Tag Archives: Strait of Hormuz

The Blockade Begins Again

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On Wednesday, Breitbart posted an article about the continuing war with Iran. Peace is a wonderful idea, but it requires two parties negotiating in good faith. We haven’t really had that.

The article reports:

The United States launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iran on Tuesday after President Donald Trump vowed to reimpose a naval blockade, prompting Tehran to respond with strikes on targets in countries around the region.

Trump said a negotiated deal was still possible, but fighting surged to a scale unseen since an April ceasefire. Iran hit two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, killing a crew member, according to the United Arab Emirates.

…Bahrain said it had intercepted “several treacherous aerial attacks launched by Iran” and accused Tehran of targeting civilians, after explosions and sirens were heard in Manama.

Trump’s declaration on the Hormuz blockade and the scale of the renewed fighting have called into question efforts to bring a permanent end to the war.

Iran started blocking the strait after US-Israel attacks in February, which prompted Washington’s blockade on Tehran’s ports — but restrictions eased after the sides agreed a preliminary deal in June.

President Trump initially said that he would charge a 20% toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to cover the cost of defending it. However, he has altered that plan–replacing the toll with trade and investment deals that various Gulf States will be making with America.

The article concludes:

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded mockingly on X that Trump was “absolutely right” that whoever guarantees safe passage should be compensated, but that Tehran would charge less for this service, noting that “20% is of course too much”.

Washington has vehemently opposed Tehran’s desire to charge tolls in the strait, which international law generally forbids.

Despite all signs to the contrary, Trump said Monday that a deal with Tehran to end the war was still possible.

Until there is a change of leadership in Iran, I don’t expect peace.

Someone Needs To Do This

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On Monday, The Hill posted an article reporting that President Trump announced that America will be taking steps to insure the security of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

President Trump said Monday that the U.S.’s naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz will be reinstated as Washington and Tehran fight for control of the crucial waterway after strikes were exchanged over the weekend.

“The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving.”

“All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait,” he said, adding that the U.S. will be known as “the Guardian of the Hormuz Strait.”

Trump said the U.S. will be “reimbursed” 20 percent on all cargo shipped “as a matter of FAIRNESS” for the security needed.

“The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World,” he wrote. “The process and formation will begin immediately.”

If our military is guarding the Strait and making the use of it available to other countries, we need to be compensated. Hopefully we will see regime change in Iran at some point and will no longer need American forces to protect the Strait.

The article notes:

Iran, for its part, has pushed back, saying the strait is theirs and they “will not allow a rogue and child-killing army from the other side of the world to continue its illegal interference in it,” according to The Associated Press.

According to factually.co:

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), waterways used for international navigation where no reasonable alternative exists are classified as “international straits” and are subject to transit passage, which prioritizes uninterrupted navigation and limits coastal-state control [3][5]. Many legal scholars and Western governments treat Hormuz as such an international strait and therefore argue transit passage applies as a matter of customary international law and UNCLOS interpretation [7][8]. Iran, however, asserts broader rights within its territorial sea and has claimed the ability to suspend passage or regulate traffic, invoking older legal doctrines and the fact that it has not ratified UNCLOS—an argument that complicates treaty-based enforcement.

It is obviously in the interests of most of the world to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. America is probably the only country in the world that has the military muscle to do that.

UPDATE: Further negotiations have resulted in the 20% toll being by significant investment in America by Middle Eastern countries.

Negotiating With A Two-Year Old

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When your child is standing in front of you with his face full of chocolate, it is pretty obvious who got into the cookie jar. He can blame the dog, his sister, or his brother, but the truth is still obvious. Someone got into the cookie jar, and he looks like the obvious culprit.

On Friday, Breitbart reported the following:

Iran reportedly told Trump advisers the Strait of Hormuz attacks were the work of a rogue hardline group and not a deliberate government decision.

Iran has reportedly told the Trump administration behind closed doors that the attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were not intended as official government action and were instead carried out by a rogue hardline faction seeking to derail ongoing negotiations, according to senior U.S. officials cited by CBS News senior White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs.

The White House, however, is pushing Tehran to publicly admit it was responsible, arguing the incident breached the ceasefire agreement. Despite the incident, President Donald Trump has instructed Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to press ahead with diplomatic talks, which are expected to take place in Oman.

And what about the other attacks by Iran on their Arab neighbors? Was some rogue group responsible for those attacks also? If the government of Iran was not responsible for those attacks, wasn’t it still their responsibility to control the people doing the attacking? Who is actually in charge in Iran?

The article notes:

U.S. officials also warned that Washington is prepared to use both military force and economic pressure if Iran launches further hostile actions.

The United States and Iran appear to be steering back toward the Memorandum of Understanding despite recent military action, after U.S. forces struck Iranian military targets following Trump’s confirmation that the ceasefire had ended.

I am not convinced that anything good is happening here. I believe Iran wants to drag out negotiations until November in the hope of influencing the American mid-term election. They seem to want to talk to America only after we remind them that we have attack capabilities.

