Author: R. Alan Harrop, Ph.D.
Elon Musk recently made a comment about starting a third political party to provide an alternative to the Republicans and Democrats. He wrote on “X” that the so-called America Party is intended to appeal to the centrist voters who he believes make up 80% of those in the middle. Let’s examine why this is a terrible idea for anyone who wants to preserve the United States as it has existed for almost 250 years.
America has been essentially a two-party system since 1856 with the emergence of the Republican Party. Although no third-party candidate since then has ever won the presidency, there have been instances where they dramatically influenced the outcome of the presidential race. The Republican Party was formed before the Civil War as an alternative to the Whig and Democrat parties, neither of which was willing to take a definitive stance against slavery. The abolition of slavery was one of the main issues favored by the new Republican Party.
Forming an effective, winning third party is difficult in this country due to the existence of the Electoral College process and the creation of voting districts that permit only one person to be designated as the winner. In contrast, in parliamentary democracies, each party can use its winners to combine with other parties to elect a prime minister or president even though they are in the minority. That is exactly how Adolf Hitler came to power in Germany even though he received only 30% of the popular vote. Another obstacle to third parties is the primary election system where voters get to select their candidates in each party instead of party bosses.
However, in at least two notable instances, third-party candidates have garnered enough votes to determine who won the presidential election even though their candidate did not win. The first example was in 1912 when ex-president Theodore Roosevelt decided to withdraw from the Republican Party and form a third party called the Bull Moose Party. As a result, he split the conservative vote, receiving 27% while the Republican nominee William Howard Taft received 23%. This allowed Democrat Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency even though he only received 42% of the popular vote, considerably less than the 50% combination for Roosevelt and Taft. The second example occurred in 1992 when Ross Perot, running as a third-party candidate received 20% of the popular vote allowing Democrat Bill Clinton, who received only 43% to defeat Republican H.W. Bush who received 38%. In both cases the third-party candidate split the conservative vote, allowing liberal Democrats to win with considerably less than 50% of votes cast. Clearly, the Democrat Party would love to see Elon Musk launch a third party in time for the next presidential election in 2028.
Winning the presidency is not just a matter of spending money. If it were, then billionaire candidates would be favored to win. What really counts is a party organization that can do the grass roots work to get out the voters for their candidate. Also, getting on the ballot in most states requires varying amounts of voter signatures, which again requires a strong grass roots organization.
Another troubling thing is that Musk himself is not a natural born citizen since he was born in South Africa in 1971. This makes him ineligible to run for president himself. Consequently, some other person would have to be his third-party nominee. He became a naturalized citizen in 2002 after having immigrated to this country in 1992.
The bottom line is that we do not need recent immigrants, no matter how rich, determining the outcome of our elections. We, conservatives should not allow ourselves to be duped into thinking that a third party can do anything but hand the presidency to the leftist Democrats, who on their current path, will continue to move America towards socialism. Conservative tax payers must stay loyal to the only party that is for lower taxes, smaller government, and freedom to achieve our goals.