A Positive Economic Picture

CNS News is reporting today that the economy is doing better than predicted.

The article reports:

A record 157,005,000 people were employed in June, the most since February and the 19th record of Trump’s presidency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.

And the economy added a strong 224,000 jobs in June, well above the estimate of 160,000.

The unemployment rate, the lowest in 50 years, ticked up a tenth of a point to 3.7 percent.

In June, the nation’s civilian noninstitutionalized population, consisting of all people age 16 or older who were not in the military or an institution, reached 259,037,000. Of those, 162,981,000 participated in the labor force by either holding a job or actively seeking one.

The 162,981,000 who participated in the labor force equaled 62.9 percent of the 259,037,000 civilian noninstitutionalized population. That’s up a tenth of a point from May’s 62.8 percent participation rate. The payroll taxes paid by people who participate in the labor force help support those who do not participate, so the higher this number, the better.

The participation rate reached a record high of 67.3 percent in early 2000; the highest it’s been under Trump is 63.2 percent.

In December 2016, the labor force participation rate was 62.7. It has moved between 62.7 and 63.1 since President Trump took office.

I love the fact that during a Republican administration, the estimates of jobs created is always low and economists are always surprised when the real numbers come out.

The article concludes:

And wages continue rising: In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $27.90, following a 9-cent gain in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in a June 25 speech, said the economy has performed “reasonably well” so far this year, with continued growth and strong job creation keeping the unemployment rate near historic lows.

But Powell also mentioned “some ongoing cross-currents,” including trade uncertainty and incoming data about the strength of the global economy.

He said the Fed “will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion…” That could mean lower interest rates — or not, if the employment and job numbers remain strong.

Economic policies impact the economy. It matters who is occupying the White House. President Trump has proved that.

The Other Side Of The Story

There has been some outrage about the reduction in force of our military which has caused soldiers in combat to receive pink slips. While that is not really the way to do things, a friend of mine on facebook does a very good job of explaining the background of the situation. This is her post:

A retention board has cut 233 staff sergeants who have been at least twice passed over for promotion and who have served for at least 15 years. (Cpl. Sonia N. Rodriguez/Marine Corps)

Nearly three in 10 Marine staff sergeants considered by the service’s first Staff Sergeant Retention Board held in June were denied further service.

In all, the board considered 798 Marines, said Lt. Col. Rory Quinn, Manpower and Reserve Affairs’ End Strength Retention Optimization Group and Enlisted Assignments section head. Of those, 233 were cut. Another 565, or about 70 percent of those who went before the board, were retained. Those not retained will have their end of active service date changed to Jan. 31, 2015.

The board was limited to screening only E-6s who have been passed for promotion at least twice and have served 15 or more years, ensuring all those cut from the service will be eligible for the Temporary Early retirement Authority program. TERA offers Marines a retirement pension at a reduced rate, based on rank and years of service.

Until late 2013, Marines who made staff sergeant were permitted to remain in uniform through a 20-year retirement, barring any career-ending malfeasance, like a conviction for driving while intoxicated. Amos said those Marines would receive retirements regardless of manpower cuts.

As a result, some Marines considered the switch controversial. But Marine officials say it did not “break faith” with Marines or their families during the drawdown, which will cut the service from a wartime high of 202,000 to 174,000 by the end of 2017.The new policy remains true to Amos’ original remarks, they say, because the boards only considered staff sergeants eligible for TERA, which is still retirement. A similar reversal of policy was made for majors who for years were also permitted to remain in uniform through 20 years, regardless of their competitiveness for promotion.

While TERA isn’t a full 20-year retirement, Marines who opt for the program may still receive thousands of dollars per month for the duration of their retirement, based on rank and years of service.

The reduced pension is calculated by multiplying 2.5 percent of base pay by the number of years served, then subtracting 1 percent for each year under 20 served. So a staff sergeant with 15 years in would get $14,316 per year or about $1,193 per month.

Marines separated by the boards could also in theory opt for Voluntary Separation Pay, which can be offered to any Marine with more than six years of service. Marines who are TERA-eligible, however, are strongly advised to opt for the reduced pension over VSP’s lump-sum payout. While VSP can offer a generous one-time payout which breaks six-figures, Marines will be forgoing tens of thousands of dollars or more over the course of their retirement.

The retention board convened for the first time this year because not enough staff sergeants participated in voluntary force shaping measures like TERA.

“Recent reductions in authorized end strength structure have resulted in excess inventory in many military occupational specialties at the grade of staff sergeant,” according to Marine administrative message 242/14, which announced the board May 19.

