Tag Archives: CNBC

How Is The Economy Doing?

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Obviously, the increase in gasoline prices because of the war in Iran is going to impact inflation, but that should be a temporary increase. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is doing a good job of keeping inflation under control.

On Wednesday, CNBC reported:

  • The consumer price index rose 2.4% in February from a year earlier, unchanged from January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • That’s still slightly above policymakers’ long-term inflation target, economists said.
  • War in Iran complicates the picture. The conflict has caused oil prices to soar since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, raising prices for gasoline and other types of fuel.

The article at CNBC includes the following charts:

The article concludes:

Overall the CPI inflation also looks better on paper than in reality due to a quirk in the data from the government shutdown in the fall.

The record-long shutdown, which ran from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, prevented federal statisticians from collecting typical inflation data in October. Without that data, the BLS assumed that no price increases had taken place during the month for most categories of goods and services.

Taking that measurement quirk into account, the CPI inflation is likely around 2.7%, about 0.3 percentage point higher than reported Wednesday, said Zandi of Moody’s.

The Latest Economic Numbers

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On Wednesday, CNBC posted an article about the January Jobs Report.

The article reports:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 for January, above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 55,000.
  • The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%. A more encompassing measure slipped to 8%, down 0.4 percentage point from December.
  • As has often been the case for the U.S. labor market, health care led job gains in December, adding 82,000 positions. Social assistance also rose, up 42,000, while construction added 33,000.
  • The BLS also released final benchmark revisions for the year prior to March 2025. Those numbers saw the initial counts revised lower by a total 898,000, about in line with expectations.

The Workforce Participation Rate eased up slightly in January to 62.5.

The article at CNBC concludes:

However, the December numbers provide some reason for optimism.

While the establishment survey showed more jobs than expected, the household survey was even stronger. Used to calculate the unemployment rate, the survey showed a gain of 528,000 workers for the month as the labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.5%.

The data likely solidifies the Federal Reserve staying on hold with interest rates.

Futures traders raised bets that the Fed would hold the line at its March meeting, though the expectation is still titled toward a cut in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

PJ Media also posted an article on the Jobs Report on Wednesday, but had a slightly different angle.

PJ Media notes:

The growth is focused on the private sector, which is good news because it is the private sector that drives economic growth. In fact, federal employment is at its lowest level as a share of the workforce since 1966. While economists expected private payrolls to grow by 70,000, the actual number is 172,000 for January. Government payrolls lost 42,000 jobs at both the state and federal levels combined.

…The economy added 5,000 manufacturing jobs, which is the opposite of economists’ prediction that it would lose 5,000 jobs, according to Fox Business. Job numbers for November and December were revised down, however, for a loss of about 17,000 jobs from the original statistics over those two months.

The DOL also announced on Feb. 10, “For the first time since 1999, U.S. steel production has surpassed Japan’s.” This is very important. For too long, we have been shipping our manufacturing overseas, especially to hostile nations like Communist China, leaving ourselves dependent on the whims of foreign leaders. Boosting American manufacturing is a necessary move for our independence and national security.

We are not yet where we need to be, but we are heading in the right direction.

More Good Economic News

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On Thursday, CNBC posted an article about the October trade deficit.

The article reports:

  • The U.S. trade deficit six months into President Donald Trump’s tariffs tumbled to its lowest level since mid-2009, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
  • The total was the lowest since the second quarter of 2009 as the U.S. was just coming out of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.

The U.S. trade deficit six months into President Donald Trump’s tariffs tumbled to its lowest level since mid-2009, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

With exports rising and imports falling, the trade shortfall was just $29.4 billion for October, down 39% from the prior month. Exports increased 2.6% while imports slipped 3.2%.

The total was the lowest since the second quarter of 2009 as the U.S. was just coming out of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.

The numbers reflect the trade activity since Trump levied his “liberation day” tariffs in April 2025. Economists and policymakers worried that the levies would work against the U.S. by inviting retaliation and slowing the movement of goods and services around the world. However, Trump has backed off many of the most severe tariff threats he made, and the data shows a strong market for U.S. products.

To be sure, the year-to-date deficit still was 7.7% higher than the same period in 2024.

The article concludes:

“The latest figures suggest firms are successfully doing more with less labor, giving more credence to a jobless expansion,” said Matthew Martin, senior economist at Oxford Economics. “Productivity will be key to determining the economy’s speed limit and inflationary dynamics. If productivity growth continues to accelerate due to tax cuts, deregulation, and technological advancements, including AI, economic growth can pick up without causing unwanted inflation.”

Though hiring has been weak, the Labor Department reported Thursday that layoffs are holding low.

Initial unemployment claims for the week ended Jan. 3 totaled 208,000, pushing the four-week moving average to its lowest since April 27, 2024.

President Trump is a businessman. When our Founding Fathers formed our government, they did not want career politicians. As we have seen, career politicians talk about problems and corruption, but they don’t seem to do anything about them.

