Tag Archives: UAE

The World Is Rapidly Changing

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It will be a while before we truly realize the aftershocks of what is happening in Iran. It may be a while before we know what is actually happening in Iran, but the impact of what has happened so far will be felt for a long time. I believe the war in Iran began with the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023. That attack ended the idea of a peaceful Palestinian state, which Gaza was established to be. Once that illusion was shattered, and Israel realized how vulnerable it was, the war with Iran was inevitable whether or not America approved or got involved. The issue became the survival of Israel. Since the war began, other Arab states have realized that they are not immune from the terrorist activities of Iran. The region in gradually reshaping itself into a more modern, economically bonded region.

On Tuesday, The Hill reported:

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the country’s government said on Tuesday. 

The country will officially exit OPEC and its broader OPEC+ association on May 1 following the government’s internal review of its production policy, according to UAE state media, WAM. 

“This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets,” WAM reported.

The move marks a major change for the permanent intergovernmental organization, which sets uniform petroleum policies among its member countries with the mission of maintaining stable global oil markets.

The UAE first joined OPEC seven years after its founding in 1960 under the emirate of Abu Dhabi, and it has been a vital member of the intergovernmental organization. The country’s exit follows UAE officials’ complaints about OPEC’s quotas and the country’s reported clashes with the organization’s de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia.

This decision is also the result of the fact that America is not only energy independent–we are exporting oil. Saudi Arabia no longer has the sway that it once had. The energy market is now every man for himself. It will be interesting to see what impact this has on crude oil prices.

Update On The War In Iran

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Iran has been at war with America since 1979. We are now at war with them. This is an update on where we are. Note that the Kurds may play a role in the future of Iran. They have been America allies and have suffered under the Muslim tyrants that ran the Middle East for so many years. This war may loosen the grip of those tyrants.

On March 4th, Zero Hedge reported:

Here are the most critical developments unfolding in the US-Iran conflict: 

    • CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say: CNN
    • State Department securing military aircraft, charter flights to get Americans out of Middle East
    • Iran International is claiming (unverified) Iran’s Assembly of Experts chose Mojtaba Khamenei as new Ayatollah under heavy IRGC pressure to ensure hardline continuity and regime stability after his father’s death
    • Drone hits CIA station in Saudi Arabia, also reportedly a consulate in Dubai. WaPo: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East.
    • IAEA’s Grossi says there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb; Iran’s large stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched Uranium and refusal to grant IAEA full access are cause for serious concern
    • Trump Weighs Backing Militias to Dislodge Iran’s Regime. Future insurgency fragmentation and Iraq-style nightmare coming to Iran?
    • Trump tries to articular war justification: says if we have a little high oil prices, could be for a little while, but they will drop, and could even be below the levels before, but that he ‘had to’ act or else Iran would have ‘used nukes’. Claims Israel didn’t force America’s hand. Admits leadership vacuum.
    • US to offer military protection to ships/insurance in the Strait of Hormuz 
    • The Pentagon has released Operation Epic Fury’s objectives; 1- Demilitarization of Iran: destruction of its missile forces, production facilities, and naval fleet 2- Elimination of the terrorist regime 3- Protection of the United States from current and future threats 4-  Ensuring that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons
    • UAE mulling joining US-Israel attack on Iran, and the Saudis too, to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on their countries.

Please follow the link above for more information.

This Is Not A Step Toward Peace

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Yesterday The Center for Security Policy reported the following:

President Joe Biden has halted the sale of F-35 stealth jets to the UAE, even though they were promised as part of the Abraham Accords.  The administration has raised concerns the UAE might use these jets against the Houthis.

The Houthis have no air force and they have only rudimentary air defenses.

The UAE has a decently-sized air force made up of seventy seven F-16’s and sixty three Mirage 2000’s.

In respect to the Houthi insurgency in Yemen, the UAE operates with Saudi Arabian air assets.  Saudi Arabia has 42 F-15’s , 74 light attack F-5’s and 44 Tornado fighters.

