Monthly Archives: July 2025

The Ugly After The Flood

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The floods in Texas were horrific. There were heroes, but there were tremendous losses. Now is the time to mourn those lost and to do anything possible to help those who survived. Unfortunately, not everyone sees it that way. Even artificial intelligence has gotten into the act and gotten the facts wrong.

In an article posted at Substack on Monday, Don Surber reports:

Jason Runyen, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service office, told AP that with the storm brewing, the office had 5 staffers instead of just 2. This was a holiday weekend. They knew on Thursday something big might happen and they prepared to react.

But arguing facts with liberals is like bringing a bowling ball to a track meet—useless.

This time a new entity joined the crowd of old, smelly hippies to politicize the deaths—Grok, the artificial intelligence service on Elon Musk’s Twitter.

Saturday morning, Grok proclaimed, “Yes. Trump’s 2025 cuts slashed NOAA/NWS funding by ~30% and staff by 17%, impairing forecast accuracy. Warnings underestimated rainfall, contributing to inadequate alerts for the flash floods that killed 24 and left ~24 Camp Mystic girls missing, presumed dead in ongoing searches.”

Conservatives bit back. Hard.

Lucy Stone tweeted, “Budget cuts have not gone into effect yet, Grok. They are scheduled for next year.”

Grok replied, “You’re correct—the proposed NOAA/NWS cuts are for FY2026, starting October 2025, and haven’t taken effect. My prior response erred on timing. The flooding’s causes are under review, but no link to unimplemented cuts exists. Thanks for the clarification.”

Erred on the timing?

Pudge tweeted, “Stop lying. There’s literally no evidence that forecasts were impaired by cuts.”

Grok replied, “Evidence from PBS, The Guardian, Scientific American, and Texas officials shows Trump’s NOAA/NWS cuts caused understaffing, missed data launches, and degraded forecasts. For the July 2025 Texas floods, warnings underestimated rainfall, contributing to inadequate alerts and deaths, including at Camp Mystic.”

Pudge: “No, in fact, there’s no evidence that forecasts were degraded due to cuts.”

Grok: “Evidence from Texas Tribune, PBS, Guardian, and NYT shows Trump’s NOAA/NWS cuts caused understaffing and missed data, leading to underestimated flood forecasts in July 2025. Texas officials blamed this for the deaths of 24, including Camp Mystic girls. Denying it ignores facts.”

I asked Grok what the political biases are for those sources. It replied:

    • PBS: Center, slight left lean on social issues.
    • The Guardian: Left-leaning, progressive editorial stance.
    • Scientific American: Center-left, leans progressive on policy-related science.
    • Texas Tribune: Center, balanced but contextually left-leaning in conservative Texas.

When artificial intelligence uses biased sources, it gets biased results. Fake news is alive and well.

What Do Illegal Aliens Contribute To America?

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The political left has often argued that illegal aliens in America are a benefit to America. The argument is that they pay taxes and contribute to society. But what do the actual statistics say?

On Friday, The Lid posted some statistics relating to illegal aliens:

Democrats even go farther in their support for illegals and claim that they really don’t benefit from our system at all and that WE are the ones that reap all the benefits from illegal aliens.

As their argument goes, Illegals take jobs Americans won’t do. Then all the taxes they pay go into our system, but because they are not legal, they don’t file taxes and, therefore, don’t get any refunds, so they forfeit their taxes.

Like everything liberals say, there is a tiny bit of truth in there. It is true they pay taxes in the form of paycheck withholding. And, yes, they don’t legally get that money back in IRS refunds. But that is where the truth stops.

No, they don’t take jobs Americans won’t do. Americans will take those jobs when enough illegals are deported leaving those jobs open long enough.

But there is an even bigger lie in the left’s claims. Their claim that illegals are good for us because they pay taxes and we benefit is a lie.

Again, yes, some of them pay taxes. But are they really a plus for us? The answer to that is a resounding no. And the reason for that is because they take far more in government services (both federal and state) than they ever pay in taxes.

The Center for Immigration Studies noted that 59 percent of non-citizen households are on welfare of one sort or another. That is compared to only 39 percent of citizens.

The article notes that literally hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars earned by illegal aliens are sent back home to their families. That is money earned that is never put into the American economy.

The article concludes:

Illegals and other migrants who really aren’t in the U.S. to become part of our country send more money home from their U.S. paychecks than the U.S. government spends in foreign aid.

This is money 100% lost to our economy, money that doesn’t benefit local businesses, not our schools, not invested in the U.S., not anything. It is money bled out of our country, lost forever. Gone.

So, the truth is, the numbers show that liberals are liars. Illegal aliens are a net drag on this country. They don’t help us even a little bit.

Money Talks, But Can It Bring Peace?

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President Trump seems to have a gift for understanding economic leverage. This is becoming very obvious in the Middle East. He has essentially given a number of Middle Eastern Countries a choice–do you want to be economically successful or do you want to continue supporting terrorism? There will be countries that will attempt to play both sides of the fence–traditions and generational hatred are hard to overcome–but the people who rule countries understand they tend to stay in power longer if their country is prosperous. It may come down to a ruler having to decide whether he values his position enough to forgo some of his hatred toward Israel.

As I write this on Monday, the news from the Middle East is that five of the most prominent Arab sheikhs in Hebron—yes, Hebron, the heart of biblical Judea—just declared that they want to join the Abraham Accords, recognize Israel as the Jewish state, and break away from the Palestinian Authority. This is according to a Jewish News Syndicate article posted on Sunday. This might be taken as an indication that Hamas no longer has the power it once had and that Iran is no longer in a position to support Hamas. It is also being reported that Qatar (a major supporter of terrorism) has told the Hamas leaders in Qatar to lay down their weapons. Even Qatar wants peace.

