Tag Archives: Yahoo Finance

Policies Make A Difference

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On June 28th, Yahoo Finance posted an article about the impact of President Trump’s tariffs. If nothing else, the numbers prove that taxes are not the only way to get funds into the United States Treasury.

The article reports:

President Trump’s tariffs are pouring billions more into US coffers in June, putting the revenue supplied by importers on pace for another monthly record.

The latest measure of government receipts for “Customs and Certain Excise Taxes” stood at almost $27 billion for the month of June, according to the Treasury Department’s latest daily statement dated June 25.

The monthly total is likely to rise only slightly in the coming days, with importers often depositing their tariff duties in a single day and the June 24 statement showing a massive daily deposit of more than $19.9 billion.

June’s total so far has already topped May’s total haul of about $22 billion — not to mention April and March totals of $17.4 billion and $9.6 billion, respectively.

It was a continuation of revenue spikes seen during Trump’s second term in office that are dwarfing counts from recent history as well as the amounts collected during Trump’s first term.

All told, more than $121 billion has flowed into government coffers since the start of this fiscal year.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick touted the pace of deposits earlier this week in a social media post that criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

“What he avoids discussing is the incredible revenue increase the US has received from these tariffs,” Lutnick said in his post, suggesting the US’s “current run rate” is for more than $30 billion per month.

The article concludes:

The June uptick in revenues, in any case, is on a pace of roughly $1 billion a day in revenue and that remains a tiny fraction of all monthly government spending.

In May — the most recent full month of data available — total government receipts totaled $371 billion.

In recent decades, tariff revenue has tended to constitute about 2% of federal revenue. The surge in recent months has changed that, with revenues now accounting for closer to 4%-5% of that revenue.

Now if Congress would finally cut spending, we might be able to get rid of our massive interest payments.

Walmart and Tariffs

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President Trump announced his tariff plan yesterday. Generally speaking, liberals are crying, “The sky is falling.” The stock market is down today, but will probably be back up in a week or so after the impact of the tariffs is calculated. One indication of how things might go is what is happening with Walmart.

A friend of mine summed it up:

“U.S. retailing giant Walmart,” Reuters reported, “is continuing to push Chinese suppliers to cut prices to offset President Donald Trump’s tariffs.” In other words, to stay competitive, foreign governments must cut their prices, to stay competitive. They must cut prices to precisely offset the tariffs. That is why foreign suppliers actually pay for tariffs, and not Americans.

To put it differently, it is true the tariff is charged at the port of entry. But if Chinese factories want to keep selling here, they must lower their prices to absorb the hit, because consumers won’t pay. Foreign producers indirectly pay the tariff through lowered prices, or they lose market share.

It’s that simple.

Here’s how it works in real life: If a Chinese plasma TV costs $1,000 and there’s a 10% tariff, the U.S. government collects $100. Walmart tells the Chinese supplier, “We’re not eating that cost. Cut your price to $900 or we’ll stop buying.” So the Chinese factory promptly cuts its price to stay in business.

The result is that the U.S. Treasury gets paid, Chinese exporters take the loss, and American consumers barely notice.

On Wednesday, Yahoo Finance reported:

Walmart is reportedly standing firm in its demands that Chinese suppliers absorb the costs of U.S. tariffs.

Bloomberg, citing sources with knowledge of the situation, said Walmart (WMT) is asking suppliers to reduce prices by up to 10% for every new round of tariffs, effectively shifting the financial burden onto manufacturers. Last month, Chinese officials met with Walmart executives to discuss the request, calling it irresponsible and unfair. Despite this, Walmart appears unfazed and has doubled down on its demands.

…Walmart isn’t alone in pushing suppliers to absorb some of the tariff costs. Other major retailers, including Target and Costco, are following suit. Target (TGT), for instance, asked a supplier of hairpins and claw clips to take on “half the costs of the tariffs.” The supplier said the failed negotiation led to delayed orders, eventually losing the business. Target has not responded to Quartz’s multiple requests for comment.

Tariffs are a very efficient way to deal with uneven trade practices and with import/export imbalances.

 

Making Selling A Home Cheaper

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On Friday, Yahoo Finance posted an article about a change in the commission rate that many realtors will make when selling a home.

The article reports:

The 6% commission, a standard in home purchase transactions, is no more.