A Very Strategic Strike

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On July 9th, The Times of Israel reported:

Overnight US strikes on Iran hit the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge in northern Iran’s Golestan province, Fars news agency says, a trade link to Tehran’s strategic partners China and Russia.

Fars says the route that goes on to pass through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan has been an important land link to China that gained further relevance during this year’s blockade of Iran’s Gulf ports by the US.

It adds that the route has also been used by Russia for cargo shipments to Iran since late 2025.

A friend on X posted:

This wasn’t just a random target; it was the bypass valve for the “North-South” transport corridor, which Tehran has been desperately relying on to move goods while its maritime ports remain under U.S. blockade. By vaporizing this rail link, Washington has signaled that it’s not just squeezing Iran’s navy in the Strait of Hormuz—it’s systematically strangling the regime’s entire land-based logistical network. ​

This strike is a masterclass in American strategic dominance. For months, the regime in Tehran has tried to use land routes through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to circumvent the U.S. naval pressure, hoping to keep its economy on life support despite the blockade.

Fars News Agency is Iran says that the bridge will be repaired quickly. If it is repaired quickly, we will have to bomb it again–it is Iran’s route around the blockade.

Everyone Eventually Runs Out Of Patience

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On Wednesday, Zero Hedge posted an update on what is happening in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

  • US strikes on Iran announced, as ‘heavy costs’ for earlier targeting of multiple commercial vessels
  • Oil rises as Treasury revokes June 21 Iran oil waiver
  • Hormuz Threat Level Raised To “Severe” 
  • Three maritime incidents reported on Hormuz in last 24 hours 
  • Another unidentified vessel hit by a Drone
  • IRGC forces hit a Saudi Tanker 
  • IRGC forces hit a Qatari LNG tanker

These are the actions of a cornered animal fighting for its life.

The article concludes with a summary of the impact of the current situation:

Diplomatic Developments

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Tuesday that negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue, referencing a memorandum of understanding with the US

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will travel to Iraq on Tuesday to attend funeral processions for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, scheduled for Wednesday in Najaf and Karbala

Market Impact

• European natural gas prices surged as much as 6% on Tuesday, the most in a month, following the attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

• Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with Brent trading near $73 a barrel, as the attacks highlighted continued risks to vessels in the critical waterway

• Gold fell for a second day on Tuesday, dropping as much as 1.2% to below $4,120 an ounce, as the Hormuz attacks rekindled inflation concerns

• France lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.9%, citing the Middle East conflict as a factor holding back output

Oil Trade Developments

• India’s state-run refiners are in talks with traders marketing Iranian crude and preparing to buy barrels if the US extends waivers beyond August or eases restrictions

• Two supertankers hauling Saudi crude are heading to the US for the first time since February, following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

• Russia’s Urals crude price averaged $41.66 a barrel at western ports in early July, falling to pre-Iran war levels and less than half the level during the height of oil market turmoil in April

There are a lot of moving parts here.

For instance, according to Artificial Intelligence (AI):

To understand the price of oil needed to sustain the Russian economy today, consider the following factors:

    1. Budget Breakeven: The Russian government requires oil prices to be around $40-$50 per barrel to balance its budget.
    2. Economic Stability: Prices above $60 per barrel are generally needed for economic stability and growth.
    3. Inflation Control: Higher oil prices help manage inflation and support the ruble’s value.
    4. Social Spending: Sustaining social programs and pensions often requires oil prices to exceed $70 per barrel.
    5. Global Market Influence: Fluctuations in global oil demand and geopolitical tensions can impact the necessary price for sustainability.
    6. Long-term Investments: To fund future projects and infrastructure, prices above $80 per barrel are preferable.

Russia is an ally of Iran. Russia needs high energy prices to sustain its economy. Did Russia play a role in encouraging the attacks in the Strait of Hormuz?

It’s Time To Stop Being Patient

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On Tuesday, Yahoo News posted a Reuters post about recent attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. I don’t think Iran is behaving very well, and I think it’s time for Iran to be held accountable for its bad behavior.

The article reports:

Three tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, including an LNG carrier at risk of explosion, as huge crowds mourned Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the holy city of Qom.

Qatar blamed Iran for the attack on a huge Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, the Al Rekayyat, which reported being struck overnight by a drone that caused a ‌fire in its engine room.

The crew were safe and being evacuated, but maritime security sources told Reuters the fire could put the ship at risk of explosion.

A Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, believed to be the ‌supertanker Wedyan, was also damaged off Oman, maritime security sources said. The cause was not immediately clear.

The article concludes:

In a CNN interview, Netanyahu said it was too early ‌to say how negotiations with Tehran will play out, but hinted at a continuing divergence ​with the White House over whether diplomacy can ultimately neutralize Iran’s ​nuclear program.

“The President believes that he can stop Iran’s nuclear program,” Netanyahu told CNN, adding that he has his doubts.

Nevertheless, Trump should be “given the chance” to achieve that goal, Netanyahu added, insisting the two governments were aligned on Iran strategy. “On the big things we see eye to eye, and occasionally we don’t, but we’re true allies,” he said.

Oil prices, which have returned to around the prewar level since last month’s interim deal, rose ​more than 2% on Tuesday following the incidents in the waterway.

