Tag Archives: Strait of Hormuz

This Seems To Be A Strange Sort Of Ceasefire

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On Thursday, Breitbart posted the following headline:

Trump: Iranian Attackers ‘Destroyed’ After Firing on U.S. Destroyers — Ports Struck; Ceasefire Holding

I don’t mean to be picky, but if people are firing weapons at each other, how is it a ceasefire?

The article continues:

President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iranian attacking forces were “completely destroyed” after Tehran fired missiles, drones, and fast attack boats at three U.S. Navy destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. Central Command to carry out retaliatory “self-defense strikes” on Iranian military targets and port areas as the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran again came under strain.

U.S. Central Command said its forces intercepted what it described as “unprovoked Iranian attacks” as the USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason transited the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman.

The article reports:

“Our three Destroyers, with their wonderful Crews, will now rejoin our Naval Blockade, which is truly a ‘Wall of Steel,’” he wrote.

Trump also warned Tehran that if it does not quickly agree to the broader framework deal now under discussion, the United States would respond with far more severe military force in the future.

“A normal Country would have allowed these Destroyers to pass, but Iran is not a normal Country,” Trump wrote, blasting Tehran’s leadership as “LUNATICS,” who “would” use a nuclear weapon “without question” if given the opportunity.

“But they’ll never have that opportunity and, just like we knocked them out again today, we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” Trump warned.

I am hoping that soon the Iranian tyrants will turn the government and the military of Iran back to the Persian people of Iran.

A Quick Look At The Moving Parts

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As I write this on Thursday morning, crude oil futures are roughly $90 a barrel and trending lower. According to AI, Russia needs oil at $100 a barrel to continue the war in Ukraine. My earlier research said $80 a barrel, but evidently $100 a barrel is needed to cover some accumulated debt that Russia has taken on because of the war.

Saudi Arabia is limiting America’s use of the Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh and is not allowing American planes to fly through Saudi airspace to support the efforts to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. One guess as to why Saudi Arabia is doing this is that the Saudi’s don’t want to attacked by Iranian missiles or drones. They do not want to be collateral damage in the war in Iran.

The United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) has left The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (and OPEC’s limits on U.A.E. oil production) and has an oil pipeline that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. Look for an increased use of that pipeline.

One of the current leaders of Iran has met recently with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi (days before President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese Communist leader Xi Jinping). China does not want Iran destroyed or the current government of Iran overthrown. China has major investments in Iran. Is China putting pressure on Iran to make a deal? If Iran agrees to give up their nuclear program and enriched uranium, can we trust them to do it?

Aren’t you glad that you are not President Trump who has to sort all this out?

Rapid Changes In The Middle East

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I am writing this on Friday, May 1. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) left the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) today. Saudi Arabia will no longer control how much oil the UAE can sell. It will be interesting to see what happens to crude oil prices in the next week. But there is another wrinkle in this that is important.The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline became operational in June 2012. It goes from the Habshan plant to the Fujairah Oil Terminal in the Gulf of Oman.

Here is the map:

As you can see, the pipeline allows oil shipments from the UAE to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

On Thursday, The Pipeline Technology Journal reported:

The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC on Wednesday, as the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline becomes its strategic lifeline, guaranteeing more oil to the global market.

Coming amid the Strait of Hormuz closure, the move signals a seismic shift in global energy geopolitics and a pivot toward Western market stability.

The decision underscores the growing importance of the UAE’s strategic infrastructure—specifically the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. 

Unlike the export routes used by many of its neighbors, the Fujairah pipeline allows the UAE to transport crude directly from its inland fields to the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely.

By utilizing this 230-mile overland route, the UAE can guarantee the delivery of up to 2 million barrels of oil per day to international markets. 

This capability provides a critical safety valve for global supplies, which total approximately 100 million barrels daily, at a time when regional tensions have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a volatile maritime chokepoint.

The Strait has long been the “weak link” in global energy security. While previous conflicts involving the Soviet Union, Iran, and Iraq failed to shutter the waterway, recent diplomatic and military pressures have heightened fears of a prolonged disruption. 

The UAE’s ability to “pull the trigger” on an alternative route effectively fractures the historical monopoly held by Middle Eastern producers since OPEC’s formation in 1960.

Analysts suggest the move reflects a broader rebalancing of energy power toward the United States. Following the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, which saw Europe trade Russian gas for American supplies, a similar trend is emerging in the oil sector. 

This is what you get when you elect a businessman as President of America.

A Necessary Move

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On Thursday, Breitbart posted an article about America’s continuing efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

The article reports:

President Donald Trump on Thursday instructed the U.S. Navy to shoot small boats dropping mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The President posted the following on Truth Social:

“I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation,” he wrote.