In a sweeping move expected to dramatically reduce the cost of buying and selling a home, the National Association of Realtors announced Friday a settlement with groups of homesellers, agreeing to end landmark antitrust lawsuits by paying $418 million in damages and eliminating rules on commissions.

The NAR, which represents more than 1 million Realtors, also agreed to put in place a set of new rules. One prohibits agents’ compensation from being included on listings placed on local centralized listing portals known as multiple listing services, which critics say led brokers to push more expensive properties on customers. Another ends requirements that brokers subscribe to multiple listing services — many of which are owned by NAR subsidiaries — where homes are given a wide viewing in a local market. Another new rule will require buyers’ brokers to enter into written agreements with their buyers.

…By some estimates, real estate commissions are expected to fall 25% to 50%, according to TD Cowen Insights. This will open up opportunities for alternative models of selling real estate that already exist but don’t have much market share, including flat-fee and discount brokerages.

I have very mixed emotions on this. I support the change because I think it was needed in view of the inflation of house prices in recent years. A 6 percent commission on selling a house for $100,000 would be $6,000. Obviously some of that commission would be paid to the Real Estate Agency–the agent would not be able to keep the entire amount. According to Statista, the average price of a house sold in 2023 was &511,100. The real estate agent’s commission on the sale of that house would be approximately $30,000. I realize that the agent has expenses-a photographer to photograph the house, the cost of multiple listing, etc., but that seems high. I hope with this lawsuit, we will get back to more of a free market in real estate sales where the rate is competitive. I don’t want to see either a private or government monopoly determining real estate commissions.

A New Role For America

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Yahoo Finance is reporting today that America has posted its first full month as a net exporter of crude and petroleum products since government records began in 1949.

The article reports:

The nation exported 89,000 barrels a day more than it imported in September, according to data from the Energy Information Administration Friday. While the U.S. has previously reported net exports on a weekly basis, today’s figures mark a key milestone that few would have predicted just a decade ago, before the onset of the shale boom.

President Donald Trump has touted American energy independence, saying that the nation is moving away from relying on foreign oil. While the net exports show decreasing reliance on imports, the U.S. still continues to buy heavy crude oil from other nations to meet the needs of its refineries. It also buys refined products when they are available for a lower cost from foreign suppliers.

“The U.S. return to being a net exporter serves to remind how the oil industry can deliver surprises — in this case, the shale oil revolution – that upend global oil prices, production, and trade flows,” said Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush and president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.

Soaring output from shale deposits led by the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico has been in main driver of the transition — but America’s status as a net exporter may be fragile. Many Texas wildcatters are predicting a rapid decline in production growth next year, while some Democratic contenders for the White House have called for a ban on fracking — the controversial drilling technique that unleashed the boom.

The article concludes:

Analysts at Rystad Energy said this week the U.S. is only months away from achieving energy independence, citing surging oil and gas output as well as the growth of renewables.

“Going forward, the United States will be energy independent on a monthly basis, and by 2030 total primary energy production will outpace primary energy demand by about 30%,” said Sindre Knutsson, vice president of Rystad Energy’s gas markets team.

So what does energy independence mean? It means that our foreign policy is no longer determined by our energy needs, but by forming alliances with countries with similar goals. It means that a change in the world production of oil will not result in the gas lines we saw in America in the 1970’s. It means that if Russia plays politics with the energy it supplies to Europe, we have the ability to step in and fill the need–ending the constant threat that Russia will cut off Europe’s fuel supply in the dead of winter. It means that in case of war, our ships and airplanes will have the fuel they need to fight.

Energy independence is a big deal. It is a goal that was seemingly unachievable until President Trump made it a priority. Thank you, Mr. President.

It’s About The Money–Health Concerns Are Being Ignored

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Many of our more liberal states are looking for additional sources of revenue. Unfunded liabilities and expanded welfare programs and medical programs have been very expensive to the states that have embraced them. One thing that many states are looking at to increase tax revenue is the legalization of marijuana. On Saturday, Yahoo Finance posted an article about how much income legal marijuana is actually generating in California.

The article reports:

California’s legal cannabis revenue isn’t growing as fast as many state officials anticipated, recent data suggests. And one industry expert believes that taxes and a still thriving black market for marijuana, are partly to blame.

