California has what is called a ‘jungle primary,’ which means there are not separate party primaries–everyone is in one primary, and the top two candidates go on the ballot. Because California is about as blue a blue state as possible, generally that puts two Democrats on the ballot for governor. No problem. However, this year there is a problem. There is a possibility (remote, but there) that two Republicans will be on the ballot and the Democrats will be shut out. If there is a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, the Democrat wins (even if it takes thousands of mail-in ballots that show up after the election to ensure that victory). But if the Democrats are shut out of the election, California could have a Republican governor (horrors!). So what can be done?
On Friday, Legal Insurrection posted an article quoting Politico:
Gavin Newsom said he’s confident at least one Democrat will advance from California’s June gubernatorial primary, hinting at a “break-the-glass” contingency plan as he declined — yet again — to endorse in the race.
The California governor, speaking at his budget presentation on Thursday, said that rather than pick a candidate, he has focused on ensuring that Democrats are not locked out of the primary, in which the top-two vote getters regardless of party go on to the general election.
“I do not see that scenario taking place,” he said.
Newsom said there was a “break-the-glass” contingency plan to prevent that from happening, and alluded to behind-the-scenes efforts to rally people. He did not specify his activities, but the Democratic Governors Association recently began sending mail highlighting Republican Steve Hilton as a fierce conservative. The ostensible opposition campaign could drive GOP voters to Hilton, ensuring he consolidates the party’s voters and saps the support of the other Republican candidate, Chad Bianco, enough to keep him from finishing in the top two.
The article at Legal Insurrection concludes:
It may be worth taking a closer look at what precisely Democratic operatives are doing behind the scenes to shape — and potentially influence — the trajectory of this race. With so much at stake, you can bet Democrats will pull out all the stops to prevent a Republican from capturing the governorship.
That reality raises broader questions about coordination, spending, ballot harvesting operations, and other political tactics that could affect the outcome of the contest long before votes are cast. Just as the Republican National Committee deployed teams of attorneys ahead of the 2024 presidential election to monitor election procedures and respond quickly to potential irregularities, Republicans may want to consider a similarly proactive legal and organizational strategy in California’s gubernatorial race.
Similar to what pundits say about any potential deal with Iran, when dealing with Democrats, the guiding principle should be: “Don’t trust and verify, verify, verify.”