In launching the war ‌four months ago, Trump said his aims were to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, end its ability to threaten its neighbours and create conditions for Iranians to topple their leaders.

None of those goals ​has been met, although Washington says a permanent deal will halt what it says is an Iranian programme that could make a nuclear bomb, which Iran says it never sought.

At some point you have to stop negotiating with the neighborhood bully and simply punch him in the face!

UPDATE: I think President Trump has run out of patience.

Victor Davis Hanson And The War In Iran

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Victor David Hanson is one of America’s foremost historians. He is known for his clear analysis of both past and present history. On Saturday, Fox News posted some of this analysis on its website.

Here are some highlights from the article.:

Historian Victor Davis Hanson called out critics of the newly signed U.S.-Iran preliminary agreement, arguing that they are misreading American leverage in negotiations.

Speaking on “Jesse Watters Primetime,” Hanson disputed what he described as misconceptions about the deal and said the military conflict dismantled Iran’s infrastructure, leaving Tehran with no cards to play.

“They’ve suffered probably a half a trillion dollars to their nuclear military industrial complex that took them 50 years to build,” Hanson said in response to what he called “unhinged” arguments that Iran is better off now than before the conflict.

…The Trump administration’s memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran was released this week, laying out the terms of the deal reached by both parties for a 60-day ceasefire and a framework for negotiations.

The deal itself has drawn criticism from both sides of the political aisle, with critics arguing that it does not include aspects like an immediate dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure or the removal of enriched uranium stockpiles.

Hanson also pushed back against critics who have cited difficulties moving oil out of the region due to Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The article concludes:

He suggested that Tehran is concerned about America’s upcoming midterm elections and the nation’s 250th anniversary.

Hanson argued that if the conflict goes past the midterms, Trump will be less constrained by electoral considerations.

“They are terrified that if he wins the midterms and the price of gas goes down, he’s got a free hand, and he already has a free hand now,” Hanson said.

“They are afraid that Donald Trump is [going to] drag it out because if he drags it out after the midterm, after the 250th anniversary, he’s [going to] have a lot more options than he does now when he’s worried about gas and the midterm. So the dynamic is all upside down. They are the ones that have the time clock.”

It is going to be an interesting few months.

It Really Is Time For This To End

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According to Townhall, the Iranians have walked out on negotiations in Switzerland. Other sources say the talks are ongoing. The supposed  walkout is in objection to Israel defending itself from Hezbollah attacks. The article also noted that Qatar’s intermediary ignored Vance’s attempt to shake hands with him, more than suggesting that Qatar is acting on behalf of Iran at this stage. That shouldn’t come as a surprise–if Iran is the number one sponsor of world terrorism, then Qatar is the number two sponsor. There are also varying reports on whether or not Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. I will say that President Trump has a whole lot more patience than I do.

On Saturday, The Independent Journal Review reported:

Iran announced Saturday it will close the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of launching strikes in Lebanon in violation of a ceasefire which had just taken effect.

The Israeli strikes took place hours after the ceasefire with the Hezbollah terror group took effect Friday at 4:00 p.m. local time, Reuters reported, citing Lebanese Civil Defense. The strikes preceded an announcement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that ships should not attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media outlet Seraph News reported.

Iran claimed the Israeli strikes violated the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which called for an immediate halt to hostilities between Iran, Lebanon, the United States, and U.S. allies.

Israel, meanwhile, claimed Hezbollah fired more than 50 projectiles at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon overnight, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed Israeli military official.

“Israel wants to attack Hezbollah, and they also are happy to screw up the ceasefire,” Defense Priorities Policy Director Benjamin Friedman told the Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF). “They pushed us into the war, and they want us to continue it, even if it tanks the global economy.”

The strikes killed 16 people and injured 12 others, the Lebanese Civil Defense wrote in a Saturday post to X.

It really is time to turn the bombers loose and totally defeat Iran. Peace is not possible any other way.

Who Is In Charge?

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On June 19th, The New York Post posted an article with some concerning news about Iran.

The article reports:

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was flowing Friday — under Iran’s monitoring — after a radio message to vessels in the region suggested the waterway had been closed over tensions with Israel and the US.

“The armed forces of Iran, in accordance with the memorandum of understanding [MOU] to end the war dated June 18, 2026, have taken the necessary measures to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping in this route is currently underway,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Friday, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.

Earlier, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) statement read over maritime radio channels warned vessels from entering the strait because the US was in violation of the MOU between Washington and Tehran, which President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed Wednesday.

I suspect that this is only the beginning of the problem of knowing who is in charge in Iran. We took out the first two tiers of leadership, and now the Iranian elites are fighting among themselves for control. That is a good thing for America and a bad thing for Iran.

The article concludes:

Meanwhile, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) — which Tehran recently formed so it could control the strait and, critics say, charge fees — released a set of new “terms and conditions” for ships passing through the vital waterway.

While the MOU requires Iran to hold off demanding payment from shipping firms for the next 60 days, the document explicitly states Tehran “reserves the right to introduce” new fees in the future.

The document also requires all ships to get a permit from the PGSA to pass through the strait, which was not required before the war began Feb. 28, as the strait is considered international waters.

