Tag Archives: inflation rate

Goods News For The America Economy

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On Thursday, The Epoch Times posted an article about the unemployment numbers released for last week. Some of the economic statistics for October and November have not been released because of the government shutdown. I am not sure if they are going to be released.

The article reports:

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits declined to the lowest level in more than three years, new Department of Labor data released on Dec. 4 show.

For the week ending Nov. 29, initial jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 191,000, marking the fourth consecutive weekly drop.

Economists had penciled in a reading of 220,000.

Notice how the economists’ estimates are always more negative than the actual figures when a Republican is in office.

The article notes:

But while slowing layoffs and declining jobless claims have been positive signs, the futures market overwhelmingly expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates when monetary policymakers convene their two-day policy meeting next week.

Minutes from the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting reveal a divergence in views of where monetary policy is headed. Commentary from central bank officials also suggests different assessments of the U.S. economy.

“From late spring through June, the soft data, including anecdotes from business contacts, suggested the labor market was in a ‘no hire, no fire’ equilibrium,” Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said in a speech last month. “Firms repeatedly said they were holding off on hiring for a variety of reasons.”

Waller, considered a top contender to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell next year, supports a quarter-point rate cut to the benchmark federal funds rate.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has expressed skepticism over further rate cuts, warning of high inflation.

“I remain concerned about high inflation and believe policy should be leaning against it,” Hammack said at a Nov. 6 Economic Club of New York event.

The headline annual inflation rate presently sits at 3 percent. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditure price index—is at 2.7 percent.

Somehow inflation was not a worry when the rates were cut during the Biden administration. Considering how much the rate of inflation has dropped, I think it is time to cut the rates and let the housing market loose.

The Impact Of The Tariffs

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On Wednesday, The American Thinker posted an article about the tariffs President Trump has put in place since he took office.

The article reports:

Far from igniting the inflationary firestorm predicted by his critics, Trump’s sweeping tariffs — including a 10% universal import duty and targeted hikes on 90 nations — have coincided with the lowest inflation rate since early 2021.

In a striking reversal of the narrative pushed by many economists, The Economist—a publication not known for its support of Trump’s policies — published a June 5 article acknowledging the muted inflationary effect of the tariff wave. The magazine pointed to hard data: in April, year-over-year inflation cooled to just 2.3%, far below the 0.8-point spike predicted by a University of Chicago survey of 48 economists.

Instead of tariff-fueled price hikes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that prices for heavily impacted goods like clothing and new cars actually declined.

Car prices dropped by 0.5% from March to April, despite 25% tariffs on auto imports going into effect on April 3. Clothing prices remained flat through March — even as progressive economists sounded alarms. Far from passing on costs, many retailers and foreign producers appeared to absorb them, underscoring the competitive nature of global commerce in a post-pandemic landscape.

Even groceries — arguably the most politically sensitive prices of all — held steady through May, despite new duties on Canadian produce and other perishables. Consumers, in short, weren’t being punished at the checkout line.

Of course, none of this was supposed to happen.

The article concludes:

As the trade deficit narrows and the factory floors hum a little louder, it’s increasingly clear: this was no reckless gamble. It was strategy. And it’s working.

While some still mutter darkly about future price spikes, the facts on the ground are sobering — and for Trump’s critics, humbling. Inflation remains tame, shelves are stocked, and voters aren’t paying more to put dinner on the table. The tariffs are not only holding; they’re delivering.

This is what happens when a businessman instead of a politician becomes President. Can you imagine how much celebrating there would be in newsrooms if a Democrat had accomplished even half of what President Trump has accomplished? I am hoping that as Americans begin to realize the economic gifts they have received in the past six months, they will at least vote to keep control of Congress in the hands of the Republicans. That is the only way this success will continue.

Every Little Bit Helps

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On Wednesday, CNBC reported that the inflation rate went down in February.

The article reports:

  • The consumer price index for both all-items and core increased 0.2% in February, slightly below expectations.
  • On an annual basis, headline inflation was at 2.8%, while core was at 3.1%. Both also were 0.1 percentage point below the Wall Street consensus and the previous month’s levels.
  • The report provided some relief as consumers and businesses worry about the looming impact tariffs might have on inflation

The article concludes:

“The February CPI (Consumer Price Index) release showed further signs of progress on underlying inflation, with the pace of price increases moderating after January’s strong release,” said Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “While the Fed is still likely to remain on hold at this month’s meeting, the combination of easing inflationary pressures and rising downside risks to growth suggest that the Fed is moving closer to continuing its easing cycle.”

The Fed meets next week and is widely expected to hold its key borrowing rate in a target range between 4.25%-4.5%.

Economic growth is trending negative in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of incoming data. The measure has pegged Q1 growth at a 2.4% decline, which would be the first negative growth quarter in three years.

