Tag Archives: unemployment numbers

With Apologies To Abbott And Costello

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On Monday, John Droz posted an article in substack about the latest unemployment numbers.

The article notes:

Believe it or not (as this superb article explains), there are now SIX different US unemployment rates! Here are the latest (2023) government data for all six. The popularly referred to rates are 3.6% (U-3: unemployed) and 6.9% (U-6: out of work).

However, there is another large fly in the ointment: the unemployment rates (by-and-large) do not count illegal immigrants. When that number was low, it was ignored, as it was considered to be just statistical noise. Since 2020, that is no longer the case, as the current data says some six (6) million new illegal immigrants are in the US, just from the Southern border!

The article includes a spoof of Abbott and Costello’s Who’s On First routine. Here is a portion of that spoof:

COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
ABBOTT: Good Subject. It’s 3.6%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work? 
ABBOTT: No, that’s 6.9%.

COSTELLO: You just said 3.6%.
ABBOTT: 3.6% are unemployed. 

COSTELLO: Right, 3.6% out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 6.9%. 

COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 6.9% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 3.6%. 

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 3.6% or 6.9%?
ABBOTT: 3.6% are unemployed. 6.9% are out of work. 

COSTELLO: But if you are out of work, you are unemployed. 
ABBOTT: No, Biden said you can’t count those “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to be looking for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.

COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who isn’t actively looking for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.

COSTELLO: It wouldn’t be fair to whom? 
ABBOTT: The unemployed. 

COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work. 
ABBOTT: No, the Unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are Out of Work gave up looking. If you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the Unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you’re off the Unemployment roles that would count as less Unemployment? 
ABBOTT: Yes, unemployment would go down.

Follow the link above to read the rest of the spoof.

That is the reason the unemployment number is so low while so many people are out of work.

Let’s Not Celebrate Too Soon

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On Friday, CNS News posted an article about the jobs report that was recently released. The mainstream media is thrilled that non-farm payrolls added a whopping 528,000 in July, more than double the estimate of 250,000; and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in July from 3.6 percent in June. Unfortunately, that does not really represent the whole picture.

The article notes:

But on the downside, the number of Americans not in the labor force — no job and not looking for one — climbed above the 100,000,000 mark again, settling at 100,051,000 in July. That’s a 239,000 increase from June; and it follows an increase of 510,000 from May to June, when the number rose to 99,812,000.

The “not in the labor force” category includes retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work.

People who don’t have a job and aren’t looking for one put downward pressure on the important labor force participation rate, which dropped a tenth of a point to 62.1 percent in July.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, a lower labor force participation rate is associated with lower gross domestic product (GDP) and lower tax revenues. It is also associated with larger federal outlays, because people who are not in the labor force are more likely to enroll in certain federal benefit programs.

The article concludes:

In contrast to the aging of the population, CBO said it expects two long-term trends to boost participation in the labor force:

The population is becoming more educated, and people with more education tend to participate in the labor force at higher rates than do people with less education. And increasing longevity is expected to lead people to continue working until increasingly older ages.

But CBO said it expects those two trends to be mostly offset by other trends that will put downward pressure on the labor force participation rate.

The unemployment rate is projected to gradually rise over the next few years. By 2028, it is projected to reach 4.5 percent, CBO said.

We saw what policies actually increase the workforce participation rate and gross domestic product (GDP) during the Trump administration. A return to those policies would increase government revenue, slow down inflation, and improve the overall economy. However, the Biden administration is so intent on undoing everything President Trump did, they don’t care if they destroy the American economy in the process.

What The Democrats Are Really Afraid Of

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You can dismiss the turnout at Trump rallies versus the turnout for Democrat candidates. You can dismiss the tweets you may not like, but you can’t dismiss what is happening to the President’s approval numbers in minority communities.

The American Spectator posted an article today with the following headline, “Why Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Up Among Minorities.”

