On Thursday, Zero Hedge posted an article about resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The article reports:
- Kuwait Petroleum CEO says Energy Production to Ramp in a Week
- Iran Media says Southern Ports Traffic Begins Normalizing
- Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For Asia
The article notes:
Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf.
There is a massive backlog of crude and LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf, preparing to exit the Hormuz chokepoint bound for Asia. Bloomberg says 31 supertankers, carrying about 62 million barrels of crude, could soon exit.
The actual number of crude and LNG tankers preparing to exit could be much higher, as some tankers may turn off their transponders. Once exited, many of those tankers are slated for ports in East Asia and will take roughly three weeks to arrive.
One of the key developments overnight was that three Saudi-controlled supertankers, including Bahri-controlled Saudi VLCCs Shaden, Jaham, and Awtad, switched on their transponders and began exiting the Persian Gulf.
Maritime traffic remains far below normal levels and could take many months to return to normal.
This is good news. There are also other consequences of the reopening of the Strait that are good news. If the price of a barrel of oil drops to $50 or $60 a barrel, it is going to be very difficult for Russia to fund its war in Ukraine. The other piece of good news will be the price of gasoline at the pump in America and around the world.
I am not totally sold on the Iran deal, but it may be a necessary interim step. America has never done a good job of regime change in other countries, so it may be just as well that we did not insist on it in Iran. Iran is currently being governed by its third string (we bombed the first two out of existence), and it is quite possible that the third string is operating in a way that wants to avoid the fate of the first two strings!