On Friday, David Blackmon’s Energy Additions posted an article at Substack explaining why diesel prices are so high.

Here are some of the reasons:

The Shock: Two Wars Took Diesel off the World Market

…According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), net diesel exports from Russia and the Persian Gulf in August were 1.6 million barrels a day lower than in February. In February, those two regions accounted for almost 45 percent of the diesel traded by sea.

…But Why do These Wars Affect Diesel Prices in the United States, Especially Prices in the Midwest?

A similar question is: if the United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and we are currently a petroleum exporter, why are we seeing these high prices, especially high diesel prices? The answer is that oil markets are global. The diesel market is global, and with the loss of a substantial amount of diesel from Russia and the Middle East, global diesel prices are very high.

…But Why Now? Why are These Wars Increasing Prices Now and Not a Few Months Ago?

The blunt answer is that the world is running out of excess capacity and shock absorbers in the oil system.

Diesel prices jumped when the Iran war began, from $3.90 a gallon on March 2 to $5.64 on April 6, then eased to $4.58 by July 6 (EIA). Since then, they have climbed nearly $2.

The article concludes:

If You Want Sustainably Lower Diesel Prices, We Need Peace in Ukraine and the Middle East

Diesel prices will come down for good when the diesel the wars took off the market comes back: when Russia’s refineries are repaired and its exports resume, when tankers can move freely through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and when Gulf refineries are running again.

An export ban does not add a single barrel of diesel to the world market. It moves barrels from Rotterdam and Lima to Chicago, and it raises the world price that sets what Americans pay on the East and West Coasts.

Until peace comes, policymakers should focus on adding supply and moving it to where it is needed: keeping U.S. refineries running, and waiving the Jones Act so Gulf Coast diesel can reach the East Coast by ship. This crisis also shows the cost of letting the shock absorbers run down. The United States entered it with thin diesel stocks, a depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and about 400,000 barrels a day less refining capacity than it had at the start of 2025.

The world needs peace and America needs refining capacity. Those two things will do more to bring diesel prices under control than anything else.