Before we get too excited over this, there is something we all need to take into consideration. It is the Islamic concept of “hudna” defined as a tactical pause intended only for rearmament.

We need to remember that when we are dealing with the Islamist population of the Middle East, we are dealing with generational hatred and indoctrination. In Gaza, the indoctrination begins with telling very young children that they should be martyrs in the quest to retake Jerusalem. Overcoming this indoctrination will take time and will not be easy.

Memri.org, one of the most reliable sources for information on current events in the Middle East, recently reported that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed gave an interview to Fox News in which he called for the release of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas, for the formation of a government in Gaza that does not include this movement, and for the establishment of calm there.

Living with constant terrorism and war does not make for a stable government, and many Middle Eastern leaders want to maintain their positions. If that means joining the Abraham Accords to create prosperity in their countries and to create longevity for their rule, they may be willing to do that.

I Saw It In The News, It Must Be True–Not!

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On Saturday, PJ Media posted an article about FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino’s reply to a New York Times article claiming that Trump’s “politicized FBI” has “made Americans less safe.”

The article reports:

FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino wrote a scathing response to the article, calling it “precisely why hard-working Americans simply do not trust the media.” Bongino’s tweet, which quickly gained traction online, took direct aim at what he described as a “poorly thought out hit piece” that misrepresented the sweeping reforms he and Director Patel have implemented at the Bureau.

Bongino’s frustration was palpable as he laid out his case point by point, lambasting the Times for what he saw as a glaring lack of evidence to support their central claim. “The conclusion of the piece is so ridiculous that a child could debunk it,” Bongino wrote. He noted that the article’s authors “comically assert that you are ‘less safe’ because Kash and I have aggressively reformed the FBI. Yet, they produce NO evidence whatsoever to backup that claim. And the reason they don’t produced any evidence, is because the numbers tell the opposite story.”

Backing up his rebuttal with a barrage of statistics, Bongino offered a “small snippet of data points” that he says prove the effectiveness of the FBI’s new direction. Among the highlights, he touted the Bureau’s violent crime initiative, “Summer Heat,” which he notes has the murder rate “trending to be the lowest in U.S. history by a longshot.” He promised that “Summer Heat is coming to a city or town near you soon as we assist your community in removing criminal predators from the streets.”

Bongino didn’t stop there. He detailed that the FBI’s renewed focus on violent crime has led to the arrest of 14,000 violent criminals—a 62% increase from the same period last year. “We rescued over one hundred children from being preyed on, while arresting over 825 violent child predators, and 140 human traffickers,” he added.

It’s amazing how much the FBI can accomplish when it stops going after parents who attend school board meetings or attend the Catholic church.

Just another reason not to trust the mainstream media.

Good News For Everyone

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On Saturday, The Associated Press reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will boost their oil production starting in August. 

The article reports:

Eight members of the OPEC+ alliance of oil exporting countries say they will boost production by 548,000 barrels per day in August in a move that could further reduce gas prices this year.

The group that includes Saudi Arabia and Russia made the decision at a virtual meeting Saturday. They cited a “steady global economic outlook” and low oil inventories.

Oil prices spiked sharply last month during the bloody, 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran but then tumbled back down as the U.S. helped broker a peace deal after dropping bombs on three of Iran’s key nuclear sites.

Saudi Arabia holds significant influence in OPEC+ as the dominant member of the OPEC producers’ cartel, and Russia is the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance.

Along with Saudi Arabia and Russia, the group that met Saturday is made up of Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

This move has positive and negative implications. On the positive side, the cost of crude oil is likely to drop if production is increased (Law of Supply and Demand). On the negative side, that will impact American oil companies–their profits will be reduced as the price goes down–oil is a worldwide commodity. On the positive side, that may end the war between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian economy needs oil prices to be at least $60 a barrel. Currently prices are at about $66 a barrel. If they drop to $50 a barrel, the Russian economy and the Russian war effort will struggle financially. If the Russian people are unhappy enough, we might even see regime change in Russia.

The price of oil isn’t only about the price of oil. We found that out in the late 1970’s. In a world economy based on fossil fuel, the price of oil is very important. As President Trump’s policy of “drill, baby, drill” takes effect, its impact will be felt worldwide.

Recognition Long Overdue

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I first heard of the Culper Spy ring when I read Brian Kilmeade’s book George Washington’s Secret Six: The Spy Ring That Saved the American Revolution. The spy ring was based on Long Island and generally consisted of people who had known each other since childhood. That is how they avoided being infiltrated. The book is fascinating, and I strongly recommend it. Among other things, it deals with Benedict Arnold, how he was discovered, and why he was not returned to America to stand trial.

On July 4th, The New York Post reported:

Long Island’s newest steakhouse is a fascinating nod to the Culper spy ring, a local group of Revolutionary War double agents whose heroic espionage efforts saved the colonial forces on multiple occasions.

“As we were going through school, we learned about the spy ring and the effect it had on the American Revolution,” Scott Brittman, part owner of Culper’s 1778, which opened in Setauket two weeks ago, told The Post.

…The new eatery is filled with Revolutionary War-themed decor, including prints of the Battle of Setauket, a print of the Declaration of Independence, a life-size replica musket, and an original US flag, to name a few.

However, Brittman’s team truly committed to the theme by tracking down and recreating George Washington’s spiced cherry brandy drink of choice, which he often carried, as per the first president’s journal.

“The Commander,” as it’s called, is served infused with lemon and cinnamon and stands among a bevy of Colonial cocktails — like Benedict Arnold’s “The Traitor,” made with vodka and, fittingly, tea.

