Admitting The Obvious

I have stated my views of the Federal Reserve numerous times. It needs to go. For an explanation of why I believe this, please watch this video. It is long, but worth the watch.

If I had any doubts about the politicization of the Federal Reserve, those doubts were confirmed by an article posted at Breitbart on Tuesday.

The article reports:

The Fed chair (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell) once warned against using speculative forecasts to drive policy. Now he’s doing exactly that.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a quiet but extraordinary admission on Tuesday: if the Fed were following the actual data, it would be cutting interest rates. But it isn’t—because the Fed expects President Trump’s tariffs to raise inflation, and it’s choosing to act on that forecast instead.

“If you just look at the basic data and don’t look at the forecast, you would say that we would’ve continued cutting,” Powell told lawmakers. “The difference, of course, is at this time all forecasters are expecting pretty soon that some significant inflation will show up from tariffs. And we can’t just ignore that.”

That’s a remarkable departure from the Fed’s longstanding mantra of data-dependence. It also reveals the extent to which the central bank is allowing anti-tariff bias—and speculative inflation models—to override clear economic signals pointing toward looser policy.

The data are, in Powell’s own words, favorable to a resumption of rate cuts. Inflation has come down meaningfully. We don’t yet have the personal consumption expenditure index reading for May, but Harvard economist Jason Furman’s calculation based on CPI is that the three-month annualized rate is around 0.6 percent for headline inflation and 1.4 percent for annualized inflation. The year-over-year figure is two percent for headline, exactly at the Fed’s target, and 2.5 percent for core inflation.

The article reminds us of some of Powell’s recent mistakes:

In some ways, Powell’s decision to ignore current data in favor of tariff-driven inflation forecasts echoes a costly Fed error from the recent past. In 2021, the Fed insisted that inflation was “transitory,” even as prices surged month after month. Officials were guided not by what the data showed, but by what their models predicted—that supply chain pressures would ease and inflation would naturally subside. It didn’t. And the Fed was forced to scramble, hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to restore credibility.

Reducing interest rates at this point would help significantly in the recovery of America’s economy. After four years of inflation, lower wages, and slow employment growth, Americans are ready for the Federal Reserve to be a help rather than a hindrance.