Tag Archives: Commerce Department

Why President Trump Is Asking For A New Census

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On Thursday, The Federalist posted an article explaining the need for a new census and the reason President Trump is asking that it be done before the mid-term elections.

The article reports:

President Donald Trump announced Thursday he instructed the Commerce Department to begin working on a census that does not include illegal aliens. It’s a long-overdue correction to a system that Democrats have exploited for years to tip the balance of power in Washington.

“I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024. People who are in our country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump said.

Trump previously signed a memo in 2020 that barred illegal aliens from being counted in the census. The memo was challenged and made its way to the Supreme Court, which ultimately did not rule on the merits as to whether all residents — regardless of their legal status — must be counted and if the president has the authority to exclude nonresidents.

The high court however did rule in the 1976 decision Mathews v. Diaz, a case regarding the Social Security Act, that while illegal immigrants are entitled to due process protections under the Fifth and 14th Amendments, they are not entitled to the benefits of citizenship. 

The article concludes:

NBC News’ Alexandra Marquez says not counting illegal aliens would be “contrary to the Constitution.”

But that is a suspect conclusion drawn by the propaganda press. The Framers likely would not support the position that illegal aliens who invaded the nation should be counted in apportionment to determine representation. In fact, prior to the ratification of the Constitution, most northern states advocated for no slaves to be counted in the apportionment proceedings so that slaveholding states, some of which had slave populations as high as 43 percent of their total residents, would not have an unfair amount of representation compared to their actual voting weight.

Yet, we’re supposed to believe Axios, NBC News, and NPR that illegal aliens would have been counted in the census?

Counting illegal alien in the census skews congressional apportionment and the electoral college — and the American citizen pays the price in diluted representation and misallocated resources.

I would like to see some of the people who support rights reserved for American citizens being bestowed on illegal aliens go to another country and try to claim the rights of that country’s citizens. It would be interesting to see what happens next.

Good News About The American Economy

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On Wednesday, CNBC reported that retail sales were up during the month of March.

The article reports:

Points
  • The advanced estimate of retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% on the month, better than the 1.2% Dow Jones estimate and higher than the 0.2% increase in February.
  • Excluding autos, the numbers also were stronger than expected, with sales up 0.5% compared with the 0.3% forecast.

Consumer spending was stronger than expected in March as demand remained high despite declining sentiment, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The advanced estimate of retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% on the month, better than the 1.2% Dow Jones estimate and higher than the 0.2% increase in February. The year-over-year rise was 4.6%, according to numbers adjusted for seasonality but not prices, while the monthly increase was the biggest since January 2023.

Excluding autos, the numbers also were stronger than expected, with sales up 0.5% compared with the 0.3% forecast. Economists expected the auto sales number to jump as buyers tried to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs.

Motor vehicle and parts dealers reported a surge of 5.3% in sales.

The reading points to spending holding strong despite the crosscurrents of looming tariffs and expectations that the economy is weakening.

Obviously, part of the increase is due to the fear that as the tariffs kick in, prices will increase. However, it does indicate that Americans have enough trust in the future to buy things.

The article concludes:

The retail report counters multiple recent sentiment readings that show widespread fear that Trump’s tariffs will sink the economy into recession and spike prices. Last week, the closely watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey posted its second-lowest reading ever and expectations for one-year inflation were the highest since 1981.

Aside from the big move in auto-related sales, sporting goods, hobby and music stores saw a 2.4% increase, while building material and garden stores rose 3.3%. Food service and drinking places were up 1.8%, while gasoline stations reported a 2.5% decline as prices fell during the month.

As gas prices go down, consumers have more money to spend. That also may be part of the increase in retail sales.

Good Economic News

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On Wednesday, Breitbart posted an article reporting some economic news that looks good for the direction of the American economy.

The article reports:

Orders for durable goods rose far above expectations in February, climbing 0.9 percent to $289.3 billion, according to the Commerce Department’s report released Wednesday.

Economists had forecast a 1.0 percent decline, but instead, businesses continued to invest heavily in big-ticket items, particularly automobiles, computers, and machinery.

Even excluding transportation, which can be volatile due to large aircraft orders, new orders increased by 0.7 percent, exceeding the forecast of a 0.3 percent gain. The strength of the overall durable goods orders report is further demonstrated by robust gains in key categories.

Auto orders were notably strong, with orders for motor vehicles and parts rising 4.0 percent. Shipments of motor vehicles and parts also surged by 3.9 percent, indicating strong demand from consumers and businesses alike.