“Additionally, our mine ‘sweepers’ are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your attention to this matter,” he added.

The article also shares another statement from President Trump:

Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP

As the President has stated, one of the problems with negotiating with Iran at this time is that we don’t know for sure who is running the country. The latest rumor I heard was that the son of the previous Ayatollah, AYATOLLAH Mojtaba Khamenei, who is said to have a severely disfigured face as a result of the attack that killed his father and is only able to speak by telephone. It may be that the military has staged a coup and is now running the country. The bottom line is that probably the only people who actually know what is going on are Israeli intelligence, and they really have no reason to share the information publicly.

A Status Report From A Reliable Source

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On Friday, Fred Fleitz posted an article at American Greatness about the current status of the war in Iran.

The article reports:

For weeks, the mainstream media has churned out negative stories claiming the U.S. has lost its war with Iran, with oil prices spiking, the Strait of Hormuz in turmoil, and America stumbling into another Middle East quagmire. The usual chorus of cable news talking heads and late-night hosts claimed Iran’s radical Islamist regime was intact, that President Trump’s war strategy was reckless, and the whole effort was backfiring.

Wrong. President Trump is winning—and winning decisively. The latest and most effective weapon in his arsenal is the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz.

Just days after U.S. Central Command enforced the blockade, the results are unmistakable. Naval traffic in and out of Iranian ports has been halted. U.S. forces have turned back merchant vessels attempting to run the blockade. Iran, which had been raking in billions from oil exports even during earlier fighting, is now bleeding an estimated $435 million a day. With roughly 90 percent of its economy dependent on sea trade, the regime’s already crippled economy is being strangled.

I would also note that as I am writing this on Friday afternoon, the price of crude oil has dropped from 91.17 this morning to 83.58. I expect to see more price drops in the near future.

The article concludes:

The media elite will keep trying to move the goalposts. They will complain about oil prices, ignore the blockade’s success, and warn of escalation. But the American people can see the difference between media spin and strategic reality. Trump inherited a policy of appeasement by previous U.S. presidents who allowed Iran to enrich uranium and support its terrorist proxies. He replaced it with an America First strategy of strength, clarity, and leverage.

I agree with President Trump that an end to the war is in sight. The blockade is putting unprecedented pressure on the Iranian regime and China, the top buyer of Iranian oil. Iranian officials are seeking more peace talks. At the same time, Secretary of Defense Hegseth made clear in a press conference on Thursday that the U.S. is “locked and loaded” to resume combat operations against Iran, including its power and energy infrastructure, if Iran refuses to agree to a permanent cease-fire.

Contrary to the dire predictions from the mainstream media, President Trump has demonstrated that America can defend its interests and those of its allies without endless wars.

That is what an America First win looks like. The media just refuses to admit it.

Stay tuned.

It’s Really All About Perspective

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Over the past few years, the Coastal Carolina Taxpayers Association has hosted a number of critical thinking classes. It is always a good idea to brush up on critical thinking, particularly if you watch the mainstream media. At one of those classes we were shown the video below:

Sometimes we are so focused on one thing that we can’t see the whole picture. That is my feeling about recent statements by Pope Leo.

The Encyclopedia Britannica defines just war theory:

The four most important conditions are: (1) the war must be declared openly by a proper sovereign authority (e.g., the governing authority of the political community in question); (2) the war must have a just cause (e.g., defense of the common good or a response to grave injustice); (3) the warring state must have just intentions (i.e., it must wage the war for justice rather than for self-interest); and (4) the aim of the war must be the establishment of a just peace. Since the end of World War II it has become customary to add three other conditions: (1) there must be a reasonable chance of success; (2) force must be used as a last resort; and (3) the expected benefits of war must outweigh its anticipated costs.

I believe that the previous actions of the Iranian government combined with their quest for a nuclear weapon resulting an an attack by America and Israel meet the criteria for a just war. The Iranian government’s slaughter of their own people should also be considered. Evidently Pope Leo does not share this belief.

There are many things that Pope Leo could be commenting on at this moment–the slaughter of Christians in Nigeria, abortion in America, and the killing of Christians by Islamists. Somehow he is quiet on these things.

There are some other aspects of the Pope’s recent comments. Is he aware the God definitely answered the prayers of David in the Old Testament? Is he meddling in the American midterm elections? If so, why? The Democrat party stands for many things that are contrary to Catholic teaching. According to one of my sources, there is a money component to this related to the petrodollar and audits that may occur if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Keep your eyes open, and don’t forget how the Iranian people feel about the war–they want their country back!

Exactly What Was America Asking Of Iran?

