Tag Archives: jobs report

Most Of Us Suspected This

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On Tuesday, Townhall posted an article about the jobs numbers that were reported during the last year or so of the Biden administration. They were strictly made-up numbers.

The article reports:

The Biden administration’s claim of a robust job market has officially collapsed under the weight of complex numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just announced that job creation in the 12 months through March 2025 was overstated by a staggering 911,000 jobs — the most significant downward revision on record. The economy, it turns out, wasn’t growing nearly as fast as Biden’s team led Americans to believe.

Instead of the originally reported 1.8 million new jobs, the actual figure is closer to 850,000. That cuts average monthly job growth during that period by more than half, from 147,000 down to just over 70,000. So much for the “strongest labor market we’ve ever seen.”

These inflated numbers weren’t isolated to a single sector. The shortfall hit nearly every part of the economy, with the most damage in retail, hospitality, business services, and manufacturing. Even the information sector — often touted as a strength in Biden’s economy — saw a revision of over two percent, the steepest percentage drop of any category.

For President Donald Trump, who took office amid glowing media coverage of Biden’s so-called economic legacy, this revision confirms what many already suspected: he inherited a far weaker economy than advertised. What was framed as historic strength was just statistical smoke and mirrors.

The article concludes:

President Trump has responded by removing BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominating economist E.J. Antoni, a vocal critic of the agency’s flawed methodology. After two consecutive years of massive revisions, accountability is long overdue.

The revision technically covers data only up to March 2025, but the picture since then has been no better. Just 22,000 jobs were added in August — hardly a sign of a thriving labor market. If anything, this latest data confirms that America’s economy has been sputtering for longer than the media or the Biden White House would admit. And now, the illusion is gone.

These were the numbers that were part of the reason the Federal Reserve chose not to lower interest rates during the summer. Let’s hope these numbers will be a wake-up call to them. There is, however, good news on the horizon. Many of the leading indicators are moving in a positive direction. The workforce participation rate was also slightly up in August. Brighter days are ahead, but we were lied to when we were told the economy was chugging along just fine during the Biden administration.

Somehow This Was Left Out Of The News Coverage Of the Jobs Report

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The news that came out today on the June and July jobs reports sounded ominous. Why weren’t we adding the expected amount of jobs? What is happening to our workforce? There are some other numbers that need to be looked at to put the jobs report in perspective. The Workforce Participation Rate has been steady but dropping slightly since April–it was 62.6 in April, 62.4 in May, 62.3 in June, and 62.2 in July. We have no way of knowing how many of the federal employees who were laid off were reflected in those numbers. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1 percent and 4.2 percent in July. Again, not a serious increase.

There is, however, a number that is being overlooked.

On August 1st, this chart was posted at X:

American workers are coming back into the labor force.

We are in a period of transition. Inflation is down and wages are up. The federal government is shrinking and jobs are being moved into the private sector. The Stock Market did not like the jobs report, but as the report and the other numbers involved are analyzed, the Stock Market will rebound.

The important thing now is to hang on to your hat, celebrate the slowing of inflation and the cheaper fuel prices, and wait out the bumps.

Learning From The Past

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On Friday, The Daily Caller posted an article about the latest economic numbers released by the Biden administration. On the surface, they look wonderful. At closer examination, not so much.

The article reports:

The economy expanded by 2.8% from July to September, according to Commerce Department figures. The growth is said to be driven by consumer spending, also up 3.7% during this time. Job gains actually slowed to the lowest point since 2020, a sharp decline from 254,000 in September to just 12,000 in October, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Yet the regime has plenty of excuses — storms and strikes — and touts how the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Meanwhile the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target, meaning it could lower interest rates as soon as next week. All told, things are looking alright — at least on the surface.

“Consumers are spending. Inflation is cooling. And the U.S. economy looks as strong as ever,” The New York Times giddily ledes with.

When the corporate media and financial regulators are on the same page, there’s always an instinctual reason to be distrustful. During the Biden-Harris administration, all the Very Smart People running the U.S. economy have made a habit of quietly revising their optimistic numbers after they come out. After all, it’s only the initial headlines that count.

