Tag Archives: CNBC

The Trump Economy

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The Democrat Congress that takes office in January will probably end the Trump policies that have resulted in the economic growth we saw in the third quarter and are seeing now. Ending the tariffs (a Democrat priority) will limit the supply of money being invested in America and will also slow the return of manufacturing to America. Green energy policies will increase the cost of fuel. Over-regulation will slow down business growth. Ending the tax cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill will slow economic growth. Increasing taxes on businesses will also slow economic growth. Hopefully, President Trump can veto all of these moves. Meanwhile, the Trump economy is doing very well.

Meanwhile, on Friday, CNBC reported the following:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, well above the Wall Street forecast for 59,000, while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%.
  • Worker pay rose by 0.4% for a 3.1% annual increase.
  • Job gains came in professional and business services, healthcare and manufacturing.

The article notes:

Payroll gains also came in better than forecast. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and 3.1% annually, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 2.9%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours.

“Today’s jobs report is a strong rebuttal to fears that the economy is heading into a meaningful slowdown,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “Payrolls growth surprised firmly to the upside, unemployment fell back to 4.1%, and job creation remains broad-based, pointing to an economy that is still absorbing labor comfortably rather than one beginning to buckle under tighter financial conditions.”

The breadth of job growth also was strong, contrary to a trend in which healthcare had accounted for the bulk of gains.

Professional and business services saw an increase of 70,000 to lead all sectors, while healthcare was next at 42,000. Other areas seeing notable growth included transportation and warehousing (25,000) and manufacturing (19,000).

The article noted:

The share of workers either looking for a job or already working as a share of the workforce, known as the labor force participation rate, edged higher to 61.9%. The labor force had been shrinking, the result of demographic changes and immigration reductions, but expanded by 421,000 in October.

We are moving in the right direction. Hopefully, the Democrat Congress will not mess this up.

Economic Growth Under President Trump

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On Thursday, CNBC posted an article about America’s economic growth during the third quarter of 2026.

The article reports:

  • The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the third quarter, faster than expected.
  • Inflation continued to run above the Fed’s 2% target in September, with a headline rate of 3.6% and core at 3.1%, according to the central bank’s preferred gauge.
  • Consumer spending was slightly below forecasts, though still up 0.5%. Personal income increased just 0.2%.

Note that consumer spending and personal income both increased. Our current rate of inflation has a lot to do with the Iran war and will drop as soon as that war is over. Just as a point of reference, the last time inflation was 2% was late 2021.

The article notes:

Excluding food and energy, the core PCE posted respective readings of 0.3% and 3.1%, in line with the consensus. While the Fed follows both measures closely, officials generally see the core reading as more indicative of longer-term inflation trends.

While inflation continued to run ahead of the Fed’s 2% target, the Commerce Department also reported that gross domestic product was strong in the third quarter.

GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 3.4%, better than the 3.1% estimate and well ahead of the 2.2% in the second quarter.

Also, in September consumer spending proved resilient, climbing 0.5%, a bit below the forecast for a 0.6% gain, while personal income rose 0.2%, compared with the estimate for 0.3%.

The reports come the day after the Fed voted to hold its benchmark interest rate in a range between 3.75%-4%. Despite elevated inflation readings, central bank officials insist they can afford to evaluate incoming data before deciding on their next move.

The article concludes:

Real sales to private domestic purchasers, a proxy that Fed officials use for underlying demand, rose 4.9%, compared with a 4.6% increase in the second quarter.

There was some good inflation news for the period: On a quarterly basis, PCE prices rose 2.1% on the headline number and 2.5% for core, down respectively from 5% and 3.3% in the second quarter.

September’s price increases were driven largely by a surge in energy costs that economists fear could be spreading to other parts of the economy. Gasoline and other energy goods saw a 9.2% rise for the month while energy goods and services broadly jumped 5.4%.

At the same time, services prices excluding energy and housing rose 0.4%, and housing costs increased 0.3%.

Holding Steady On Interest Rates

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On Wednesday, CNBC posted an article about the Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates at this time.

The article reports:

The Federal Reserve held steady on rates at the conclusion of its October meeting, maintaining its target range of 3.75% to 4%.

Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissented from the decision: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were in favor of raising rates by a quarter percentage point.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh announced that the central bank will reduce the number of rate-setting meetings starting in 2027, noting that while eight meetings per year is “the right number” for the FOMC, one of them will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy starting in 2027. The remainder will be policy-setting meetings.

In 2028, the Fed will plan to host two meetings focused on strategy discussions and the remaining six will be centered on policy setting, Warsh said.

Unfortunately, like a lot of other things, the Federal Reserve has been politicized in recent years. Although inflation is not where the Federal Reserve would like it to be, the current rate of inflation has a lot to do with the price of gasoline and the war in Iran, which should end shortly one way or another. Raising rates right now would slow down economic growth, something that is not needed at this time.

The economic numbers for the past two years show a slow recovery from the economic mess that was the Biden administration. Unfortunately, prices never seem to go down after inflation slows, but the Trump administration has significantly slowed the rate of inflation. Many economic experts expect the next year to have strong economic growth. Raising interest rates now might negatively impact that growth. I firmly believe that there are still people in our government who would sacrifice the good of the country rather than see a successful Trump Presidency.

A Step Toward Peace?

