Author:  R. Alan Harrop, Ph.D.   

When I heard about Ukraine’s recent successful drone attack inside Russia that reportedly destroyed considerable numbers of the Russian heavy bomber force, I thought about the biblical story of David and Goliath. The idea that small, inexpensive drones could destroy multimillion dollar aircraft was astonishing. It also serves as a warning to us, that our military arms are not safe from similar attacks.

Although the exact details of the attack are still uncertain, it appears that four Russian airbases were struck simultaneously, the furthest, the Belaya base, about 3000 miles from the border with Ukraine. The estimate seems to be that about 20 Russian Tu-95s and Tu-22s nuclear capable bombers, were either destroyed or considerably damaged. According to Ukrainian sources, a total of 117 drones were smuggled into Russia, concealed within retractable roofs of wooden sheds, and transported to sites near the four airbases. The drones were piloted remotely, in some cases using artificial intelligence. Previously, Ukraine has successfully used long range drones to strike oil refineries, military bases, and arms depots; however, due to their slow speed, many have been shot down. Launching these relatively small drones from shorter distances was unique and obviously caught the Russians by surprise.

This shows that the use of new drone technology is changing the nature of warfare. For example, tanks and armored vehicles may becoming obsolete. Last year alone, Russia reportedly lost 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 pieces of artillery, and 400 air defense systems, many as the result of drone attacks. And while the size and carrying capacity of drones has increased, much of the damage is done by small drones similar in size and cost to commercial drones like those used by realtors and hobbyists. This reality has resulted in the expansion of drone manufacturing both in Ukraine and Russia. When the war started, Ukraine had seven drone manufacturing plants, whereas now they have eighty. The improved technology has made the drones less detectable and more difficult to shoot down. For instance, instead of being directed by radio control, most have internal controls less susceptible to interference. As noted above, artificial intelligence is providing greater self- direction capability. Instead of using a few very expensive manned attack aircraft, scores of attack drones are launched to overwhelm the air defense systems. The cost difference is astonishing. Using a multimillion-dollar missile to shoot down a drone costing a few thousand dollars is not sustainable.

What this unfortunate war is demonstrating must be taken into account if our country is to maintain an effective military defense system. There are lessons that need to be learned. As technology advances, military systems must adapt. For instance, in World War II, the utility of battleships was replaced by aircraft carriers that allowed control of the air space over the enemy positions. Are we about to see the use of small drone submarines as an attack force against large aircraft carriers? I would not be surprised. Defending against a flood of drones is like stepping on a wasp nest–a real challenge.

Hopefully, our military leaders will show the wisdom to profit from what is happening in the Ukraine/Russia war and ensure that we are up to date on these new realities. Similarly, we must ensure that or military bases are secure from drone attacks. Allowing adversarial countries like China to own any land in the United States, much less near any military base, must be stopped. Similarly, allowing an overwhelming 400,000 Chinese students to attend our universities is equally foolish. Thank goodness we have a President who recognizes the threat. Let’s hope the rogue justices that continually try to block President Trump from taking actions needed to secure our country can be reigned- in either by the Supreme Court or by Congress before it is too late.