On Wednesday, The Liberty Daily posted an article detailing some of the plans to Middle Eastern countries to avoid the problems of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in the future. This is called good planning. I remember Pat Robertson being concerned about the possibility of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz back in the 1990’s. Iran’s using the closing of the Strait as a weapon should really have not surprised anyone.
The article reports:
The shuttered Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen within days, though conflicting reports suggest the US-Iran memorandum of understanding could be formally signed as early as today, Thursday, or Friday. Either way, the interim peace deal appears likely to be signed within the next 48 hours, setting the stage for energy flows through the critical maritime chokepoint to begin normalizing, a process that could take many months.
The broader takeaway is that buyers of crude, refined products, and LNG now have to rethink their sourcing stack after the US-Iran conflict effectively shut Hormuz for several months. That means diversifying supply chains and reducing exposure to single-point maritime chokepoints. For Gulf energy producers, the Hormuz disruption will accelerate a massive push toward alternative export channels that bypass Hormuz entirely, potentially reducing Tehran’s ability to use the strait as a lever in future conflicts.
The article includes the following map:
The article concludes:
The UAE can reroute more crude through pipelines to eastern ports, but LNG, aluminum, container imports, and other commodities are harder to shift. Dubai’s Jebel Ali remains the world’s largest container hub outside Asia, and moving more cargo through eastern ports would raise inland transport costs and boost shipping times.
In recent weeks, the Iraqi cabinet approved plans to accelerate crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network, which would more than triple its existing shipments from 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000.
“Iraq is in a much more complicated situation because we know that most, if not all, of its oil transits through Hormuz,” Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube, told CNBC in an interview.
What is becoming increasingly clear is that the Hormuz squeeze is rewiring the Persian Gulf’s energy map. Over time, that shift could render Iran’s leverage over the Hormuz chokepoint far less effective, if not obsolete.
Perhaps Tehran has already read the writing on the wall. That may help explain why Iranian officials are now willing to play ball with the Trump administration through an MoU to reopen Hormuz and eventually enter talks over the country’s nuclear ambitions.
I am not sure how many countries in the Middle East believe that the Strait will remain open permanently.