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On Sunday, Breitbart posted an article about the failed negotiations with Iran. The article notes that there were six key items that America was asking for that were refused by Iran.

These are the six items:

1. Ending all uranium enrichment

2. Dismantling all major nuclear enrichment facilities

3. Allowing for the retrieval of highly enriched uranium

4. Accepting a broader peace, security, and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies

5. Ending funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis

6. Fully opening the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage

These are not unreasonable demands, but they are totally against Iran’s current and future plans. A nuclear Iran would have the perfect blackmail weapon to use against Europe and America. That is exactly what President Trump has avoided.

Breitbart reports:

Vance understood, upon entering the discussions, that there was potential for enormous distrust and misperception, given that the United States and Iran have had minimal interaction over the past 50 or so years, according to an official.

…While he left without a deal, Vance proposed what the official said was the best and final offer, which the vice president believes Iran should find acceptable.

Vance also found that Iran’s delegation had a fundamental misunderstanding of its lack of leverage when it entered the talks, per the official, who stressed that a deal cannot be reached as long as the Iranians believe they hold leverage they do not actually have. The misconception among Iranians about leverage factored into Vance leaving Pakistan after giving them the final offer, with the official noting that they need to understand the assumptions they had upon entering talks are not supported by realities on the ground.

Accepting this reality is key before they will be ready to entertain a serious offer, per the official.

The official stressed that it is up to the Iranians to accept the offer, and that Vance is hopeful that, after reflection in the days ahead, his counterparties will come to realize his final offer is in the best interest of both sides.

“We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it,” Vance notably said Saturday night, Eastern time.

The official noted to Breitbart News that the U.S. national security team has developed a plan to break Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz after discussions with President Donald Trump.

Taking Action In The Strait of Hormuz

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On Saturday, The Epoch Times posted an article about clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

Two U.S. missile destroyers started clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz on April 11 as peace talks kicked off between Washington and the Iranian regime, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed.
“Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon to encourage the free flow of commerce,” CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper said in a statement on Saturday.

The American ships included the USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112).

…Saturday’s confirmation about the mine clearing came hours after a United States government vessel was spotted entering the Strait of Hormuz, according to the ship-tracking intelligence platform Marinetraffic.com.

It’s not clear if this was related to CENTCOM’s mine-clearing mission.

As part of a series of posts on Saturday morning, Trump said countries are sending ships to the United States to “load up” with oil as the Iran War has heavily slowed down oil and gas operations in the Persian Gulf.

“We have more oil than the next two largest oil economies combined—and higher quality. We are waiting for you,” Trump wrote in a separate post on Saturday.
The updates from Trump came hours after Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and adviser and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan, to attend in-person negotiations with Iranian leadership amid a fragile two-week ceasefire.

The article concludes:

The talks, moderated by Pakistani leadership, were set to begin at around 11 a.m. ET on Saturday, a senior White House official confirmed to The Epoch Times.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X in Persian that the country’s delegation will guard its interests “with all its might” and “engage in negotiations with courage.”

Iranian state media, Press TV, reported that Iranian negotiating teams will only extend their stay in Islamabad if they think progress can be made.

I have stated before–I am not optimistic. Any peace agreement that takes away Iran’s nuclear program or forces Iran to stop funding terrorism is not going to be agreed on. As long as whatever ruling forces in Iran that are left can hold on to power and fund terrorism, they will.

Working Together To Protect The Strait Of Hormuz

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On Sunday, Red State posted an article about the plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

The article reports:

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte appeared on “Face the Nation” to talk about the Strait of Hormuz and the threats from Iran.

Rutte explained that the good news was that 22 countries were coming together to make sure that the Strait of Hormuz was free. He explained they’d always gotten things achieved before, as when President Donald Trump had gotten things like the NATO allies to pay their 5 percent share, which helped to provide for greater defense. He said he was “absolutely convinced” they could do the job when it came to Iran.

Most of the 22 are NATO countries. Others involved also included Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. “So we are now planning the military people and others amongst this group of 22 nations and with the U.S.,” Rutte said.

…Rutte followed Waltz (U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz) and spoke about Iran targeting Diego Garcia with two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM). The targeting of an island 2,500 miles away from Iran suggested that they could potentially hit European capitals and U.S. bases in Europe. Iran had previously denied having such capability, but Trump warned they had it.

The article concludes:

Rutte said they were looking at the facts to confirm the capability, but he said if this was true, that was more evidence that Trump’s decision to take out Iran’s ballistic missile capability and the nuclear capability was “crucial.” He explained that if Iran had the missile and nuclear capability, that would be an “existential threat” to everyone in the region and the stability of the world.

