Making Statistics Say Whatever You Want Them To

On Wednesday, The Washington Examiner posted an article listing the three most unsafe states in the country. The states listed were Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. I wondered how New York, California, and Illinois didn’t make the list, but then I saw the criteria.

The article reports:

The results of the study were formed by taking 53 key safety indicators that were grouped into five categories, then comparing how all 50 states fared in each of these indicators. The data examined included the percentage of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 , assaults per capita, and the unemployment rate, all of which fell under five categories: personal and residential safety, financial safety, road safety, workplace safety, and emergency preparedness, according to WalletHub.

Just for my own entertainment, I decided to look up some crime statistics for Chicago.

A website called vanlifewanderer reported the following:

Statistically speaking, Chicago is an slightly unsafe place to visit. In 2020, Chicago reported 26,583 violent crimes and had a violent crime rate of 967.93 per 100,000 people. Chicago’s violent crime rate is more than twice the national average and is on par with cities like Philadelphia, Houston and Cincinnati.

The same website reported the following about New Orleans:

In 2021, New Orelans reported 201 homicides, 712 rapes, 1,106 robberies and 3,196 aggravated assaults.New Orleans had the 14th highest violent crime rate in the country in 2020.New Orleans’s violent crime rate is 2.1x greater than the state average.New Orlean’s has a similar crime rate to Albuquerque, Baltimore and Kansas City.

The article at The Washington Examiner reported:

“There may be countless threats and hazards for folks to consider when considering areas to where they might remain or relocate,” said Rebecca Rouse, a professor at Tulane University in Louisiana. “Hazards include weather, climate, air quality, natural disasters, technological failures, accidental events, and more.”

The safest states included in the survey were Vermont, Maine , New Hampshire, Utah, and Hawaii . Vermont and Maine were in the top three states for personal and residential safety, while Maine ranked as the best state for emergency preparedness, the study found.

Based on the number of cases of people fully-vaccinated against Covid who have contacted the disease, I don’t think the rate of vaccination should be considered in calculations involving the safety of a state. The recent spike in subway crime in New York City and the amount of gun violence during an average weekend in Chicago would be much more concerning to me than whether or not the person standing next to me was vaccinated.