Understanding Some Of The Logic

The Trump administration seems to be targeting Venezuela for a number of reasons. One reason is to remove a dictator who is a threat to the western hemisphere. Venezuela is hosting a number of terrorists groups and other groups that have a goal of destroying America. They are also a source of drugs that have killed millions of Americans. But there is more to the story.

According to an Oil Price website article of December 22:

  • Trump’s rhetoric aligns closely with unresolved arbitration rulings over Venezuela’s 2007 seizure of U.S. oil assets.
  • The dispute, long confined to courts and asset seizures, is now being reframed as a matter of U.S. foreign policy.

According to a Bloomberg Law article from January 23, 2025:

Venezuela must pay an $8.7 billion claim to ConocoPhillips stemming from asset seizures during the reign of the late Hugo Chavez after an international court rebuffed the South American nation’s final appeal.

The World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes upheld a 2019 ruling in favor of the US oil explorer’s demand for compensation for seizures more than a decade ago, ConocoPhillips announced Thursday.

The Oil Price article states:

The Legal Case Behind the Rhetoric

ConocoPhillips pursued international arbitration for years and ultimately won multiple awards. Most recently, in January 2025, arbitration rulings were upheld totaling approximately $8.7 billion plus interest. Venezuela has consistently refused to pay.

The U.S. Treasury has authorized ConocoPhillips to pursue enforcement actions worldwide, including the seizure of Venezuelan assets held abroad. Some assets have been targeted over the years, but full recovery has remained elusive.

Trump’s framing of Venezuela as having “stolen” American oil aligns directly with this legal history. While Venezuela claims sovereign authority over its resources, international tribunals ruled the expropriation illegal under international law. Trump appears to be elevating that unresolved legal judgment into a matter of U.S. foreign policy enforcement.

I don’t recommend toppling foreign governments. Historically we have done more harm than good when we have done that. However, the people of Venezuela have been protesting the Chavez and Maduro regimes for a number of years. If the people who could create a democracy or a republic are still alive and able to do that, it would be good news for everyone.