Inflation Is An Issue, But Overall The Economy Is Doing Well

Saying that the economy is doing well despite the inflation is somewhat like someone asking, “How was the play, Mrs. Lincoln.” I understand that, but hopefully the inflation is a temporary condition that will be dealt with shortly. The main driver of the current inflation is the cost of oil (and the lack of American refineries). America First Refining (AFR) is building a new refinery at the Port of Brownsville, Texas. It is expected to start operating sometime between 2030 to 2032. The builders are hoping to expedite the building so that it finishes ahead of schedule. That will be part of a long-term solution. The short term part of the solution will be to finish the war in Iran. I believe that will happen in the next few months.

However, the economy is showing signs of strength.

On September 5th, MSN posted an article about the August jobs report.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added a surprising 162,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department estimated Sept. 4, even as economists said a “low-hire, low-fire” dynamic made it difficult for unemployed Americans to find work.

The 162,000 estimate for August far surpassed forecasters’ expectations and marked a rebound after U.S. employers added a now-revised 21,000 jobs in July. The department previously estimated U.S. employers shed 23,000 jobs in July. Payroll gains for June were also revised higher, reflecting a stronger summer job market than previously thought. 

I love how pessimistic the economists can be when a Republican President is in the White House.

The article notes:

The unemployment rate stayed put at 4.1% in August after falling in June and July when hundreds of thousands of Americans stopped looking for work. The labor force participation rate ticked up to 61.6% in August after falling to 61.4% the month before. 

The article concludes with good news for American workers:

Average hourly earnings for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $37.75 in August, the department said. They increased 3.1% over the year. The department’s next inflation report due out Sept. 11 will reveal whether paychecks kept up with inflation in August. They did not in July.

Looking Past The Obvious

On Friday, The Conservative Treehouse took a close look at the August jobs numbers. When you look past the obvious jobs increase, there are some troubling things hidden in those numbers.

The article reports:

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the August Jobs Report [DATA HERE].

The topline is a net gain of 315,000 jobs with an increase in unemployment to 3.7%.  However, the June and July jobs reports were revised down by 107,000 lower than previously reported, and if you look carefully at the data, you can see a serious problem.

Keep in mind, in the background is a release yesterday showing productivity within the economy dropping in the second quarter by 4.1%. [DATA]  Combine the drop in productivity with higher wages of 5.7% and total wage costs per unit of business output are up 10.1%.  Now we turn back to today’s employment release, and look at these three points of data:

(1) Unemployment for adult men and unemployment for Latinos increased in August.  Adult men and specifically adult Latino men are losing their jobs. (2) The average number of hours worked in August dropped 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours. (3) Total employment amid those aged 16 to 19-years of age increased by 363, 000 in August:

…A total of 363,000 more teenagers started working in August, yet the total net gain in employment overall was 315,000 jobs. That should be the headline of the August 2022 jobs report.

The good news is that the workforce participation rate did increase from 62.1 in July to 62.4 in August. At least it is moving in the right direction. During the Trump administration, the workforce participation rate hit 63.4 in January and February of 2020.