There is also the gin-based “Agent 355,” a nod to a female member whose identity is still unknown, in addition to “The Clothesline” Ketel One libation, which pays homage to how Setauket Culper spy Anna Smith Strong sent signals by laying out her laundry in covert patterns.

“There’s been a lot of people that have come in here from different towns who are big history buffs,” Brittman said, adding that Culper’s will be closed on July 4 in observance of Independence Day.

The article explains who the Culpers were:

Washington’s secret agents were a brave band of at least seven known members, according to Christopher Judge, a longtime educator at Oyster Bay’s Raynham Hall Museum, which is the former home of Cupler spy Robert Townsend.

Setauket native Benjamin Tallmadge led the clandestine group on British-occupied LI alongside his tight-knit allies, Abraham Woodhull and Caleb Brewster, circa 1778, the year in which the restaurant is named.

“They were all childhood friends, and they knew they could trust each other with their lives. They all agreed to stand against what they considered the tyranny of the British,” said Judge.

“You could almost say that they were the CIA of the time — and predecessor to James Bond.”

Sounds like a wonderful restaurant to visit!

A Prelude To The End Of The War?

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On Thursday, Ed Morrissey at Hot Air posted an article about the rapid changes happening in the war in Gaza. Hamas is in an awkward position now that a lot of the leadership in Iran has been removed. It is not clear how much funding Hamas continues to get from Iran. Evidently other countries in the Middle East have taken note of the recent actions against Iran.

The article reports:

Symbolic? Maybe, maybe not. If true, Hamas leaders didn’t just get a soft ultimatum from Donald Trump this week. 

Yesterday, Trump warned Hamas that the final deal for a cease-fire in Gaza was on the table, and that all other options would get “MUCH WORSE.” Qatar may have decided to raise the stakes to something more personal for Hamas’ billionaire clique in Doha:

Doha-based senior Hamas leaders have been told to lay down their arms as part of the efforts to reach a ceasefire deal with Israel, according to a Thursday morning report from The Times newspaper. …

The Times stated that those told to lay down their weapons were “the most senior Hamas leaders outside Gaza,  including the lead negotiator Khalil al-Hayya and other key figures.”

One of the key figures reportedly included Hamas political ­bureau member Zaher Jabareen, “a founder of the group’s military wing in the West Bank.”

An additional bureau member told to lay down weapons was Muhammad Ismail Darwish, who had “met the leaders of Iran and Turkey this year while shuttling between Cairo and Doha for indirect negotiations with Israel,” the report said.

The Times credits this as a “symbolic reflection of Hamas’ interest in the ceasefire proposal,” but that doesn’t make much sense. If Hamas wanted to send that kind of signal, their Qatar contingent would have voluntarily and unilaterally disarmed. They wouldn’t have needed the Qataris to order them to disarm.

That makes this sound like a much different kind of signal. The Qataris are likely as tired of playing the Hamas Hokey Pokey as everyone else, for one thing, while their leadership fattens up on “aid” meant for Palestinians. However, it may mean more than that, especially after the strike on Fordow by Trump and the B-2 bombers. That didn’t just send a signal to Tehran, but to Doha as well — and the rocket fire on Qatar afterward probably didn’t help, either.

This is definitely a wait-and-see moment. It is very possible that the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities may have had a larger impact than initially realized.

A Very Good Question

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On Saturday, Legal Insurrection posted the following headline:

If Illegals Aren’t Receiving Federal Medicaid Benefits, Why Are Blue States Suing to Protect Their Data?

The article reports:

Democrats have consistently maintained that while some illegal immigrants receive state-level Medicaid benefits, they do not receive federal Medicaid benefits. If that’s true, then why are Democratic attorneys general from blue states suing the federal government to prevent Medicaid data from being used for immigration enforcement? Are they genuinely concerned about potential violations of privacy laws, or more likely, are they attempting to protect those undocumented immigrants who may, in fact, be enrolled in federal Medicaid programs?

Led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, 20 blue states have filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California alleging that the Trump administration “violated federal privacy laws when it turned over Medicaid data on millions of enrollees to deportation officials last month.”

Among the plaintiffs in the case are Illinois, New York, Minnesota, and Massachusetts, along with fifteen other states. Defendants include Health and Human Services Department Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

The article quotes an article at Hot Air:

HotAir’s David Strom states it plainly:

Democrats are playing a verbal shell game, pointing to federal law to say that Medicaid dollars can’t legally go to illegal aliens, so there is no money to be saved by cutting those funds off. At the same time, they are suing to hide the legal status of recipients to prevent them from facing ICE deportations–in other words, they are illegally spending Medicaid dollars for illegals and want to hide them from the feds.

The narratives don’t have to be consistent, right?

If you were to sit down and analyze what Democrats say to make their arguments on various issues, you would see narrative fails like this all the time. But because the issues are discussed in different contexts, the contradictions don’t stand out to many people.

Viewed from another perspective, if Medicaid benefits for undocumented immigrants are truly only a state issue, then why did this become a matter for the Senate Parliamentarian during consideration of a major federal spending bill? And why was it included in the Senate’s vote-a-rama on Monday, as I discussed here?

As Strom concludes, “The story is always changing to fit the desired result.”

It doesn’t have to make sense. Because they’re Democrats.

Whatever happens with this lawsuit, deportations of illegal criminals will save American taxpayers money.

As Nobel prize-winning economist Milton Friedman once stated, “It’s just obvious you can’t have free immigration and a welfare state.”

A Significant Year For The Supreme Court

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On July 3rd, The Epoch Times posted an article listing the nine key Supreme Court decisions this term.