I would like to remind everyone that even though President Trump has been ‘flooding the zone,’ we are only less than two months into the Trump presidency. Gas prices are going down and egg prices are going down. Both of those are good things. As far other economic new is concerned, I don’t necessarily believe the initial figures when they come out. Remember the revisions on job creation during the Biden administration. The people who told those lies may still be working for their government, and I suspect their goal is not to make President Trump look good.

The Federal Reserve has not been America’s friend for a long time. It didn’t even start out that way. If you read The Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin, you will find out that the true purpose of the Federal Reserve was to concentrate America’s wealth among the New York City banks. They should lower interest rates slightly, but I doubt they will.

Does He Even Believe This?

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On Sunday, The Daily Caller posted an article about Senator Schumer’s explanation of the reason for the defeat of so many Democrats in November’s election.

The article reports:

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sunday that voters “didn’t realize how much” the Democratic Party had done for them over the last four years heading into November’s elections, claiming it played a key role in his party’s demise.

President-elect Donald Trump scored a historic win for Republicans in November, winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote, while Vice President Kamala Harris failed to even match the numbers President Joe Biden had received in 2020. On “Meet the Press,” NBC host Kristen Welker questioned Schumer about his thoughts on the “root cause” of the Democrats’ loss, noting that Democratic strategist James Carville had blamed the state of the economy under the Biden-Harris administration.

“I told my caucus and I’ll say it here, too. We should regard this election, certainly it was a loss, but it’s also a challenge, and we did some things right against very severe headwinds. We kept four of those seven contested Democratic seats, but we did some things wrong and we have to look in the mirror and see what we did wrong,” Schumer said.

“Then there’s some things we didn’t do that we should have done. One of the things we have to do is we must focus on the working families of America,” Schumer added. “We believe in them and we passed all kinds of legislation that helped them with the infrastructure bill which made our economy stronger and employed lots of people.”

Meanwhile, back in reality, on December 22, 2024, The Center Square reported:

President Joe Biden is only a few weeks away from the end of his time in office, and one key part of his legacy is undeniable: inflation.

Biden has battled inflation from the start, but critics say he helped fuel it with trillions of dollars in deficit spending during his four years in office. Federal debt spending is offset in part by printing money, which increases inflation.

Biden has boasted bringing inflation rates down from about 9% earlier in his term to roughly 2.5% currently.

While the rate of inflation has slowed, that doesn’t mean prices have decreased. In fact, they continue rising, albeit slower than earlier in his term.

The federal government released a a key inflation marker Friday, its Personal Consumption Expenditure index, which rose 2.4% last month, a bit less than expected.

Overall, though, prices have risen more than 20% since Biden took office.

It really is the economy, stupid.

Learning From The Past

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On Friday, The Daily Caller posted an article about the latest economic numbers released by the Biden administration. On the surface, they look wonderful. At closer examination, not so much.

The article reports:

The economy expanded by 2.8% from July to September, according to Commerce Department figures. The growth is said to be driven by consumer spending, also up 3.7% during this time. Job gains actually slowed to the lowest point since 2020, a sharp decline from 254,000 in September to just 12,000 in October, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Yet the regime has plenty of excuses — storms and strikes — and touts how the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Meanwhile the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target, meaning it could lower interest rates as soon as next week. All told, things are looking alright — at least on the surface.

“Consumers are spending. Inflation is cooling. And the U.S. economy looks as strong as ever,” The New York Times giddily ledes with.

When the corporate media and financial regulators are on the same page, there’s always an instinctual reason to be distrustful. During the Biden-Harris administration, all the Very Smart People running the U.S. economy have made a habit of quietly revising their optimistic numbers after they come out. After all, it’s only the initial headlines that count.

The article includes the following screenshot:

There’s some history here–in the Biden administration (and possibly in previous administrations), the initial numbers are not always accurate.

The article concludes:

This might even be an understatement; the downward revisions on jobs numbers have been nothing short of egregious this year. The revised figures between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs added than initially reported. But the new figures did not trickle out until August 2024, at which point it was safe for CNN to admit that job growth was “far weaker” than many thought. The pattern has continued throughout the year as well, with the last two months’ figures being revised significantly downward after their initial release. August figures were revised down by more than half, from a gain of 159,000 to just 78,000. September was less drastic, but still dropped by 31,000 jobs after revision. With just a measly 12,000 jobs added last month, there’s hardly any room to revise without the figure turning negative. Only time will tell.

Downward revisions are also an issue in growth figures, albeit to a lesser degree. Already poor Q1 2024 growth rates of 1.6% were quietly revised to a sluggish 1.3% at the end of May.

It’s an undeniable pattern. We get these awesome economic releases, a barrage of friendly headlines and then months later quiet updates that dramatically alter the actual, final number. Either all the Very Smart People are much worse at this than they used to be, or there’s some shady politicking at play. With the numbers coming days before an extremely tight election, skepticism toward the latter is certainly warranted. Either way, there’s good reason to think these new economic numbers will go down. It’s only a matter of when.

If the people reporting these numbers are that far off, maybe we need new people reporting them.