The Trump Economy

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On Tuesday, CNBC posted an article reporting that the U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in third quarter, much more than expected (the mainstream media always has low expectations during a Republican administration).

The article reports:

The U.S. economy grew at a much greater-than-expected pace in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer spending, a delayed report released Tuesday showed.

U.S. gross domestic product, a sum of all goods and services produced in the sprawling U.S. economy, expanded by 4.3% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its initial reading of third-quarter growth. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a gain of 3.2%.

Consumer spending expanded by 3.5% in the third quarter after rising 2.5% in the second quarter.

Increases in exports and government spending also boosted growth, while a smaller dip in private fixed investment helped as well.

The report originally had been scheduled for release on Oct. 30 but was delayed by the government shutdown. This release also replaces a second estimate that was set to drop on Nov. 26. The department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis will release one final estimate later.

A measure of growth called real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3% in the quarter, up 0.1 percentage point from the prior period. Federal Reserve policymakers watch the data point closely for signs of consumer demand.

When gas at the pump is $1 less a gallon or more, people have more spending money and don’t feel the pressure of inflation quite as much. If you put 15 gallons of gas in your car every week, you have saved $60 a month without doing anything. The lower price also encourages people to travel and spend a little more freely than they otherwise might. Unfortunately, the price of diesel fuel has remained high.

About The November Jobs Report

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On Tuesday, CNBC reported that delayed jobs numbers show payrolls rose by 64,000 in November after falling by 105,000 in October. That’s good news, but there is even better news in the details of the report.

A Press Release from U.S. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer states:

“November’s jobs report shows our economy continues to gain momentum despite the economic mess President Trump inherited from the Biden administration and the reckless Democrat shutdown. With 64,000 jobs added in November, more and more Americans are coming off the sidelines and working in the private sector. Investment has been booming thanks to the President’s America First policies, leading to strong nonresidential construction growth.

“Importantly, the growth we are seeing is concentrated in the private sector and among native-born Americans. Federal employment has retreated to the lowest level in over a decade, completely reversing the previous administration’s federal hiring frenzy.

“The Trump Administration remains laser-focused on making life more affordable for all Americans. Average private sector weekly earnings are on track to rise 4.2 percent during the President’s first year in office, providing working families with more purchasing power as wages outpace inflation. We will continue to double down on our efforts to put American Workers First by building a Golden Age of economic prosperity.”

We have no workforce participation rate figures from October because of the government shutdown. In September the rate was 62.4; in November it was 62.5. That is a number that changes very slowly, but it is moving in the right direction. It was 62.4 in February, President Trump’s first full month in office.

One thing to notice in this press release and in the President’s speech on Wednesday night is the statement about the economic mess created by the Biden administration. Many Americans suffered under Biden economics. Because of the economic policies of President Trump, many Americans are now climbing out of the hole they were in because of the economic policies of the Biden administration. We need to send businessmen to Washington–not politicians.

Sunlight Is The Best Disinfectant

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On Tuesday, CNBC reported that a New York federal judge ordered the unsealing of grand jury materials related to the criminal prosecution of Ghislaine Maxwell.

The article reports:

A New York federal judge on Tuesday ordered the unsealing of grand jury materials and other documents related to the prosecution of Ghislaine Maxwell, the British socialite convicted in 2021 of procuring underage girls to be sexually abused by Jeffrey Epstein.

Judge Paul Engelmayer’s order came at the request of the Department of Justice, which cited the Epstein Files Transparency Act that Congress passed last month.

The act mandates that the DOJ disclose investigative material about Epstein, a former friend of President Donald Trump who killed himself in jail in August 2019, weeks after being arrested on federal child sex trafficking charges.

Maxwell is serving a 20-year prison term for her conviction.

Grand jury materials are normally permanently sealed by law.

Because of that, Engelmayer denied the DOJ’s initial request over the summer to unseal grand jury materials in Maxwell’s case.

In his order on Tuesday, the judge noted that the Epstein files “Act does not explicitly refer to grand jury materials.”

But, Englemayer added, “The Court nonetheless holds — again in agreement with DOJ — that the Act textually covers the grand jury materials in this case.”

The article concludes:

Although he granted the DOJ’s request to unseal the materials, the judge slapped prosecutors for again not giving notice to Maxwell’s and Epstein’s victims before asking that the materials be made public.

“In its two rounds of applications to this Court to disclose records, DOJ, although paying lip service to Maxwell’s and Epstein’s victims, has not treated them with the solicitude they deserve,” Engelmayer wrote.

“In applying on November 24, 2025 for leave to release records pursuant to the Act, DOJ again acted without notice to Maxwell’s and Epstein’s victims,” the judge wrote.

“The Court … were compelled again to direct DOJ forthwith to notify these victims of its latest motion, and to set a deadline for victims’ submissions.

I really don’t care how much of this is made public–I just want to see the people involved in the illegal actions go to jail.

The September Jobs Report Is Out

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The September jobs report was delayed because of the government shutdown. It is now out.