Here is the list:

1. Nationwide Injunctions

The Supreme Court issued a landmark opinion on June 27 in which it ruled against the practice of judges issuing nationwide injunctions.

2. Gender Procedures for Minors

In June, the Supreme Court released its hotly anticipated decision in United States v. Skrmetti, which involved the Biden administration’s challenge to Tennessee’s law banning “gender-affirming care” for minors.

…The court’s 6–3 majority upheld Tennessee’s law.

3. Deportations

Trump scored an initial win when the Supreme Court removed two blocks that a federal judge in Washington had imposed on the deportations.

However, part of the ruling also stated that Trump must provide an opportunity for deportees to seek habeas relief, which is a legal mechanism for challenging one’s detention.

4. TikTok Divestiture or Ban

In 2024, Congress passed the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act.

It required TikTok’s Chinese parent company to either divest its U.S. business or cease operations within the United States because of data privacy and national security concerns.

…The Supreme Court ultimately upheld the law on Jan. 17.

In a unanimous decision, the court said that the law satisfied a standard known as “intermediate scrutiny,” noting that it served the important government interest of preventing TikTok’s Chinese parent company from capturing the personal data of American users.

5. Mexico Gun Lawsuit

U.S. gun makers successfully avoided liability in a lawsuit that the Mexican government brought over the flow of U.S. firearms to cartels.

Under the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, gun companies can usually avoid liability for how people use their firearms.

…Writing for the majority, Justice Elena Kagan said that Mexico’s lawsuit did not plausibly allege that the gun companies “aided and abetted unlawful sales routing guns to Mexican drug cartels.”

6. Straight Woman Wins Discrimination Case

A heterosexual woman’s win at the Supreme Court established that non-minorities may sue on an equal footing with minorities in employment discrimination lawsuits.

7. Opting Out of LGBT Storybooks

Parents won the right to sue to opt their young children out of school storybooks that promote LGBT lifestyles in a Supreme Court ruling on June 27.

8. Porn Age-Verification Laws

State laws requiring pornography websites to verify the age of users will remain in place following a Supreme Court ruling on June 27.

9. South Carolina Defunds Planned Parenthood

States have greater leeway to defund Planned Parenthood, the nation’s largest abortion provider, following a Supreme Court decision on June 26.

I think it has been a good year for common sense.

Offering An Option

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On Wednesday, Breitbart posted an article about the new illegal detention center that has opened in Florida. The center has been called “Alligator Alcatraz,” “Gator Gitmo,” and “Crocodile Rock.”

The article reports:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis explained on Tuesday that illegal aliens who are going through intake at “Alligator Alcatraz” — a detention facility to house, process, and deport illegal aliens — have the option to voluntarily self-deport before entering the front door.

DeSantis said on Tuesday that when they do they intake of illegal immigrants, they explain the option of voluntarily departing.

“So right when you do the intake, they have the information about voluntary departure. They have the ability, obviously, you guys are funding that, because it’s a lot cheaper to do it that way,” DeSantis said.

“So, even if they get brought to the front doorstep here, they still have an opportunity to just go back voluntarily,” he explained.

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem also drove this point home while touring the facility on Tuesday.

“If they self-deport and go home, they can come back legally. We will let them come back,” she told reporters as President Donald Trump added, “And there is a lot of self-deportation.”

“If you wait and we bring you to this facility, you don’t ever get to come back to America. You don’t get the chance to come back and be an American again,” she warned, reiterating that point later on as well during the roundtable discussion.

The article concludes:

In May, DHS announced the option for illegal aliens to self-deport with flight assistance and a stipend of $1,000 — which they would receive once they are confirmed to have left the country — noting that this is far more cost-efficient for the American taxpayer.

“Even with the cost of the stipend, it is projected that the use of CBP Home will decrease the costs of a deportation by around 70 percent,” DHS noted in the press release. “Currently the average cost to arrest, detain, and remove an illegal alien is $17,121.”

As fewer people are able to illegally enter America, detention centers like this will become obsolete.

The View From The Lair

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Independence Day

I apologize if this is late – all days end in “Y” and keeping up with them is…problematic.

This year marks the 250th anniversary of this great republic. For the ignorant liberals (I know, redundant) who might be reading this, we do NOT have a democracy. If you think that then you were likely educated under the Department of Education guidelines. Which are being corrected as you read this.

We fought a war to acquire our freedom from England. We are in the midst of another to hold our republic from the tentacles of Marxist domination. The absolute ignorance of the people of this great nation is astounding. But, again, thank you Jimmy Carter for the DOE. (Jerk. That is all I can include here, regardless of how much I want to expound.)

The Marxists wish this was a democracy. They are trying to convert our republic into one. Having a democracy means that a simple majority rules, not laws. The Marxists are joining with the Islamists to wrest control from the educated – those who have read and understand history. Obviously, that does not include anyone in NYC who voted for the Socialist.

There are two schools of thought on NYC and the socialist movement:

One: let him win and see how long before the lights go out on Broadway, as well as the rest of Manhattan and the other boroughs. They will. Follow Mandami’s plan, and the only lights you will have in NYC will be from the burning cars and buildings.

Two: establish a consortium of rivals to elect someone else. ANYONE else.

With NYC on the east coast and Kommifornia on the west (not to mention Seattle and Porland), the fuses are lit for another great battle, another battle for the independence of this great republic.

The subjects of Kommifornia have little to say about the operation of their feudal domain. The soon-to-be subjects of NYC may join them.

The riots in LA are the result of Marxist money being poured into the Anarchist’s movement. Like too many “movements” of the past, the participants are stooges for the instigators. I expect the same will happen in NYC. The tragedy is that the people who are being led will gain nothing. The instigators will inflict monetary damage on the citizens and perhaps now will have to answer for their crimes. I hope so. This “movement” in LA has the same product as a “movement” from excess fiber.

