Tag Archives: Iranian oil

It Really Is Time To Stop Fooling Around And Pull Off The Band-Aid

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On Monday, Hot Air posted an article about the Iran negotiations.

The article reports:

In a move that shocks precisely nobody, Iran has done a 180 and denied that the regime has agreed to IAEA inspections any time soon, if ever. 

They made the announcement within minutes of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant announcing that the United States has lifted all sanctions on Iranian oil, which can now be legally traded, in dollars no less, and be sold anywhere within the world without restrictions at market prices. 

…Vice President Vance had highlighted Iran’s concession to allow IAEA inspectors into the country as a major achievement—something many had already disputed, given that IAEA inspectors had been allowed into Iran up until the 2025 Midnight Hammer operation. Without knowing how freely the inspectors could roam in Iran and whether the disputed sites would be included, it’s hard to say whether this was a breakthrough or just a baby step toward getting back to pre-2025 levels of cooperation.

…It seems obvious that Iran is saying one thing behind the scenes and another in front of the cameras. Its claim to have walked away from negotiations yesterday proved half true—its top officials refused to sit down or even meet with Vice President Vance’s team, but its lower-level negotiators remained in talks with our lower-level folks. 

First of all, do the people negotiating for Iran actually have power in their country’s government? Second of all, it is remotely possible that Iran is simply saying anything to get the sanctions lifted and the attacks on Hezbollah stopped? This is taqiyya at work.

Taqiyya (Arabic:  romanized: taqiyya; lit. ‘prudence’ or ‘fear’) is a doctrinal principle in Islamic jurisprudence permitting the dissimulation or concealment of one’s religious beliefs, practices, or affiliations when facing persecution, mortal danger, or severe harm to oneself, family, or community. Originating from Quranic verses such as Ali Imran 3:28, which instructs believers to avoid close alliances with disbelievers unless fearing them while harboring true faith inwardly, and supported by prophetic hadiths, taqiyya emerged as a pragmatic response to early Muslim vulnerabilities under hostile regimes. (source here)

We do not want Iran to have the money to continue funding terrorism around the world. They have to be totally defeated and new leadership put in place. Damn the torpedoes–full steam ahead! Nothing else is going to work.

I Guess The Sanctions Weren’t Working

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On Sunday, The Conservative Treehouse posted the following headline:

That truly sums up the current situation with Iranian oil.

The article reports:

Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place. However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place.

CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil and gas from Iran doesn’t move.

The U.S. will physically enforce the pre-existing global sanctions. A blockade begins tomorrow morning.

…Oil and gas from Kuwait will be allowed transit and passage.  Oil and gas from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar will also transit without issue.  However, oil or gas from Iran will be blocked.  China takes the biggest hit, again.

The target now is to cut off the Iranian money supply.

This blockade is happening against the little discussed backdrop of Dubai (UAE) targeting Iranian money changers.

The article quotes Iran International:

The arrest of dozens of IRGC-linked money changers in the United Arab Emirates is one of the most serious blows yet to Tehran’s sanctions-evasion network, laying bare how heavily the Islamic Republic has depended on Dubai as an economic lifeline.

Sources familiar with the matter told Iran International that UAE authorities detained dozens of money changers tied to financial entities linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, shut down associated companies and closed their offices.

…For years, Dubai has served as Iran’s main offshore financial artery, where oil proceeds, petrochemical revenues and rial conversions were turned into dollars, dirhams and euros beyond the reach of the country’s battered domestic banking system.

“This is going to be a real problem for Tehran because Dubai was an economic lung for the Iranian regime,” Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran told Iran International.

I don’t think it was wise of the Iranian regime to bomb the UAE. Iran has successfully alienated all of its possible supporters in the region.

The Global Impact Of The Iran War

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According to brics.br:

The BRICS is a group formed by eleven countries: Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Iran. It serves as a political and diplomatic coordination forum for countries from the Global South and for coordination in the most diverse areas.

Basically, this is Russia and China’s attempt to move oil trade away from the U.S. dollar, and some of our ‘friends’ are playing both sides. Well, the war on Iran has had a serious negative impact on BRICS.

On Tuesday, The Conservative Treehouse reported:

Consider the severe economic body blows to China in the past 14 months.

♦ First blow, the Trump tariffs hit Beijing hardest. ♦ Second blow, the Beijing tentacle on the Panama Canal is severed.  ♦ Third blow, global tariff threats changed the risk dynamic for southeast Asia countries who acted as transnational shippers for China. ♦ Fourth blow, cheap sanctioned oil from Venezuela was cut-off. ♦ Now, the fifth blow; cheap, sanctioned Iranian oil is disrupted.

As noted by Politico: Following USA military strikes, “ships have begun to avoid the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran — a critical shipping lane for Gulf nations to export oil to Asia. China in 2025 received about half of its imported oil from the six Gulf countries that rely on the strait. Other large crude oil producers in the region — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates — transport almost all their crude exports through the geographic bottleneck.”

The article includes this chart from Politico:

The article notes:

With Iranian oil removed from the non-petro supply chain, the only remaining non-petro oil producer is Russia – who is simultaneously hit with a loss in military hardware support.  China may end up as a larger oil customer to Russia, but at what price and in what payment structure.

With global oil supplies in a state of flux, and with the USA in control of the oil flow from Venezuela, North America is certainly in the best position for minimal energy disruption.

Asia is heavily dependent on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the majority of Europe has already shut themselves off from Russian oil production, putting themselves in a position of dependency to the global markets.  The short-term ramifications of this oil disruption hit China, Southeast Asia, Japan and Europe particularly hard.

