Why February 11th Is An Important Date

Tomorrow marks the 31st Anniversary of the Iranian Revolution that brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power. In the past, the Iranian regime marked this anniversary with demonstrations designed to show the regime's power--military parades and large gatherings of enthusiastic followers of the regime.  This year may be a little different. 

This is a tinderbox.  An article at The Corner at National Review reports:

"...they have decided to keep the Supreme Guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, away from the main ceremony. Although the crowds will consist mostly of rent-a-mob elements, many of them shipped to Tehran from the provinces, no one can guarantee the kind of sheep-like discipline that has marked such gatherings in previous years. Today Iran is in a decidedly insurrectionary mood. With hundreds of figures from past governments, including two former presidents and one former prime minister, having joined the opposition, along with scores of former lawmakers, there is every possibility that even supposedly loyal crowds could switch sides on the spur of the moment."

The feeling among Iran-watchers is that if the regime cracks down hard on the protestors (which are expected to be out in large numbers), it will hasten the end of the current regime.  Why does this matter to us?  Iran is well into the process of becoming a nuclear power.  The only nation in the world that may be willing to do anything to stop this process is Israel.  The only thing that will actually stop Iran from becoming nuclear (other than a military attack, which may or may not be effective) will be a change of leadership.  Right now a large segment of the population is under the age of thirty.  (This is the result of the prolonged war that Iran fought with Iraq--that war killed (by some estimates) one million people).  These young people are very pro-Western.  They are at an age where they are not weighed down with family responsibilities, etc.  They are also at an age where they have the passion of youth.  In five years, there may be a very different demographic.