The article includes the following screenshot:

There’s some history here–in the Biden administration (and possibly in previous administrations), the initial numbers are not always accurate.

The article concludes:

This might even be an understatement; the downward revisions on jobs numbers have been nothing short of egregious this year. The revised figures between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs added than initially reported. But the new figures did not trickle out until August 2024, at which point it was safe for CNN to admit that job growth was “far weaker” than many thought. The pattern has continued throughout the year as well, with the last two months’ figures being revised significantly downward after their initial release. August figures were revised down by more than half, from a gain of 159,000 to just 78,000. September was less drastic, but still dropped by 31,000 jobs after revision. With just a measly 12,000 jobs added last month, there’s hardly any room to revise without the figure turning negative. Only time will tell.

Downward revisions are also an issue in growth figures, albeit to a lesser degree. Already poor Q1 2024 growth rates of 1.6% were quietly revised to a sluggish 1.3% at the end of May.

It’s an undeniable pattern. We get these awesome economic releases, a barrage of friendly headlines and then months later quiet updates that dramatically alter the actual, final number. Either all the Very Smart People are much worse at this than they used to be, or there’s some shady politicking at play. With the numbers coming days before an extremely tight election, skepticism toward the latter is certainly warranted. Either way, there’s good reason to think these new economic numbers will go down. It’s only a matter of when.

If the people reporting these numbers are that far off, maybe we need new people reporting them.

Unfortunately, The Jobs Report Tells The Story

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The Biden administration has spent a lot of time trying to convince Americans that Bidenomics is working. Most Americans are not convinced because all of us buy groceries and gasoline on a regular basis. Now that the jobs numbers for April have been released, the true condition of the American economy is becoming obvious.

On Friday, Townhall reported the following:

The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April according to the latest employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday morning, the smallest job gain in some six months and significantly below Wall Street estimates for the month.

It was expected that April would bring 240,000 to 250,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate would remain at 3.8 percent. Instead, April was a big miss, and unemployment ticked up to 3.9 percent.

The article continued:

The labor force participation rate remained at 62.7 percent in April and the average workweek slipped down to 34.3 hours while average hourly wages rose 0.2 percent for a 12-month increase of 3.9 percent.

Comparing wage growth with inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed core inflation was still running at an annualized 3.8 percent in March, meaning Americans’ wages are barely keeping up with still-rising costs.

The hourly wage numbers are a tribute to creative math. If the number of hours worked is decreased, but the income remains the same, it appears to be an increase on paper. It is not an actual increase. If I work 15 hours and make a total of $150, I earn $10 an hour. If I work 10 hours and make $150, I am making $15 an hour. My income has not increased, but my hourly wage has. So scaling down the average workweek increase the average hourly wage.

The article concludes:

“Today’s jobs report confirms the economy is reentering stagflation,” said Alfredo Ortiz, CEO of Job Creators Network, of Friday’s report. “Only 175,000 jobs were created last month, well below the recent average and expectations,” he emphasized. “More than half of new jobs were created in the unproductive government and quasi-government healthcare and social services sectors that don’t provide growth,” explained Ortiz. “Combined with slow economic growth and resurgent inflation, these jobs numbers suggest stagflation has returned.”

Welcome to the results of Bidenomics.

About Those Jobs Numbers

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We have all read the reports of some major manufacturing companies and retail stores laying off employees and shutting down stores. So why is the Biden administration so enthusiastically touting their jobs numbers? Could it be that those numbers do not actually reflect what is actually happening?

On Wednesday, The Federalist reported the following:

Last week, the Labor Department issued its jobs report for March 2024. Democrats will tell you the report is rosy and bright, that the economy is heading in the right direction, and that your negative instincts and impressions about the economy are wrong. In reality, the report is abysmal. Below are the facts about employment that Democrats won’t mention: Fewer Americans have full-time jobs, and more of those with full-time jobs are also working part-time jobs to make ends meet.