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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has been excluded from a suggested peace conference between Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

On Sunday, CNBC reported:

  • The Wall Street Journal reported Vladimir Putin had reportedly suggested a summit between himself, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping for a deal to end the Ukraine war.
  • The summit is not confirmed, but if it takes place will not involve Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
  • The report comes amid mounting tensions between Ukraine and the U.S., its largest military backer.

At some point we need to acknowledge that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not want the war to end and that the American left does not want the war to end. According to AI, as of March 31, 2026, the U.S. Congress has made available $195 billion in total spending related to the war in Ukraine, according to the Council on Foreign Relations and the U.S. Special Inspector General for Operation Atlantic Resolve. [1, 2] There has never been an auditing of that spending. It is extremely possible that a good portion of that money has found its way into American political campaign coffers and another portion has gone into Zelenskyy’s pockets. The recent bombing of the Russian refineries was an indication that Zelenskyy was trying to influence the midterm elections in America to weaken President Trump. Zelenskyy is terrified that the money spigot is going to be turned off.

The article at CNBC concludes:

The Telegraph reported on Friday that Musk “approached Donald Trump with the idea of slowing down Starlink in Ukraine,” and both had a hand in imposing the restrictions.

Additionally, Zelenskyy told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that intelligence sharing between the two countries had been interrupted, but later “de-blocked.”

Rubio on Monday denied that Washington had suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, contradicting Zelenskyy’s claim that the flow of information had been briefly interrupted, Reuters reported.

Speaking to reporters in Uzbekistan, Rubio insisted there had been no pause and said Zelenskyy should instead focus on ending the war, marking another public disagreement between Washington and Kyiv amid deteriorating relations.

On Sunday, The Conservative Treehouse noted:

Again, there are multiple dynamics unfolding inside this story. However, as to the central component of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy complaining about hampered access to Starlink and/or Starshield, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sets the record straight.

Ukraine has never had access to the U.S. military version of Starshield; providing that level of guidance access would be akin to the United States being in direct conflict with Russia using a proprietary U.S. military system. This is not our circus and not our war; there is no need for U.S. military conflict with Russia.

Remember the history. Zelenskyy was installed by the deep state. His words cannot be trusted.

The Latest Economic Numbers

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On Wednesday, CNBC posted the inflation numbers for September.

They report:

  • The consumer price index showed annual inflation of 3.7% in September after rising 0.6% for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
  • The Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, posted an annual reading of 2.6% after climbing 0.3%.
  • Energy prices were a major factor again as gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for half the increase in the index.
  • However, price pressures were broad-based, with gains in shelter, vehicle costs and apparel.

For the sake of comparison, a friend posted the following Inflation Chart on Facebook:

Part of the problem with inflation is that it is cumulative. Once prices go up, they somehow never go down. To give you an example, my husband and I paid about $19,000 for our first house in 1969. According to AI, $19,000 in 1969 equals $173,437.35 in 2026. According to Zillow, that house is now worth $436,300, putting it out of reach for many families. 

The article at CNBC concludes:

The type of supply shocks that have driven the energy surge generally are considered temporary, and policymakers often will look through them when considering where to set rates. However, Fed officials fear that the longer the war drags on, the higher the likelihood that the spike will make its way through the broader economy and become embedded in consumer and business expectations.

Prices also have faced pressure from President Donald Trump’s tariffs as well as demand for goods associated with the artificial intelligence build-out.

In recent days, a number of key policymakers have expressed the belief that the Fed doesn’t need to rush to implement another hike. However, most say they expect another increase this year. Market pricing implies the Fed could raise rates at least twice more in 2027.

Fed officials follow the CPI and a host of other metrics but use the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index as their primary forecast and policymaking metric. The PCE numbers for September won’t be released until later this month.

A number of economists are opposed to President Trump’s tariffs. However, they tend to overlook the fact that manufacturing is coming back to America as a result of those tariffs. I expect that the benefits of the tariffs will not be instant, but will make themselves known in the next year or two. Hopefully there are enough Americans who understand that to keep the tariffs in place.

Keeping Elections Secure

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On Friday, CNBC posted an article about a Supreme Court decision that will help ensure election integrity.

The article reports:

The justices granted the Justice Department’s request to block a judge’s order that had stopped state officials from using Social Security numbers and other information to conduct sweeping checks of the citizenship status of registered voters against federal records.

The court has a 6-3 conservative majority. Its three liberal justices dissented from Friday’s order.

The majority said the plaintiffs’ arguments likely fail because federal law expressly authorizes the Department of Homeland Security to request and receive information relating to citizenship and immigration status from other agencies, including the Social Security Administration.

The administration’s data-sharing arrangement is one in a series of actions boosting the federal government’s involvement in voting ahead of November’s midterm elections in which Trump’s fellow Republicans seek to maintain control of Congress. The U.S. Constitution gives individual states the primary authority to run and administer elections.

The Department of Homeland Security last year redesigned a federal database known as the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements, ​or SAVE, used to verify a person’s citizenship and immigration status. The revamp allowed users to search many records at a time and to conduct searches using individuals’ Social Security numbers.

The argument against using the system is that it is an invasion of privacy and that there has not been rampant fraud in our elections. The article claims that charges of massive voter fraud in 2020 are unfounded. I think the Department of Justice might disagree with that statement.

The article concludes:

In a Supreme Court filing, Justice Department lawyers called the ​judge’s order “indefensible,” arguing that it “threatens the integrity” of the midterm elections.