I hope that this instigation can be stopped. Our current POTUS is the only one who has the courage and tenacity to see this through. I hope and pray that he will survive long enough to do so.

As you grill your burgers, chicken and ribs, think about what our freedoms mean to you. And will you be willing to fight to keep them?

I will. Carry heavy. Be prepared.

Happy Independence Day

ciao,

The Snark

A Practical Approach

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I love the idea of my Social Security not being taxed. Before 1984 Social Security payments were not taxed. The law that taxed Social Security benefits allowed 50% of benefits to be taxable for individuals with income above certain thresholds [income above $25,000 (single) or $32,000 (couple)]. In 1993, the taxation level was increased to 85% for higher-income beneficiaries [$34,000 (single) or $44,000 (couple)].  In today’s dollars, $44,000 is about $98,000.00. These totals were not indexed for inflation. This is another example of the government using inflation to increase its tax revenue as Americans struggle to pay for things.

The Big Beautiful Bill did not directly end the tax on Social Security. What it did do was to increase the standard deduction for Americans over the age of 65. This not only avoids a mess of paperwork, but will automatically provide more benefit to low-income Americans. The downside is that the more people who don’t have to pay taxes, the fewer people care if taxes are raised. Everyone needs skin in the game.

This is a chart of the changes made by the Big Beautiful Bill:

Changing the tax laws in this manner will save a lot of people a lot of paperwork (and receipt searching) and make it easier for people over the age of 65 to file their income taxes. I pray for the day that the tax form is a postcard-size piece of paper that takes five minutes to fill out. Our tax code is a tribute to the power of lobbyists, and that needs to change. Let’s go to a flat tax or a national sales tax. What we have no is expensive in both time and money.

The June Jobs Report Is Out

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On June 3rd, Fox Business posted an article about the June Jobs Report. The economy is improving rapidly, but there are still some weak spots.

The article reports:

The U.S. economy added jobs in June at a faster pace than in recent months, despite economic uncertainty stemming from trade, tax and monetary policy.

The Labor Department on Thursday reported that employers added 147,000 jobs in June. That figure was above the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who projected 110,000 jobs would be added.

The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%, which was lower than economists’ expectations of 4.3%.

Job gains in the prior two months were both revised, with job creation in April revised up by 11,000 from a gain of 147,000 to 158,000; and May job gains were revised up by 5,000 from a gain of 139,000 to 144,000. Taken together, employment in April and May was 16,000 jobs higher than previously reported.

The workforce participation rate has remained steady.

I don’t know how to reconcile this information with a post from CNBC on Wednesday that reported:

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

The article at Fox Business concludes:

“The U.S. job market continues to largely stand tall and sturdy, even as headwinds mount – but it may be a tent increasingly held up by fewer poles,” said Cory Stahle, Indeed Hiring Lab economist. “The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare and social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will likely ring hollow.”

The market viewed the June jobs report as solidifying the outlook for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for its fifth consecutive meeting later this month. 

The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in July declined from 23.8% a day ago to 6.7% on Thursday following the report’s release, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

We need an interest cut now to help with the government’s interest payments and to help the real estate market. Right now the real estate market is being held hostage by the refusal to cut interest rates.

Getting On Board With American Energy Independence

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On June 29th, Real Clear Energy posted an article about Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry’s plans to increase energy production in his state.

The article reports:

President Donald J. Trump’s energy plans to promote oil and gas production can reset the world stage, and Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry is on board. This month he signed into law a bill that prioritizes production of fossil fuels and nuclear power, rather than wind and solar power, in his state.

The new law, Act 462 (formerly HB 692), sponsored by Rep. Jacob Landry (no relation to Gov. Landry), requires the Louisiana Department of Energy and Natural Resources to focus on production of domestic fuel, rather than energy sources that rely on foreign countries for materials. The law extends the definition of green energy to nuclear power and natural gas.

This law is so obvious that it is surprising that it needs to be passed at all, especially in Louisiana, which has no requirement to produce electricity from wind and solar power. Rates, at 13 cents per kilowatt hour, are below the U.S. average, but they have risen steadily from 9 cents per kilowatt hour in 2020.

Just to provide some perspective, the cost of a kilowatt hour of electricity in Massachusetts, where there are wind farms, is 33 cents. In New York State it is 26 cents. In Virginia and North Carolina, the cost is 14 cents. States with liberal governments don’t seem to be able to keep electricity prices low.

The article notes:

Lower U.S. electricity prices will reduce manufacturing costs in America, attracting foreign investment and creating jobs. In emerging economies, more support for fossil fueled power plants will lower energy prices.

The U.S. has approximately 1.7 trillion barrels of technically recoverable oil and over 4 quadrillion cubic feet of technically recoverable natural gas resources. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed increasing US production by 3 million barrels per year, potentially driving prices below $50 a barrel.

Oil prices below $50 a barrel would be a problem for the Russian economy and could possibly end the Russia-Ukraine War (due to Russia no longer being able to finance it).

The article concludes:

Similarly, the new Louisiana law specifically calls for “minimizing reliance on foreign nations for critical materials or manufacturing by prioritizing infrastructure necessary to deliver energy to Louisiana customers.”

Cheaper energy caused by additional U.S. production and loans for fossil-fuel power plants would also benefit people in emerging economies, especially Africa and Latin America, without reliable electricity and cheap fuel. Lower oil prices empower countries with poor electricity distribution, lowering costs of diesel generators, used by businesses and households.

The federal government is shifting to energy dominance, but states can still stand in the way. Louisiana’s new law provides a model for other states to follow.