Democrats claim that the economy added 303,000 jobs in March — but it added no full-time jobs at all in March. The economy actually shed 6,000 full-time jobs that month. In fact, full-time employment in the United States has dropped in each of the past four months. Since November, there are 1,787,000 fewer Americans with full-time employment.

So how do Democrats claim the economy added 303,000 jobs in March? What Democrats do not tell you is that the vast majority of these jobs — 75 percent — are second jobs. Under the Biden economy, the number of people who have had to simultaneously work both a full-time job and a second part-time job just to make ends meet has hovered at historical highs. In March, the number of people who added a second part-time job on top of their other full-time employment totaled 225,000. The Democrats’ “good news” is just you having to work longer and harder to survive.

The article also notes that there is much more growth in government jobs than jobs in the private sector. This is NOT good economic news.

The article reports:

The U.S. has faced another insidious problem for decades that gets little attention. There are more than 3,000 counties or county equivalents in the United States. Yet, half of the 10 wealthiest counties in the U.S., measured in terms of median household income, are suburbs of Washington, D.C. According to U.S. Census data, 50 years ago only five suburban D.C. counties made the list of the top 50 richest U.S. counties or equivalents. By 2020, this figure had more than tripled to 17. 

It’s long past time to shrink government and cut taxes!

The Truth About The Jobs Report

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Robert DuChemin is a writer at substack. He is a Florida attorney who does great research and is very adept at analyzing information. Recently he posted an article that included some good perspective on the recent jobs report.

The article notes:

…Today’s Labor Department press release claims once again to have “created” more than 360,000 new jobs. I read the entire release and nowhere in the release did they mention the total number of people employed in the USA last month.

It is not like they don’t have those numbers. After a little digging, I discovered from the Labor Department’s own files that 160,721,000 Americans were employed last month. In April, 161,031,000 Americans were employed (shockingly, they adjusted this number after last month‘s release). There is no way anybody using regular math can claim that a loss of about 700,000 jobs was an increase of 360,000 jobs. No wonder they left the total numbers out of their press release.

But it is worse than that. Prior to the pandemic, in February 2020, there were 162,800,000 Americans gainfully employed.

So, with all of his claims of “creating” more jobs, in 2 1/2 years and a $5 trillion increase in debt, Joe still has not replaced all of the jobs lost to the Wuhan Flu disaster. He remains 2,000,000 jobs short.

It drives me crazy that nobody in the broadcast or cable news is discussing this outright lie. Does everybody think Americans are too stupid to read a basic spreadsheet?

Also horrible was the government adding more than 50,000 jobs last month while the number of private-sector jobs decreased. As any first year economics student could tell you, private sector jobs expand the free market economy, government jobs contract the free market economy.

Joe is also going to claim the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 as a Democrat victory even though he has yet to read the actual bill passed by Congress. He gets the bill tomorrow. As I have previously explained, the fact that they won anything was a huge GOP victory because China Joe promised several times that he would “not negotiate,” “not budge one inch,” not give in to people who want to make America great again. The GOP, only 4 people shy of having zero control of any part of our government, was able to negotiate substantial reductions and recover previously allocated money for the first time in US history. There is no way this was a Democrat victory.

Joe’s plans to destroy this country are on life-support, and the GOP can easily pull the plug during this year’s appropriations.

A good statistician can make numbers say anything he wants them to say. It seems as if the only people in the Biden administration who are actually good at their jobs are the ones that know how to lie with statistics.

Welcome To The Biden Economy

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The Epoch Times is reporting today that U.S. employers added fewer than 200,000 jobs in September. The workforce participation rate is slightly down from August at 61.6 (it was 61.7 in August).

The Epoch Times reports:

The Labor Department’s jobs report, released Oct. 8, shows that non-farm payroll employment rose by a paltry 194,000 last month, down from last month’s upwardly revised 366,000 and far below the FactSet-provided consensus forecasts of 500,000.