“I really hope the American people will be with him because he’s doing this to make the whole world safer,” Rutte said. That part really ticked off some Europeans on social media when he took up for Trump and said he was right. But Rutte has shown in the past he’s not afraid to stick up for what Trump is trying to achieve, just as he did when Trump was trying to get other NATO nations to pay their share of the defense costs.

Because of President Trump’s energy policies, American oil does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz. It is an indication of America’s generosity that it is willing to help the countries that are dependent on the Strait put together a coalition to keep the Strait open.

Better Late Than Never

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On Saturday, Breitbart posted an article about the efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

More than 20 nations spanning from Asia to Europe to the Gulf have expressed a “readiness to contribute” to the effort of opening up the Strait of Hormuz amid threats to ships by the Islamist regime in Iran.

They should contribute. They are the countries getting the oil. Only a fraction of the oil that America uses goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Almost all of the oil that goes through goes to Europe, China, and places other than America. The closing of the Strait does affect America because of the impact on world oil prices, but it does not create a fuel shortage in America.

The article notes:

In a joint statement released on Saturday morning, the nations of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Republic of Korea, Romania, Slovenia, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom condemned in the “strongest terms” the recent attacks by Iran against unarmed, civilian shipping vessels, its attacks on oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Gulf, and its move to shut down traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

“We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict. We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817,” the group of nations said.

“Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.”

“We emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations,” they continued.

“We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.”

The heavy lifting has already been done by America and Israel, but the people affected by the closing of the Strait need to be part of the actions needed to reopen the Strait.

Seems A Little Ungrateful

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It is very disheartening to some Americans that when the members of the  North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were asked to help secure the Strait of Hormuz they seemed disinterested. America has been the main funder and defender of NATO since it was formed, and the lack of support for America in ending Iranian terrorism was disappointing. However, things happen, and NATO members seem to be changing their tune.

On Wednesday, Red State reported:

As we reported, President Donald Trump asked our NATO allies and others to help contribute to a coalition of escort ships to help ensure safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz.

But he was rebuffed by some of the NATO allies, like Germany, who said that they didn’t start the military action, so why should they be involved? These are some of the same folks who thought the United States should pay endlessly for Ukraine, despite that not being “our war.’

They had a bit of a karmic wake-up call when the hotel where their European Union Advisory Mission is housed was hit by an Iran-backed drone in Baghdad.

But now Trump is also calling their bluff, because the bottom line is that the U.S. ships very little through the Strait — it’s far more important to others. So Trump posted on Truth Social that if allies want to play the weak-kneed weasel game, maybe the U.S. should just not provide any escorts, and just let the countries that use it be responsible for it.

The article notes:

“I have been in contact with many allies,” Rutte (NATO SecGen Mark Rutte) said during a NATO exercise in Norway.

“We all agree, of course, that Strait has to open up again. And what I know is that allies are working together, discussing how to do that, what is the best way to do it. They’re working on that collectively to find a way forward.”

Rutte also explained the ballistic missile and nuclear capability had been “severely degraded.”

Gee, what happened to “We didn’t start it”? Sounds like Trump shamed them into movement. Rutte gets Trump, so he knows they have to pony up.

Others are showing up some of our European allies. As we reported, India is providing warships to protect their own ships; it is one of the biggest shippers through the Strait, along with China.

…The United Arab Emirates may join a U.S.-led effort to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran all but shut the vital waterway to ships as Tehran wages war with Israel and ‌the United States, a senior Emirati official said on Tuesday.

Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said talks were ongoing and no formal plan had been agreed, but that “big countries” in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe bore responsibility for ensuring the flow of trade and energy.

Iran has made a number of strategic mistakes during this war. One of those mistakes was attacking their neighbors who were attempting to remain neutral. I see good things in the future for the people of Iran, but not so good things in the future for the current leaders of Iran.

This Is Going To Get Interesting

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On Saturday, The Conservative Treehouse posted an article about the American attack on Kharg Island, a small coral island in Iran in the northern Persian Gulf.

The article reports:

Kharg Island is a small coral island in Iran in the northern Persian Gulf. It is 34 miles (55 km) northwest of the port of Bushehr and vital to Iran’s oil industry.

The oil processing facilities at Kharg Island are a foundational component of Iran’s economy. Roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude is processed at Kharg Island, and any disruption to its oil processing could cripple Iran’s economy.

All military targets on the Island were destroyed in the attack, but the oil infrastructure on the Island was left intact.

The article includes President Trump’s statement:

“Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision.”

“During my First Term, and currently, I rebuilt our Military into the Most Lethal, Powerful, and Effective Force, by far, anywhere in the World. Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it! Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East or, for that matter, the World! Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

Also on Saturday, John Hinderaker reported at Power Line Blog that the Strait of Hormuz is now open.