Let’s stop depending on China for our energy infrastructure.

One Unusual Economic Indicator

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There were hysterics when President Trump took office and instituted tariffs on countries that had instituted tariffs on America for years. The tariffs would cause inflation (in 2022 inflation peaked at 9 percent in June). Inflation is now at roughly 2.3 percent. The President was blamed for the rapidly rising price of eggs (after the Biden administration found a reason to kill millions of chickens). Many restaurants added a surcharge to egg dishes to compensate for the high price of eggs. Waffle House was one of those restaurants.

On Wednesday, PJ Media reported:

Waffle House is a pillar of American culture. A refuge for the hungover, an arena for the absurd, and a beacon for those on a budget, Waffle House delivers on the American melting pot promise — one that is scattered, smothered, and covered. When the chain slapped a 50-cent surcharge on each egg (which are freshly cracked to order, by the way) in February 2025, it echoed the supply and demand quagmire every American felt at the grocery store.

Brooke Rollins, President Trump’s Secretary of Agriculture, told Fox Business:

When President Trump entered office, the cost of eggs was at a record high, seriously denting consumers’ wallets after years of awful inflation. On my first day as Secretary, we got to work to implement a five-pronged strategy to improve biosecurity on the farm and lower egg prices on grocery store shelves. The plan has worked, and families are seeing relief with egg prices driving food deflation in the April Consumer Price Index.

The plan has indeed worked. Yesterday, Waffle House announced the repeal of the surcharge on X.

The article concludes:

To celebrate the Trump administration’s success, I encourage all red-blooded Americans embarking on the Great American Road Trip this Fourth of July weekend to park under the vivid yellow and black waffle sign and order to their heart’s content. After all, this holiday is all about freedom from tyranny, economic opportunity, and the right to peaceably assemble. Unless you order cheese in your grits, because then there will be fireworks.

Thanks to President Trump, consumer costs are starting to come down, and inflation is stabilizing. To the surprise of no one with a functioning brain, our economy does better under a president who knows what he’s doing.

The Waffle House menu is also used as a gauge to the severity of a disaster by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

This is the chart used:

Adding Insult To Injury–And It’s Beautiful

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On July 1st, The Hill reported:

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the official end of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on Tuesday, after rapidly dismantling the government’s foreign aid arm since President Trump’s return to the White House.

USAID’s official shutdown comes following a study published Monday in the Lancet Medical journal projecting that more than 14 million additional deaths could occur globally as a result of the U.S. aid reductions, including 4.5 million deaths among children. 

Wow! Millions of deaths could result around the world if America stops funding one supposedly non-governmental agency. How is it a non-governmental agency if the government is funding it? I didn’t realize our government was so powerful.

On June 30th, Power Line Blog noted:

There are something like 195 independent nations on the planet, and not a single one, other than America, is capable of helping any of the others. No one. Not a single Euro, Yen, pound, franc, peso, etc., can be freed up to prevent mass genocide on a biblical scale.

…America contains just over 4 percent of the world’s population and generates about 24 percent of the world’s economic output. Yet a single U.S. government agency that you hadn’t even heard of before January 2025 was providing 40 percent of global humanitarian aid and single-handedly sustaining life on earth.

…It also bears mentioning that the Lancet, once a respected medical journal, is now a left-wing rag that loves to publish specious “studies” like this one.

On July 1st (this is the icing on the cake) The Daily Caller reported:

The FBI will relocate its moth-eaten headquarters from the Hoover Building to the Ronald Reagan Building downtown after the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) vacated the complex, officials announced Tuesday.

The shuffle caps nearly 20 years of bureaucratic waffling over where to park the nation’s premier law enforcement agency. By opting for a ready-made federal property — freshly emptied when USAID officially shuttered operations Tuesday — the Trump administration says it will save taxpayers billions while giving agents a secure, modern workplace.

This is one of many reasons we elected a businessman as President!

Who Does Congress Represent?

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Theoretically, Congress represents the will of the American people. The House of Representatives is set up according to the population of each state–states with larger populations get more Representatives. The Senate has two Senators from every state regardless of population. The census determines what the numbers are. The law requires an American census every ten years. Some years the census has had a question regarding citizenship on its long form, and some years there was no long form. President Trump is asking that the citizenship question be added to the short form. Congress is supposed to represent Americans–not citizens of other countries who live her for various reasons. Adding the citizenship question and apportioning representatives accordingly would provide a more representative government. If non citizens are not counted in the census, California and New York would have fewer representatives in Congress and those states would receive less federal funds.

On June 30th, Just the News reported:

The Supreme Court has never made a determination on the legal merits of the argument that noncitizens should not be counted in the United States census, but may soon be forced to do so.

The fight to clarify the census and subsequently adjust congressional seats, Electoral College votes and federal funding, is coming down the pike, according to White House deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller. 

Miller indicated last month that he’s eager to dive straight in and that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will help lead the effort. 

Trump has at his disposal a number of avenues to accomplish his goal, one of which includes Lutnick’s agency. Utilizing this route, the Commerce Department could propose adding a census question to distinguish citizens, legal permanent residents, and unauthorized immigrants, as suggested by a lawsuit filed by Republican-led states and the Department of Commerce in January 2025. The data could then be used to exclude noncitizens from apportionment, though not necessarily from the overall count. 

The article notes:

In 2020, the Trump administration sought to exclude noncitizens from the U.S. Census count which is used to apportion congressional seats and Electoral College votes, a move that sparked significant controversy. In July of that year, President Donald Trump issued a memorandum directing the Census Bureau to use administrative records to identify and exclude undocumented immigrants from the apportionment count, arguing that including them dilutes the political power of citizens and constitutes voter suppression.