“The latest snapshot of the job market is a bit of a bad news, good news affair,” Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

“It delivered a surprisingly weak payrolls number,” Hamrick said, adding, “at the same time, the nation’s unemployment rate slipped four-tenths to a pandemic era low of 4.8 percent.”

The total number of unemployed persons fell by 710,000 to 7.7 million, the report showed. While that’s considerably lower than the pandemic-era high, it remains elevated compared to the 5.7 million just prior to the outbreak.

Leisure and hospitality, including bars and restaurants, generated only 74,000 jobs, a result that’s below expectations. There was also weakness in local government educations jobs, which fell by 144,000 last month despite schools reopening.

There was relative strength in manufacturing, which added 27,000 jobs, and transportation and warehousing saw a jobs boost of 47,000 positions.

Overall, government payrolls fell by 123,000 jobs in September, which was offset by an increase of 317,000 in private payrolls.

The labor force participation rate, which is a measure of people working or actively looking for work, remained little changed at 61.6 percent, a historically depressed level. In February 2020, the labor force participation rate stood at 63.6 percent, with a historical peak of 67.3 percent in April 2000.

The article does note that the top ten states leading the economic recovery all have Republican governors. The article also notes that generally speaking red states have dominated the economic recovery.

The article also includes the White House attempt to spin the bad news:

White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain took to Twitter to defend President Joe Biden’s record on job creation.

“The unemployment rate is now down to 4.8 percent—in just eight months. We’ve created 2x more jobs under @POTUS in his first nine months than any administration in history,” Klain wrote.

Besides painting a dim view of the vigor of the labor market recovery, the lackluster jobs report could also delay an expected decision by the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back monetary support before the end of the year.

The labor market remains a key touchstone for the Fed, with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell repeatedly hinting that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start trimming asset purchases.

Investors are looking for clues as to when the Fed will initiate the much-anticipated rollback of its massive $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities, one of the crisis support measures the central bank deployed last year to help lift the economy from the pandemic recession.

If you are still looking for truth in the mainstream media, you are going to be on a long search.

Economic Growth Is Not Responding In A Positive Way To President Biden’s Economic Plans

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Breitbart is reporting today that the number of jobs added to the American economy in April was far below expectations.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added just 266,000  jobs in April and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1 percent, the Labor Department said in its monthly labor assessment Friday, smashing expectations.

This was far below expectations. Analysts surveyed by Econoday had predicted Friday’s report would show between 755,000 and 1.25 million workers added to payrolls in April. The median forecast was for 938,000 and an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent.

The news is not all bad–it’s just not what the economists wanted. They were hoping that the Biden administration would continue the good news of the Trump administration. Based on the policies espoused by the Biden administration, that is a false hope. The unemployment rate in March was 6 percent, so unemployment only went up slightly (not down as predicted). There is, however, another figure that needs to be looked at–the workforce participation rate. The workforce participation rate is the section of working population in the age group of 16-64 in the economy currently employed or seeking employment. That number was 61.5 in March and 61.7 in April. Changes in that number occur gradually, and an upward trend is a good thing.

The article concludes:

In April, 18.3 percent of workers performed their jobs remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 21.0 percent in the prior month.

The number of people saying they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic declined to 9.2 million, from 11.4 million in the previous month. Among those who reported in April that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 9.3 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed
from the previous month.

Among those not in the labor force in April, 2.8 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 3.7 million the month before.

We are actually moving slowly in a good direction. The question is whether or not that positive economic momentum will continue under President Biden’s economic policies.

The Economy Is Strong

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No one really knows what impact the coronavirus will have on our economy, but as for now, the February jobs report showed a strong, vibrant, growing economy.

Yahoo News posted details of the report today.