The statement from Iran says:

It is only closed to the tankers and ships belong[ing] to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies. Others are free to pass,” Araghchi (Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi) told MS NOW.

I don’t think that is going to be acceptable.

If The Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed, Who Loses?

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On Monday, CNBC posted an article about Iran’s Parliament voting to block the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty percent of the world’s oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

  • Should Iran follow through on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, it could alienate its neighbors and trade partners.
  • But the possibility of a closure of the strait is low, experts said, despite Tehran’s rhetoric around closing the strait.
  • A closure would provoke Iran’s markets in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports.

The article continues:

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that Iran had shipped 1.5 million barrels per day via the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter of 2025.

Furthermore, a closure would also provoke Iran’s market in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports.

“So very, very little to be achieved, and a lot of self inflicted harm that Iran could do” Hari said.

Her view is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global head of policy research at advisory firm Signum Global Advisors.

Iran will not want to antagonize China, he said, adding that disrupting supplies will also “put a target” on the country’s own oil production, export infrastructure, and regime “at a time when there is little reason to doubt U.S. and Israeli resolve in being ‘trigger-happy.’”

Clayton Seigle, senior fellow for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that as China is “very dependent” on oil flows from the Gulf, not just Iran, “its national security interest really would value stabilization of the situation and a de-escalation enabling safe flows of oil and gas through the strait.”

Iran does not need to alienate anyone right now. I am sure many of the Middle Eastern countries are breathing a sigh of relief knowing that Iran at the moment does not have nuclear capability.

Whoops

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MSN is reporting today that 19 sailors were killed and 15 others wounded when an Iranian warship accidentally fired upon another warship during a training exercise.

The article reports:

The incident took place during training in the Gulf of Oman, a sensitive waterway that connects to the Strait of Hormuz through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Iran regularly conducts exercises in the area.

The frigate Jamaran fired at a training target released by a support ship, the Konarak. However, the support ship stayed too close to the target and was hit, state broadcaster IRIB said.

“The incident took place in the perimeter of Iran’s southern Bandar-e Jask port on the Gulf of Oman during Iranian Navy drills on Sunday afternoon, in which 19 sailors were killed and 15 others were injured,” state TV said, quoting the navy.

Fars news agency quoted an unidentified military official as denying some Iranian media reports that the Konarak had sunk. The navy statement said investigations were undergoing regarding the cause of the incident, student news agency ISNA said.

IRIB said the Dutch-made Konarak vessel, which was purchased before Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, had been overhauled in 2018, and is equipped with four cruise missiles.

My sympathies to the families impacted, but not to the government that made this possible.

Foreign Policy Wisdom

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The Center For Security Policy posted the following Secure Freedom Minute on July 26:

In recent days, fast-boats of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have seized oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.  This action has followed a series of other direct and indirect Iranian provocations, including attacks on shipping, Saudi oil infrastructure and U.S. assets in Iraq.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, a pair of Chinese long-range bombers joined two of their Russian counterparts and one of the Kremlin’s command-and-control aircraft in conducting a deliberate provocation in the airspace over islands claimed by South Korea and Japan. An extraordinary three hundred warning shots were fired in two separate instances before the intruders departed the area.

Make no mistake: These are probing actions designed to test the readiness and resolve of the United States and its allies. As with any bully, a failure to demonstrate both will result in more aggression worldwide.

This is a lesson we should have learned a long time ago.

Dealing With A Country Whose Economy Is Collapsing Is Not Unlike Dealing With A Cornered Animal

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The sanctions placed on Iran by the United States have created severe economic problems for the country. The people of the country are being hurt by the sanctions, the rules are still doing quite well due to black market dealings. A rebellion is brewing. The rebellion will probably be successful if the sanctions continue. The rulers of Iran know that and are trying almost anything to make the sanctions go away. Thus, the recent seizure of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

One America News posted an article today with the headline, “Britain weighs response to Iran Gulf crisis with few good options.”

The article reports:

Britain was weighing its next moves in the Gulf tanker crisis on Sunday, with few good options apparent as a recording emerged showing that the Iranian military defied a British warship when it boarded and seized a ship three days ago.

Prime Minister Theresa May’s office said she would chair a meeting of Britain’s COBR emergency response committee on Monday morning to discuss the crisis.

Little clue has been given by Britain on how it plans to respond after Iranian Revolutionary Guards rappelled from helicopters and seized the Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday in apparent retaliation for the British capture of an Iranian tanker two weeks earlier.

Footage obtained by Reuters from an Iranian news agency on Sunday showed the tanker docked in an Iranian port — with Iran’s flag now hoisted atop.