“The legal market is struggling with the set of regulatory rules and tax rates that are pretty onerous and make it fairly uncompetitive versus a thriving black market that’s had the whole industry for 60 years now,” Tom Adams, BDS Analytics managing director, told Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM in an interview this week.

California’s marijuana excise tax produced $74.2 million in revenue for the second quarter of this year, according to the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration.

Yet back in January, Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposed budget predicted the state would generate $355 million in excise tax revenues for the fiscal year. That projection was later revised down again to $288 million back in May.

The shortfall is reminiscent of Michigan, where a nascent medical marijuana market has resulted in lower than expected revenue.

Adams contended the legal market faces additional expenses like the cost of testing, that the illegal market does not.

Meanwhile, there is evidence that marijuana is harmful to the developing brains of young adults. There also may be a link between marijuana and mental illness.

In January 2019 I posted an article which stated:

After an exhaustive review, the National Academy of Medicine found in 2017 that “cannabis use is likely to increase the risk of developing schizophrenia and other psychoses; the higher the use, the greater the risk.” Also that “regular cannabis use is likely to increase the risk for developing social anxiety disorder.”

…These new patterns of use have caused problems with the drug to soar. In 2014, people who had diagnosable cannabis use disorder, the medical term for marijuana abuse or addiction, made up about 1.5 percent of Americans. But they accounted for eleven percent of all the psychosis cases in emergency rooms—90,000 cases, 250 a day, triple the number in 2006. In states like Colorado, emergency room physicians have become experts on dealing with cannabis-induced psychosis.

Cannabis advocates often argue that the drug can’t be as neurotoxic as studies suggest, because otherwise Western countries would have seen population-wide increases in psychosis alongside rising use. In reality, accurately tracking psychosis cases is impossible in the United States. The government carefully tracks diseases like cancer with central registries, but no such registry exists for schizophrenia or other severe mental illnesses.

On the other hand, research from Finland and Denmark, two countries that track mental illness more comprehensively, shows a significant increase in psychosis since 2000, following an increase in cannabis use. And in September of last year, a large federal survey found a rise in serious mental illness in the United States as well, especially among young adults, the heaviest users of cannabis.

Is the extra tax revenue worth it?

Don’t Get Too Excited At The Stock Market Numbers Today

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The Stock Market reached record levels today. Normally that would be cause for celebration, but if you look at the reasons behind the rise in the stock market, the news doesn’t look quite so good.

Yahoo Finance reported today that the federal government will continue putting stimulus money into the economy for the near future because the economy is not growing at a satisfactory rate.

The article reports:

The Fed predicted Wednesday that the economy will grow just 2 percent to 2.3 percent this year, down from its previous forecast in June of 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent growth.

Next year’s economic growth will be a barely healthy 3 percent, the Fed predicts.

Fed officials decided to continue their $85-billion-a-month bond purchase program, surprising most economists, who had expected a slight reduction. The bond purchases have been designed to keep long-term loan rates low to encourage spending.

So what has this got to do with the stock market? Financial people expected the Fed to begin to slow its bond purchases, which would have begun the rise of interest rates. Right now, with interest rates at record lows, and the possibility of inflation, the stock market is a logical place to invest. As the Fed begins to pull back from its bond purchases, the stock market will fall slightly, mortgage rates will increase, and we will probably begin to see some serious inflation.

The stock market is currently being propped up by the Fed. I have not heard any good guesses as to what will happen when the Fed begins to slow down the money flow.

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Underneath The Jobs Numbers

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Yahoo Finance posted an article today that included the Labor Force Participation Rate in the latest jobs numbers.

According to the article:

The civilian labor force decreased by 37,000 to 155.80 million in July, while those not in the labor force rose by 240,000 to 89.96 million.

The decrease in the percentage of Americans in the labor force–63.4% last month from 63.5% the month before–is one of the main reasons for the drop in the unemployment rate–to 7.4% in July from 7.6% in June.

Many of the jobs added were part time jobs and many jobs changed from full time to part time. ObamaCare has created some serious problems for the American economy (ObamaCare is responsible for the growth of part time jobs) and will continue to do so until it is defunded and stopped. I am not sure if the Republicans in the House of Representatives are going to get anywhere with their attempts at defunding it, but I give them credit for trying.

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