On Sunday, Zero Hedge posted an article about
The article reports:
OPEC+ agreed to pause production hikes and leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meetings on Sunday as the group slows down its push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut.
Eight OPEC+ members have paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025, and Sunday’s meeting reaffirmed that decision, OPEC said in a statement.
OPEC+ still has about 3.24 million bpd of output cuts in place, representing around 3% of global demand. The Sunday meetings did not alter those. These comprise a 2 million bpd oil output cut by most members which is in place until the end of 2026, and the remaining 1.24 million bpd of a 1.65 million bpd reduction that the eight members started to return to the market in October.
Oil is a worldwide commodity. America’s increased oil and natural gas production have impacted the energy market. OPEC can no longer dramatically impact the American economy by increasing or decreasing its oil output. Many of us who remember the oil embargo of the 1970’s appreciate President Trump’s move toward American energy independence. As OPEC resumes production increases, Americans will probably see their energy costs decrease slightly–OPEC currently represents only 3% of global demand.
The article concludes:
Among the OPEC+ members, Russia, Iran and Venezuela are under Western sanctions.
“The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
The meeting of OPEC+ came during a fresh U.S. effort to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could add to oil supply if sanctions on Russia are eased. If the peace deal fails, Russia could see its supply curbed further by sanctions. Alternatively, a peace deal could unleash millions of “clean” barrels on markets that have been locked out since 2022.
OPEC+ has been discussing the production capacity and quotas issue for years and it has proved difficult because some members such as the United Arab Emirates have increased capacity and want higher quotas.
Other members such as African countries have seen declines in production capacity but are resisting quota cuts. Angola quit the group in 2024 over a disagreement about its production quotas.
Brent crude closed on Friday near $63 a barrel, down 15% this year; it has been in a mostly straight decline since the 2nd quarter of 2024.
As America increases its energy production, the impact of OPEC’s decisions will lessen.