The administration argued that the Constitution’s mandate to count “persons” did not explicitly require counting noncitizens for apportionment. This effort faced immediate legal challenges from blue states and cities, many of which were sanctuary jurisdictions, and immigrant advocacy groups, who argued the policy violated the Constitution and would discourage immigrant participation in the census, potentially undercounting communities with large noncitizen populations.

This is a battle to watch. The question is, “Who is Congress supposed to represent?”

Policies Make A Difference

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On June 28th, Yahoo Finance posted an article about the impact of President Trump’s tariffs. If nothing else, the numbers prove that taxes are not the only way to get funds into the United States Treasury.

The article reports:

President Trump’s tariffs are pouring billions more into US coffers in June, putting the revenue supplied by importers on pace for another monthly record.

The latest measure of government receipts for “Customs and Certain Excise Taxes” stood at almost $27 billion for the month of June, according to the Treasury Department’s latest daily statement dated June 25.

The monthly total is likely to rise only slightly in the coming days, with importers often depositing their tariff duties in a single day and the June 24 statement showing a massive daily deposit of more than $19.9 billion.

June’s total so far has already topped May’s total haul of about $22 billion — not to mention April and March totals of $17.4 billion and $9.6 billion, respectively.

It was a continuation of revenue spikes seen during Trump’s second term in office that are dwarfing counts from recent history as well as the amounts collected during Trump’s first term.

All told, more than $121 billion has flowed into government coffers since the start of this fiscal year.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick touted the pace of deposits earlier this week in a social media post that criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

“What he avoids discussing is the incredible revenue increase the US has received from these tariffs,” Lutnick said in his post, suggesting the US’s “current run rate” is for more than $30 billion per month.

The article concludes:

The June uptick in revenues, in any case, is on a pace of roughly $1 billion a day in revenue and that remains a tiny fraction of all monthly government spending.

In May — the most recent full month of data available — total government receipts totaled $371 billion.

In recent decades, tariff revenue has tended to constitute about 2% of federal revenue. The surge in recent months has changed that, with revenues now accounting for closer to 4%-5% of that revenue.

Now if Congress would finally cut spending, we might be able to get rid of our massive interest payments.

The Big Beautiful Bill Has Passed The Senate

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Breitbart reported on Tuesday that the Big Beautiful Bill has passed the Senate. Vice-President J.D. Vance cast the tie-breaking vote. The bill now goes back to the House of Representatives where the first procedural vote is expected to happen on Wednesday.

The article reports:

The bill includes an enormous assemblage of Trump’s campaign promises on border security, energy, national security, spending cuts, and taxes. The bill also includes Medicaid reforms and an increase in defense spending.

It didn’t come easy.

“Tensions have been high at times, but we’re at the end now,” Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC), the Budget Committee Chairman, said with enthusiasm through bloodshot eyes during the final vote series.

…At 10:12 am EST, Senators were instructed to make their way to the Floor and plan to be in their seats in 15 minutes. Over an hour later, a large group of Senators was still huddled at the dais negotiating with the help of Senate staff, including Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth McDonough.

Eventually an agreement was reached, and the Senate, anxious to end the marathon session, breezed through the final votes.

Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Rand Paul (R-KY), who voted against proceeding to the bill, voted against its passage. They were joined by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), whose amendment to raise taxes on billionaires to pay for a fund for rural hospitals was soundly defeated – her amendment received a bipartisan smattering of 22 votes.

Sen. Lisa Murkowksi (R-AK) required a last minute agreement on a Medicaid carveout for her state after the Senate parliamentarian ruled the prior agreement violated the much ballyhooed Byrd rule which governs what can be included in reconciliation bills.

The article concludes:

The path ahead is arduous.

The big, beautiful bill now heads to the House, where a handful of moderates have protested the Medicaid reforms, and a large block of spending hawks, mostly consisting of House Freedom Caucus members, want more spending cuts in line with the version of the bill the House sent to the Senate.

The first procedural vote is expected Wednesday morning at 9 am.

Yet Trump’s July 4 deadline remains in reach. And Trump is likely to lobby, cajole, threaten, and twist arms – or whatever else is necessary – to secure his signature legislative achievement.

This is not a perfect bill, but it is a beginning. Now it’s time for Congress to start voting on spending cuts.

H.R.4 – Rescissions Act of 2025 has already passed the house. This bill rescinds $9.4 billion in unobligated funds that were provided to the Department of State, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), various independent and related agencies, and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

The rescissions were proposed by the President under procedures included in the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974. Under current law, the President may propose rescissions to Congress using specified procedures, and the rescissions must be enacted into law to take effect.

For further information on this bill, go to Congress.gov and put “H.R.4” in the search engine.

It is possible to cut spending–we just need a Congress willing to do it.

Moving Toward American Energy Independence

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American energy independence is a really good idea. We say during the 1970’s what dependence on foreign oil can do to our economy and our gasoline supply. America has the resources to be energy independent, and some of what we are learning indicates that fossil fuel is not as limited as we once thought.

On June 25th, The Washington Free Beacon reported:

The Trump administration announced a Gulf of America oil and gas lease sale that would span roughly 80 million acres, an area that is larger than the United Kingdom.

The behemoth lease sale, which will be the first offshore lease sale since President Donald Trump took office, is scheduled for December 2025 and will offer 15,000 blocks of federal waters across the entire gulf. Companies with winning bids will be subject to a reduced royalty rate, something that could potentially drive greater industry interest and participation in the sale, according to the Department of the Interior (DOI).