The article reports:

The Labor Department released its February jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday. Here were the main results from the report, compared to consensus expectations compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Change in non-farm payrolls: +273,000 vs. +175,000 expected and 273,000 in January
  • Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.6% in January
  • Avg. hourly earnings, month on month: +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.2% in January
  • Avg. hourly earnings, year on year: 3.0% vs. +3.0% expected and 3.1% in January

January’s job gains were upwardly revised to 273,000, from the 225,000 previously reported, and December’s non-farm payroll additions were upwardly revised by 37,000 to 184,000. This brought average job gains over the past three months up to 243,000, or above the average from 2019, when job growth averaged 178,000 per month.

The services sector again led the advance in job gains in February. Within this sector, health-care and social assistance added 56,500 payrolls, accelerating gains from January. Professional and business services also posted strong job gains, adding a net 41,000 positions.

Within the services sector, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing and temporary health services shed jobs in February. Retail posted the largest declines, losing a net 7,000 positions and extending a drop of 5,800 from January.

For the goods-producing sector, manufacturing added jobs for the first time in three months, posting a net 15,000 payroll gains. Construction and mining each also added jobs, underscoring a firming of the goods-producing sector in February after months of weakness relative to services. Employment in construction rose by 42,000 positions for the month after a gain of 49,000 in January, representing the best two-month advance for the industry since March 2018, as unseasonably warm weather and a strengthening housing market helped supported hiring.

The Workforce Participation Rate remained steady at 63.4 percent.

It’s always interesting to me that when the jobs report comes out during a Republican administration, the numbers always seem to be higher than the experts predicted. There will be some impact in March from the coronavirus because of the disruption in the global supply chain the virus has caused, but I believe the economy is strong enough to recover from any glitches that may occur (despite the undisguised wishes of the Democrat party for a serious economic downturn).

The Trump Economy

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The November jobs report was released this morning. CNS News posted an article this morning with the numbers.

The article reports:

The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics says the economy added a whopping 266,000 jobs in November; and for the sixth month in a row, a record number of Americans were counted as employed.

158,593,000 Americans were working in November, the 24th record of Trump’s presidency.

The unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a point to 3.5 percent, a 50-year low.

In November, the civilian non-institutional population in the United States was 260,020,000. That included all people 16 and older who did not live in an institution (such as a prison, nursing home or long-term care facility).

Of that civilian non-institutional population, 164,404,000 were participating in the labor force, meaning that they either had a job or were actively seeking one during the last month. This resulted in a labor force participation rate of 63.2 percent.

The labor force participation rate has never been higher than 67.3 percent, a level achieved in the early months of 2000. The Trump-era high was set last month at 63.3 percent. Economists say retiring baby boomers account for some of the decline since the turn of the century.

This report partially explains why the Democrats are in such a rush to impeach President Trump. Historically a President whose first term includes a booming economy is almost always re-elected. Unless the economy changes drastically in the next year, President Trump will serve two terms. There is also the matter of the electability of the Democrat candidates.

The Numbers Are In

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CNBC is reporting today that nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 in October, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

The article notes:

There were big revisions of past numbers as well. August’s initial 168,000 payrolls addition was revised up to 219,000, while September’s jumped from 136,000 to 180,000.

The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher to 3.6% from 3.5%, still near the lowest in 50 years.

The pace of average hourly earnings picked up a bit, rising 0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain.

The article also reports:

Central bank leaders have largely praised the state of the U.S. economy, particularly compared with its global peers. The Fed earlier this week lowered its benchmark interest rate a quarter point, the third such move this year, but Chairman Jerome Powell clearly indicated that this likely will be the last cut for some time unless conditions change significantly.

“The October jobs report is unambiguously positive for the US economic outlook,” said Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst. “Above-consensus hiring in October, together with upward revisions to prior months, is consistent with our view that job growth, while clearly slower in 2019 than in 2018, will maintain a pace of 130-150K per month. Wage growth remaining at 3.0% should further support incomes and consumption-led growth.”

The economic policies of President Trump have resulted in significant economic growth for America. American workers at all levels are enjoying the benefits of these policies. The decision for the voters in 2020 will be whether or not they choose to continue this economic growth.

A Positive Economic Picture

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CNS News is reporting today that the economy is doing better than predicted.