The decline of 0.3 percent in core capital goods orders—non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft—appears to be a pullback following the strong 0.9 percent gain in January. This decline also undermines claims that businesses are rushing to buy equipment ahead of potential tariffs. Even with February’s decline, core capital goods orders are still up by 7.3 percent year-to-date, indicating that business investment remains robust.

The article concludes:

The durable goods report is the latest piece of so-called “hard data” that indicate actual economic activity continues to expand despite “soft data”—such as consumer and business surveys—indicating anxiety over policy uncertainty and tariffs. Earlier this week, the Commerce Department reported new home sales rose solidly and inventories of new houses for sale increased. Last week, the Federal Reserve said industrial output climbed 0.7 percent in February, including a 0.9 percent rise in manufacturing output.

We have a businessman in the White House–not a professional politician. It makes a difference.

 

Learning From The Past

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On Friday, The Daily Caller posted an article about the latest economic numbers released by the Biden administration. On the surface, they look wonderful. At closer examination, not so much.

The article reports:

The economy expanded by 2.8% from July to September, according to Commerce Department figures. The growth is said to be driven by consumer spending, also up 3.7% during this time. Job gains actually slowed to the lowest point since 2020, a sharp decline from 254,000 in September to just 12,000 in October, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Yet the regime has plenty of excuses — storms and strikes — and touts how the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Meanwhile the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target, meaning it could lower interest rates as soon as next week. All told, things are looking alright — at least on the surface.

“Consumers are spending. Inflation is cooling. And the U.S. economy looks as strong as ever,” The New York Times giddily ledes with.

When the corporate media and financial regulators are on the same page, there’s always an instinctual reason to be distrustful. During the Biden-Harris administration, all the Very Smart People running the U.S. economy have made a habit of quietly revising their optimistic numbers after they come out. After all, it’s only the initial headlines that count.

The article includes the following screenshot:

There’s some history here–in the Biden administration (and possibly in previous administrations), the initial numbers are not always accurate.

The article concludes:

This might even be an understatement; the downward revisions on jobs numbers have been nothing short of egregious this year. The revised figures between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs added than initially reported. But the new figures did not trickle out until August 2024, at which point it was safe for CNN to admit that job growth was “far weaker” than many thought. The pattern has continued throughout the year as well, with the last two months’ figures being revised significantly downward after their initial release. August figures were revised down by more than half, from a gain of 159,000 to just 78,000. September was less drastic, but still dropped by 31,000 jobs after revision. With just a measly 12,000 jobs added last month, there’s hardly any room to revise without the figure turning negative. Only time will tell.

Downward revisions are also an issue in growth figures, albeit to a lesser degree. Already poor Q1 2024 growth rates of 1.6% were quietly revised to a sluggish 1.3% at the end of May.

It’s an undeniable pattern. We get these awesome economic releases, a barrage of friendly headlines and then months later quiet updates that dramatically alter the actual, final number. Either all the Very Smart People are much worse at this than they used to be, or there’s some shady politicking at play. With the numbers coming days before an extremely tight election, skepticism toward the latter is certainly warranted. Either way, there’s good reason to think these new economic numbers will go down. It’s only a matter of when.

If the people reporting these numbers are that far off, maybe we need new people reporting them.

President Trump And His Trade Policies

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Yesterday Fox News reported that the US trade deficit has dropped for first time in 6 years because of the taxes President Trump has placed on China.

The article reports:

The U.S. trade deficit fell for the first time in six years in 2019 as President Donald Trump hammered China with import taxes.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the gap between what the United States sells and what it buys abroad fell 1.7 percent last year to $616.8 billion. U.S. exports fell 0.1 percent to $2.5 trillion. But imports fell more, slipping 0.4 percent to $3.1 trillion. Imports of crude oil plunged 19.3% to $126.6 billion.

The deficit in the trade of goods with China narrowed last year by 17.6 percent to $345.6 billion. Trump has imposed tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese imports in a battle over Beijing’s aggressive drive to challenge American technological dominance. The world’s two biggest economies reached an interim trade deal last month, and Trump dropped plans to extend the tariffs to another $160 billion in Chinese goods.

The article notes:

Overall, the United States posted a $866 billion deficit in the trade of goods such as cars and appliances, down from $887.3 billion in 2018. But it ran a $249.2 billion surplus in the trade of services such as tourism and banking, down from $260 billion in 2018.

