A Quick Look At The Moving Parts

As I write this on Thursday morning, crude oil futures are roughly $90 a barrel and trending lower. According to AI, Russia needs oil at $100 a barrel to continue the war in Ukraine. My earlier research said $80 a barrel, but evidently $100 a barrel is needed to cover some accumulated debt that Russia has taken on because of the war.

Saudi Arabia is limiting America’s use of the Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh and is not allowing American planes to fly through Saudi airspace to support the efforts to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. One guess as to why Saudi Arabia is doing this is that the Saudi’s don’t want to attacked by Iranian missiles or drones. They do not want to be collateral damage in the war in Iran.

The United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) has left The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (and OPEC’s limits on U.A.E. oil production) and has an oil pipeline that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. Look for an increased use of that pipeline.

One of the current leaders of Iran has met recently with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi (days before President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese Communist leader Xi Jinping). China does not want Iran destroyed or the current government of Iran overthrown. China has major investments in Iran. Is China putting pressure on Iran to make a deal? If Iran agrees to give up their nuclear program and enriched uranium, can we trust them to do it?

Aren’t you glad that you are not President Trump who has to sort all this out?

Perspective Matters

Yesterday Breitbart posted an article about President Biden’s recent call to Chinese dictator Xi Jinping.

The article notes:

Chinese media outlets praised President Joe Biden on Wednesday for what they characterized as a respectful, “positive” call between the head of state and Chinese dictator Xi Jinping.

The Xinhua news agency and the Global Times state propaganda newspaper both highlighted the timing – on the eve of the Lunar New Year – as a gesture of goodwill from the new presidential administration. The former expressed hope that, after President Donald Trump’s tenure featured policies designed to contain the influence of the Chinese Communist Party abroad and frequent condemnations of its human rights atrocities, America under Biden would return to the “right track” of policy favorable to Beijing.

I am all in favor of diplomacy and getting along with everyone, but let’s take a look at what the “right track” might be in the eyes of China. On February 9th, The Washington Examiner posted an article with the following headline, “Biden withdraws Trump rule on schools disclosing ties to Chinese state-run Confucius Institutes.” The Biden administration has put the sale of TikTok on hold. The Trump administration was working to sell the company to a majority-owned American company due to national security concerns.

The article at Breitbart notes:

Chinese media coverage of the phone call, the first between the two since Biden became president, contrasted considerably with American mainstream media claims that Biden had “pressured” Xi on issues such as the genocide of the Uyghur people in western Xinjiang or the repression of political dissidents in Hong Kong.

“The Spring Festival is a very important holiday for the Chinese,” Xinhua’s coverage noted. “The telephone conversation between the two heads of state on the eve of the Lunar New Year marks a new starting point for direct communication, symbolizes goodwill, and conforms to the expectations of the Chinese and Americans, as well as those of the wider global community.”

The article concludes:

Mainstream American outlets did not convey in their coverage of the call a sense that Biden had been overly effusive in sharing goodwill or “respect,” as their Chinese counterparts did. The New York Times painted the call as aggressive, leading with the claim that Biden raised “concerns about Beijing’s aggressive policies abroad and human rights abuses at home,” which Chinese outlets largely disregarded. The newspaper nonetheless noted that Biden has “said that he believed he had spent more time with Mr. Xi than he has with any other world leader.”

CNN similarly claimed that Biden “call[ed] China out on a range of issues related to its nefarious use of technology, unfair trade and human rights abuses,” citing unidentified sources within the Biden administration.

NBC News, citing the White House, also led its coverage with an emphasis on Biden mentioning the existence of human rights problems in China.

Somehow I think the media has sold us out.