The Long-Term Hidden Impact Of Covid

The biggest impact of the Covid epidemic was the loss of trust in our government, the medical community, and the media. So much of what we were told about the virus and the vaccine turned out to be false. However, there are other less obvious consequences of the epidemic and the way it was handled.

The two-week shutdown probably did nothing to ‘flatten the curve.’ It did, however, flatten the economy and end the beginning of an economic boom. It also resulted in one of the largest transfers of wealth in America’s history. That transfer of wealth went from the lower-and-middle-income earners to the wealthy. Unfortunately, I suspect that there may be some people with nefarious intentions that will attempt to repeat that template in the future. However, in my opinion, the economic impact of Covid will not be as lasting as some of its sociological effects.

Before Covid, investing in office space was a relatively safe bet. Workers were in their offices almost every day, and there was a comradery among workers. School children were in their classrooms daily, learning social skills and forming friendships. Kindergarten children and elementary school children especially needed to be in school with their peers. Being out of school for almost a year in some cases impeded their social development and probably their language skills. After Covid, when the children returned to school they were masked, as were their teachers. The masks impeded their ability to read facial expressions and to understand fully what was being said to them. Not only were the preventative properties of the masks questionable, there was also the challenge of keeping a mask clean on a young child for an extended period of time. High School students were denied certain social milestones—class trips, proms, competitive sports, graduation ceremonies, and social interaction. The young adults who were in high school at that time (a generation that was already leaning toward texting rather than actual conversation) grew accustomed to socialization through electronics rather than in person. The comradery in schools and offices was lost.

Can we regain any of our losses? Yes. We have already begun. As office workers return to the office, the team spirit will again emerge. As companies realize the value of having people physically present in the office, socialization will begin again, and commercial real estate will rebound.

Our plans to combat Covid failed on many levels. However, they provide a clear blueprint of what not to do in the case of a future epidemic.

The Long-Term Hidden Impact Of Covid

The two-week shutdown probably did nothing to ‘flatten the curve.’ It did, however, flatten the economy and end the beginning of an economic boom. I suspect that there may have been some nefarious people who were planning that result. Unfortunately, there may be some nefarious people currently working in Washington to repeat that template. However, in my opinion, the economic impact of Covid will not be as lasting as some of its sociological effects.

Before Covid, investing in office space was a relatively safe bet. Workers were in their offices almost every day, and there was a comradery among workers. School children were in their classrooms daily, learning social skills and forming friendships. After Covid, when the children returned to school to a very different environment. Kindergarten children missed nearly a year of social development. When they got to school, their learning was further impacted by having to wear masks. Not only was this practice questionable for young children who might not be able to keep a mask clean for the entire school day, it also hindered their ability to read social cues in their teachers’ expressions.

High school students were denied certain rites of passage, milestones in life–class trips, proms, competitive sports, awards ceremonies and graduation ceremonies.

So what was the social impact?

Elementary school children lost a year (at least) of social development. The young adults who were in high school at that time (a generation that was already leaning toward texting rather than actual conversation) grew accustomed to socialization through electronics rather than in person. The comradery in a office that comes from shared purpose and shared experiences was lost.

Can we regain any of our losses? Yes. We have already begun. As office workers return to their office, the team spirit will again emerge. As companies realize the value of having people physically present in the office, commercial real estate will rebound, and interaction between company employees will return.

Our plans to combat Covid failed on many levels. However, they provide a blueprint of what not to do in the case of a future epidemic.

A Logical Trend

On Tuesday, The Epoch Times reported that a record number of office spaces in American cities are being renovated and turned into housing units. This is a great way to help with the housing shortage, but I am not sure what will happen if companies ask their employees to begin actually coming into the office to work.

The article reports:

While the U.S. housing market is still falling short by 4–5 million properties, the office-to-apartment conversion industry is making a little headway to help alleviate the problem. This year alone, a record-breaking 70,700 apartments are expected to be created from vacant office space nationwide.

A new report from RentCafe indicates that office conversions now comprise almost 42 percent of some 169,000 apartments in adaptive reuse projects.

Not surprisingly, the New York metropolitan area leads the nation in office-to-apartment conversions in the pipeline for 2025, with 8,310 units planned. Washington, D.C., which held the top spot last year, has 6,533 conversions planned, and Los Angeles has 4,388 units. Chicago and Dallas round out the top five, with 3,606 and 2,725, respectively.

Since the pandemic, a significant share of the nation’s office space remains empty, as workplaces shifted to remote options. According to Yardi Matrix, a real estate data-acquisition firm associated with RentCafe, the national office vacancy rate soared to almost 20 percent by the end of December 2024.

The article notes:

The RentCafe report indicates the bulk of today’s commercial conversions (42 percent) are office buildings, followed by hotels (22 percent), factories (11 percent), and warehouses (6 percent).

The article concludes:

“A lot of younger people fresh out of college are leaving home for the first time and have a different mindset,” he said. “They like a lot of modern amenities like smart homes, gyms, pools, community rooms, rooftop decks, and social engagement. Plus, they value proximity to transportation and convenience retail.”

As for affordable rental options, the report indicates most of the planned conversion developments will be offering a percentage of affordable units for those who qualify financially. “There is also a large amount of supply coming, so developers have to be competitive to be able to retain renters,” he said.

If you are younger and don’t plan on marrying or having children for a while, living in a former business building or hotel converted to private residences would be a great experience. There is no lawn to take care of, and the amenities could be very nice.