The British government is expected to announce its next steps in a speech to parliament on Monday. But experts on the region say there are few obvious steps London can take at a time when the United States has already imposed the maximum possible economic sanctions, banning all Iranian oil exports worldwide.

“We rant and rave and we shout at the ambassador and we hope it all goes away,” said Tim Ripley, a British defense expert who writes about the Gulf for Jane’s Defence Weekly.

“I don’t see at this point in time us being able to offer a concession that can resolve the crisis. Providing security and escort for future ships is a different matter.”

A day after calling the Iranian action a “hostile act”, top British officials kept comparatively quiet on Sunday, making clear that they had yet to settle on a response.

“We are going to be looking at a series of options,” junior defense minister Tobias Ellwood told Sky News. “We will be speaking with our colleagues, our international allies, to see what can actually be done.

“Our first and most important responsibility is to make sure we get a solution to the issue to do with the current ship, make sure other British-flagged ships are safe to operate in these waters and then look at the wider picture.”

Seizing a ship in international waters is an act of war. The question is, “What are the western countries going to do about it?” War with Iran is not really a good idea–it’s what the rulers want–feeling that a war would unite the country. We have in the past used military escorts through the Straits of Hormuz. I suspect we will be doing so again. The good news is that America is energy independent and can help dilute the impact of the difficulties in getting oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, I am hoping we have some cyber experts that could make the life of the Iranian rulers a little more difficult.

Trivial Pursuit By The Press Corps

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We have a quickly changing international situation brewing with the seizure of ships by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Decisions made in the White House could have major consequences in the lives of all Americans. Hopefully the right decisions will be made, but the situation is worth everyone’s attention. But I guess the Press Corps has other things on its mind.

Yesterday The Washington Examiner reported that shortly after receiving news that two tankers had been seized by the Iranians, the President was talking to the Press Corps.

The article reports:

President Trump was asked if he was “in favor of banning plastic straws” by a reporter on Friday afternoon, just a short time after an Iranian provocation in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Are you in favor of banning plastic straws?” a reporter asked the president outside the White House.

“I do think we have bigger problems than plastic straws. You know, it’s interesting about plastic straws. So you have a little straw, but what about the plates, the wrappers, and everything else that are much bigger and they’re made of the same material? So the straws are interesting, everybody focuses on the straws, there’s a lot of other things to focus on. It’s an interesting question.”

Evidently there was some context for the question:

“Trump Straws” went on sale on the Trump campaign website on Thursday. The 10-pack of reusable red straws are laser engraved with “Trump” on them, and the description reads, “Liberal paper straws don’t work. STAND WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP and buy your pack of recyclable straws today.”

I don’t know whether I would have been so gracious as to answer the question. It seems as if the Press Corps is playing Trivial Pursuit and ignoring the major news around them.

Unfortunately This Is Going To Require A Response

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Fox News is reporting today that two tankers flying British flags have been seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

The article reports:

Fox News has learned that a second Liberian tanker operated by a British company was also seized by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and was seen on maritime tracking services making a turn, headed towards Iran.

President Trump said Friday that Iran is “nothing but trouble” and that “we heard one, we heard two,” tankers were seized.

Iran seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz earlier Friday amid growing tensions in the region.

The Stena Impero, which has a crew of 23 onboard, “was approached by unidentified small crafts and a helicopter during transit of the Strait of Hormuz while the vessel was in international waters,” Stena Bulk, the shipping company that owns the vessel, said in a statement. “We are presently unable to contact the vessel which is now heading north towards Iran.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard forces, in a statement on their website, say the ship was seized for “non-compliance with international maritime laws and regulations” and is being brought to an unnamed Iranian port, according to the Associated Press.

Websites tracking the ship’s path show it turning sharply in the direction of Iran’s Qeshm Island, instead of its intended destination of Saudi Arabia.

“We are urgently seeking further information and assessing the situation following reports of an incident in the Gulf,” a U.K. government spokesperson told Fox News.

In July 2018 Reuters posted the following:

With a third of the world’s sea-borne oil passing through it every day, the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic artery linking Middle East crude producers to key markets in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and beyond.

That dynamic has changed slightly due to the fact that America now exports more crude oil than they import. The countries that will be hurt by problems in the Strait of Hormuz will be Europe, India, and China. I am sure that America will be willing to help Europe, Russia will also increase her oil production. The price of oil will rise sharply, but it is doubtful that the Strait will remain closed.

The latest report that I have heard is that there are actually three tankers that have been seized. This is an international problem and should be handled by the international community in unison.