“OPEC+ countries affirmed on Sunday that they would boost oil production starting in April by 206,000 barrels daily — a modest increase intended to dampen the war’s effect on prices down the road. The majority of the increase would come from Saudi Arabia and Russia.” {SOURCE}

As usual, President Trump is playing chess while much of the world is playing checkers.

Taking Economic Action Against Iran

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On Friday, The Jewish News Syndicate reported that the Trump administration has put sanctions on Iran’s oil shipments. The money from Iranian oil has been used to fund terrorism around the world. Iranian oil paid for the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

The article reports:

The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Thursday on an oil smuggling network generating hundreds of millions of dollars for Iran.

Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff used front companies to ship oil and used the revenue to fund terrorist groups, including Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah, according to the department.

“The Iranian regime remains focused on leveraging its oil revenues to fund the development of its nuclear program, to produce its deadly ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles and to support its regional terrorist proxy groups,” stated Scott Bessent, the U.S. treasury secretary. “The United States is committed to aggressively targeting any attempt by Iran to secure funding for these malign activities.”

Thursday’s action is the first round of new sanctions on the Islamic Republic since U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Wednesday re-imposing a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.

The sanctions target part of Iran’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and shell companies that help Iran smuggle oil and ultimately sell it to China.

When President Trump left office in 2020, Iran was collapsing financial because of the sanctions the Trump administration had put in place during President Trump’s first term. Unfortunately, one of the first things President Biden did was remove those sanctions. We may have missed a golden opportunity for regime change in Iran. Hopefully, the new sanctions will have the same impact the old sanctions had.

Prepare For Supply Chain Problems

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Remember the supply chain crisis caused by the Covid virus? Remember the problems parents had buying Christmas gifts for their children? We may be headed right back there only for a different reason.

On Sunday I posted an article about terrorism interrupting the flow of shipping through the Red Sea (article here). The article stated that because of a Houthis’ attack on one of their vessels, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S is ‘pausing’ their ships heading for the southern entrance of the Red Sea.

On Monday, The BBC reported the following:

Oil giant BP has announced it is pausing all shipments of oil through the Red Sea after recent attacks on vessels by Houthi rebels.

The firm blamed the “deteriorating security situation” in the region as Iran-backed Houthis target ships they believe are bound for Israel.

Many freight firms have suspended journeys as the attacks continue.

BP said it would keep its “precautionary pause under ongoing review” and monitor the region.

Analysts suggested that if other large oil firms follow suit, oil prices could rise. Brent crude, the international benchmark foroil prices, increased to $78.44 per barrel.

“Right now it’s unclear how significant the impact will be,” said Gregory Brew, an oil historian and analyst at Eurasia Group.

“Though if more shipping companies divert their traffic, and if the disruption lasts more than a week or two, prices are likely to climb further.”

The Red Sea is one of the world’s most important routes for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, as well as for consumer goods.

This is an international matter. The world needs to understand that Iran is funding the Houthis. Iran is also funding Hamas. Iran is also funding Hezbollah. There seems to be a pattern here. It’s time to put international sanctions back on Iranian oil and enforce them. One major move that the international community can make to slow down terrorism is to defund Iran. If they are not willing to unite to do that, look behind the scenes to see who benefits from the terrorism.

 

Disturbing News From The Middle East

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Most of the world wants peace in the Middle East. President Trump has been moving in that direction by normalizing relations between Israel and some of its Arab neighbors. However, not everyone in the region is in favor of peace. To some nations, war serves a purpose–it distracts from internal problems and can be a unifying force, it stimulates the economy by creating a demand for planes and weapons, and it often will strengthen the leadership position of whoever is in charge of the country fighting the war.

The United States Naval Institute News (USNI) News reported on Wednesday that two Russian Navy ships were seen in the Mediterranean Sea escorting an Iranian-flagged oil tanker to Syria.

The article reports:

Last week, the Iranian-flagged oil tanker Samah entered the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal. After a few miles, the 900-foot-long ship stopped reporting its position and destination. Evidence suggests the ship sailed to Syria, escorted by two Russian Navy ships, including a destroyer.

Russia’s role in protecting the shipment may change the dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the past, Iranian tankers sailing to Syria have been intercepted by the U.K. Royal Navy. The Russian Navy escort could be viewed as a precautionary step, raising the political and military risks of any intervention by the Royal Navy or others.

Last July, an Iranian tanker destined for Syria, Adrian Darya-1, was seized by U.K. Royal Marines off Gibraltar. The British accused Iran of supplying Syria with oil in contravention of European Union sanctions. Iran quickly seized a British-flagged tanker in a likely retaliatory move. Eventually, in September, Adrian Darya-1 was released by a local court with the assurance that it would not deliver its oil to Syria – but days later, it transshipped its oil in Syrian waters.

The article concludes:

The Russian Navy has hinted it would be more active in escorting merchant ships in the region. After the Iranian delivery, the Russian Navy has publicized an exercise off Syria, meant to protect “smooth passage of civilian ships.” A simulated attack by a submarine was dealt with by Vice Admiral Kulakov, which may be intended to send a message to allies and potential adversaries alike that Russia will actively prevent any interference with the Iranian shipments.

Russia now maintains a permanent squadron in the Mediterranean, based in Tartus, Syria. This includes submarines and large warships. If Moscow decides the Iran-Syria oil run is now a regular mission for the Russian Navy, it’s set to complicate enforcement of international sanctions which could otherwise shut down one of the Syrian regime’s vital lifelines.

Russia has always wanted a ‘warm water port.’ It looks as if they now have one.