Texas, which intervened in the case in support of the administration, has disputed claims that the system is unreliable.

Due to separate litigation in Florida, the Trump administration has been able to continue using its modified SAVE system in the Republican-led states of Florida, Iowa, Indiana and Ohio.

We desperately need to protect election integrity.

The Children Are Behaving Badly And Hoping We Have Short Memories

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CNBC is reporting today:

  • The White House television press pool that covers events by President Donald Trump on a rotating basis will stop covering those events because of the White House’s ban of CNN from acting as a member of that pool, CNN reported.
  • CNN was barred from covering Trump as the designated TV pooler when the president is visiting New York for the United Nations General Assembly.
  • In addition to CNN, the other members of the White House TV pool are NBC, ABC, CBS and Fox.

They are simply outraged. But let’s look at a little bit of history.

On Sunday, The American Spectator posted an article about banning CNN.

The article points out:

It is, however, unreasonable to ask former President Barack Obama to keep his mouth shut on this issue. On Saturday, he appeared on C-SPAN to offer his typically hypocritical take on Trump’s “press ban,” as the network disingenuously described it: “I’m trying to think what would have happened if I had said, you know what, Fox News, you’re out of here! It’s unimaginable!” Actually, it’s not necessary to imagine what would have happened—Zip. As Piers Morgan points out, “Obama did ban Fox, and waged almost constant war against press freedom.” Joe Concha elaborates, “Team Obama rejected more FOIA requests than anyone in history, spied on James Rosen, secretly seized AP phone records and booted several  news outlets off of his plane.”

But former President Autopen holds the record for the most extensive White House press purge. As Fox News reported in August of 2023, “At least 442 reporters have lost their credentials since the White House press office changed its rules for journalists to be eligible for permanent passes, according to reports.” The new eligibility requirements were clearly meant to target independent journalists. In order to qualify for a White House pass, reporters had to prove “Full-time employment with an organization whose principal business is  news dissemination.” This travesty produced no condemnation from the White House Correspondents Association (WHCA). Trump’s action, however, was vociferously denounced by WHCA President Jacqui Heinrich:

The article at The American Spectator concludes:

As for the claim that the Trump administration has violated the First Amendment, perhaps these “journalists” should take the time to read it. It doesn’t give CNN, MS NOW or Politico any claim to a seat in the White House briefing room.

According to AI, 56 percent of Americans watch the mainstream media. That’s probably still too many, but the distrust of the media is at an all-time high because of their false reporting. The two most honest sources of news right now are Newsmax and One America News. Unfortunately, Fox News has gone over to the dark side.

Ignoring The Root Problem

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According to AI, tax revenues for 2026 are expected to be $5.6 trillion, which is a 6.9% increase from 2025. That should make it obvious that our deficit problem is not due to a lack of revenue, but an overabundance of spending. The basic root of the problem is that those in Washington had decided that the tax revenue is their money and does not belong to the taxpayers. That is one of many reasons they have been so reluctant to find corruption or hold people accountable for it.

On Monday, CNBC posted an article about the looming crisis in America that will be caused by our massive national debt.

The article reports:

  • The U.S. could breach the debt ceiling at some point in 2027. Fixing it could be hard.
  • If Democrats capture one or both chambers of Congress in November’s midterm election, it would open the door to a standoff as the party tries to extract policy wins from Republican President Donald Trump in exchange for averting a bumpy ride over the fiscal cliff.
  • If Democrats win in November, Republican hopes to remedy the issue while they control Congress could also be in trouble, as some in the GOP are already disavowing raising the debt ceiling without accompanying deep spending cuts.

When President Reagan cut taxes, the deficit soared. Why? Because as tax revenues increased, which they did, the Democrats in Congress increased the spending. What we need is for Congress to cut their spending, end the fraud in government programs, use some of the increased revenue to pay down our debt, and refund the taxpayers some of their own money.

The article notes:

Even with the potential leverage, however, some Democrats are taking a cautionary tone on the debt ceiling. Past debt ceiling standoffs, though not ending in default, have harmed the U.S.′ credit standing. Fitch downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+ after the last standoff, saying “repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management.”

Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, said Democrats “always want to consider responsible financing.”

“But I think that we need to remember that the tax cut in 2017 and the tax cut last year, it’s contributing mightily to this problem,” Neal said.

Neal also added the caveat that “playing with this thing is dangerous.”

“We’d have to have an open conversation about it,” Neal said when asked what Democrats would want in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. “I know we don’t want debt default.”

That is spin. The tax cuts have increased revenue–not decreased it.

Playing Cards You Don’t Have

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Iran is not in a good place right now. It is suffering economically under a blockade, its supposed leader has not been seen for months, inflation is out of control, and it has alienated some of its past allies by attacking them. Things are not going well for the current Iranian regime. That does not mean, however, that the current regime is in danger of being replaced. Iran’s best hope is to somehow make a deal to end the blockade and allow money to flow back into the country. Unfortunately, they have very little leverage.

On Thursday, CNBC posted an article about Iran’s latest diplomatic move.

The article reports:

  • Iran urged countries to reject U.S. sanctions as Tehran sets conditions for the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said renewed talks with Washington remain possible if U.S. pressure eases.
  • Oil prices dipped on Friday as market participants closely monitored crude flows through Hormuz.

…Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Friday called on “all countries” not to implement U.S. sanctions against Tehran, warning that doing so would represent “complicity” in imposing the “illegal will” of the United States.

The comments were laid out in a two-page letter published via Telegram, as the country set its conditions for reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and touted the prospect of a return to diplomatic negotiations.

The White House announced an “economic D-Day” campaign against Tehran earlier in the week, threatening countries that do business with the Islamic Republic and shifting its focus from military action to economic pressure after six months of war.

U.S. President Donald Trump made clear on Thursday that Washington is not talking with Iran, telling reporters in the Oval Office: “We ‌don’t want to speak to them. We’re not looking to meet or anything.”

There are conflicting reports as to whether or not the Strait of Hormuz is actually open. However, as I write this on Friday, the price of oil is dropping slightly, generally holding steady at about $82 a barrel. Ideally for the American economy, the price of oil should be between $50 and $60 a barrel.

The Trump Economy

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On Thursday, CNBC posted an article about the inflation numbers for July.

The article reports:

  • The producer price index was flat in July compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase. Core PPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast.
  • PPI measures wholesale inflation and was the latest metric to show easing price pressures after months of gains.

The article notes:

Wholesale costs for goods and services were flat in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday in the latest positive sign for inflation.

The producer price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged for the month, below the 0.2% Dow Jones consensus estimate and after falling 0.1% in June. The June figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 0.3%.

Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2%, against the forecast for a 0.3% gain. The core PPI excluding trade services increased 0.4%.

On an annual basis, the headline PPI increased 4.7% for the all-items index and 4.2% for core, according to unadjusted figures.

The report follows several other indicators telling a similar story – that after a ramp-up in inflation earlier this year fueled by the Iran war and President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the rate of price increases is beginning to ease.

Stock market futures were positive after the report while Treasury yields were lower. Traders further reduced the odds for a September rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

The article concludes:

On Wednesday, the BLS reported that the consumer price index rose just 0.1% in July as falling energy prices during the month helped lower price pressures. However, the headline annual inflation rate of 3.4% was still well above the Fed’s goal.

Core consumer inflation was considerably tamer, posting a 0.2% monthly gain and 2.5% annual rate that put the level back to where it was prior to the start of the war.

Market expectations have switched in recent days, with traders now pricing in a rate hike in October or December after putting heavy odds that the Federal Open Market Committee would move at its next meeting on Sept. 15-16.

In other economic news Thursday, initial jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended Aug. 8, up 9,000 from the prior period and above the 204,000 estimate.

We need to remember that Rome was not built in a day. Inflation is gradually coming down, trade deficits are down, manufacturing jobs are up, and industries are moving back to America. These are all positive things that are the result of President Trump’s economic policies. If the Democrats are successful in the mid-term elections, most of these good things will disappear.

How Is The Economy Doing?

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Obviously, the increase in gasoline prices because of the war in Iran is going to impact inflation, but that should be a temporary increase. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is doing a good job of keeping inflation under control.

On Wednesday, CNBC reported:

  • The consumer price index rose 2.4% in February from a year earlier, unchanged from January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • That’s still slightly above policymakers’ long-term inflation target, economists said.
  • War in Iran complicates the picture. The conflict has caused oil prices to soar since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, raising prices for gasoline and other types of fuel.

The article at CNBC includes the following charts:

The article concludes:

Overall the CPI inflation also looks better on paper than in reality due to a quirk in the data from the government shutdown in the fall.

The record-long shutdown, which ran from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, prevented federal statisticians from collecting typical inflation data in October. Without that data, the BLS assumed that no price increases had taken place during the month for most categories of goods and services.

Taking that measurement quirk into account, the CPI inflation is likely around 2.7%, about 0.3 percentage point higher than reported Wednesday, said Zandi of Moody’s.

The Latest Economic Numbers

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On Wednesday, CNBC posted an article about the January Jobs Report.

The article reports:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 for January, above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 55,000.
  • The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%. A more encompassing measure slipped to 8%, down 0.4 percentage point from December.
  • As has often been the case for the U.S. labor market, health care led job gains in December, adding 82,000 positions. Social assistance also rose, up 42,000, while construction added 33,000.
  • The BLS also released final benchmark revisions for the year prior to March 2025. Those numbers saw the initial counts revised lower by a total 898,000, about in line with expectations.

The Workforce Participation Rate eased up slightly in January to 62.5.

The article at CNBC concludes:

However, the December numbers provide some reason for optimism.

While the establishment survey showed more jobs than expected, the household survey was even stronger. Used to calculate the unemployment rate, the survey showed a gain of 528,000 workers for the month as the labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.5%.

The data likely solidifies the Federal Reserve staying on hold with interest rates.

Futures traders raised bets that the Fed would hold the line at its March meeting, though the expectation is still titled toward a cut in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

PJ Media also posted an article on the Jobs Report on Wednesday, but had a slightly different angle.

PJ Media notes:

The growth is focused on the private sector, which is good news because it is the private sector that drives economic growth. In fact, federal employment is at its lowest level as a share of the workforce since 1966. While economists expected private payrolls to grow by 70,000, the actual number is 172,000 for January. Government payrolls lost 42,000 jobs at both the state and federal levels combined.