CNBC reported on November 20:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision, according to a long-delayed report Thursday from the BLS.
  • The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, the highest it’s been since October 2021. A broader measure edged lower to 8%.
  • Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
  • The report ends a data drought on the labor market that began in early September and continued through the record 44-day government shutdown.

The workforce participation rate eased up slightly to 62.4. Notice also that average hourly earnings increased slightly for the month and 3.8 per for the year. People also have more spending money due to the lower cost of gasoline.

The article notes:

The total level of those employed rose by 251,000 while the labor force increased by 470,000 to a fresh record of 171.2 million. The participation rate, which measures the share of the working-age population either working or seeking employment, edged higher to 62.4, the highest since May.

The rolls of full-time employment swelled by 673,000 while part-times fell by 573,000.

The article concludes:

The lack of comprehensive indicators has presented a challenge for Fed officials, who cut their benchmark interest rate in both September and October but face a tougher decision in December. Officials at the October meeting noted the difficulty in navigating policy without the usual array of economic metrics to rely on, and there was a significant inclination to forgo a December cut, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

With September’s payrolls count released, the BLS is preparing the first influx of other data in coming months. The bureau on Wednesday announced it will release jobs data for October and November simultaneously on Dec. 16. October’s numbers will not include the customary unemployment rate calculation as that comes from a survey of households that will not be able to be completed because of the shutdown.

It will be interesting to see the October and November numbers. Despite what the mainstream media is telling us, the economy seems to be turning around–jobs are increasing and the rate of inflation is slowing going down.

What Happens Next

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The Senate has voted to end the government shutdown. CNBC posted an article on Monday (updated Tuesday) explaining what happens next.

The article reports:

  • The Senate passed a bill to end the U.S. government shutdown.
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson called for House members to travel to Washington, D.C., so that they can vote as soon as possible on the deal.
  • To end the shutdown, the House needs to pass the Senate bill, and then President Donald Trump must sign it into law.

There are some grumblings among more liberal Democrats that they will try to stop the bill in the House, but I don’t think they will succeed.

The article notes:

House members were told that votes on the deal could begin by 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Before the Senate vote, Johnson refused to commit to the deal’s key guarantee to Democrats: that Congress will hold a separate vote in December on potentially extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. That vote would be on a bill of the Democrats’ choosing, according to the Senate agreement.

“I’m not committing to it or not committing to it,” Johnson, R-La., said Monday on CNN.

Those subsidies, which are due to expire at the end of December, help reduce the cost of individual health insurance plans for more than 20 million Americans.

What the article fails to mention is that the subsidies go to the insurance companies rather than to the people buying the insurance. The insurance companies have no incentive to lower premiums or cut costs. The impact of the subsidies going to the insurance companies on the price of insurance is similar to what happened to college tuition when the government got involved in the student loan program. When you take away incentive to lower prices, prices do not get lowered.

The article concludes:

The Senate deal would fund the government through the end of January; reverse all shutdown-related layoffs of federal employees; and guarantee that all federal workers will be paid their normal salaries during the shutdown.

The deal also includes provisions for a bipartisan budget process and prevents the White House from using continuing resolutions to fund the government.

CRs have been repeatedly used to avoid government shutdowns, but are controversial because they frequently avoid lawmakers having to make decisions about long-term funding of the government that a normal budget would resolve.

The deal would also fund, through September, the SNAP program, which helps feed 42 million Americans through food stamps.

Under a federal law passed in 2019, government employees who are furloughed during a shutdown must be paid for the time they were out of work at their standard rate of pay “at the earliest date possible, regardless of scheduled pay dates.”

These Are The Numbers

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Om Tuesday, CNBC posted an article reporting that because the government is currently shut down, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will now release a four-week average weekly change in employment with a two-week lag every Tuesday.

The article reports:

Private sector employers added an average 14,250 jobs per week over the past four weeks, according to new preliminary data being released by ADP, a turnaround from the negative September numbers.

Stepping into the void created by the government shutdown, ADP will now release a four-week average weekly change in employment with a two-week lag every Tuesday. Today’s number is the four-week average ended Oct. 11.

“ADP’s near real-time employment data, released weekly, will now provide an even clearer picture of the labor market at this critical time for the economy … providing a dynamic view of job creation and loss at an unprecedented level of weekly detail,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.

This preliminary data will be different from the better-known and closely followed National Employment Report, generally released on the Wednesday before the government’s payroll number. The NER measures the monthly change in job growth during the week that contains the 12th of the month and provides detail of job growth by sector.

I am looking forward to more accurate numbers than were previously reported by the government during the Biden administration.

Some Good News About The Economy

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On Wednesday, CNBC reported the following:

  • Gross domestic product jumped to 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
  • Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
  • While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
  • President Donald Trump responded to the GDP report with a fresh demand for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

In another article posted on Wednesday, CNBC reported:

  • Private payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 104,000 for the month, reversing a loss of 23,000 in June and topping the Dow Jones forecast for an increase of 64,000.
  • Wages rose at a 4.4% annual pace for the month, about in line with recent trends.

