Michael Barone is the expert on American politics–voting trends nationally, statewide, and districtwide. He posted an article in yesterday’s Washington Examiner talking about possible unintended consequences of this year’s Congressional and gubernatorial elections.
According to the article:
“…the optimistic scenario belongs to the Republicans. If they hold what they have and capture a few governorships (Ohio, Tennessee, Wisconsin) and a few legislative chambers (the Houses in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and both houses in Wisconsin), they will control redistricting in 11 states with more than five House seats, including Florida, George, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Those states are projected to have 178 House seats.”
Now before anyone gets too excited about this, we need to remember the Republican’s gift for setting up circular firing squads and shooting themselves in the foot. Also, if the Democrats control California, the state is big enough to offset any redistricting gains elsewhere.
Mr. Barone also points out the the voters right now do not have predictable party alignments. Party affiliations are very fluid right now, so that even what was a safe district for one party three years ago could go in a different direction very rapidly.
It is going to be an interesting November.