…The economy added 5,000 manufacturing jobs, which is the opposite of economists’ prediction that it would lose 5,000 jobs, according to Fox Business. Job numbers for November and December were revised down, however, for a loss of about 17,000 jobs from the original statistics over those two months.

The DOL also announced on Feb. 10, “For the first time since 1999, U.S. steel production has surpassed Japan’s.” This is very important. For too long, we have been shipping our manufacturing overseas, especially to hostile nations like Communist China, leaving ourselves dependent on the whims of foreign leaders. Boosting American manufacturing is a necessary move for our independence and national security.

We are not yet where we need to be, but we are heading in the right direction.

More Good Economic News

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On Thursday, CNBC posted an article about the October trade deficit.

The article reports:

  • The U.S. trade deficit six months into President Donald Trump’s tariffs tumbled to its lowest level since mid-2009, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
  • The total was the lowest since the second quarter of 2009 as the U.S. was just coming out of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.

The U.S. trade deficit six months into President Donald Trump’s tariffs tumbled to its lowest level since mid-2009, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

With exports rising and imports falling, the trade shortfall was just $29.4 billion for October, down 39% from the prior month. Exports increased 2.6% while imports slipped 3.2%.

The total was the lowest since the second quarter of 2009 as the U.S. was just coming out of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.

The numbers reflect the trade activity since Trump levied his “liberation day” tariffs in April 2025. Economists and policymakers worried that the levies would work against the U.S. by inviting retaliation and slowing the movement of goods and services around the world. However, Trump has backed off many of the most severe tariff threats he made, and the data shows a strong market for U.S. products.

To be sure, the year-to-date deficit still was 7.7% higher than the same period in 2024.

The article concludes:

“The latest figures suggest firms are successfully doing more with less labor, giving more credence to a jobless expansion,” said Matthew Martin, senior economist at Oxford Economics. “Productivity will be key to determining the economy’s speed limit and inflationary dynamics. If productivity growth continues to accelerate due to tax cuts, deregulation, and technological advancements, including AI, economic growth can pick up without causing unwanted inflation.”

Though hiring has been weak, the Labor Department reported Thursday that layoffs are holding low.

Initial unemployment claims for the week ended Jan. 3 totaled 208,000, pushing the four-week moving average to its lowest since April 27, 2024.

President Trump is a businessman. When our Founding Fathers formed our government, they did not want career politicians. As we have seen, career politicians talk about problems and corruption, but they don’t seem to do anything about them.

The Trump Economy

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On Tuesday, CNBC posted an article reporting that the U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in third quarter, much more than expected (the mainstream media always has low expectations during a Republican administration).

The article reports:

The U.S. economy grew at a much greater-than-expected pace in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer spending, a delayed report released Tuesday showed.

U.S. gross domestic product, a sum of all goods and services produced in the sprawling U.S. economy, expanded by 4.3% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its initial reading of third-quarter growth. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a gain of 3.2%.

Consumer spending expanded by 3.5% in the third quarter after rising 2.5% in the second quarter.

Increases in exports and government spending also boosted growth, while a smaller dip in private fixed investment helped as well.

The report originally had been scheduled for release on Oct. 30 but was delayed by the government shutdown. This release also replaces a second estimate that was set to drop on Nov. 26. The department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis will release one final estimate later.

A measure of growth called real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3% in the quarter, up 0.1 percentage point from the prior period. Federal Reserve policymakers watch the data point closely for signs of consumer demand.

When gas at the pump is $1 less a gallon or more, people have more spending money and don’t feel the pressure of inflation quite as much. If you put 15 gallons of gas in your car every week, you have saved $60 a month without doing anything. The lower price also encourages people to travel and spend a little more freely than they otherwise might. Unfortunately, the price of diesel fuel has remained high.

About The November Jobs Report

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On Tuesday, CNBC reported that delayed jobs numbers show payrolls rose by 64,000 in November after falling by 105,000 in October. That’s good news, but there is even better news in the details of the report.

A Press Release from U.S. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer states:

“November’s jobs report shows our economy continues to gain momentum despite the economic mess President Trump inherited from the Biden administration and the reckless Democrat shutdown. With 64,000 jobs added in November, more and more Americans are coming off the sidelines and working in the private sector. Investment has been booming thanks to the President’s America First policies, leading to strong nonresidential construction growth.

“Importantly, the growth we are seeing is concentrated in the private sector and among native-born Americans. Federal employment has retreated to the lowest level in over a decade, completely reversing the previous administration’s federal hiring frenzy.

“The Trump Administration remains laser-focused on making life more affordable for all Americans. Average private sector weekly earnings are on track to rise 4.2 percent during the President’s first year in office, providing working families with more purchasing power as wages outpace inflation. We will continue to double down on our efforts to put American Workers First by building a Golden Age of economic prosperity.”

We have no workforce participation rate figures from October because of the government shutdown. In September the rate was 62.4; in November it was 62.5. That is a number that changes very slowly, but it is moving in the right direction. It was 62.4 in February, President Trump’s first full month in office.

One thing to notice in this press release and in the President’s speech on Wednesday night is the statement about the economic mess created by the Biden administration. Many Americans suffered under Biden economics. Because of the economic policies of President Trump, many Americans are now climbing out of the hole they were in because of the economic policies of the Biden administration. We need to send businessmen to Washington–not politicians.