America is a nation of consumers, so I suspect trade deficits are something that will always be with us, but as the manufacturing base in America expands and our trade policies become more balanced, I believe we will see lower trade deficits.

The State Of The Economy

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The Conservative Treehouse posted an article today about the revision of the third quarter economic growth numbers.

The article reports:

More signs the U.S. economy is very strong show up today as several key economic indicators defy prior economist predictions.   Staring with a significant upward revision by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the third quarter GDP growth from 1.9% to 2.1%:

The revision to GDP reflected upward revisions to inventory investment, business investment, and consumer spending.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods (notably recreational goods and vehicles as well as food and beverages) and in services (led by housing and utilities as well as food services). (link)

Additionally, the commerce department released data showing U.S. core capital goods orders increased 1.2% in November, the largest gain since January; and more data on home sales shows a whopping 31.6% increase year-over-year. 

U.S. consumers and home buyers are benefiting from low inflation and significant blue collar wage gains that are an outcome of a growing economy and a very strong jobs market.  The most significant wage growth is in non-supervisory positions.   The economic strength is broad-based and the U.S. middle-class is confident.

We live in a commerce based society. When Americans feel confident about their financial futures and buy things, the economy grows. When Americans stop buying things, the economy shrinks. The economy is cyclical and interdependent. When people are insecure about their financial futures, they take fewer vacations, they go out to dinner less frequently, they go to the movies less frequently, etc. Then the jobs in those economic sectors begin to go away–fewer employees are needed. We saw that in the recession of 1990, which was essentially caused by a tax on luxury goods that Congress told us would affect only the people buying those luxury goods. Well, when people stopped buying luxury goods because they didn’t want to pay the taxes on them, the people making those goods lost their jobs. When those people lost their jobs, they traveled less, ate out less, shopped less, etc. Then the people in those industries were laid off because they were not needed. The pattern here is obvious.

When people feel secure about their future, the economy grows. Recent rumors of recession were not taken seriously because Americans were getting raises and could see that more of their neighbors were working. The economy right now is on a good path. It will take some serious effort to mess it up.

A List The Media Does Not Want You To See

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Breitbart posted an article today titled, “Five Times Hunter Biden’s Business Dealings Presented a Conflict of Interest for Joe Biden.”

Please follow the link to the article for the details, but here is the list:

1. Joe Biden’s top campaign contributor hired Hunter fresh out of law school.

The article notes that credit card issuer MBNA Corp. hired Hunter Biden for an undisclosed position, despite the fact that Hunter had no background in either banking or business. Hunter Biden left the company in 1998 to join the Clinton-era Commerce Department it was as a senior vice president.

2. Hunter Biden was on MBNA’s payroll while Joe Biden was writing bankruptcy reform legislation. 

3. Hunter Biden sought to monetize off his father’s political standing on Wall Street. 

In 2006, shortly before Joe Biden assumed the chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and launched his second presidential campaign, Hunter purchased a hedge fund called Paradigm Global Advisors with his uncle, James. Although neither had a strong background in finance, James and Hunter believed they could leverage Joe Biden’s political connections to their benefit.

“Don’t worry about investors,” James Biden, the former vice president’s younger brother, purportedly told Paradigm’s senior leadership upon taking over the fund, as reported by Politico. “We’ve got people all around the world who want to invest in Joe Biden.”

This sort of philosophy might explain why many of our Congressmen enter Congress as members of the Middle Class and leave as millionaires.

4. Hunter Biden’s firm scored a $1.5 billion deal with the Bank of China only days after his father paid an official visit to the country. 

Peter Schweizer’s book Secret Empires: How the American Political Class Hides Corruption and Enriches Family and Friends gives the details of the transaction.

5. The Obama-Biden administration helped facilitate the sale of U.S. company with insight into military technology to BHR and a Chinese state-owned defense firm. 

…The sale required approval from the Obama-Biden administration’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) as AVIC was a subsidiary of the Chinese government and Henniges produced “dual-use” anti-vibration technology with U.S. “military applications.” CFIUS, which is made up of representatives from 16 different federal bodies including the departments of State, Treasury, and Defense, is required to review any transaction with national security implications.

When the AVIC and BHR’s bid was first announced, alarm bells went off in certain sectors of the defense industry. In particular, many noted that AVIC was “reportedly involved in stealing sensitive data regarding the Joint Strike Fighter program,” which it later “reportedly incorporated … into China’s J-20 and J‑31 aircraft.”