As the drawdown got underway, staff sergeants proved one of the most stubbornly overpopulated ranks, in great part because of the practice that allowed them to remain in uniform even if they were not competitive for promotion. While that was great for Marines who made staff sergeant, it caused frustration among younger service members.

The introduction of annual Staff Sergeant Retention Boards may be a tough break for some staff noncommissioned officers, but it will be a breath of fresh air for junior Marines in bottle-necked MOSs. With a shrinking force, junior enlisted Marines in some MOSs became frustrated by extremely slow times to pick up rank. Some were in MOSs that remain closed to promotion over the long term, meaning even the best among them could find themselves hitting up or out limits and pushed out of the service. In recent years, occupations caught in that bureaucratic breach included several in the infantry, such as 0369, which in 2012 was entirely closed to promotion to gunnery sergeant. It has opened a bit since then.

Fewer staff sergeants should help those competing for gunny. Also, clearing the backlog of staff sergeants and creating vacancies for sergeant to move up will have a trickle-down effect that will have a positive influence on career and promotion prospects for corporals and lance corporals, despite a continuous drop in the overall number of Marines.

Whether boards will be held each year is dependent on an analysis of staff sergeant populations in that given year. However, more boards are likely.

“Future analysis will always determine the final answer, but at this point it is reasonable to say that as long as there is a drawdown ongoing, programs like TERA will continue to be offered on the voluntary side and boards like the [Staff Sergeant] Retention Board and Majors Continuation Board will be examined during each annual planning cycle,” Quinn said.

It is definitely tacky to fire people in combat zones, but my friend Pamela, who is a former Marine, tells the other side of the story.

Looking Behind The Obvious Numbers

The jobs report came out today. John Hinderaker at Power Line posted an article about the numbers reminding us that what we read in the media may not be the whole story.

Some of the facts he points out:

* The number of people aged 16 years and above who are not in the labor force increased by 111,000 this past month. While a somewhat lower increase than in months past, it still outpaces forecasted retirements.

* The number of people taking part-time jobs because they cannot find full-time work increased by 275,000 this past month.

* In fact, the number of people employed full-time (according to the household survey that also counts self-employed) declined by 523,000 while the number of part-time workers increased by 799,000 (which includes those who wanted part-time and those who wanted full-time but could only find part-time). These estimates are seasonally adjusted to account for the normal increase in June part-time work.

* The U-6 unemployment rate (the broadest measure of unemployment) remains virtually unchanged at 12.1 percent. U-6 includes those people who are discouraged, only occasionally trying to find work, and those employed part-time for economic reasons.

The article also reminds us that both incomes and economic growth remain flat. It seems as if the only thing growing in this economy is the Stock Market (which the government is currently propping up).

Underneath The Jobs Numbers

Yahoo Finance posted an article today that included the Labor Force Participation Rate in the latest jobs numbers.

According to the article:

The civilian labor force decreased by 37,000 to 155.80 million in July, while those not in the labor force rose by 240,000 to 89.96 million.

The decrease in the percentage of Americans in the labor force–63.4% last month from 63.5% the month before–is one of the main reasons for the drop in the unemployment rate–to 7.4% in July from 7.6% in June.

Many of the jobs added were part time jobs and many jobs changed from full time to part time. ObamaCare has created some serious problems for the American economy (ObamaCare is responsible for the growth of part time jobs) and will continue to do so until it is defunded and stopped. I am not sure if the Republicans in the House of Representatives are going to get anywhere with their attempts at defunding it, but I give them credit for trying.

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The Jobs Numbers In Perspective

Mort Zuckerman posted an article at the Wall Street Journal yesterday analyzing the latest jobs report. Mort Zuckerman is chairman and editor in chief of U.S. News & World Report. In the article Mr. Zuckerman points out that the longest and worst recession since the end of World War II has been followed by the weakest recovery from a recession in that period.

The article points out that the jobless rate is actually increasing–not decreasing:

The jobless nature of the recovery is particularly unsettling. In June, the government’s Household Survey reported that since the start of the year, the number of people with jobs increased by 753,000—but there are jobs and then there are “jobs.” No fewer than 557,000 of these positions were only part-time. The survey also reported that in June full-time jobs declined by 240,000, while part-time jobs soared by 360,000 and have now reached an all-time high of 28,059,000—three million more part-time positions than when the recession began at the end of 2007.

That’s just for starters. The survey includes part-time workers who want full-time work but can’t get it, as well as those who want to work but have stopped looking. That puts the real unemployment rate for June at 14.3%, up from 13.8% in May.

That is not a recovery.

