Tag Archives: Gross domestic product (GDP)

Some Good News About The Economy

Posted on by

On Wednesday, CNBC reported the following:

  • Gross domestic product jumped to 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
  • Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
  • While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
  • President Donald Trump responded to the GDP report with a fresh demand for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

In another article posted on Wednesday, CNBC reported:

  • Private payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 104,000 for the month, reversing a loss of 23,000 in June and topping the Dow Jones forecast for an increase of 64,000.
  • Wages rose at a 4.4% annual pace for the month, about in line with recent trends.

The first article mentioned reports:

The U.S. economy grew at a much stronger-than-expected pace in the second quarter, powered by a turnaround in the trade balance and renewed consumer strength, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Gross domestic product, a sum of goods and services activity across the sprawling U.S. economy, jumped 3% for the April through June period, according to figures adjusted for seasonality and inflation.

That topped the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% and helped reverse a decline of 0.5% for the first quarter that came largely due to a huge drop in imports, which subtract from the total, as well as weak consumer spending amid tariff concerns.

Financial markets reacted little to the report, with stock index futures mixed and Treasury yields higher.

“The word of the summer for the economy is ‘resilient,’” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The consumer is hanging in there, but still on edge until the trade deals are done.”

The second article reports:

Hiring at private companies rebounded at a stronger than expected pace in July, indicating the labor market is holding its ground, ADP reported Wednesday.

Payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 104,000 for the month, reversing a loss of 23,000 in June and topping the Dow Jones forecast from economists for an increase of 64,000. The June number was revised up from an initially reported loss of 33,000.

Though the pace of hiring is well off where it stood last year, the June total was the best since March and consistent with a slowing but still fairly vibrant jobs picture.

“Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.”

At the present time, it looks as if hiring a businessman as President was a good choice for the economy.

The Statistics On The American Economy

Posted on by

On June 17th, CNBC posted an article on some of the latest economic numbers.

The highlights of the article are:

  • Retail sales declined 0.9%, even more than the 0.6% drop expected from the Dow Jones consensus.
  • However, excluding a series of items such as auto dealers, building materials suppliers, gas stations and others, sales increased 0.4%.
  • The pullback in retail sales came despite surveys showing that consumer sentiment actually increased in May.

The article concludes:

The pullback in retail sales came despite surveys showing that consumer sentiment actually improved in May, though compared with levels that had been falling through the year. The ongoing trade war ignited by President Trump’s tariffs had dented consumer and business optimism, though an easing in some of the rhetoric amid a 90-day negotiating period has led to better readings.

GDP declined at a 0.2% annualized pace in the first quarter but is projected to rebound. Second-quarter growth heading into the retail sales release was pegged at 3.8%, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker of rolling data. The gauge will be updated later Tuesday.

In other economic news Tuesday, import prices were flat against a forecast for a 0.1% decline, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Export prices fell 0.9%.

We are in an economic transition period right now. I am hopeful that when the smoke clears, income taxes will be lower, the amount of revenue going to the government because of tariffs and the fact that revenue increases when taxes are lower (see laffer curve), government spending will be down, and Americans will have higher wages and more buying power.

The Numbers Tell The Story

Posted on by

A few days ago, the mainstream media was melting down because the GDP for the first quarter of 2025 had dropped .3%. In decimal, that’s .003. That’s hardly a significant number. Meanwhile, some of the other first-quarter statistics are coming in, and they tell a rather different story.

On May 2, Breitbart reported:

Employers in the United States added 177,000 workers to their payrolls in April, the Department of Labor said Friday, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, defying predictions of labor market sluggishness following President Trump’s announcement of tariffs.

Economists had been expecting 130,000 jobs and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2 percent. The prior month’s jobs figure was revised down to 185,000 from 228,000

The strength in hiring came from the private sector, which added 167,000 jobs. Economists had expected private employers to add just 125,000 workers. This was nearly unchanged from the downwardly revised 170,000 jobs added in March.

The labor market drew in more workers, growing the supply of labor in April. The participation rate rose to 62.6 percent from 62.5 in the previous month. The number of people employed in the month rose by 436,000 to 163,944,000.

The average workweek expanded to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours, a sign that employer demand for labor grew in the month. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent. Compared with a year ago, average earnings are up 3.8 percent, significantly higher than the 2.4 percent gain in the consumer price index through March.

The rising wages combined with the falling inflation rate are good news for Americans. Most of us are seeing very nice changes at the gas pump. The job growth is in the private sector. Since President Trump took office, federal payrolls have contracted by 26,000. When the private sector grows, the economy grows.

According to the Government Executive Website:

President Biden has overseen a nearly 6% growth of the full-time, non-seasonal federal workforce during his four years in office, including a jump at nearly every major agency.

Most American consumers are very happy with the changes President Trump has made during his first 110 days.