The first article mentioned reports:

The U.S. economy grew at a much stronger-than-expected pace in the second quarter, powered by a turnaround in the trade balance and renewed consumer strength, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Gross domestic product, a sum of goods and services activity across the sprawling U.S. economy, jumped 3% for the April through June period, according to figures adjusted for seasonality and inflation.

That topped the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% and helped reverse a decline of 0.5% for the first quarter that came largely due to a huge drop in imports, which subtract from the total, as well as weak consumer spending amid tariff concerns.

Financial markets reacted little to the report, with stock index futures mixed and Treasury yields higher.

“The word of the summer for the economy is ‘resilient,’” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The consumer is hanging in there, but still on edge until the trade deals are done.”

The second article reports:

Hiring at private companies rebounded at a stronger than expected pace in July, indicating the labor market is holding its ground, ADP reported Wednesday.

Payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 104,000 for the month, reversing a loss of 23,000 in June and topping the Dow Jones forecast from economists for an increase of 64,000. The June number was revised up from an initially reported loss of 33,000.

Though the pace of hiring is well off where it stood last year, the June total was the best since March and consistent with a slowing but still fairly vibrant jobs picture.

“Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.”

At the present time, it looks as if hiring a businessman as President was a good choice for the economy.

A Statement That Makes The Deep State Tremble

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The Federal Reserve is a misnamed sketchy operation. There is a book and a YouTube video called “The Creature From Jekyll Island” that explains the dirty tricks involved in the creation of the Federal Reserve and its true purpose. The Federal Reserve is neither federal nor a reserve. Auditing the fed is a really good idea that the fed has avoided for years.

On Monday, Hot Air posted an article quoting CNBC:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday suggested a review of the Federal Reserve that would go beyond the current controversy over building renovations and look at its overall function.

“What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful,” Bessent said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “Has the organization succeeded in its mission? If this were the [Federal Aviation Administration] and we were having this many mistakes, we would go back and look at why has this happened.”

The article also quotes Senator Rand Paul:

Dr. Rand Paul (R-KY) has reintroduced the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, famously known as “Audit the Fed” legislation to require a full audit of the Federal Reserve’s operations and increase congressional oversight of its decision-making. In conjunction with the bill’s reintroduction, Senator Paul also released the latest edition of his Waste Report, which exposed the Federal Reserve’s $600 million cost overrun on renovations to its Washington, D.C. headquarters—now projected to cost taxpayers $2.5 billion in total. The report underscores the lack of transparency and accountability at the Fed, which remains exempt from a full audit by Congress or the Government Accountability Office.

“No institution holds more power over the future of the American economy and the value of our savings than the Federal Reserve,” said Dr. Paul. “It’s long past time for Congress to stop shirking its duty and hold the Federal Reserve accountable.”

“It is Congress’ duty to hold the Fed accountable,” said Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). “For too long, the Federal Reserve has operated behind closed doors while making decisions that impact the American economy. Throughout my service in Congress, I have worked to audit the Fed, and this legislation is necessary to shine a light on the Fed’s operations and provide transparency to Congress and American taxpayers.”

The year 1913 was a horrible year for the Democratic Republic of America. That year gave us the federal income tax, the federal reserve, and the direct election of U.S. Senators. All three of those things need to go away.

Sanity Returns To The Auto Industry

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Electric cars may be a good idea if you live in a city with a temperate climate, but they are a problem if you live in a place with very cold winters or if you plan a long trip. Cold weather significantly impacts the life of the battery, and a long trip in an electric vehicle requires planning based on where the car chargers are and whether they are fast-charging or slow-charging. There may be a future for electric cars, but I believe some more tweaking of the technology is necessary. Ultimately, the free market should determine the success or failure of electric cars–not the government.

On Tuesday, Breitbart reported:

General Motors has announced plans to expand production of gas-powered vehicles and SUVs in Michigan as well as the manufacturing of pickup trucks.

The Detroit-based auto manufacturer said in a statement on Tuesday that it will “begin production of the Cadillac Escalade, as well as the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra light duty pickups at Orion Assembly in early 2027 to help meet continued strong customer demand.”

According to CNBC, the Escalade is produced in Arlington, Texas, while the Silverado and Sierra trucks are made at an assembly plant in Fort Wayne, Indiana, which will continue to produce the vehicles.

The article concludes:

While GM has seen a surge in EV sales recently, overall customer demand for EVs have not met expectations.

“For years, the automotive industry has been in a state of EV euphoria. Automakers trotted out optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and announced ambitious targets for EV growth. Wall Street boosted valuations for legacy automakers and startup entrants alike, based in part on their visions for an EV future,” CNBC reported.

“Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Ford Motor and General Motors to Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans,” it added.

The Latest Inflation Numbers

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When reading statistics about anything, remember that a good statistician can make numbers say anything he wants them to say. With that in mind, I think the June inflation numbers look really good.

On Tuesday, CNBC reported:

  • The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%, in line with expectations.
  • Core inflation picked up 0.2% on the month, with the annual rate moving to 2.9%, with the annual rate in line with estimates.
  • While the evidence in June was mixed on how much influence tariffs had over prices, there were signs that the duties are having an impact. Apparel and home furnishing prices rose, though vehicle prices fell.

…Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation picked up 0.2% on the month, with the annual rate moving to 2.9%, with the annual rate in line with estimates. The monthly level was slightly below the outlook for a 0.3% gain.

Inflation in June 2022 was 9.1 percent, but began going down slowly after that. Somehow, though, even when the rate of inflation comes down, the price of everything does not go back to where it started.

The article concludes:

Amid the previously muted inflation ratings, Trump has been urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which it has not done since December. The president has insisted that tariffs are not aggravating inflation, and has contended that the Fed’s refusal to ease is raising the costs the U.S. has to pay on its burgeoning debt and deficit problem.

Central bankers, led by Chair Jerome Powell, have refused to budge. They insist that the U.S. economy is in a strong enough position now that the Fed can afford to wait to see the impact tariffs will have on inflation. Trump in turn has called on Powell to resign and is certain to name someone else to the job when the chair’s term expires in May 2026.

Markets expect the Fed to stay on hold when it meets at the end of July and then cut by a quarter percentage point in September.

The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 for the purpose of concentrating America’s wealth in the New York City Banks (yes, I know that wasn’t what you were told). It needs to go away. For further information, see The Creature from Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin.

This Could Be The Start Of Something Big!

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On Friday, CNBC reported the following:

  • With government red ink swelling throughout the year, June saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May.
  • Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and a 301% gain from June 2024.

CNBC notes:

That brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion, up 5% from a year ago. However, with calendar adjustment, the deficit actually edged lower by 1%. There are three months left in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30.

A 13% increase in receipts from the same month a year ago helped bridge the gap, with outlays down 7%. For the year, receipts are up 7% while spending has risen 6%.

The government last posted a June surplus in 2017, during President Donald Trump’s first term.

Increasing tariff collections are helping shore up the government finances.

Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and 301% higher than June 2024. On an annual basis, tariff collections have totaled $113 billion, or 86% more than a year ago.

The article notes that the interest on the debt is a major budget item:

Net interest on the $36 trillion national debt totaled $84 billion in June, down slightly from May but still higher than any other category with the exception of Social Security. For the year, net interest — what Treasury pays on the debt it issues minus what it earns on investments — is at $749 billion. Total interest payments are projected at $1.2 trillion for the full fiscal year.

Lowering interest rates would bring down that cost.

The June Jobs Report Is Out

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On June 3rd, Fox Business posted an article about the June Jobs Report. The economy is improving rapidly, but there are still some weak spots.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added jobs in June at a faster pace than in recent months, despite economic uncertainty stemming from trade, tax and monetary policy.

The Labor Department on Thursday reported that employers added 147,000 jobs in June. That figure was above the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who projected 110,000 jobs would be added.

The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%, which was lower than economists’ expectations of 4.3%.

Job gains in the prior two months were both revised, with job creation in April revised up by 11,000 from a gain of 147,000 to 158,000; and May job gains were revised up by 5,000 from a gain of 139,000 to 144,000. Taken together, employment in April and May was 16,000 jobs higher than previously reported.

The workforce participation rate has remained steady.

I don’t know how to reconcile this information with a post from CNBC on Wednesday that reported:

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

The article at Fox Business concludes:

“The U.S. job market continues to largely stand tall and sturdy, even as headwinds mount – but it may be a tent increasingly held up by fewer poles,” said Cory Stahle, Indeed Hiring Lab economist. “The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare and social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will likely ring hollow.”

The market viewed the June jobs report as solidifying the outlook for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for its fifth consecutive meeting later this month. 

The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in July declined from 23.8% a day ago to 6.7% on Thursday following the report’s release, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

We need an interest cut now to help with the government’s interest payments and to help the real estate market. Right now the real estate market is being held hostage by the refusal to cut interest rates.

If The Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed, Who Loses?

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On Monday, CNBC posted an article about Iran’s Parliament voting to block the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty percent of the world’s oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

  • Should Iran follow through on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, it could alienate its neighbors and trade partners.
  • But the possibility of a closure of the strait is low, experts said, despite Tehran’s rhetoric around closing the strait.
  • A closure would provoke Iran’s markets in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports.

The article continues:

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that Iran had shipped 1.5 million barrels per day via the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter of 2025.

Furthermore, a closure would also provoke Iran’s market in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports.

“So very, very little to be achieved, and a lot of self inflicted harm that Iran could do” Hari said.

Her view is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global head of policy research at advisory firm Signum Global Advisors.

Iran will not want to antagonize China, he said, adding that disrupting supplies will also “put a target” on the country’s own oil production, export infrastructure, and regime “at a time when there is little reason to doubt U.S. and Israeli resolve in being ‘trigger-happy.’”

Clayton Seigle, senior fellow for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that as China is “very dependent” on oil flows from the Gulf, not just Iran, “its national security interest really would value stabilization of the situation and a de-escalation enabling safe flows of oil and gas through the strait.”