The White House and State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Frankly, I will be surprised if the Iran deal lasts for two weeks. I am not sure it was meant to last. I believe it was meant to illustrate the character of those currently in charge in Iran.

The Long-Term Consequences Of Closing The Strait Of Hormuz

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On Wednesday, The Liberty Daily posted an article detailing some of the plans to Middle Eastern countries to avoid the problems of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in the future. This is called good planning. I remember Pat Robertson being concerned about the possibility of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz back in the 1990’s. Iran’s using the closing of the Strait as a weapon should really have not surprised anyone.

The article reports:

The shuttered Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen within days, though conflicting reports suggest the US-Iran memorandum of understanding could be formally signed as early as today, Thursday, or Friday. Either way, the interim peace deal appears likely to be signed within the next 48 hours, setting the stage for energy flows through the critical maritime chokepoint to begin normalizing, a process that could take many months.

The broader takeaway is that buyers of crude, refined products, and LNG now have to rethink their sourcing stack after the US-Iran conflict effectively shut Hormuz for several months. That means diversifying supply chains and reducing exposure to single-point maritime chokepoints. For Gulf energy producers, the Hormuz disruption will accelerate a massive push toward alternative export channels that bypass Hormuz entirely, potentially reducing Tehran’s ability to use the strait as a lever in future conflicts.

The article includes the following map:

The article concludes:

The UAE can reroute more crude through pipelines to eastern ports, but LNG, aluminum, container imports, and other commodities are harder to shift. Dubai’s Jebel Ali remains the world’s largest container hub outside Asia, and moving more cargo through eastern ports would raise inland transport costs and boost shipping times.

In recent weeks, the Iraqi cabinet approved plans to accelerate crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network, which would more than triple its existing shipments from 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000.

“Iraq is in a much more complicated situation because we know that most, if not all, of its oil transits through Hormuz,” Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube, told CNBC in an interview.

What is becoming increasingly clear is that the Hormuz squeeze is rewiring the Persian Gulf’s energy map. Over time, that shift could render Iran’s leverage over the Hormuz chokepoint far less effective, if not obsolete.

Perhaps Tehran has already read the writing on the wall. That may help explain why Iranian officials are now willing to play ball with the Trump administration through an MoU to reopen Hormuz and eventually enter talks over the country’s nuclear ambitions.

I am not sure how many countries in the Middle East believe that the Strait will remain open permanently.

Moving Shipping Through The Strait Again

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On Thursday, Zero Hedge posted an article about resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

  • Kuwait Petroleum CEO says Energy Production to Ramp in a Week 
  • Iran Media says Southern Ports Traffic Begins Normalizing 
  • Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For Asia

The article notes:

Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf.

There is a massive backlog of crude and LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf, preparing to exit the Hormuz chokepoint bound for Asia. Bloomberg says 31 supertankers, carrying about 62 million barrels of crude, could soon exit.

The actual number of crude and LNG tankers preparing to exit could be much higher, as some tankers may turn off their transponders. Once exited, many of those tankers are slated for ports in East Asia and will take roughly three weeks to arrive.

One of the key developments overnight was that three Saudi-controlled supertankers, including Bahri-controlled Saudi VLCCs Shaden, Jaham, and Awtad, switched on their transponders and began exiting the Persian Gulf.

Maritime traffic remains far below normal levels and could take many months to return to normal.

This is good news. There are also other consequences of the reopening of the Strait that are good news. If the price of a barrel of oil drops to $50 or $60 a barrel, it is going to be very difficult for Russia to fund its war in Ukraine. The other piece of good news will be the price of gasoline at the pump in America and around the world.

I am not totally sold on the Iran deal, but it may be a necessary interim step. America has never done a good job of regime change in other countries, so it may be just as well that we did not insist on it in Iran. Iran is currently being governed by its third string (we bombed the first two out of existence), and it is quite possible that the third string is operating in a way that wants to avoid the fate of the first two strings!

A Few Observations On Iran

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On June 18th, Victor Davis Hanson posted an article about the war in Iran at American Greatness. The purpose of the article is to clear up some of the current misconceptions about the war and the agreement to end the war.

The article begins with addressing the mistaken idea that the Strait of Hormuz was open before the war and is now closed, so the war was a failure.

The article notes:

The Strait was open because an appeased Iran had no reason to close it—given that no nation on earth dared to end its nuclear dreams of dominating the Middle East, funding anti-Western terrorists, and threatening Europe and the U.S.

So the rub was always disarming Iran and then dealing with its inevitable desperate strategy of closing the Strait.

The second misconception is that Trump’s agreement will simply be a copy of Obama’s earlier Iran deal.

The article notes:

Obama dealt from a position of abject weakness. Iran assumed correctly that Obama would offer endless concessions and cash, while never considering force.

Does Obama really believe that Iran in 2015 was stronger than it is now after 40 days of intense American, Israeli, and Gulf state bombing?

Trump is dealing with a bankrupt Iran, a neutered military, a restive Iranian street, a wounded regime, and the specter that the U.S. can do whatever it wishes militarily to a shattered Iran for the foreseeable future.

