Elections Matter In Economics

Townhall posted an article today about the economic recovery in America after the coronavirus.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate rose to 5.9 percent according to the latest data released Friday morning from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Among the industries with the most notable growth — as more states lift restrictions put in place due to the Wuhan coronavirus — were leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and professional and business services.

The article notes the impact of the increased unemployment benefits:

The stronger-than-expected job growth is due in part to states that have ended expanded or extended federal unemployment benefits that often incentivized citizens to stay out of the workforce. As the Wall Street Journal noted recently, the number of Americans taking unemployment benefits is “falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states canceling enhanced and extended payments this month, suggesting that ending the aid could push more people to take jobs.”

As June’s employment data demonstrates, ending the extended benefits did push more people to enter the workforce because, for some, it was no longer more financially beneficial to avoid returning to work. 

The article concludes:

These states, unsurprisingly, are almost all led by Republicans. Even Politico noted that, when it comes to the 15 states that have already returned to pre-Wuhan coronavirus economic activity, “12 are led by Republican governors.” On the flip side, “the 10 states reporting the lowest levels of activity since January 2020, seven — including New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois — are run by Democratic governors.”

The data from these states, along with today’s jobs report for June, suggest conservative leadership and policies are a significant predictor of a strong economic recovery.

The Republican National Committee recently heralded the economic growth in GOP-led states based on Labor Department data that found 18 of the top 20 states for jobs recovered since COVID hit have Republican-controlled legislatures, as do 17 of the 20 states with the lowest unemployment. 

The workforce participation rate is unchanged from May–it is holding at 61.6 percent.

Good News On The Job Front

The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released its jobs numbers for June this morning. CNS News posted the numbers.

This is the Labor Force Participation Rate chart taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

As you can see, the Labor Force Participation Rate is fairly steady and moving upward.

Meanwhile, the article at CNS News reports:

The U.S. economy added 220,000 jobs in June, the best showing since February and well above analysts’ expectations of 174,000.

The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics also said the number of employed Americans — which set records in February, March and April — set another record in June, at 153,168,000 employed.

And the number of Americans not in the labor force — after four straight monthly gains – dropped a bit to 94,813,000.

There is still a lot that needs to be done to put Americans back to work, but we are moving in the right direction. Cutting back on federal regulations should help stimulate the economy, but that impact of cutting those regulations may not be immediately felt.

The article further reports:

Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 194,000 per month.

In a June 29, 2017 update, the Congressional Budget Office said it expects the U.S. labor market to tighten in the next two years, as greater demand for workers will push the unemployment rate down and the labor force participation rate up.

The projected demand for workers will encourage more people to participate in the labor force, temporarily offsetting the projected decline in participation arising from such factors as the ongoing retirement of baby boomers.

CBO projects that the unemployment rate will remain around 4.3 percent by the end of 2017 and then drop further to 4.2 percent in early 2018.