Making America Energy Independent

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There are a lot of entities that have a vested interest in preventing America from becoming energy independent. The obvious ones are OPEC and the Soviet Union. When you look at the money behind the anti-pipeline and anti-fracking movements, you will see a lot of Saudi Arabian money and a lot of Russian money. Why? Some scientists believe that the oil and natural gas resources in America reachable by fracking are larger than the oil resources in the Middle East. Fracking will quickly end OPEC’s monopoly on the world’s oil supply. It will also prevent the possibility of Iran at some point blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Thirty percent of the world’s oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Imagine the disruption of the world’s oil supply if that Strait was blocked. Right now, Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe. The pipelines run from Russia to Europe. Russia has been known to threaten Europe with shutting down the pipeline if Europe does not comply with Russia’s wishes. American oil and natural gas would also alleviate that threat. The environmentalists who are blocking the development of America’s fossil fuel reserves are serving as useful idiots for OPEC and the Russians. The elevated status these objectors were given during the Obama Administration is about to end.

The Daily Caller is reporting today that the Trump Administration is getting ready to open up new areas to offshore oil and gas drilling.

The article reports:

Industry sources familiar with the matter told Platts an executive order is in the works to rewind Obama’s decision to make large swaths of the Arctic and Atlantic off-limits to oil and gas drilling.

Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke told industry representatives the new drilling plan would be signed soon, according to Bloomberg. However, he gave few details on what the order could include.

The Department of the Interior’s (DOI) new five-year offshore drilling plan could take years to develop and would replace the Obama administration’s five-year plan finalized in November.

Like it or not, fossil fuel fuels the world’s economy. Until the free market is allowed to work to develop a reliable source of green energy, fossil fuel will continue in that role. The good news is that natural gas is an extremely clean-burning fossil fuel, and America has plenty of that.

The article concludes:

Trump is expected to sign the order by the end of April, and it’s sure to draw legal challenges from environmentalists who’ve argued Obama’s indefinite ban on Arctic and Atlantic drilling can’t be overturned.

Obama used Section 12(a) of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, a 1953 law governing offshore drilling, in an unprecedented way, blocking leases in the Atlantic Ocean and the Chukchi and Beaufort seas.

Obama’s order took 125 million acres in Arctic seas and four million acres in the Atlantic Ocean out of future lease sales indefinitely. Supporters said the former president’s actions “permanently” banned drilling in those regions.

But the drilling ban is only permanent if Congress doesn’t change the law or Trump doesn’t move to test it in court. Past presidents have reduced the size of Section 12(a) designations but never fully repealed them.

The U.S.-held portion of the Arctic Ocean is estimated to hold 27 billion barrels of oil and 132 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The oil and gas industry has struggled to access these vast energy reserves but new discoveries in northern Alaska have reinvigorated some interest in the region.

Energy independence is both a matter of national security and economic success. Cheap fuel prices will bring industry back to America. American labor costs may be higher than the almost-slave labor that exists in some countries, but American quality control standards are also high. Lowering energy costs (and lowering corporate tax rates) will be a positive step toward reviving an American economy that has not been doing well in recent years.

We Might Have To Stand Up To This Bully

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Reuters is reporting today that an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard vessel pointed its weapon at a U.S. military helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Recently there have been a series of similar incidents, but this is the first such incident since the election of Donald Trump.

The article reports:

The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the incident took place when a Navy MH-60 helicopter flew within half a mile (0.8 km) of two Iranian vessels in international waters. One of the vessels pointed a weapon at the helicopter, the U.S. officials said.

“The behavior by our standards is provocative and could be seen as an escalation,” the officials said. At no point did the crew of the helicopter feel threatened, they added.

Years of mutual animosity eased when Washington lifted sanctions on Tehran in January after a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But serious differences still remain over Iran’s ballistic missile program, and over conflicts in Syria and Iraq.

President Obama has chosen to overlook bad behavior on the part of the Iranians–even thanking them for the return of sailors they took prisoner. President Obama has even loosened the economic sanctions on Iran, something I am hoping President Trump will undo.

Ronald Reagan got it right when he advocated for ‘peace through strength.’ Weakness invites war–it does not prevent it.

 

While We Are Preparing To Sign A Nuclear Arms Treaty…

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Yahoo News is reporting today that Iran has seized the Maersk Tigris cargo ship in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday the U.K. Telegraph carried the story.

The Telegraph reports:

The vessel had apparently declined to change course and steer towards the Iranian coast. Warning shots were then fired across the bridge and the ship was boarded by personnel from the naval wing of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and steered towards the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

The container ship was travelling from Jeddah in Saudi Arabia to the port of Jebel Ali in Dubai. It was flying the flag of the Marshall Islands and chartered by Rickmers Ship Management, a company based in Hamburg. The vessel is owned by Maersk, the Danish shipping and trading conglomerate.