The next misconception is that the U.S. is bereft of allies and strategically isolated in the war.

The article notes:

During the war, the unthinkable occurred when Israel de facto became an ally of the Arab Gulf monarchies. Other than a few rogue nations and Arab terrorist clients—the weakened Hezbollah, the crushed Hamas, and the wary Houthis—Iran has zero friends.

Neither China nor Russia offered Iran much in the way of aid, other than satellite imagery and some smuggled supplies. Both lost their once-prominent positions among clients in the Middle East who deeply resented their siding with Persian Shiite theocrats over Arab oil suppliers and arms buyers.

Israel has more combat aircraft than the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The Gulf monarchies do so as well. Both Israel and the Gulf states have been flying bombing missions against Iran. There is a far greater chance of Arab-Israeli rapprochement after the war than before it.

Please follow the link to read the entire article. It explains exactly where we are right now.

The Stalling Is Going To End Shortly

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President Trump is running out of patience with the Iranians in the peace negotiations.  It has become obvious that the Iranians really don’t want to negotiate–they just want to hold out until the midterm elections hoping that by that time the war will no longer have the support of the American voters.

On Thursday, The New York Post reported:

President Trump said he is readying new strikes on Iranian infrastructure — after warning that the Islamic Republic will “have to pay the price” for taking “too long” to negotiate a peace deal.

The commander-in-chief said he is “getting close to ordering new strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges” in a phone call with Fox News’ chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst on Wednesday.

Trump also accused Iran in the phone call of “tapping the United States along when it comes to the negotiating process.”

The current cease-fire has not been two impressive–everyone has continued their drone strikes, only somewhat less frequently.

The article notes:

It came as the president took to Truth Social to warn of retaliatory strikes against Iran following the shooting down of a US Apache helicopter on Monday near the Strait of Hormuz.

“They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!” Trump wrote in a thunderous post Wednesday morning, after stating that the country’s military infrastructure and leadership were in disarray.

“Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore – They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! ” he added.

It really is time to end Iran’s funding of terror in the Middle East. If we need to destroy Iran’s infrastructure to do that, I am okay with that.

Confronting Fake News

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On Tuesday, Townhall posted an article about President Trump’s debunking some recent fake news.

The article reports:

President Donald Trump went scorched earth on reports that the Iranian regime cut off contact with the U.S. over Israel’s recent military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In a post on Truth Social, the president wrote, “Fake News Reports that the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the U.S.A., stopped speaking a few days ago are false and erroneous.”

This is what the President posted on Truth Social:

The conversations between us have been going on continuously, including four days ago, three days ago, two days ago, one day ago, and today. Where they lead, one never knows, but as I told Iran, “It’s time, one way or another, for you to make a Deal. You’ve been doing this for 47 years, and it cannot be allowed to go on any longer!”

The Iranian state media has claimed that Iran suspended the talks because of Israel’s activities in Lebanon.

The article notes:

However, he (President Trump) also stressed that he had not heard this directly from the regime and posited that the reports were meant for media outlets to pick up. Trump on Tuesday said he believes Washington and Tehran could come to an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while pushing Iran toward giving up its nuclear program.

…Trump has consistently demanded that Iran abandon its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, material that can be used to manufacture nuclear weapons. Iran has rejected full concessions on the nuclear matter, but expressed willingness to draw down its program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and other demands.

Meanwhile, Americans are dealing with heightened gas prices as a result of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which it started shortly after the war started.

It really is time for this to be over, one way or the other.

This Is One Weird Cease-Fire

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On Tuesday, Breitbart posted an article about U.S. attacks on Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats in the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

Fresh strikes on southern Iran were launched by U.S. military forces early Tuesday morning targeting Iranian missile sites and vessels attempting to lay anti-shipping mines in the contested Strait of Hormuz.

The targeted strikes were done “to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” but the military was “using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Capt. Tim Hawkins, the spokesman for the U.S. military’s Central Command, said in a statement as reported by AP.

Following the strikes, the BBC reports U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal was still possible and pointed to talks on Tuesday between Iran’s top negotiator and foreign minister and Qatar’s prime minister.

The article concludes:

Capt Hawkins said the U.S. strikes targeted an area near Bandar Abbas, a southern port city and the site of one of Iran’s largest naval bases, that sits on the Strait of Hormuz, according to the New York Times.

Iranian state media had earlier reported local officials in Bandar Abbas were investigating after explosions were heard.

As I have previously stated, I don’t think this war ends without a total defeat of Iran. A total defeat could bring regime change, although that is not a guarantee, but a total defeat could end the threat. We will have to find a way to stop Iran from re-arming and re-developing its nuclear capabilities. World War II ended because Germany and Japan were thoroughly defeated. I don’t think the war with Iran ends any other way. A total defeat is the only way to bring peace to the region. It should also be considered that there are countries that do not want peace in the Middle East–it is to their advantage to promote unrest in the region.

I Am Not Optimistic

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I really don’t expect a deal with Iran. I think that if they can they will delay until the midterm elections hoping President Trump will not have the support of Congress to continue the war. I also believe that President Trump is not naive about who he is dealing with.