The article reports:

A record 157,005,000 people were employed in June, the most since February and the 19th record of Trump’s presidency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.

And the economy added a strong 224,000 jobs in June, well above the estimate of 160,000.

The unemployment rate, the lowest in 50 years, ticked up a tenth of a point to 3.7 percent.

In June, the nation’s civilian noninstitutionalized population, consisting of all people age 16 or older who were not in the military or an institution, reached 259,037,000. Of those, 162,981,000 participated in the labor force by either holding a job or actively seeking one.

The 162,981,000 who participated in the labor force equaled 62.9 percent of the 259,037,000 civilian noninstitutionalized population. That’s up a tenth of a point from May’s 62.8 percent participation rate. The payroll taxes paid by people who participate in the labor force help support those who do not participate, so the higher this number, the better.

The participation rate reached a record high of 67.3 percent in early 2000; the highest it’s been under Trump is 63.2 percent.

In December 2016, the labor force participation rate was 62.7. It has moved between 62.7 and 63.1 since President Trump took office.

I love the fact that during a Republican administration, the estimates of jobs created is always low and economists are always surprised when the real numbers come out.

The article concludes:

And wages continue rising: In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $27.90, following a 9-cent gain in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in a June 25 speech, said the economy has performed “reasonably well” so far this year, with continued growth and strong job creation keeping the unemployment rate near historic lows.

But Powell also mentioned “some ongoing cross-currents,” including trade uncertainty and incoming data about the strength of the global economy.

He said the Fed “will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion…” That could mean lower interest rates — or not, if the employment and job numbers remain strong.

Economic policies impact the economy. It matters who is occupying the White House. President Trump has proved that.

Facts Are Such Inconvenient Things

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The biggest advantage the Republicans will have in 2020 is a strong economy. Because the Democrats know this, they are trying very hard to downplay the economic recovery that is currently taking place. They have invented some interesting facts in their attempt to do this. However, the alternative media has learned to fact check these attempts to downplay President Trump’s economic success.

Townhall posted an article today that includes some recent fact checking.

The article reports on some recent statement by Kamala Harris:

First, I’m not sure many economists or Republicans cite the stock market as the top indicator of economic health, despite her initial straw man claim. There are many other metrics that are more indicative and more helpful to building that argument, which we’ll mention in a moment.  But it’s also worth pointing out that a robust stock market is not merely good news for people who own stocks, as Harris sarcastically says.  Plenty of workers’ benefit and retirement funds, including those of many public sector employees, are tied into the performance of the stock market — so it’s not just investors who benefit when markets are humming along, and it’s not just investors who feel pain when markets sustain hits. 

Second, in her attempt to downplay the impressive, stable and low US unemployment rate, Harris recycles a claim for which AOC was slapped down by fact-checkers a few months ago.  Even left-leaning Politifact assigned her a “pants on fire” rating.  Harris’ spin is less explicitly clumsy and wrong than AOC’s, as she didn’t specifically state that the low rate is directly attributable to people working more than one job, which makes absolutely no sense — but she does use this argument to undercut the (compelling) argument that the economy is in good shape because so many Americans are employed.  While it’s certainly true that a substantial number of people are working multiple jobs in order to make ends meet, it’s not accurate to pretend that this phenomenon is sufficiently widespread as to justify Harris’ talking point.

The article further reports:

The February jobs report found that just five percent of the employed population is working more than one job, down from 5.2 percent one year ago.  The experiences of the people who constitute that five percent matter, of course, but they are not evidence of a larger trend — and certainly not a trend that represents a real basis to shrug off the historically-low unemployment rate.  The jobs report that came out on Friday was a major ‘miss’ on a key number, with the US economy adding only 20,000 jobs last month; economists were expecting 180,000.  That’s a potentially concerning data point, underscoring the folly of simply assuming that the current prosperity streak will continue unabated.  But there were positive statistics, too.  The previous two months’ job creation data was revised upward by 12,000, and the overall unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent.  That marks 12 consecutive months, a full year, with the U3 figure at or below four percent, which is unambiguously good.