Sunlight Is The Best Disinfectant

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On Tuesday, CNBC reported that a New York federal judge ordered the unsealing of grand jury materials related to the criminal prosecution of Ghislaine Maxwell.

The article reports:

A New York federal judge on Tuesday ordered the unsealing of grand jury materials and other documents related to the prosecution of Ghislaine Maxwell, the British socialite convicted in 2021 of procuring underage girls to be sexually abused by Jeffrey Epstein.

Judge Paul Engelmayer’s order came at the request of the Department of Justice, which cited the Epstein Files Transparency Act that Congress passed last month.

The act mandates that the DOJ disclose investigative material about Epstein, a former friend of President Donald Trump who killed himself in jail in August 2019, weeks after being arrested on federal child sex trafficking charges.

Maxwell is serving a 20-year prison term for her conviction.

Grand jury materials are normally permanently sealed by law.

Because of that, Engelmayer denied the DOJ’s initial request over the summer to unseal grand jury materials in Maxwell’s case.

In his order on Tuesday, the judge noted that the Epstein files “Act does not explicitly refer to grand jury materials.”

But, Englemayer added, “The Court nonetheless holds — again in agreement with DOJ — that the Act textually covers the grand jury materials in this case.”

The article concludes:

Although he granted the DOJ’s request to unseal the materials, the judge slapped prosecutors for again not giving notice to Maxwell’s and Epstein’s victims before asking that the materials be made public.

“In its two rounds of applications to this Court to disclose records, DOJ, although paying lip service to Maxwell’s and Epstein’s victims, has not treated them with the solicitude they deserve,” Engelmayer wrote.

“In applying on November 24, 2025 for leave to release records pursuant to the Act, DOJ again acted without notice to Maxwell’s and Epstein’s victims,” the judge wrote.

“The Court … were compelled again to direct DOJ forthwith to notify these victims of its latest motion, and to set a deadline for victims’ submissions.

I really don’t care how much of this is made public–I just want to see the people involved in the illegal actions go to jail.

The September Jobs Report Is Out

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The September jobs report was delayed because of the government shutdown. It is now out.

CNBC reported on November 20:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision, according to a long-delayed report Thursday from the BLS.
  • The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, the highest it’s been since October 2021. A broader measure edged lower to 8%.
  • Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
  • The report ends a data drought on the labor market that began in early September and continued through the record 44-day government shutdown.

The workforce participation rate eased up slightly to 62.4. Notice also that average hourly earnings increased slightly for the month and 3.8 per for the year. People also have more spending money due to the lower cost of gasoline.

The article notes:

The total level of those employed rose by 251,000 while the labor force increased by 470,000 to a fresh record of 171.2 million. The participation rate, which measures the share of the working-age population either working or seeking employment, edged higher to 62.4, the highest since May.

The rolls of full-time employment swelled by 673,000 while part-times fell by 573,000.

The article concludes:

The lack of comprehensive indicators has presented a challenge for Fed officials, who cut their benchmark interest rate in both September and October but face a tougher decision in December. Officials at the October meeting noted the difficulty in navigating policy without the usual array of economic metrics to rely on, and there was a significant inclination to forgo a December cut, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

With September’s payrolls count released, the BLS is preparing the first influx of other data in coming months. The bureau on Wednesday announced it will release jobs data for October and November simultaneously on Dec. 16. October’s numbers will not include the customary unemployment rate calculation as that comes from a survey of households that will not be able to be completed because of the shutdown.

It will be interesting to see the October and November numbers. Despite what the mainstream media is telling us, the economy seems to be turning around–jobs are increasing and the rate of inflation is slowing going down.

What Happens Next

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The Senate has voted to end the government shutdown. CNBC posted an article on Monday (updated Tuesday) explaining what happens next.

The article reports:

  • The Senate passed a bill to end the U.S. government shutdown.
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson called for House members to travel to Washington, D.C., so that they can vote as soon as possible on the deal.
  • To end the shutdown, the House needs to pass the Senate bill, and then President Donald Trump must sign it into law.

There are some grumblings among more liberal Democrats that they will try to stop the bill in the House, but I don’t think they will succeed.

The article notes:

House members were told that votes on the deal could begin by 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Before the Senate vote, Johnson refused to commit to the deal’s key guarantee to Democrats: that Congress will hold a separate vote in December on potentially extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. That vote would be on a bill of the Democrats’ choosing, according to the Senate agreement.

“I’m not committing to it or not committing to it,” Johnson, R-La., said Monday on CNN.

Those subsidies, which are due to expire at the end of December, help reduce the cost of individual health insurance plans for more than 20 million Americans.

What the article fails to mention is that the subsidies go to the insurance companies rather than to the people buying the insurance. The insurance companies have no incentive to lower premiums or cut costs. The impact of the subsidies going to the insurance companies on the price of insurance is similar to what happened to college tuition when the government got involved in the student loan program. When you take away incentive to lower prices, prices do not get lowered.

The article concludes:

The Senate deal would fund the government through the end of January; reverse all shutdown-related layoffs of federal employees; and guarantee that all federal workers will be paid their normal salaries during the shutdown.

The deal also includes provisions for a bipartisan budget process and prevents the White House from using continuing resolutions to fund the government.

CRs have been repeatedly used to avoid government shutdowns, but are controversial because they frequently avoid lawmakers having to make decisions about long-term funding of the government that a normal budget would resolve.