On May 24, NewsMax reported:

The United States is close to reaching a deal with Iran that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, regional officials told The Associated Press on Sunday. They said details and timelines would be worked out later.

“If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon,” President Donald Trump wrote in his latest post on Truth Social Sunday afternoon.

“Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals!”

The article notes:

“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” Trump said on social media Sunday. He said the U.S. relationship with Iran is becoming “much more professional and productive.”

The strait’s (Strait of Hormuz) reopening would begin to ease a worldwide energy crisis sparked by the surprise U.S. and Israeli bombardment of Iran on Feb. 28, which led Tehran to effectively close the crucial waterway. Prices have spiked for oil, gas and several downstream products, jolting the world economy. Experts say it would take several weeks or even months for shipping and prices to recover to prewar levels.

The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports for over a month, and Trump on Sunday said the blockade “will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”

I really don’t trust the current government of Iran (whoever that might be) to make and keep a reasonable deal with America.

This Seems To Be A Strange Sort Of Ceasefire

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On Thursday, Breitbart posted the following headline:

Trump: Iranian Attackers ‘Destroyed’ After Firing on U.S. Destroyers — Ports Struck; Ceasefire Holding

I don’t mean to be picky, but if people are firing weapons at each other, how is it a ceasefire?

The article continues:

President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iranian attacking forces were “completely destroyed” after Tehran fired missiles, drones, and fast attack boats at three U.S. Navy destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. Central Command to carry out retaliatory “self-defense strikes” on Iranian military targets and port areas as the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran again came under strain.

U.S. Central Command said its forces intercepted what it described as “unprovoked Iranian attacks” as the USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason transited the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman.

The article reports:

“Our three Destroyers, with their wonderful Crews, will now rejoin our Naval Blockade, which is truly a ‘Wall of Steel,’” he wrote.

Trump also warned Tehran that if it does not quickly agree to the broader framework deal now under discussion, the United States would respond with far more severe military force in the future.

“A normal Country would have allowed these Destroyers to pass, but Iran is not a normal Country,” Trump wrote, blasting Tehran’s leadership as “LUNATICS,” who “would” use a nuclear weapon “without question” if given the opportunity.

“But they’ll never have that opportunity and, just like we knocked them out again today, we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” Trump warned.

I am hoping that soon the Iranian tyrants will turn the government and the military of Iran back to the Persian people of Iran.

A Quick Look At The Moving Parts

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As I write this on Thursday morning, crude oil futures are roughly $90 a barrel and trending lower. According to AI, Russia needs oil at $100 a barrel to continue the war in Ukraine. My earlier research said $80 a barrel, but evidently $100 a barrel is needed to cover some accumulated debt that Russia has taken on because of the war.

Saudi Arabia is limiting America’s use of the Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh and is not allowing American planes to fly through Saudi airspace to support the efforts to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. One guess as to why Saudi Arabia is doing this is that the Saudi’s don’t want to attacked by Iranian missiles or drones. They do not want to be collateral damage in the war in Iran.

The United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) has left The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (and OPEC’s limits on U.A.E. oil production) and has an oil pipeline that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. Look for an increased use of that pipeline.

One of the current leaders of Iran has met recently with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi (days before President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese Communist leader Xi Jinping). China does not want Iran destroyed or the current government of Iran overthrown. China has major investments in Iran. Is China putting pressure on Iran to make a deal? If Iran agrees to give up their nuclear program and enriched uranium, can we trust them to do it?

Aren’t you glad that you are not President Trump who has to sort all this out?

Rapid Changes In The Middle East

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I am writing this on Friday, May 1. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) left the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) today. Saudi Arabia will no longer control how much oil the UAE can sell. It will be interesting to see what happens to crude oil prices in the next week. But there is another wrinkle in this that is important.The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline became operational in June 2012. It goes from the Habshan plant to the Fujairah Oil Terminal in the Gulf of Oman.

Here is the map:

As you can see, the pipeline allows oil shipments from the UAE to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

On Thursday, The Pipeline Technology Journal reported:

The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC on Wednesday, as the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline becomes its strategic lifeline, guaranteeing more oil to the global market.

Coming amid the Strait of Hormuz closure, the move signals a seismic shift in global energy geopolitics and a pivot toward Western market stability.

The decision underscores the growing importance of the UAE’s strategic infrastructure—specifically the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. 

Unlike the export routes used by many of its neighbors, the Fujairah pipeline allows the UAE to transport crude directly from its inland fields to the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely.

By utilizing this 230-mile overland route, the UAE can guarantee the delivery of up to 2 million barrels of oil per day to international markets. 

This capability provides a critical safety valve for global supplies, which total approximately 100 million barrels daily, at a time when regional tensions have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a volatile maritime chokepoint.

The Strait has long been the “weak link” in global energy security. While previous conflicts involving the Soviet Union, Iran, and Iraq failed to shutter the waterway, recent diplomatic and military pressures have heightened fears of a prolonged disruption. 

The UAE’s ability to “pull the trigger” on an alternative route effectively fractures the historical monopoly held by Middle Eastern producers since OPEC’s formation in 1960.

