Egypt A Year After The Revolution

It has been a year since Mohamed Morsi became President of Egypt. Egyptians are not happily celebrating that anniversary. Yesterday the Christian Science Monitor reported that as large crowds protested in Cairo, a small crowd attacked the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The article reports:

A Brotherhood spokesman, Gehad El Haddad, said on Twitter that a group of “thugs” was attacking the headquarters, and said two police captains left their posts protecting the headquarters to join the attack. No eyewitnesses reported seeing police engage in the attack. But Morsi has struggled to bring the security forces, long used for suppressing the Muslim Brotherhood, under his control. The police’s refusal to protect the Brotherhood headquarters and other Brotherhood offices are a telling sign.

The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al Banna. Hassan al Banna was killed in 1949 by Egyptian security services. A ban on Muslim Brotherhood activities was lifted in 1951. In 1952, the Muslim Brotherhood worked with Gamal Abdel Nasser and some young officers who overthrew King Farouk. Nassar began a crackdown on the Brotherhood in 1954, and much of the organization left Egypt and began operating worldwide. In the past, when Egypt had a leadership crisis, the military took control, and whomever they supported took power. However, President Morsi quickly moved to prevent that from happening.

In August, I reported (rightwinggranny.com) that President Morsi ordered Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi to retire.

I stated:

This move essentially transfers power away from the military and strengthens the power of the President and the Parliament. The Parliament that was elected in Egypt was largely fundamentalist Islamists who support Sharia Law. Taking control of the military breaks down the last barrier to Sharia Law and to Egypt becoming what Iran became after the 1979 revolution there. The next step will be the official breaking of the treaty with Israel (which will only happen when Egypt feels that it has gotten all the U. S. foreign aid money it is going to get).

By taking power away from the military, President Morsi consolidated his power within Egypt. However, the people who began the revolution in 2011 were not all supporters of Sharia Law. Many of them wanted democracy. Democracy does not mean one election and then tyranny. Because it has become evident that President Morsi is steering Egypt toward being a caliphate, many of the people who originally wanted a change in government do not like the change they got.

It remains to be seen whether or not Morsi will hold power. The Muslim Brotherhood is very powerful and is not above using force to maintain power. It would be wonderful to see freedom come to Egypt, but I seriously doubt that will be the way this ends.

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Why Do We Continue This Dance ?

Front Page Magazine posted an article today about the latest round of talks on the Iranian nuclear program.

The article quotes a recent New York Times article:

 [a] successful meeting could prolong the diplomatic dance with Tehran, delaying any possible military confrontation…until after the presidential election. It could also keep a lid on oil prices…. Lower gasoline prices would aid the economic recovery in the United States, and Mr. Obama’s electoral prospects.

Wow. Has it occurred to anyone that we have done this dance before? All Iran needs is time to complete its research and obtain nuclear weapons–we are giving them the time.

The article at Front Page Magazine quoted Amos Yadlin, formerly Israel’s chief of Military Intelligence. Speaking earlier this month at a conference of the Washington Institute in Virginia, he stated:

 nuclear Iran is more dangerous than attacking Iran.

If they can’t be contained when they don’t have nuclear weapon[s], how can they be contained when they do?…

I am sure they won’t launch a nuclear bomb the moment they get it, but the possibility [that] as a result of miscalculations and lack of stability, they will launch [a] nuclear missile—it’s not a possibility you can ignore. The flying time of a missile from Tehran to Tel Aviv is seven minutes and the temptation for a first strike is huge.

If you really want all options on the table, you need to be very credible with the military option.

Israel needs to be able to defend herself regardless of the price of oil or the coming elections. To block Israel from defending herself is extremely short-sighted. Has anyone considered what the world would look like after Iran went nuclear?

Israeli leaders understand the price of attacking Iran. On March 15, I had the privilege of hearing Marc Kahlberg speak at the Ahavath Torah Congregation in Stoughton, Massachusetts. Please see rightwinggranny.com for details.

Mr. Kahlberg spoke of the consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran and reminded his audience of Iran’s past behavior:

What are the dangers of Israel attacking Iran in order to end its nuclear program? In a war with Iran, Israel will probably have 20,000 fatalities, 100,000 injured, and one and a half to two million people suffering from trauma. If Iran has nukes, it will probably totally destroy Israel. Great choice. The other thing that was pointed out was that in dealing with the leaders of Iran, we are not dealing with people we can depend on to act rationally. There is a martyrdom aspect of the Iranian regime that does not make them rational when it comes to dealing with nuclear weapons. A regime that sends twelve-year old boys with keys around their necks to march into minefields to clear the mines (keys that were supposed to assure them the instant entrance to paradise when they were killed by the mines) should not be considered rational.

Sometimes negotiations are not the answer. An attack on Iran would create a lot of turmoil. It would make much more sense to undermine the current government to the point where it collapsed. The problem is not Iran going nuclear as much as it is the current government of Iran going nuclear. A few dozen targeted assassinations would probably also solve the problem.

UPDATE:

Since posting this, I have stumbled upon some interesting historic information. Israel has just formed a new coalition government–designed to bring more people together. Those were the actions Israel took just before the 1967 war,

The timeline for 1967 goes as follows:

In May 1967, Egypt evicted the UN observers from the Sinai Peninsula and began amassing forces there. On May 22, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser closed the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping. On May 30, Jordan and Egypt signed a mutual defense pact as Iran began moving troops to the Israeli border. On June 1, Israel formed a national unity government. enlarging the cabinet and forming a united front. On June 5, Israel attacked the amassing Arab forces.

Stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

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