Iran does not need to alienate anyone right now. I am sure many of the Middle Eastern countries are breathing a sigh of relief knowing that Iran at the moment does not have nuclear capability.

The Statistics On The American Economy

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On June 17th, CNBC posted an article on some of the latest economic numbers.

The highlights of the article are:

  • Retail sales declined 0.9%, even more than the 0.6% drop expected from the Dow Jones consensus.
  • However, excluding a series of items such as auto dealers, building materials suppliers, gas stations and others, sales increased 0.4%.
  • The pullback in retail sales came despite surveys showing that consumer sentiment actually increased in May.

The article concludes:

The pullback in retail sales came despite surveys showing that consumer sentiment actually improved in May, though compared with levels that had been falling through the year. The ongoing trade war ignited by President Trump’s tariffs had dented consumer and business optimism, though an easing in some of the rhetoric amid a 90-day negotiating period has led to better readings.

GDP declined at a 0.2% annualized pace in the first quarter but is projected to rebound. Second-quarter growth heading into the retail sales release was pegged at 3.8%, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker of rolling data. The gauge will be updated later Tuesday.

In other economic news Tuesday, import prices were flat against a forecast for a 0.1% decline, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Export prices fell 0.9%.

We are in an economic transition period right now. I am hopeful that when the smoke clears, income taxes will be lower, the amount of revenue going to the government because of tariffs and the fact that revenue increases when taxes are lower (see laffer curve), government spending will be down, and Americans will have higher wages and more buying power.

About Those Tariffs…

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On Sunday, CNBC reported the following:

China’s exports growth missed expectations in May, dragged down by a sharp decline in shipments to the U.S., with analysts saying effects of the Beijing-Washington trade truce will be visible in June data.

Chinese exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5% from a year ago, marking the sharpest drop since February 2020, according to Wind Information, when the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted trade. Imports from the U.S. dropped over 18%, and China’s trade surplus with America shrank by 41.55% year on year to $18 billion.

Overall exports rose 4.8% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Monday, shy of Reuters’ poll estimates of a 5% jump.

Imports plunged 3.4% in May from a year earlier, a drastic drop compared to economists’ expectations of a 0.9% fall. Imports had been declining this year, largely owed to sluggish domestic demand.

That was largely offset by its shipment to the Southeast Asian bloc, which jumped nearly 15% from a year, and those to European Union countries and Africa, which rose 12% and over 33%, respectively.

The article concludes:

While noting that it took time for the recovering demand to feed through to actual shipments, Huang cautioned that the existing tariffs are unlikely to be reduced further, if not hiked again, and will lead to slower export growth by year-end.

Chinese Vice Premier and lead trade representative He Lifeng is expected to meet with the U.S. trade negotiation team led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in London later in the day for renewed trade talks.

The second-round of meetings come after tensions flared up again between the two sides, as they accused each other of violating the Geneva trade agreement.

Washington had blamed Beijing for slow-walking its pledge to approve the export of additional critical minerals to the U.S., while China criticized the U.S. decision to impose new restrictions on Chinese student visas and additional export restrictions on chips.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday that it would continue to review and approve applications for export of rare earths, citing growing demand for the minerals in robotics and new energy vehicle sectors.

The trade negotiations are needed by both countries. Neither America nor China has a totally winning hand. We need China’s rare earth minerals, and China needs the American markets. There is some major unrest in China among workers as manufacturing slows in reaction to declining exports to America. I also expect that there will be some grumbling among Americans who may (at least temporarily) be paying higher prices for some products.

The Trump Presidency And Your Wallet

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On Friday, Breitbart posted an article about the impact of the Trump economy on personal income.

The article reports:

Americans’ personal income in the first four months of 2025 is “almost triple the expectations,” making for a “great” start of the year, CNBC’s Rick Santelli exclaimed on the air, urging viewers to “give credit” to the Trump administration.

The longtime CNBC editor revealed the “powerful” numbers on Friday morning, sharing that personal income increased 0.8 percent in April. 

“This is a great four-month start to any year,” he said.

“When you look at income, for the first four months of the year, they’re powerful numbers — up 0.6 in January, up 0.7 in February, up 0.5 last month, up 0.8 this month. This is a great four-month start to any year.”

Santelli also lauded the fact that 0.8 percent is the “strongest” income month-over-month jump since May 2021, when it was 1.9 percent.

He went on to lament how the Trump administration is “criticized for just about anything under the sun,” despite the president’s “transparency” and positive accomplishments.

The article concludes:

“This administration is criticized for just about anything under the sun. I’ve never ever in my lifetime had glimpses into the politics of an administration in the form of transparency like this one. Why don’t we… give credit where credit is due?”

Part of the reason for the increase in consumer spending power is the lowering of the rate of inflation.

On Friday, The Daily Caller reported:

President Donald Trump achieved an economic victory after a prominent inflation reading dropped to its lowest reading in four years.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, one of The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measurement models, showed a decrease in inflation in April 2025 to a level not seen since March 2021, according to a Commerce Department report.

