On Saturday, WattsUpWithThat posted an article about the sudden growth of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), which gained mass at an unprecedented rate between 2021 and 2023.
The article reports:
A groundbreaking study published in Science China Earth Sciences has unveiled a stunning reversal in the fortunes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), which gained mass at an unprecedented rate between 2021 and 2023. This marks the first significant ice growth in decades, challenging the prevailing narrative of relentless ice loss and highlighting the complex interplay of natural variability and climate dynamics. Using data from NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry missions, the findings offer a nuanced perspective on Antarctica’s role in global sea level changes and raise critical questions about the drivers of ice sheet behavior.
The study, led by Dr. Wei Wang and Prof. Yunzhong Shen at Tongji University, reports that the AIS gained mass at a rate of 107.79 ± 74.90 Gt/yr from 2021 to 2023, a dramatic shift from prior decades of decline. As the article states, “From 2002 to 2010, the AIS has experienced a mass loss with a change rate of -73.79 ± 56.27 Gt/yr, which nearly doubled to -142.06 ± 56.12 Gt/yr for the period 2011-2020.” This earlier mass loss, driven primarily by intensified depletion in West Antarctica and parts of East Antarctica’s Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land (WL-QML) region, contributed significantly to global sea level rise—0.20 ± 0.16 mm/yr from 2002-2010 and 0.39 ± 0.15 mm/yr from 2011-2020. In contrast, the recent ice growth has had a “negative contribution, offsetting global mean sea level rise at a rate of -0.30 ± 0.21 mm/yr” from 2021-2023, effectively slowing the rise of global sea levels.
The turnaround is particularly pronounced in East Antarctica, where four critical glacier basins—Totten, Moscow, Denman, and Vincennes Bay—reversed their mass loss trends. The article notes, “The four key glacier basins in WL-QML region… exhibited mass loss intensification with a rate of 47.64 ± 8.14 Gt/yr during 2011-2020, compared to 2002-2010, with the loss area expanding inland.” Yet, between 2021 and 2023, these basins showed significant mass gains, attributed to “anomalous precipitation accumulation.” This surge in snowfall appears to have counteracted the factors previously driving ice loss, namely surface mass reduction (72.53%) and increased ice discharge (27.47%).
The article concludes:
This development underscores the complexity of Antarctica’s ice system and the pitfalls of oversimplified climate narratives. The interplay of precipitation, potential volcanic influences, and regional variability suggests that short-term fluctuations can significantly alter long-term trends. The unexpected AIS rebound challenges policymakers and researchers to integrate this new data into their understanding of climate dynamics, moving beyond one-size-fits-all assumptions about ice loss and sea level rise.
When the ice melts in a drink, the glass does not overflow. How does melting ice in the ocean raise the water level? I don’t claim to be a scientist or a physicist, and I would love to have someone explain that to me.