…Fars, the semi-official Iranian news agency, described the ship as a “trade vessel” which had been “seized by the Iranian navy” at the request of the country’s Ports and Maritime Authority.

Fars added: “The ship was seized after a relevant court order was issued for its confiscation.” No further explanation for Iran’s actions was offered.

The idea of simply seizing the ship and the innocent people aboard the ship does not seem like the appropriate response to the court action.

Meanwhile, Yahoo News reports:

Iran’s foreign minister told a New York City audience on Wednesday that Tehran respects freedom of navigation in the Gulf, a day after Iranian patrol boats seized a Danish container ship in one of the world’s busiest oil shipping lanes.

“The Persian Gulf is our lifeline … We will respect international navigation,” Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said during a discussion hosted by New York University’s Center on International Cooperation and the think tank New America. “For us, freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf is a must.”

This doesn’t sound like freedom of navigation.

Yahoo News reports:

Maersk said in a statement that it was in communication with the Danish Foreign Ministry and trying to ascertain why the Maersk Tigris had been diverted.

Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization said a court had ordered the ship seized after ruling against Maersk Line in a case about debts brought by Pars Talaie, an Iranian company.

Zarif told the audience on Wednesday that Maersk was required to pay damages on the basis of a court order. He said the legal proceedings had been going on for some 14 years.

“Simply, our naval forces implemented the decision of the court,” Zarif said in New York, characterizing Maersk’s actions as “peculiar.”

Tasnim, an Iranian news agency, quoted a Pars Talaie lawyer as saying the debt involved a cargo that Pars Talaie had hired Maersk to take from the Iranian port of Abadan to Dubai more than a decade ago but which never arrived.

This is another example of what happens when America has a weak President. There were American warships in the area, but Iran had no reason to fear them. This is also an example of the lawlessness of Iran.

Training Exercise In The Middle East

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The U. K. Telegraph posted a story yesterday stating:

Battleships, aircraft carriers, minesweepers and submarines from 25 nations are converging on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented show of force as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war.

Approximately 35 percent of the world’s oil that is transported by sea travels through the Strait of Hormuz (approximately 18 million barrels of oil every day). The theory is that if Iran is attacked, it will immediately move to close the Strait. America will be able to get some of its oil from Canada, but Europe will be very hard hit if the Straits are closed. Closing the Straits would have a devastating impact on the economy of the entire world.

The article reports:

In preparation for any pre-emptive or retaliatory action by Iran, warships from more than 25 countries, including the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will today begin an annual 12-day exercise.

The article presents a rather detailed picture of the operation and what it is designed to prevent.

There are differing opinions as to when and if Israel will attack Iran. Obviously, Israel cannot afford to let Iran produce a working nuclear weapon–even if Iran chose not to use the weapon against Israel (a major question in the discussion), the possession of nuclear weapons by Iran would seriously change the balance of power in the Middle East. A Shiite nation, Iran, would have a bomb to use against the Sunni nations in the area (such as Saudi Arabia). Even though much of the Middle East unites against the west, the tribal and religious splits in the region are very important. Iran going nuclear could result in turmoil in the Middle East that has nothing to do with either the United States or Israel.

It is my personal opinion that if Israel feels that Mitt Romney is going to be elected, they will not attack Iran until after the Presidential election because they feel that he will aid them in their effort. If the Israeli government feels that President Obama is going to be re-elected, they probably will attack before the election.

No attack on another country is ever good, but Iran going nuclear is worse.

 

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A Game Of Chicken In The Straits Of Hormuz

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Townhall.com posted an Associated Press report on recent tensions in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is conducting military exercises in the Straits supposedly practicing closing the Straits, which the Iranians have threatened to do if Western countries impose economic sanctions because of Iran’s nuclear program. America has stated that it will not tolerate any disruptions to the Straits. Excuse my skepticism, but based on how America has handled the entire nuclear program in Iran, I am not sure how seriously America’s statement will be taken.

The article reports:

The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, and President Barack Obama has said he will sign it despite his misgivings. Critics warn it could impose hardships on U.S. allies and drive up oil prices.

The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran’s central bank. European and Asian nations import Iranian oil and use its central bank for the transactions.

Iran is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.

The interesting part of the above statement is that Iran relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues. The question is simple–“Would Iran be willing to cut off 80 percent of its revenue in order to continue its nuclear program?” Are we leading up to a situation similar to what we had in Iraq’s ‘food for oil’ program, where the leaders on the country will live very well and the people will starve?

I am making no bets on who will blink first.

 

 

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