The Houthis are designated by the government of Yemen as a “terrorist militia.” They are Shiite Muslims attempting to take over the country. They are supported by Iran.

The article concludes:

The Israelis are already deeply alarmed and, while not explicitly stated, if the administration goes ahead with its JCPOA plan, the Israeli Air Force will attempt to take out Iran’s nuclear and missile assets if given the go-ahead. From Israel point of view, Iran is already close to an atomic weapons breakout, but the US backing for the JCPOA is likely to give the Iranians cover to really accelerate their nuclear drive. Starting last month, Iran was enriching uranium (U-235) at 20%. Once there is enough U-235 at 20%, it is relatively easy to increase the U-235 percentage to 95%, what is needed for an atomic bomb.

There is yet another consequence. Iran is pursuing different ways to make atomic weapons, using either a pure uranium bomb (like Hiroshima), boosted bombs (perhaps using thorium which is available from North Korea), or alternatively building plutonium-based weapons. Plutonium weapons require a complex triggering mechanism as opposed to a uranium bomb that can employ a much simpler gun-type initiator. Unlike the Nagasaki bomb that was plutonium-based, the Hiroshima U-235 bomb did not require testing because the mechanism was simpler.

The regional issue is whether to wait for Iran to have nuclear weapons or to preempt and destroy Iran’s weapon’s making facilities and missile launch platforms.

Meanwhile the Biden decision no doubt will confirm a looming Israeli view that the US administration is tilting to Iran and that the nuclear threat will get worse unless it is countered. In short, the Biden decision is destabilizing.

This decision will not bring peace.

We Are Truly In The Political Silly Season

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President Trump brokered a peace deal between Israel and the UAE. That is amazing. He was able to do that because Israel trusts him and because the UAE is aware of the danger Iran poses to the region. As expected, Joe Biden is taking credit for the peace deal.

Yesterday The Daily Wire posted an article about the peace deal.

The article reports:

On Thursday, following the announcement of the historic peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden made the astonishing claim that the Obama administration was partially responsible for preparing the way for the deal.

Biden said that “the coming together of Israel and Arab states builds on the efforts of multiple administrations to foster a broader Arab-Israeli opening, including the efforts of the Obama-Biden administration to build on the Arab Peace Initiative,” adding, “I personally spent time with leaders of both Israel and the UAE during our administration building the case for cooperation and broader engagement and the benefits it could deliver to both nations, and I am gratified by today’s announcement. It is a timely reminder that enmities and differences — even long standing ones — are not set in stone, and of the role American diplomacy can play,” as Fox News reported.

The article explains why the claim from Joe Biden is false:

The Arab Peace Initiative that Biden cited was proposed by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah at the 2002 Arab League Summit in Beirut, Lebanon, endorsed by that summit, and later endorsed at the 2007 summit in Riyadh. It called for full Israeli withdrawal from Golan Heights, which would leave Israel vulnerable to attacks from above it, withdrawal from the Biblical Judea and Samaria, where the ancient Jewish kings were crowned, and withdrawal from East Jerusalem, which includes the Temple Mount, the site of the Biblical temples, and for Jews, the holiest place on earth.

As it turned out, Israel never compromised on those issues, and yet the UAE has made peace, so Biden’s citation of the Arab Peace Initiative to buttress his claim that the Obama administration had anything to do with the deal is ludicrous.

The article notes the role the policies of the Obama administration played in this peace deal:

But in one sense, Biden is correct, albeit not for the reasons he cited. The Obama administration, by its support for the theocratic, despotic Iranian regime, the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world, triggered Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to link with Israel as all four countries were aware of the Iranian threat to all of them.

The Obama-Biden administration was probably the most hostile to Israel in American history. The administration repeatedly treated Israel as an obstacle to peace in the Middle East while praising Iran, a knows sponsor of terrorism.

It is the political silly season. We can expect much more of this before the election in November.