The index, which measures goods and services spending, showed an increase of $47.8 billion, or 0.2%, with major gains in housing and health care the report stated.

In April, the PCE and Core PCE, which measures without noting volatile food and energy prices, both rose by only 0.1% from the previous month, according to the report. The consumer price index also indicated a drop in inflation to a four-year low as well, with a seasonal adjusted 0.2% in April, as reported by the Daily Caller News Foundation earlier this month.

This is the economic relief Americans needed. If Congress would just pass the spending cuts recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Americans would enjoy more financial freedom.

Views On The Trump Economy Are Slowly Changing

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The Democrat rant that ‘the economic sky is falling’ seems to have fallen on deaf ears. The economy is slowly coming back after four years of inflation and slow job growth. The workforce participation rate is steady, but climbing slightly, and inflation is somewhat under control. We can all rejoice in the significant drop in gasoline prices.

On May 27th, CNBC posted the following headline:

Consumer confidence for May was much stronger than expected on optimism for trade deals

I love how when a Republican is in the White House, good news is always unexpected.

The article reports:

Consumer optimism got a much-needed boost in May on hopes for trade pace between the U.S. and China, according to a survey Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index leaped to 98.0, a 12.3-point increase from April and much better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 86.0.

Much of the positive sentiment, according to board officials, came from developments in the U.S.-China trade impasse, most notably President Donald Trump’s halting of the most severe tariffs on May 12.

“The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,” said Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board’s senior economist for global indicators.

May’s rebound followed five straight months of declines. Consumers and investors had grown sour on economic prospects amid the intensifying trade war that Trump has launched against U.S. global trading partners, with China a particular target.

I think all of us consumers feel optimistic when we don’t have to mortgage our house to buy a steak or fill up our gas tank.

The article concludes:

The present situation index increased to 135.9, up 4.8 points, and the expectations index posted a major surge to 72.8, a 17.4 point gain. Investors also showed more optimism, with 44% now expecting stocks to be higher over the next 12 months, up 6.4 percentage points from April.

Views on the labor market also improved, with 19.2% of respondents expecting more jobs to be available in the next six months, compared to 13.9% in April. At the same time, 26.6% expect fewer jobs, down from 32.4%.

Survey officials said sentiment improved across age, income and political affiliation, though noting that the “strongest improvements” came from Republicans.

Let’s hope Congress can pass laws that keep this going.

Good News About The American Economy

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On Wednesday, CNBC reported that retail sales were up during the month of March.

The article reports:

Points
  • The advanced estimate of retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% on the month, better than the 1.2% Dow Jones estimate and higher than the 0.2% increase in February.
  • Excluding autos, the numbers also were stronger than expected, with sales up 0.5% compared with the 0.3% forecast.

Consumer spending was stronger than expected in March as demand remained high despite declining sentiment, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The advanced estimate of retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% on the month, better than the 1.2% Dow Jones estimate and higher than the 0.2% increase in February. The year-over-year rise was 4.6%, according to numbers adjusted for seasonality but not prices, while the monthly increase was the biggest since January 2023.

Excluding autos, the numbers also were stronger than expected, with sales up 0.5% compared with the 0.3% forecast. Economists expected the auto sales number to jump as buyers tried to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs.

Motor vehicle and parts dealers reported a surge of 5.3% in sales.

The reading points to spending holding strong despite the crosscurrents of looming tariffs and expectations that the economy is weakening.

Obviously, part of the increase is due to the fear that as the tariffs kick in, prices will increase. However, it does indicate that Americans have enough trust in the future to buy things.

The article concludes:

The retail report counters multiple recent sentiment readings that show widespread fear that Trump’s tariffs will sink the economy into recession and spike prices. Last week, the closely watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey posted its second-lowest reading ever and expectations for one-year inflation were the highest since 1981.

Aside from the big move in auto-related sales, sporting goods, hobby and music stores saw a 2.4% increase, while building material and garden stores rose 3.3%. Food service and drinking places were up 1.8%, while gasoline stations reported a 2.5% decline as prices fell during the month.

As gas prices go down, consumers have more money to spend. That also may be part of the increase in retail sales.

Every Little Bit Helps

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On Wednesday, CNBC reported that the inflation rate went down in February.

The article reports:

  • The consumer price index for both all-items and core increased 0.2% in February, slightly below expectations.
  • On an annual basis, headline inflation was at 2.8%, while core was at 3.1%. Both also were 0.1 percentage point below the Wall Street consensus and the previous month’s levels.
  • The report provided some relief as consumers and businesses worry about the looming impact tariffs might have on inflation

The article concludes:

“The February CPI (Consumer Price Index) release showed further signs of progress on underlying inflation, with the pace of price increases moderating after January’s strong release,” said Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “While the Fed is still likely to remain on hold at this month’s meeting, the combination of easing inflationary pressures and rising downside risks to growth suggest that the Fed is moving closer to continuing its easing cycle.”

