It is expected that the deal reached yesterday in Congress will be voted on today.  It is expected to pass.

Last night, Chris Cillizza posted an article in the Washington Post listing the groups he considered winners and losers in the final product.  Obviously until the bill is written into law and the small print read, nothing is certain, but Mr. Cillizza sums up what the current agreement says about the power struggles in Washington.

The list of winners includes Mitch McConnell, the Tea Party, President Obama, the Congressional Budget Office, Grover Norquist, and David Wu.  Mitch McConnell was the closer.  He stated clearly what was at stake and was at the center of the negotiations.  The Tea Party changed the debate.  They also forced John Boehner to create a more conservative bill by refusing to pass something that did not have the provisions they had promised to their voters.  President Obama succeeded by reaching a compromise.  His goal is to convince the independent voters that he is not as liberal as he seems.  This deal will probably anger his base, but it may win him the votes of some independents.  The Congressional Budget Office played a major role in the negotiations–scoring the plans as they were announced.  Many people who had not been paying attention until recently became acquainted with the Congressional Budget Office during this debate.  Grover Norquist, head of Americans for Tax Reform, who asked House Members to sign a pledge not to raise taxes, remains a person whose wishes have to be respected.  David Wu was forced to resign because of a sex scandal that simply got lost in the news because of the budget debate.

The losers in this deal include Congress, the Gang of Six, Commissions, and Liberals.  Congress loses because it really looked ineffective in resolving the situation.  With a few exceptions, most Congressman looked as if they were more concerned about winning votes than solving the problem.  The Gang of Six was totally ineffective.  The underlying issue of this debate was the size of government and the money the government would need to grow–there was never any agreement on that and probably never will be.  The answer to that divide is to elect a majority of people who support one side or the other.  The divide will always be there.  Commissions do not have a good success rate.  It is questionable whether the commission established in this compromise will be any different.  Liberals lost because there are no tax increases in the deal.  Just as the Tea Party insisted on no tax increases, liberals stated that tax increases had to be part of the deal.  The Tea Party won.

It’s too early to celebrate–the details are not totally known.  One big problem with this bill will be that no one will be able to study it carefully before it is passed.  Transparency was not part of this process and that is unfortunate.