Don’t Get Too Excited About The 5% Economic Growth

Some things are just not what they appear to be. John Hinderaker posted an article at Power Line today about the 5% GDP increase in the third quarter of 2014. Admittedly, that sounds really good, but unfortunately, there is a fly in the ointment.

The New York Times was all abuzz on Tuesday::

So here, for the holidays, is the festive news: The economy roared ahead at a 5 percent annual growth rate in the July through September quarter, the fastest quarterly growth since 2003.

…The biggest revision that boosted G.D.P. was in personal consumption spending, the biggest engine of overall economic activity, which rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate, not the 2.2 percent rate earlier estimated. That suggests that falling energy prices are leaving Americans in better position to spend on everything else.

Wow. That sounds really great, but let’s look a little closer.

Power Line reports:

But no: the “personal consumption” that drove the supposed economic boom in the third quarter was the increased cost of Obamacare, spending that had been moved from the first quarter to make the third quarter look better:

This is the chart:

 

Final Q3 GDP contribution_2_0

In short, two-thirds of the “boost” to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the “polar vortex” crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this “growth dry powder” for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.

The article at Power Line concludes:

We can only hope that exploding Obamacare costs don’t drive “personal consumption” any higher in future quarters, and also that this sort of statistical manipulation comes to an end when the endlessly corrupt Obama administration finally departs the scene.

Between now and 2016, we need to make sure the voters understand what is going on.