It is the latest action the Trump administration has taken in pursuit of its aggressive energy dominance and “drill, baby, drill” agenda. The announcement also represents a U-turn from the Biden administration’s approach to drilling, which involved shutting down oil production, canceling offshore lease sales, and hiking royalty fees for producers.

The article concludes:

“Today’s announcement marks another step in a new path forward for safe and responsible U.S. offshore development after years of roadblocks that hampered energy investment in the Gulf of America,” American Petroleum Institute’s senior vice president of policy, economics, and regulatory affairs Dustin Meyer said in a statement Wednesday.

“It underscores the vital role the Gulf of America plays in providing affordable, reliable energy, supporting hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs, and reinforcing our national security,” added Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, an industry group that represents offshore energy developers.

Having a businessman for President is going to be a good thing for all Americans who are willing to participate in the workforce.

The Possible vs The Impossible

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 Author:  R. Alan Harrop, Ph.D.

We are currently observing the realities of the legislative process in a true representative republic. President Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” has been a tedious process, but an absolutely crucial one. Our country has been so influenced by the Biden administration’s and the Democrat Party’s Marxist policies, that something drastic and comprehensive is needed if we are to reverse course and return to the traditional conservative values and policies that built this country.

 The first problem is that Congress has increasing gotten themselves into the habit of drafting very large, overly complicated bills instead of smaller bills ideally focusing on a single issue rather than a multiplicity of issues. The Big Beautiful Bill contains over 1900 pages and took over 16 hours to be read out loud on the floor of the Senate. While reading the bill out loud seems to make sense, the hypocritical Democrat senators who insisted on this did not even attend the reading! Just another effort to block the passage of the bill. One of the primary reasons that large multiple issue bills have become the standard is they allow congressman to attach issues that would likely never be approved if voted on individually. It also makes it very difficult, if not impossible, for the average citizen to understand what is actually in the bill and thereby evaluate whether their congressman is doing what they promised while campaigning.

 The second problem is the power and influence of big donors. Political campaigns are increasingly costly, requiring millions of dollars. While campaigns funded by the voters reflecting their wishes would be ideal, congressman are increasingly reliant on donors (like big pharmaceutical companies, and political action committees) for campaign funding. These big donors obviously expect to receive something for their investment which can unduly influence bill drafting and congressional voting.

The third problem is the grand standers. Senators like Rand Paul and, more locally, Thom Tillis have shown that making personal statements is more important than what is best for the country. All congressman should vote the wishes of their constituents if they truly believe in representative democracy. They are elected to vote for the what their voters want, not crusade for something they want. This is especially clear with Senator Tillis who states that he will vote with the Democrats and the hell with the Republican voters who elected him. This arrogance and violation of his duty to his constituents is typical of him. In fact, in June 2023, Senator Tillis was censured by the North Carolina Republican Party convention for supporting typical Democrat Party issues like LGBTQ rights, illegal immigration, and restricting citizens gun rights. He also voted for the Democrat so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which was in reality, a major funding of green energy scams. Facing a likely primary battle in the next election, instead of bowing out gracefully, he thumbs his nose at his constituents and President Trump by announcing he would join Senator Rand Paul and vote against the Big Beautiful Bill. I say good riddance to him.

The fourth problem is how large multi-issue bills will always contain items that individual congressmen oppose. How should they deal with this reality? All decision making in the real world includes pros and cons. Very rarely is a major issue without things we would prefer be different. The symbol of a two-sided scale works well here. We typically have to balance the good with the bad. The possible with the impossible. Given the realities of these multiple issue bills, accepting this reality is critical. Personally, I would have preferred more cuts to federal spending and regulations as well as downsizing government agencies. However, a good start was made in this direction and should be recognized. This bill represents the possible and deserves support as does President Trump.

Lying To Congress Is Not A Good Idea

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been in President Trump’s doghouse lately for his refusal to lower interest rates despite the lack of inflation. He has now tripped over his feet in his testimony to Congress about the plans for revamping the central bank’s Washington headquarters.

On Monday, The New York Post reported:

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is being accused of lying to Congress after he denied that a $2.5 billion revamp of the central bank’s Washington headquarters will load the facility with lavish amenities — and some are demanding that he be punished, The Post has learned.

Powell called The Post’s exclusive report in April about the bloated renovation project — which led Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) to liken it to the “Palace of Versailles” during a grilling by the Senate Banking Committee last week — “misleading and inaccurate.”

“There’s no VIP dining room, there’s no new marble. There are no special elevators,” Powell insisted under questioning from the powerful panel on Wednesday. “There are no new water features, there’s no beehives, and there’s no roof terrace gardens.”

Well, not so fast.

The article continues:

But Powell — who is meanwhile facing heat from President Trump over a failure to slash interest rates — directly contradicted the project’s own planning documents, which were signed off on by government pen pushers in 2021 — and which haven’t been revised since.

“The private dining rooms on Level 4 (of the Fed’s Eccles building) will be restored,” reads one excerpt from the filing with the National Capital Planning Commission. “The Governors’ private elevator will be extended to discharge at the dining suite level.”

The documents also expressly mention “vegetated roof terraces” that will welcome “urban wildlife and pollinators” as well as new marble and water features.

Andrew T. Levin — a professor of economics at Dartmouth College who served as an economist and advisor to the Fed’s board from 1992 to 2012 — urged Congress to step in and punish Powell for lying to lawmakers.

“A top Fed official cannot be permitted to make false statements under oath at a congressional hearing. Such statements must be promptly corrected, and in egregious cases, subject to censure by the Senate,” Levin said.

…The revelations are controversial at a time when the Fed is struggling with mounting losses, which stand at a total of $233 billion from the past three years.

Stay tuned. There may be some changes coming sooner than expected at the fed.