The Drums Of War Are Sounding

On Tuesday, the Times of Israel posted a story about some new military construction in Iran. According to the article, Iran has begun constructing a new state-of-the-art, anti-aircraft missile base near the city of Abadeh, in southern Iran.

The article states:

Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi said Iran will commission a new generation of fighter jets, missiles, unmanned drones and submarines by the Iranian New Year, which falls in March 2013.

Iran’s purported military advancements are impossible to independently verify because the country does not release technical details of its arsenals or rely on equipment from major international defense contractors.

Meanwhile, USA Today is reporting that Israel may not give the United States much advance notice if it attacks Iran.

The article reports:

The assumption is that U.S. warning of an Israeli attack would come “significantly less than an hour” before it began, said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “How much of that would come from Israeli notification and how much would come from sensors we have in the region, I don’t know.”

There is a difference of opinion between Israel and the United States as to when it will be appropriate to attack Iran. I think both countries agree that it should be before Iran uses its nuclear weapons against Israel–but that is probably the only point of agreement. Israel wants to attack as soon as Iran has all the makings of an atomic bomb and delivery system. President Obama seems to be leaning toward the idea that an attack is appropriate only after Iran has successfully assembled an atomic bomb. Israel thinks (probably correctly) that waiting that long will be signing their own death warrant. Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to target all American bases in the Middle East if it is attacked.

I am not optimistic about finding peace in the Middle East. I don’t think Israel will attack Iran before November unless they feel that President Obama is going to be re-elected. I think they would much rather have Mitt Romney in the White House when they attack. I am also not sure if Israel has the bunker busting bombs needed for a successful attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. I suspect that the Romney Administration might be more willing to lend them these bombs than the Obama Administration.

I have no explanation for President Obama’s apparent lack of support for Israel. I do think that lack of support may become very obvious if Israel feels it needs to attack Iran before the November election.

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