The deal would also fund, through September, the SNAP program, which helps feed 42 million Americans through food stamps.

Under a federal law passed in 2019, government employees who are furloughed during a shutdown must be paid for the time they were out of work at their standard rate of pay “at the earliest date possible, regardless of scheduled pay dates.”

These Are The Numbers

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Om Tuesday, CNBC posted an article reporting that because the government is currently shut down, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will now release a four-week average weekly change in employment with a two-week lag every Tuesday.

The article reports:

Private sector employers added an average 14,250 jobs per week over the past four weeks, according to new preliminary data being released by ADP, a turnaround from the negative September numbers.

Stepping into the void created by the government shutdown, ADP will now release a four-week average weekly change in employment with a two-week lag every Tuesday. Today’s number is the four-week average ended Oct. 11.

“ADP’s near real-time employment data, released weekly, will now provide an even clearer picture of the labor market at this critical time for the economy … providing a dynamic view of job creation and loss at an unprecedented level of weekly detail,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.

This preliminary data will be different from the better-known and closely followed National Employment Report, generally released on the Wednesday before the government’s payroll number. The NER measures the monthly change in job growth during the week that contains the 12th of the month and provides detail of job growth by sector.

I am looking forward to more accurate numbers than were previously reported by the government during the Biden administration.

Some Good News About The Economy

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On Wednesday, CNBC reported the following:

  • Gross domestic product jumped to 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
  • Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
  • While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
  • President Donald Trump responded to the GDP report with a fresh demand for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

In another article posted on Wednesday, CNBC reported:

  • Private payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 104,000 for the month, reversing a loss of 23,000 in June and topping the Dow Jones forecast for an increase of 64,000.
  • Wages rose at a 4.4% annual pace for the month, about in line with recent trends.

The first article mentioned reports:

The U.S. economy grew at a much stronger-than-expected pace in the second quarter, powered by a turnaround in the trade balance and renewed consumer strength, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Gross domestic product, a sum of goods and services activity across the sprawling U.S. economy, jumped 3% for the April through June period, according to figures adjusted for seasonality and inflation.

That topped the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% and helped reverse a decline of 0.5% for the first quarter that came largely due to a huge drop in imports, which subtract from the total, as well as weak consumer spending amid tariff concerns.

Financial markets reacted little to the report, with stock index futures mixed and Treasury yields higher.

“The word of the summer for the economy is ‘resilient,’” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The consumer is hanging in there, but still on edge until the trade deals are done.”

The second article reports:

Hiring at private companies rebounded at a stronger than expected pace in July, indicating the labor market is holding its ground, ADP reported Wednesday.

Payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 104,000 for the month, reversing a loss of 23,000 in June and topping the Dow Jones forecast from economists for an increase of 64,000. The June number was revised up from an initially reported loss of 33,000.

Though the pace of hiring is well off where it stood last year, the June total was the best since March and consistent with a slowing but still fairly vibrant jobs picture.

“Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.”

At the present time, it looks as if hiring a businessman as President was a good choice for the economy.

A Statement That Makes The Deep State Tremble

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The Federal Reserve is a misnamed sketchy operation. There is a book and a YouTube video called “The Creature From Jekyll Island” that explains the dirty tricks involved in the creation of the Federal Reserve and its true purpose. The Federal Reserve is neither federal nor a reserve. Auditing the fed is a really good idea that the fed has avoided for years.

On Monday, Hot Air posted an article quoting CNBC:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday suggested a review of the Federal Reserve that would go beyond the current controversy over building renovations and look at its overall function.

“What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful,” Bessent said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “Has the organization succeeded in its mission? If this were the [Federal Aviation Administration] and we were having this many mistakes, we would go back and look at why has this happened.”

The article also quotes Senator Rand Paul:

Dr. Rand Paul (R-KY) has reintroduced the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, famously known as “Audit the Fed” legislation to require a full audit of the Federal Reserve’s operations and increase congressional oversight of its decision-making. In conjunction with the bill’s reintroduction, Senator Paul also released the latest edition of his Waste Report, which exposed the Federal Reserve’s $600 million cost overrun on renovations to its Washington, D.C. headquarters—now projected to cost taxpayers $2.5 billion in total. The report underscores the lack of transparency and accountability at the Fed, which remains exempt from a full audit by Congress or the Government Accountability Office.

“No institution holds more power over the future of the American economy and the value of our savings than the Federal Reserve,” said Dr. Paul. “It’s long past time for Congress to stop shirking its duty and hold the Federal Reserve accountable.”

“It is Congress’ duty to hold the Fed accountable,” said Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). “For too long, the Federal Reserve has operated behind closed doors while making decisions that impact the American economy. Throughout my service in Congress, I have worked to audit the Fed, and this legislation is necessary to shine a light on the Fed’s operations and provide transparency to Congress and American taxpayers.”

The year 1913 was a horrible year for the Democratic Republic of America. That year gave us the federal income tax, the federal reserve, and the direct election of U.S. Senators. All three of those things need to go away.

Sanity Returns To The Auto Industry

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Electric cars may be a good idea if you live in a city with a temperate climate, but they are a problem if you live in a place with very cold winters or if you plan a long trip. Cold weather significantly impacts the life of the battery, and a long trip in an electric vehicle requires planning based on where the car chargers are and whether they are fast-charging or slow-charging. There may be a future for electric cars, but I believe some more tweaking of the technology is necessary. Ultimately, the free market should determine the success or failure of electric cars–not the government.