Analysts suggest the move reflects a broader rebalancing of energy power toward the United States. Following the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, which saw Europe trade Russian gas for American supplies, a similar trend is emerging in the oil sector. 

This is what you get when you elect a businessman as President of America.

A Necessary Move

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On Thursday, Breitbart posted an article about America’s continuing efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

The article reports:

President Donald Trump on Thursday instructed the U.S. Navy to shoot small boats dropping mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The President posted the following on Truth Social:

“I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation,” he wrote.

“Additionally, our mine ‘sweepers’ are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your attention to this matter,” he added.

The article also shares another statement from President Trump:

Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP

As the President has stated, one of the problems with negotiating with Iran at this time is that we don’t know for sure who is running the country. The latest rumor I heard was that the son of the previous Ayatollah, AYATOLLAH Mojtaba Khamenei, who is said to have a severely disfigured face as a result of the attack that killed his father and is only able to speak by telephone. It may be that the military has staged a coup and is now running the country. The bottom line is that probably the only people who actually know what is going on are Israeli intelligence, and they really have no reason to share the information publicly.

A Status Report From A Reliable Source

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On Friday, Fred Fleitz posted an article at American Greatness about the current status of the war in Iran.

The article reports:

For weeks, the mainstream media has churned out negative stories claiming the U.S. has lost its war with Iran, with oil prices spiking, the Strait of Hormuz in turmoil, and America stumbling into another Middle East quagmire. The usual chorus of cable news talking heads and late-night hosts claimed Iran’s radical Islamist regime was intact, that President Trump’s war strategy was reckless, and the whole effort was backfiring.

Wrong. President Trump is winning—and winning decisively. The latest and most effective weapon in his arsenal is the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz.

Just days after U.S. Central Command enforced the blockade, the results are unmistakable. Naval traffic in and out of Iranian ports has been halted. U.S. forces have turned back merchant vessels attempting to run the blockade. Iran, which had been raking in billions from oil exports even during earlier fighting, is now bleeding an estimated $435 million a day. With roughly 90 percent of its economy dependent on sea trade, the regime’s already crippled economy is being strangled.

I would also note that as I am writing this on Friday afternoon, the price of crude oil has dropped from 91.17 this morning to 83.58. I expect to see more price drops in the near future.

The article concludes:

The media elite will keep trying to move the goalposts. They will complain about oil prices, ignore the blockade’s success, and warn of escalation. But the American people can see the difference between media spin and strategic reality. Trump inherited a policy of appeasement by previous U.S. presidents who allowed Iran to enrich uranium and support its terrorist proxies. He replaced it with an America First strategy of strength, clarity, and leverage.

I agree with President Trump that an end to the war is in sight. The blockade is putting unprecedented pressure on the Iranian regime and China, the top buyer of Iranian oil. Iranian officials are seeking more peace talks. At the same time, Secretary of Defense Hegseth made clear in a press conference on Thursday that the U.S. is “locked and loaded” to resume combat operations against Iran, including its power and energy infrastructure, if Iran refuses to agree to a permanent cease-fire.

Contrary to the dire predictions from the mainstream media, President Trump has demonstrated that America can defend its interests and those of its allies without endless wars.

That is what an America First win looks like. The media just refuses to admit it.

Stay tuned.

It’s Really All About Perspective

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Over the past few years, the Coastal Carolina Taxpayers Association has hosted a number of critical thinking classes. It is always a good idea to brush up on critical thinking, particularly if you watch the mainstream media. At one of those classes we were shown the video below:

Sometimes we are so focused on one thing that we can’t see the whole picture. That is my feeling about recent statements by Pope Leo.

The Encyclopedia Britannica defines just war theory:

The four most important conditions are: (1) the war must be declared openly by a proper sovereign authority (e.g., the governing authority of the political community in question); (2) the war must have a just cause (e.g., defense of the common good or a response to grave injustice); (3) the warring state must have just intentions (i.e., it must wage the war for justice rather than for self-interest); and (4) the aim of the war must be the establishment of a just peace. Since the end of World War II it has become customary to add three other conditions: (1) there must be a reasonable chance of success; (2) force must be used as a last resort; and (3) the expected benefits of war must outweigh its anticipated costs.

I believe that the previous actions of the Iranian government combined with their quest for a nuclear weapon resulting an an attack by America and Israel meet the criteria for a just war. The Iranian government’s slaughter of their own people should also be considered. Evidently Pope Leo does not share this belief.

There are many things that Pope Leo could be commenting on at this moment–the slaughter of Christians in Nigeria, abortion in America, and the killing of Christians by Islamists. Somehow he is quiet on these things.

There are some other aspects of the Pope’s recent comments. Is he aware the God definitely answered the prayers of David in the Old Testament? Is he meddling in the American midterm elections? If so, why? The Democrat party stands for many things that are contrary to Catholic teaching. According to one of my sources, there is a money component to this related to the petrodollar and audits that may occur if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Keep your eyes open, and don’t forget how the Iranian people feel about the war–they want their country back!

Exactly What Was America Asking Of Iran?

