Tag Archives: Antarctic ice sheet

Things Are Never As Simple As We Would Like

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On Saturday, WattsUpWithThat posted an article about the sudden growth of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), which gained mass at an unprecedented rate between 2021 and 2023.

The article reports:

A groundbreaking study published in Science China Earth Sciences has unveiled a stunning reversal in the fortunes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), which gained mass at an unprecedented rate between 2021 and 2023. This marks the first significant ice growth in decades, challenging the prevailing narrative of relentless ice loss and highlighting the complex interplay of natural variability and climate dynamics. Using data from NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry missions, the findings offer a nuanced perspective on Antarctica’s role in global sea level changes and raise critical questions about the drivers of ice sheet behavior.

The study, led by Dr. Wei Wang and Prof. Yunzhong Shen at Tongji University, reports that the AIS gained mass at a rate of 107.79 ± 74.90 Gt/yr from 2021 to 2023, a dramatic shift from prior decades of decline. As the article states, “From 2002 to 2010, the AIS has experienced a mass loss with a change rate of -73.79 ± 56.27 Gt/yr, which nearly doubled to -142.06 ± 56.12 Gt/yr for the period 2011-2020.” This earlier mass loss, driven primarily by intensified depletion in West Antarctica and parts of East Antarctica’s Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land (WL-QML) region, contributed significantly to global sea level rise—0.20 ± 0.16 mm/yr from 2002-2010 and 0.39 ± 0.15 mm/yr from 2011-2020. In contrast, the recent ice growth has had a “negative contribution, offsetting global mean sea level rise at a rate of -0.30 ± 0.21 mm/yr” from 2021-2023, effectively slowing the rise of global sea levels.

The turnaround is particularly pronounced in East Antarctica, where four critical glacier basins—Totten, Moscow, Denman, and Vincennes Bay—reversed their mass loss trends. The article notes, “The four key glacier basins in WL-QML region… exhibited mass loss intensification with a rate of 47.64 ± 8.14 Gt/yr during 2011-2020, compared to 2002-2010, with the loss area expanding inland.” Yet, between 2021 and 2023, these basins showed significant mass gains, attributed to “anomalous precipitation accumulation.” This surge in snowfall appears to have counteracted the factors previously driving ice loss, namely surface mass reduction (72.53%) and increased ice discharge (27.47%).

The article concludes:

This development underscores the complexity of Antarctica’s ice system and the pitfalls of oversimplified climate narratives. The interplay of precipitation, potential volcanic influences, and regional variability suggests that short-term fluctuations can significantly alter long-term trends. The unexpected AIS rebound challenges policymakers and researchers to integrate this new data into their understanding of climate dynamics, moving beyond one-size-fits-all assumptions about ice loss and sea level rise.

When the ice melts in a drink, the glass does not overflow. How does melting ice in the ocean raise the water level? I don’t claim to be a scientist or a physicist, and I would love to have someone explain that to me.

Whoops!

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Breitbart.com posted an article today about the Antarctic ice cap–it’s growing–not shrinking. According to the latest study by NASA, the Antarctic is growing and reducing sea levels by 0.23 mm per year.

The article reports:

But the satellite measurements used in the latest NASA report tell a different story. Unlike previous studies – many largely based on guesswork because the continent is so vast and inhospitable, meaning that data is extremely limited – they use satellite altimeters to calculate changes in the surface height of the ice. What they show is that the amount of ice lost by glaciers collapsing into the sea has been exceeded by the gain in ice mass from accumulated snow.

According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.

The scientific evidence contradicts the political guess. Man-made global warming is a political concept designed to give government control over how we use energy and who is allowed to use how much energy. Note that those screaming the loudest about global warming are flying around the planet in private jets. If they were truly all that worried, I suspect they might find a more efficient form of transportation.

 

 

When The Numbers Just Don’t Add Up–Fudge Them Or Ignore Them

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This article is based on two stories–one posted by the Daily Caller today, and one posted at wattsupwiththat.com yesterday.

The article at the Daily Caller deals with the increase of ice and the lack of melting ice in Greenland.

The article reports:

But alarmists have been neglecting an inconvenient fact about the polar region: Greenland is seeing healthy levels of ice and record cold temperatures over parts of the polar island.

Northeast Greenland saw its coldest May on record since measurements started back in 1949, and the island as a whole is colder than normal. Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, has also seen its coldest year on record, according to science blogger Steven Goddard.

Greenland is also seeing much less ice melt than normal, according to the Danish Meteorological Institute. Basically, Greenland’s ice sheet has accumulated a lot of ice, but seen little melting this year.

The article at wattsupwiththat is very scientific and illustrates how some global warming supporters (I really can’t call them scientists) have adjusted (redone) the climate data in recent years so that the fact that there has been no global warming in recent years is hidden in the new numbers.

The article concludes:

Comments from Georgia Tech Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry:

The greatest changes in the new NOAA surface temperature analysis is to the ocean temperatures since 1998.  This seems rather ironic, since this is the period where there is the greatest coverage of data with the highest quality of measurements – ARGO buoys and satellites don’t show a warming trend.  Nevertheless, the NOAA team finds a substantial increase in the ocean surface temperature anomaly trend since 1998.

In my opinion, the gold standard dataset for global ocean surface temperatures is the UK dataset, HadSST3.  A review of the uncertainties is given in this paper by John Kennedy http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/uncertainty.html.  Note, the UK group has dealt with the same issues raised by the NOAA team.  I personally see no reason to the use the NOAA ERSST dataset, I do not see any evidence that the NOAA group has done anywhere near as careful a job as the UK group in processing the ocean temperatures.

The real bottom line here is that we really don’t know as much as we like to think we do. The impact of man on global climate is unknown, but as much as I hate to admit it, in the grand scheme of things, man really is a very small part.