One of President Trump’s strong points is his ability to use economic leverage to solve international issues. He has begun to use that principle on Russia and Ukraine, but so far both countries have resisted his efforts–Russia because it wants a warm-water port and Ukraine because of the amount of money flowing into the country that is unaccounted for.
On Monday, The New York Post posted an opinion piece with some suggestions that might speed along the negotiations.
The opinion piece states:
President Donald Trump wants to stop the killing in Ukraine, but Russia’s foot-dragging is making it abundantly clear that he’ll need to apply far more pressure before any serious negotiations can begin.
To do so, Trump will have to squeeze Russia’s primary source of income, its oil revenues — without upending the global energy market in the process.
In an interview that aired Sunday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine and balked at Trump’s push for direct talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Putin insists that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kyiv-controlled parts of the country’s eastern Donbas region — an idea Ukraine has rightly dismissed as a non-starter — and demands a host of other concessions aimed at making what’s left of Ukraine a vassal state.
So long as Putin conditions the war’s end on maximalist terms, fighting will continue.
…The simplest, most impactful move would be to threaten a new sanctions regime against any company or bank involved in the purchase of Russian oil.
If done right, Trump could bolster America’s negotiating leverage without spiking oil prices.
State-run oil refiners in both India and China have so far flouted Trump’s tariffs, but those firms would run scared from US financial sanctions, which would render those companies — and the banks processing their transactions — toxic to the global financial system.
As part of a new energy sanctions framework, the Treasury Department could allow Chinese and Indian firms to continue importing Russian crude only if they gradually reduce those purchases — and then deposit the money owed Russia in escrow accounts in Beijing and New Delhi.
This would sever Moscow’s access to much-needed revenue without suddenly cutting off global access to the barrels themselves, keeping the oil market stable.
Such a move would simultaneously facilitate the purchase of more American energy, as Trump continues his multi-dimensional trade talks with India, China and others.
Crippling the Russian economy would end the war. How to deal with the corruption in Ukraine would be a different challenge. At some point in the future, we may find out that much of the money going to Ukraine somehow winds up in American political campaign coffers. That might explain why so much of Congress is not really interested in peace.