The Trump Economy

On Thursday, CNBC posted an article about the inflation numbers for July.

The article reports:

  • The producer price index was flat in July compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase. Core PPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast.
  • PPI measures wholesale inflation and was the latest metric to show easing price pressures after months of gains.

The article notes:

Wholesale costs for goods and services were flat in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday in the latest positive sign for inflation.

The producer price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged for the month, below the 0.2% Dow Jones consensus estimate and after falling 0.1% in June. The June figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 0.3%.

Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2%, against the forecast for a 0.3% gain. The core PPI excluding trade services increased 0.4%.

On an annual basis, the headline PPI increased 4.7% for the all-items index and 4.2% for core, according to unadjusted figures.

The report follows several other indicators telling a similar story – that after a ramp-up in inflation earlier this year fueled by the Iran war and President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the rate of price increases is beginning to ease.

Stock market futures were positive after the report while Treasury yields were lower. Traders further reduced the odds for a September rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

The article concludes:

On Wednesday, the BLS reported that the consumer price index rose just 0.1% in July as falling energy prices during the month helped lower price pressures. However, the headline annual inflation rate of 3.4% was still well above the Fed’s goal.

Core consumer inflation was considerably tamer, posting a 0.2% monthly gain and 2.5% annual rate that put the level back to where it was prior to the start of the war.

Market expectations have switched in recent days, with traders now pricing in a rate hike in October or December after putting heavy odds that the Federal Open Market Committee would move at its next meeting on Sept. 15-16.

In other economic news Thursday, initial jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended Aug. 8, up 9,000 from the prior period and above the 204,000 estimate.

We need to remember that Rome was not built in a day. Inflation is gradually coming down, trade deficits are down, manufacturing jobs are up, and industries are moving back to America. These are all positive things that are the result of President Trump’s economic policies. If the Democrats are successful in the mid-term elections, most of these good things will disappear.

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