• Should Iran follow through on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, it could alienate its neighbors and trade partners.
• But the possibility of a closure of the strait is low, experts said, despite Tehran’s rhetoric around closing the strait.
• A closure would provoke Iran’s markets in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports.

The article continues:

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that Iran had shipped 1.5 million barrels per day via the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter of 2025.

Furthermore, a closure would also provoke Iran’s market in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports.

“So very, very little to be achieved, and a lot of self inflicted harm that Iran could do” Hari said.

Her view is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global head of policy research at advisory firm Signum Global Advisors.

Iran will not want to antagonize China, he said, adding that disrupting supplies will also “put a target” on the country’s own oil production, export infrastructure, and regime “at a time when there is little reason to doubt U.S. and Israeli resolve in being ‘trigger-happy.’”

Clayton Seigle, senior fellow for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that as China is “very dependent” on oil flows from the Gulf, not just Iran, “its national security interest really would value stabilization of the situation and a de-escalation enabling safe flows of oil and gas through the strait.”

Iran does not need to alienate anyone right now. I am sure many of the Middle Eastern countries are breathing a sigh of relief knowing that Iran at the moment does not have nuclear capability.