The Fed meets next week and is widely expected to hold its key borrowing rate in a target range between 4.25%-4.5%.

Economic growth is trending negative in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of incoming data. The measure has pegged Q1 growth at a 2.4% decline, which would be the first negative growth quarter in three years.

I would like to remind everyone that even though President Trump has been ‘flooding the zone,’ we are only less than two months into the Trump presidency. Gas prices are going down and egg prices are going down. Both of those are good things. As far other economic new is concerned, I don’t necessarily believe the initial figures when they come out. Remember the revisions on job creation during the Biden administration. The people who told those lies may still be working for their government, and I suspect their goal is not to make President Trump look good.

The Federal Reserve has not been America’s friend for a long time. It didn’t even start out that way. If you read The Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin, you will find out that the true purpose of the Federal Reserve was to concentrate America’s wealth among the New York City banks. They should lower interest rates slightly, but I doubt they will.

It Doesn’t Pay To Lie To People Who Know The Truth

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On Tuesday, Townhall posted an article about a recent appearance on CNBC by Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. It did not go according to the Secretary’s plan.

The article reports:

Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo needs to stop going on CNBC. It might be time for anyone in the Biden-Harris orbit to drop going on a network that reports on the economy because they know the talking points, the spin for this shoddy economy left to us by this administration. Raimondo tried to sell the Democratic Party line on it, but Squawk Box co-host Joe Kernen wouldn’t allow this propaganda to go unchallenged.

He torched Raimondo, adding that there was no recession under Donald Trump, wages were up, the stock market was booming, and the tariff policy he pushed was continued under Biden. Raimondo was trying to paint a picture of economic chaos, only for Kernen to say that everything is in shambles and wages are down under Biden. There’s also an open border and crime crisis engulfing the nation.

These are facts. They are inconvenient to some Americans, but they are facts.

The article notes:

All Raimondo could say was that’s not true, without citing any facts to push against the reality that Biden’s America is one heaping lawless wasteland with no economic activity. The stock market performance right now isn’t sustainable, with everyone and their mother warning that a reset is coming. The unemployment that Democrats like to attach to Trump was over the hysterics brought about by COVID.

Also, no one in the media wants to ask Raimondo and others what happened to the one million jobs never created in 2023. The revised numbers wiped out that figure, discovering they were never created. It’s another damning economic development that Raimondo seemed unfamiliar with, so what does she do all day?

If voters consider the facts and vote for President Trump, we can regain what we have lost under President Biden.

Follow The Money

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On Friday, CNBC reported that the U.S. government has decided not to pursue further charges against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

The article reports:

  • Prosecutors have decided against pursuing a second trial against disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.
  • In a note to Judge Lewis Kaplan on Friday, the U.S. government said that much of the evidence that would have been presented had already been submitted during the first trial.
  • In November, following a month’s worth of testimony from nearly 20 witnesses, a jury found the former FTX chief executive guilty of all seven criminal counts against him.

The article notes:

The second trial, which had been slated to start in March, addressed an additional set of criminal counts, including conspiracy to bribe foreign officials, conspiracy to commit bank fraud, conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business and substantive securities fraud and commodities fraud. 

Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, wrote in the letter to the Court that “a second trial would not affect the United States Sentencing Guidelines range for the defendant, because the Court can already consider all of this conduct as relevant conduct when sentencing him for the counts that he was found guilty of at the initial trial.”

I suppose it is just an incredible coincidence that after Sam Bankman-Fried donated $100 million in stolen customer funds to US politicians, the US Government announced they’re dropping six charges against SBF and will not prosecute him for a political campaign finance violation. Any guesses on what the second trial would reveal about campaign finance violations and the people who received funds illegally?

 

It’s Really All A Matter Of Perspective

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CNBC has posted its list of the ten best states in America to live in and its list of the ten worst states in America to live in. When you look at the lists that CNBC has compiled and compare them to how Americans are ‘voting with their feet,’ you really wonder what the people who put together the lists were thinking.

This is the list of the 10 best states to live and work in according to CNBC:

10. Connecticut

8. (tie) Massachusetts

8. (tie) Colorado

7. Washington

6. Oregon

5. Hawaii

4. Minnesota

3. New Jersey

2. Maine

1. Vermont

These are the ten worst states to live and work in according to CNBC:

10. Florida

9. Arkansas

8. Tennessee

7. Indiana

6. Missouri

4. (tie) Alabama

4. (tie) South Carolina

3. Louisiana

2. Oklahoma

1. Texas

Please note that the only state in the ‘best’ places to live that has a Republican governor is Vermont, where Phil Scott is the Governor. The rest are Democrats. Based on the states chosen as ‘best’, I don’t believe there was much consideration given to the cost of living in the ‘best’ states.

Also note that in the ten ‘worst’ states, the only one with a Democrat governor is Louisiana, where John Bel Edwards is Governor. The rest are Republicans.

It is interesting to compare the CNBC list to the relocation habits of Americans. Below is a map posted at world population review illustrating states that have gained population and states that have lost population.

Believe the mainstream media at your own risk!