Author: R. Alan Harrop, Ph.D.
Advancing technology is the essence of modern civilization. The rate of technological change is becoming downright mind boggling. Since changing technology is neither inherently good or bad, the question becomes how effective will mankind be, in using these rapid technological changes in a manner that benefits the human race. Looking back in history is not reassuring, especially how new technologies have permitted mankind to dramatically increase the lethality of war.
One of the major changes impacting the military is the development and use of drones (i.e. unmanned vehicles). When most people think of drones, they imagine small, battery powered flying devices used for recreational or aerial photography. The war between Ukraine and Russia has shown that drones have become major components of war. It is estimated that over a million drones have been used thus far in that war. The United States military has been exploring the use of drones, and in fact deployed them in Afghanistan and possibly other areas such as Iraq. Most other countries are now producing and equipping their military with drones.
The variety of military drones is amazing and getting more sophisticated by the day. Here are just a couple of examples. One of the simplest is the RQ-11 Raven: Size 3 ft. by 5 ft. Hand launched. Speed: 18 mph. Endurance: 90 minutes. Cost: $250,000. Purpose: Used for close-up reconnaissance and observation of enemy positions and troop placements. A medium size drone example is the Boeing RO-21 Blackjack. Size: 8 ft. by 16 ft. Ground launched. Speed: 100 mph. Endurance: 24 hrs. Cost: $ 14 million. Used for longer range and higher elevation surveillance. The third example is the MO Reaper: Size: 36 ft. by 65 ft. Land or aircraft carrier launched. Speed: 400 mph. Range: 1200 miles. Cost: $28 million. Essentially replaces manned air craft. Notice the cost of these drones. Not cheap.
Most of the drones used in the Ukraine/Russia war have been relatively small drones used in support of local ground forces. With appropriate explosives they can attack and destroy not only infantry positions but artillery placements and even armored tanks. This undoubtedly has saved many human casualties. One aspect of drone attacks is that they are effective against parked aircraft and even naval ships; especially if they are deployed in swarms which overwhelm defenses. There is also the disparagement in the cost. The smaller drones that the Houti rebels have launched against our naval ships require expensive defensive missiles to shoot them down. Drones that cost, say $25,000, require Patriot system missiles to shoot them down which cost well over $1 million each to produce.
Most of the early drones were radio signal controlled. However, the development of artificial intelligence is allowing the control of the drone far beyond most radio control systems. How much independence AI systems have when controlling and directing the drone attack remains to be discovered. Admittedly, the military use of drones is in its beginning stage. Have we reached the point where robots flying robotic vehicles are fighting our wars? If so, who will actually be in control? Also, there was a time in the Cold War where only super rich countries could afford the expense of nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Will the spread of inexpensive drones expand the threat of war by other countries? Will there come a time when countries will no longer need highly trained pilots? Just reflect on what China has been doing buying up extensive farmland around our military bases. How about attacks on our power grid?
The challenge of drones from a security perspective must be taken seriously.