The article concludes:

Sustainability is a fair worry for the White House, but as of this moment, the most useful measuring sticks of the US economy are unemployment (3.8 percent), GDP growth (3.1 percent Q4 to Q4), and wage growth (3.4 percent).  All three are impressive.  Harris’ snarky point, therefore, is weak.  

As wages and jobs increase, voters will have to decide whether to believe what they are experiencing or what they are being told.

Lied To (Again)

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Yesterday The New York Post posted an article about the Labor Department‘s December jobs report. I am probably not the only one who wondered why the jobs added number was lower than expected (I see signs of economic recovery all around me–new shops, new construction, formerly unemployed people going back to work, people getting bonuses, etc.). Well, it seems that there was more to the numbers than I thought.

The article reports:

But the number was kept artificially low by a seasonal adjustment that wasn’t comparable to the one done a year earlier, in December 2016.

And it’s unusual for one December’s adjustment to be so different from the previous December.

If the adjustments had been consistent, last Friday’s number would have shown growth of another 133,000. Add the growth that was announced (148,000 jobs) and the seasonal adjustment difference (133,000) and this December’s growth would have been a very, very healthy 281,000 jobs.

How to lie with statistics.

It gets worse:

There was another adjustment that made Friday’s job number look worse than it would have been.

In the December figure released last Friday, the government deducted 38,000 jobs that it thinks were lost but can’t prove were lost because they happened inside very small companies.

A year earlier, in December 2016, only 17,000 jobs were deducted for this reason.

Again, if Labor has simply remained consistent, December’s jobs gains could have been as high as 300,000.

As I’ve explained many times before, the government’s economic statistics are not expected to be completely accurate the first time they are announced — even though Wall Street and the media treat them like they are.

That’s why the government does numerous revisions.

I guess the only numbers we can actually believe are the ones in the final revision!

Mixed Economic News Because Of The Hurricanes

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Generally speaking, the economic news is good–the workforce participation rate is up and unemployment is down. That is a good thing. The only negative is the fact that according to CNBC America lost 33,000 jobs in the month of September. That loss is attributed to the hurricanes that hit Florida and the Gulf Coast states.

CNBC further reports:

Even with the surprise jobs number, the closely watched hourly wages figure jumped higher, to an annualized rate of 2.9 percent.

 Economists surveyed by Reuters expected payroll growth of 90,000 in September, compared with 169,000 in August. The unemployment rate was expected to hold steady at 4.4 percent. It declined even as the labor-force participation rate rose to 63.1 percent, its highest level all year and the best reading since March 2014.

“The lousy returns from the September jobs report will make little impression on observers, who essentially gave the labor market a free pass due to the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma,” said Curt Long, chief economist at the National Association of Federally Insured Credit Unions.

An alternate number that includes discouraged workers as well as those working part-time for economic reasons also tumbled, falling from 8.6 percent to 8.3 percent, its lowest reading since June 2007.

The Workforce Participation Rate increased to 63.1. The following chart showing changes in the Workforce Participation Rate is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

As you can see, the rate is slowly inching upward.

According to Bloomberg News, Americans are going back to work.

Bloomberg reports:

Americans are coming off the labor market’s sidelines at a pace that intensified in September.

The number of people going from out-of-the-labor-market into jobs jumped to an all-time high last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s employment report showed on Friday, even as the number of people flowing into unemployment fell. While these numbers can be volatile, they provide the latest confirmation that Americans are being pulled into work as the labor market tightens.

The positive changes in the economy are the result of the deregulation that has been going on since President Trump took office. There is still more deregulation needed. If all or part of the President’s tax reform proposals are put into effect, those reforms will also help encourage economic growth.

The Business Optimism That Surrounds President Donald Trump

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President Trump has been in office for about two weeks. He has issued a number of executive orders that he believes will help restart the American economy, but he really hasn’t been in office long enough to see very much in terms of results. However, what he has done is increase optimism, which does influence the business climate.