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On Sunday, Breitbart posted an article about the failed negotiations with Iran. The article notes that there were six key items that America was asking for that were refused by Iran.

These are the six items:

1. Ending all uranium enrichment

2. Dismantling all major nuclear enrichment facilities

3. Allowing for the retrieval of highly enriched uranium

4. Accepting a broader peace, security, and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies

5. Ending funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis

6. Fully opening the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage

These are not unreasonable demands, but they are totally against Iran’s current and future plans. A nuclear Iran would have the perfect blackmail weapon to use against Europe and America. That is exactly what President Trump has avoided.

Breitbart reports:

Vance understood, upon entering the discussions, that there was potential for enormous distrust and misperception, given that the United States and Iran have had minimal interaction over the past 50 or so years, according to an official.

…While he left without a deal, Vance proposed what the official said was the best and final offer, which the vice president believes Iran should find acceptable.

Vance also found that Iran’s delegation had a fundamental misunderstanding of its lack of leverage when it entered the talks, per the official, who stressed that a deal cannot be reached as long as the Iranians believe they hold leverage they do not actually have. The misconception among Iranians about leverage factored into Vance leaving Pakistan after giving them the final offer, with the official noting that they need to understand the assumptions they had upon entering talks are not supported by realities on the ground.

Accepting this reality is key before they will be ready to entertain a serious offer, per the official.

The official stressed that it is up to the Iranians to accept the offer, and that Vance is hopeful that, after reflection in the days ahead, his counterparties will come to realize his final offer is in the best interest of both sides.

“We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it,” Vance notably said Saturday night, Eastern time.

The official noted to Breitbart News that the U.S. national security team has developed a plan to break Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz after discussions with President Donald Trump.

Taking Action In The Strait of Hormuz

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On Saturday, The Epoch Times posted an article about clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

Two U.S. missile destroyers started clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz on April 11 as peace talks kicked off between Washington and the Iranian regime, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed.
“Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon to encourage the free flow of commerce,” CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper said in a statement on Saturday.

The American ships included the USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112).

…Saturday’s confirmation about the mine clearing came hours after a United States government vessel was spotted entering the Strait of Hormuz, according to the ship-tracking intelligence platform Marinetraffic.com.

It’s not clear if this was related to CENTCOM’s mine-clearing mission.

As part of a series of posts on Saturday morning, Trump said countries are sending ships to the United States to “load up” with oil as the Iran War has heavily slowed down oil and gas operations in the Persian Gulf.

“We have more oil than the next two largest oil economies combined—and higher quality. We are waiting for you,” Trump wrote in a separate post on Saturday.
The updates from Trump came hours after Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and adviser and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan, to attend in-person negotiations with Iranian leadership amid a fragile two-week ceasefire.

The article concludes:

The talks, moderated by Pakistani leadership, were set to begin at around 11 a.m. ET on Saturday, a senior White House official confirmed to The Epoch Times.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X in Persian that the country’s delegation will guard its interests “with all its might” and “engage in negotiations with courage.”

Iranian state media, Press TV, reported that Iranian negotiating teams will only extend their stay in Islamabad if they think progress can be made.

I have stated before–I am not optimistic. Any peace agreement that takes away Iran’s nuclear program or forces Iran to stop funding terrorism is not going to be agreed on. As long as whatever ruling forces in Iran that are left can hold on to power and fund terrorism, they will.

Working Together To Protect The Strait Of Hormuz

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On Sunday, Red State posted an article about the plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

The article reports:

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte appeared on “Face the Nation” to talk about the Strait of Hormuz and the threats from Iran.

Rutte explained that the good news was that 22 countries were coming together to make sure that the Strait of Hormuz was free. He explained they’d always gotten things achieved before, as when President Donald Trump had gotten things like the NATO allies to pay their 5 percent share, which helped to provide for greater defense. He said he was “absolutely convinced” they could do the job when it came to Iran.

Most of the 22 are NATO countries. Others involved also included Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. “So we are now planning the military people and others amongst this group of 22 nations and with the U.S.,” Rutte said.

…Rutte followed Waltz (U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz) and spoke about Iran targeting Diego Garcia with two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM). The targeting of an island 2,500 miles away from Iran suggested that they could potentially hit European capitals and U.S. bases in Europe. Iran had previously denied having such capability, but Trump warned they had it.

The article concludes:

Rutte said they were looking at the facts to confirm the capability, but he said if this was true, that was more evidence that Trump’s decision to take out Iran’s ballistic missile capability and the nuclear capability was “crucial.” He explained that if Iran had the missile and nuclear capability, that would be an “existential threat” to everyone in the region and the stability of the world.

“I really hope the American people will be with him because he’s doing this to make the whole world safer,” Rutte said. That part really ticked off some Europeans on social media when he took up for Trump and said he was right. But Rutte has shown in the past he’s not afraid to stick up for what Trump is trying to achieve, just as he did when Trump was trying to get other NATO nations to pay their share of the defense costs.

Because of President Trump’s energy policies, American oil does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz. It is an indication of America’s generosity that it is willing to help the countries that are dependent on the Strait put together a coalition to keep the Strait open.