On June 3rd, Fox Business posted an article about the June Jobs Report. The economy is improving rapidly, but there are still some weak spots.
The article reports:
The U.S. economy added jobs in June at a faster pace than in recent months, despite economic uncertainty stemming from trade, tax and monetary policy.
The Labor Department on Thursday reported that employers added 147,000 jobs in June. That figure was above the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who projected 110,000 jobs would be added.
The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%, which was lower than economists’ expectations of 4.3%.
Job gains in the prior two months were both revised, with job creation in April revised up by 11,000 from a gain of 147,000 to 158,000; and May job gains were revised up by 5,000 from a gain of 139,000 to 144,000. Taken together, employment in April and May was 16,000 jobs higher than previously reported.
The workforce participation rate has remained steady.
I don’t know how to reconcile this information with a post from CNBC on Wednesday that reported:
Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.
Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.
The article at Fox Business concludes:
“The U.S. job market continues to largely stand tall and sturdy, even as headwinds mount – but it may be a tent increasingly held up by fewer poles,” said Cory Stahle, Indeed Hiring Lab economist. “The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare and social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will likely ring hollow.”
The market viewed the June jobs report as solidifying the outlook for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for its fifth consecutive meeting later this month.
The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in July declined from 23.8% a day ago to 6.7% on Thursday following the report’s release, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
We need an interest cut now to help with the government’s interest payments and to help the real estate market. Right now the real estate market is being held hostage by the refusal to cut interest rates.