The article notes:

A mounting number of voter polls show that, despite shrill denunciations of the President by the Democrats for his alleged racism, Trump is enjoying a dramatic increase in his approval ratings among minorities. This isn’t, as some liberal news outlets and pundits have suggested, wishful thinking based on outlier polls. The trend began showing up in surveys early this year and appears to be gaining momentum. Some polls now show his approval numbers at 25 percent among African-American voters and 50 percent among Hispanic voters. If those figures hold for the next 15 months, they will render Trump unbeatable in November of 2020.

The article notes a number of reasons for the rising approval ratings. Among the Hispanic community, two reasons are the President’s stand on immigration and the economy. Those in the Hispanic community who followed the rules to become Americans do not support endless illegal immigration. Those in the Hispanic community have also seen a dramatic increase in employment opportunities and a decrease in unemployment. In the black community, people are asking why cities that have been controlled by Democrats for decades and given massive amounts of money by the government still look worse than cities in other countries that were totally destroyed during World War II. In other words, after voting Democrat for decades with no visible improvement in their situation, minorities are seeing positive change. Minorities have the lowest unemployment numbers in history. They are seeing employment opportunities they have not seen before. Pocketbook issues are having an impact on the way they view President Trump.

The article concludes:

The main reason for the surge in Trump’s Hispanic support, however, is the economy. As Steve Cortes, a member of the President’s Hispanic Advisory Council, points out:

Hispanics neither desire nor expect a laundry list of deliverables from government, but rather seek the conditions to advance and prosper independently.  As the most statistically entrepreneurial demographic in America, Hispanics have thrived amid the Trump boom as regulatory and tax relief unleashes a small business surge. Every American benefits from this new dynamism, but Hispanics most of all.

Hispanic voters, mind you, will be the largest ethnic minority in the electorate by 2020. They, combined with African Americans, may very well decide who will live in the White House after the next election. Moreover, the days when Democrats could win all of their votes by screeching “racism,” encouraging illegal immigration, and offering massive giveaway programs are probably over. President Trump appears to be building real support among minorities by providing genuine opportunity in a thriving economy. If he receives their support in anywhere near the percentages suggested above, he will win in 2020 no matter who runs against him.

The presidential election of 2020 will be very interesting.

The Ever-Shrinking Labor Force

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Yesterday Jim Geraghty posted an article at National Review Online about the unemployment numbers released this week and the media’s celebration that unemployment is going down.

This is the chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

As you can see, the civilian labor force is not increasing.  In January 2006, there were 150,214,000 Americans in the labor force. In December 2008, there were 154,626,000 Americans in the labor force. That is an increase of 4,412,000.

The article reports:

We’re still down 349,000 from the size of the labor force when Obama’s term began. The labor force hit its lowest point during that time in January 2011, at 153,250,000.

The economy may actually improve slightly this year, and the economy should not be the only issue in deciding who to support in November’s election. There are other issues (some of which affect the economy) such as national defense, Obamacare, government spending, tax policies, and over-regulation.. This will be an important election, we owe it to ourselves to consider carefully how we vote.

 

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A Few Things To Add To The Unemployment Picture

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Ed Morrissey at Hot Air posted an article today on the unemployment numbers released today. Everything is not quite what we are told it is.

Mr. Morrissey reports that the numbers are slowly going down–we are now at 8.5 percent. There is, however, a bit more to the story.

The article points out:

The civilian population participation rate hasn’t changed at all from the 64.0% of last month, which remains the lowest level since the Reagan years and which keeps the jobless rate artificially low. The civilian labor force — all the employed and all those seeking employment — actually declined by 50,000 people since November.  However, the U-6 measure of “real” unemployment dropped from 15.6% in November to 15.2% in December, which is the lowest in three years.

The economy is improving very slowly. It would improve much more quickly if we began to remove some of the choking regulations from businesses and if we revised our tax code down to one or two pages that were easily understood by average Americans. Hopefully, this year’s elections will give us leadership that will do that.

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