Despite the national security concerns, CFIUS approved the deal with AVIC purchasing 51 percent of the company and BHR taking ownership of the other 49 percent. Upon purchase, an industry newsletter stated the deal was the “biggest Chinese investment into US automotive manufacturing assets to date.”

Although the deal was approved by the Obama administration, it has not escaped congressional scrutiny. In August, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) launched a probe into whether or not the CFIUS decision was influenced by either Joe Biden or former Secretary of State John Kerry, whose stepson was also involved in the venture.

“The direct involvement of Mr. Hunter Biden and Mr. Heinz in the acquisition of Henniges by the Chinese government creates a potential conflict of interest,” Grassley noted when launching the probe.

Become a public servant and help your family become wealthy. Somehow I don’t think that is what servanthood is about.

Revising The Numbers

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Economists seems to have a problem lately correctly predicting economic growth. They always seem a bit surprised when the numbers come in higher than what they predicted. Well, it has happened again.

The Gateway Pundit is reporting the following today:

The fourth quarter GDP number was released on Thursday and beat expectations at 2.6%.  Economists expected a 2.2% GDP rate.

CNBC says the GDP report was only preliminary, it would mean average growth for the year was 3.1 percent.

...Ronald Reagan brought forth an annual real GDP growth of 3.5% . Barack Obama, with his abysmal policies, was lucky to average a GDP growth rate of slightly greater than 1%.

Obama ranked as the fourth worst presidency on record in GDP growth at 1.457% . Only Herbert Hoover (-5.65% ), Andrew Johnson (-0.70% ) and Theodore Roosevelt (1.41% ) had lower average annual GDP growth than Barack Obama.

The Commerce Department announced in the first quarter of 2016 that the US economy expanded at the slowest pace in two years with a GDP growth rate of an anemic 0.5% . The second quarter GDP growth rate was not much better at 1.2% . (The 3rd quarter GDP rate was not yet announced by the time we drafted our post before the 2016 election.)

…Barack Obama was the first President ever to never surpass an annual rate of 3% GDP growth!  This resulted in Obama being rated the worst economic President ever!

Obama’s Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast in 2016 that America would never see 3.0% economic growth again. They had given up and Hillary was their candidate.

President Trump did win the election in 2016 and his Director of the White House National Economic Council Larry Kudlow said in early December that the U.S. economy is growing at a rate greater than 3% –

This is good news for people in the job market and people entering the job market. Jobs are becoming more plentiful and salaries are rising.

Leadership Matters

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Bloomberg is reporting today that real disposable income, or earnings adjusted for taxes and inflation, advanced 0.6 percent from the prior month, the biggest gain since April 2015, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. Part of that I suspect is due to the tax cuts, but there are other things that have made this possible.

The article reports:

The data, covering the first month since the tax law was signed in December, reflected a $30 billion increase in one-time bonuses and a $115.5 billion annualized drop in personal taxes, the Commerce Department said. Such boosts to Americans’ wallets, along with a tight labor market, will sustain spending. Those items, plus rising prices, are likely to keep Fed policy makers on track for at least three interest-rate increases this year, including one that’s widely expected later in March.

 A separate Labor Department report on Thursday showed weekly filings for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since 1969.

 The reduction in taxes helped boost the saving rate to 3.2 percent, the highest since August, from 2.5 percent in December, which was the lowest since 2007.

Most Americans pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes than what Medieval serfs paid the lord of the manor to farm their land.

The article concludes:

The Fed’s preferred price gauge — tied to consumption — rose 0.4 percent in January from the previous month and was up 1.7 percent from a year earlier. Inflation has mostly missed the central bank’s 2 percent target since 2012, though policy makers expect it to rise toward the goal.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core prices rose 0.3 percent, matching the median estimate. The core index, which Fed officials see as a better indicator of underlying price pressures, was up 1.5 percent from January 2017, the same annual gain as the prior three months.

Adjusted for inflation, personal spending declined 0.1 percent in January from the prior month, the first decrease in a year. The weakness reflected a 1.6 percent slump in outlays for durable goods as auto sales cooled.

There are a number of reasons for the improvement of the economy–ending regulations that made it very difficult to start or run a business, putting more money in Americans’ pockets by lowering the individual tax burden, ending the financial penalties that were included in ObamaCare, lowering corporate tax rates to make American more competitive worldwide as a place to locate a business, and simply making it clear that America now welcomes businesses and is prepared to encourage entrepreneurship. Even if you don’t support President Trump, you need to acknowledge that he has been a successful businessman who is attempting to bring that success to America as a whole.