questions about how prices would be set, how this would be superior to private grocery stores, and how it would affect private enterprise.

We all need to remember that grant money comes from taxpayers. There really is no free lunch!

Solving A Less-Than-Obvious Problem

The Conservative Treehouse posted an article today about a recent waiver signed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott.

This is a screenshot of the waiver recently signed by the Governor:

The article reports:

Leadership is often about recognizing the unique landscape and taking ‘outside the box’ action in response to current conditions.  Greg Abbott recognizes there are two distinctly different supply-chains, and this modification can open one distribution valve.

Most consumers are not aware food consumption in the U.S. is now a 50/50 proposition. Approximately 50% of all food was consumed “outside the home” (or food away from home), and 50% of all food consumed was food “inside the home” (grocery shoppers).

Food ‘outside the home’ includes: restaurants, fast-food locales, schools, corporate cafeterias, university lunchrooms, manufacturing cafeterias, hotels, food trucks, park and amusement food sellers and many more.  Many of those venues are not thought about when people evaluate the overall U.S. food delivery system; however, this network was approximately 50 percent of all food consumption on a daily basis.

This will help the shortages that are appearing in the grocery stores. It will also help restaurants with their bottom line while they are closed. I would also like to remind people when possible to do ‘take out’ from the restaurants you normally frequent. This will help those restaurants recover more quickly. I personally had a fantastic quiche for lunch from Carolina Bagel!

From A Friend On Facebook

I don’t know if this is true, but it’s a great story.

One of my sons serves in the military. He is still stateside, here in California. He called me yesterday to let me know how warm and welcoming people were to him and his troops everywhere he goes, telling me how people shake their hands and thank them for being willing to serve and fight for not only our own freedoms, but so that others may have them also.

But he also told me about an incident in the grocery store he stopped at yesterday on his way home from the base. He said that ahead of several people in front of him stood a woman dressed in a burkha.

He said when she got to the cashier she loudly remarked about the U.S. flag lapel pin the cashier wore on her smock. The cashier reached up and touched the pin, and said proudly, “Yes, I always wear it and probably always will.”

The woman in the burkha then asked the cashier when she was going to stop bombing her countrymen, explaining that she was Iraqi.

A gentleman standing behind my son stepped forward.

Putting his arm around my son’s shoulders and nodding towards my son, he said in a calm and gentle voice to the Iraqi woman: Lady, hundreds of thousands of men and women like this young man have fought and died so that YOU could stand here, in MY country and accuse a check-out cashier of bombing YOUR countrymen. It is my belief that had you been this outspoken in YOUR own country, we wouldn’t need to be there today. But, hey, if you have now learned how to speak out so loudly and clearly, I’ll gladly buy you a ticket and pay your way back to Iraq so you can straighten out the mess in YOUR country that you are obviously here in MY country to avoid.”

Everyone within hearing distance cheered!

Something To Keep In Mind As We Debate Who Should Be Allowed To Have Guns

Townhall.com posted a story today about a store owner who stopped a robbery.

The article reports:

Robberies happen far too often, but a robber coming face-to-face with a gun-carrying grandmother is a little more rare.

Ernestine Aldana owns a grocery store near the corner of Muskego Avenue and Becher Street in Milwaukee. On Dec. 14, Aldana was working in the store when a man entered the store and pulled a knife on her.

“I was really scared,” she said.

But as the man reached for cash from the drawer, Aldana pulled a gun from underneath the counter.

“I didn’t think,” she said. “I didn’t remember what was being said. I just took a step back, grabbed the gun and that was that.”

As the gun came out, the man ran away.

Aldana said she and her husband have owned the grocery store for just over two years and have not encountered any problems before this. She said her son bought the gun for their protection, but they never thought they would have to use it.

It is a pretty safe bet that the story would have ended differently if Adlana had not owned the gun and kept it handy. This is the kind of story we need to keep in mind as we listen to Washington discuss laws that will take guns out of the hands of law-abiding citizens, but not out of the hands of criminals.

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