On Tuesday, Breitbart reported:

General Motors has announced plans to expand production of gas-powered vehicles and SUVs in Michigan as well as the manufacturing of pickup trucks.

The Detroit-based auto manufacturer said in a statement on Tuesday that it will “begin production of the Cadillac Escalade, as well as the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra light duty pickups at Orion Assembly in early 2027 to help meet continued strong customer demand.”

According to CNBC, the Escalade is produced in Arlington, Texas, while the Silverado and Sierra trucks are made at an assembly plant in Fort Wayne, Indiana, which will continue to produce the vehicles.

The article concludes:

While GM has seen a surge in EV sales recently, overall customer demand for EVs have not met expectations.

“For years, the automotive industry has been in a state of EV euphoria. Automakers trotted out optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and announced ambitious targets for EV growth. Wall Street boosted valuations for legacy automakers and startup entrants alike, based in part on their visions for an EV future,” CNBC reported.

“Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Ford Motor and General Motors to Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans,” it added.

The Latest Inflation Numbers

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When reading statistics about anything, remember that a good statistician can make numbers say anything he wants them to say. With that in mind, I think the June inflation numbers look really good.

On Tuesday, CNBC reported:

  • The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%, in line with expectations.
  • Core inflation picked up 0.2% on the month, with the annual rate moving to 2.9%, with the annual rate in line with estimates.
  • While the evidence in June was mixed on how much influence tariffs had over prices, there were signs that the duties are having an impact. Apparel and home furnishing prices rose, though vehicle prices fell.

…Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation picked up 0.2% on the month, with the annual rate moving to 2.9%, with the annual rate in line with estimates. The monthly level was slightly below the outlook for a 0.3% gain.

Inflation in June 2022 was 9.1 percent, but began going down slowly after that. Somehow, though, even when the rate of inflation comes down, the price of everything does not go back to where it started.

The article concludes:

Amid the previously muted inflation ratings, Trump has been urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which it has not done since December. The president has insisted that tariffs are not aggravating inflation, and has contended that the Fed’s refusal to ease is raising the costs the U.S. has to pay on its burgeoning debt and deficit problem.

Central bankers, led by Chair Jerome Powell, have refused to budge. They insist that the U.S. economy is in a strong enough position now that the Fed can afford to wait to see the impact tariffs will have on inflation. Trump in turn has called on Powell to resign and is certain to name someone else to the job when the chair’s term expires in May 2026.

Markets expect the Fed to stay on hold when it meets at the end of July and then cut by a quarter percentage point in September.

The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 for the purpose of concentrating America’s wealth in the New York City Banks (yes, I know that wasn’t what you were told). It needs to go away. For further information, see The Creature from Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin.

This Could Be The Start Of Something Big!

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On Friday, CNBC reported the following:

  • With government red ink swelling throughout the year, June saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May.
  • Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and a 301% gain from June 2024.

CNBC notes:

That brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion, up 5% from a year ago. However, with calendar adjustment, the deficit actually edged lower by 1%. There are three months left in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30.

A 13% increase in receipts from the same month a year ago helped bridge the gap, with outlays down 7%. For the year, receipts are up 7% while spending has risen 6%.

The government last posted a June surplus in 2017, during President Donald Trump’s first term.

Increasing tariff collections are helping shore up the government finances.

Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and 301% higher than June 2024. On an annual basis, tariff collections have totaled $113 billion, or 86% more than a year ago.

The article notes that the interest on the debt is a major budget item:

Net interest on the $36 trillion national debt totaled $84 billion in June, down slightly from May but still higher than any other category with the exception of Social Security. For the year, net interest — what Treasury pays on the debt it issues minus what it earns on investments — is at $749 billion. Total interest payments are projected at $1.2 trillion for the full fiscal year.

Lowering interest rates would bring down that cost.

The June Jobs Report Is Out

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On June 3rd, Fox Business posted an article about the June Jobs Report. The economy is improving rapidly, but there are still some weak spots.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added jobs in June at a faster pace than in recent months, despite economic uncertainty stemming from trade, tax and monetary policy.

The Labor Department on Thursday reported that employers added 147,000 jobs in June. That figure was above the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who projected 110,000 jobs would be added.

The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%, which was lower than economists’ expectations of 4.3%.

Job gains in the prior two months were both revised, with job creation in April revised up by 11,000 from a gain of 147,000 to 158,000; and May job gains were revised up by 5,000 from a gain of 139,000 to 144,000. Taken together, employment in April and May was 16,000 jobs higher than previously reported.

The workforce participation rate has remained steady.

I don’t know how to reconcile this information with a post from CNBC on Wednesday that reported:

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

The article at Fox Business concludes:

“The U.S. job market continues to largely stand tall and sturdy, even as headwinds mount – but it may be a tent increasingly held up by fewer poles,” said Cory Stahle, Indeed Hiring Lab economist. “The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare and social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will likely ring hollow.”

The market viewed the June jobs report as solidifying the outlook for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for its fifth consecutive meeting later this month. 

The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in July declined from 23.8% a day ago to 6.7% on Thursday following the report’s release, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

We need an interest cut now to help with the government’s interest payments and to help the real estate market. Right now the real estate market is being held hostage by the refusal to cut interest rates.