Yesterday the January jobs report was released. Hot Air posted a story.

Here are some of the highlights:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities. …

After accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls, the civilian labor force increased by 584,000 in January, and the labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 62.9 percent. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, was up by 457,000 over the month, and the employment-population ratio edged up to 59.9 percent.

…U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring, which likely gives the Trump administration a head start as it seeks to boost the economy and employment.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs last month, the largest gain in four months, the Labor Department said on Friday. But the unemployment rate rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.8 percent and wages increased modestly, suggesting that there was still some slack in the labor market.

This is the chart on the workforce participation rate since 2007:

It may be a slow climb, but we are at least moving in the right direction.

The Economy By The Numbers

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On Friday, Investor’s Business Daily posted their analysis of the recent jobs report. The report was more positive than some recent reports, but there were still a few problems.

The article reports:

The alternative measure used by the Department of Labor based on the household survey, showed job growth was even swifter, with a gain of 485,000. Best of all, nearly half a million Americans on net entered the labor force, helping reverse for now a horrid slide in labor market participation.

The participation rate now stands at 62.6%, up from 62.4% in September. But we’re still way behind the pre-recession high of 66.2% in 2007. A record 94 million Americans over the age of 16 are not working or looking for work.

Average wages were down a notch to $25.24 — bad news on a number of fronts. Real median wages have now been flat for almost a decade. It looks like a lot of those new jobs in December were at McDonald’s or Wal-Mart. About 37,000 came in bars and restaurants. The painful pattern of this recovery is that the jobs gained don’t pay as much as the jobs that have disappeared.

The article also address the falling oil prices:

Low oil prices are normally good news for the economy, but their relentless decline of late is a symptom of weak global demand from producers. The likelihood of any growth-oriented policy changes in Washington on regulations, taxes, ObamaCare or trade promotion seem remote in the near term. And the Fed is warning of three or four more interest-rate hikes later in the year.

Also on Friday, Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner for president, proposed a 45% tariff on Chinese goods and services. It’s hard to be bullish in such an environment.

We need some serious changes in economic policies in order to grow the economy. Hopefully the election in November will bring those changes.

This Sort Of Logic Makes My Head Hurt

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Yesterday the Daily Caller posted an article about Hillary Clinton’s latest stand on illegal immigration.

The article includes Mrs. Clinton’s latest statement on the subject:

Often times when I have conversations with people who are fearful about immigration reform, their fears are rooted in the feeling that they are losing jobs that are going to people who are undocumented. And part of the reason that fear has a reality to it is because if people can pay you six dollars an hour, because you are undocumented, then why would they pay somebody who already is a citizen what the minimum wage or the prevailing wage should be?

So my argument is, the quicker we can legalize the people who are here, the better the job market will be for everybody because you will not have a group of people who are taken advantage of, and you will not have others who feel as though, and to some extent it is true, they are losing jobs because this group that is being taken advantage of is paid so much less and being treated so much worse.

So my argument to people who worry about comprehensive immigration reform and the effect on their jobs is: it’s just the opposite. The sooner we can get to legalization, the better the job market will be for everybody.

The explanation not given is how adding millions of workers to a struggling jobs market will make things easier for Americans seeking jobs.

Yahoo News reported today:

The ADP (Automatic Data Processing) read came in below estimates at 169K for April vs. estimates of about 205K – the second monthly tally under 200K in a row after 11 straight months of coming above that level. Not only did the April jobs tally miss the mark, but last month’s already-soft reading was further revised down. This doesn’t bode well for Friday’s government jobs report the consensus expectation for the BLS report is for ‘headline’ gains of 220K (per Bloomberg.com), which includes government jobs. As such, this ADP report will most likely prompt folks to lower their estimates for the Friday jobs report.

Adding millions of people to the jobs market at this time is not a good idea. All it will accomplish is to put more people on welfare and unemployment programs and eventually bankrupt the federal budget. It would be better to encourage those here illegally to return to their home countries.