The article also points out:

That brings us to a stunning fact about the jobless recovery: The measure of those adults who can work and have jobs, known as the civilian workforce-participation rate, is currently 63.5%—a drop of 2.2% since the recession ended. Such a decline amid a supposedly expanding economy has never happened after previous recessions. Another statistic that underscores why this is such a dysfunctional labor market is that the number of people leaving the workforce during this economic recovery has actually outpaced the number of people finding a new job by a factor of nearly three.

We need a serious change of economic policy to turn this around. ObamaCare is a major part of the problem, but over regulation and over taxation also play a part in this problem. Unemployment numbers of above 7 percent should not be allowed to become the norm.

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Last Week’s Job Numbers

This is a chart from this past weekend’s Wall Street Journal:

image

There was good news and bad news for the American economy in the jobs report released last week.

One positive note:

One positive development is that the number of “long-time” unemployed, those out of work for six months or more, fell again and is down by one million workers over the past year. The dismally low labor participation rate ticked up to 63.5% from 63.4% in May as 177,000 more Americans entered the workforce, though the rate is still below the 63.8% from last June. Average hourly wages climbed a welcome 10 cents and for the first time hit $24.

But there were a few negative notes:

…a big jump of 247,000 in the number of “discouraged workers,” those who have stopped looking for a job

…big jump in the number of Americans who want to work full time but could only find part-time work. That number leapt to 8.23 million, a 322,000 one-month increase. Total part-time employment rose by 432,000, more than double the total number of net new jobs.

…those who can’t find a full-time job for economic reasons—still totals more than 20 million Americans and the rate unexpectedly rose in June to 14.3% from 13.8%

The article in the Wall Street Journal concluded:

On Tuesday the Obama Treasury announced it is postponing this employer mandate until 2015, and perhaps this will encourage more full-time hiring. But thousands of businesses, especially in retail and fast-food, have already started to cap employment for many workers at 30 hours and they know their reprieve is only for a year. If President Obama really wants to spur hiring, he’d let Congress delay the employer mandate forever.

ObamaCare is bad for American business and bad for the healthcare Americans now have available. If Congress and President Obama truly cared about the health of Americans, they would scrap ObamaCare completely and rewrite it to allow free market forces to control the cost of healthcare.

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This Is Disturbing

There are three major stories on the Internet today dealing with the attack on the American embassy in Libya and the death of American Ambassador Chris Stevens. The stories are at the Washington ExaminerBreitbart.com, and The Daily Beast.

The Washington Examiner reports:

“In addition, multiple U.S. federal government officials have confirmed to the Committee (House Oversight and Government Reform Committee) that, prior to the September 11 attack, the U.S. mission in Libya made repeated requests for increased security in Benghazi,” Issa and Chaffetz added (my emphasis). “The mission in Libya, however, was denied these resources by officials in Washington.”

The committee noted 13 “security threats” in Benghazi, including an attempt to assassinate the British ambassador to Libya.

Breitbart lists the attacks prior to September 11:

  • April 6, 2012 – An IED is thrown over the consulate fence in Benghazi.
  • April 11, 2012 – A gun battle 4km from the Benghazi consulate.
  • April 25, 2012 – A US Embassy guard in Tripoli is detained at a militia checkpoint.
  • April 26, 2012 – A fistfight escalates into a gunfight at a Benghazi Medical University and a US Foreign Service Officer in attendance is evacuated.
  • April 27, 2012 – Two South African contractors are kidnapped in Benghazi, questioned and released.
  • May 1, 2012 – Deputy Commander of the local guard force in Tripoli is carjacked and beaten.
  • May 22, 2012 – RPG rounds are fired at the Red Cross outpost in Benghazi.
  • June 2012 – A pro-Gaddafi Facebook page posts photos of Ambassador Stevens making his morning run in the city of Tripoli and made a threat toward the Ambassador.
  • June 6, 2012 – An IED is left at the gate of the US consulate in Benghazi.
  • June 10, 2012 – RPG is fired at the convoy carrying the British Ambassador in broad daylight as he is nearing the British consulate in Benghazi. No one is killed but the British later close the consulate.
  • Late June, 2012 – Another attack on the Red Cross outpost in Benghazi, this one in daylight. The Red Cross pulls out leaving the US consulate the last western outpost in the city.
  • August 6, 2012 – Attempted carjacking of a vehicle with US diplomatic plates in Tripoli.
  • Weeks prior to Sept. 11, 2012 – Libyan guards at the Benghazi consulate are “warned by their family members to quit their jobs” because of rumors of a “impending attack.”

The Daily Beast reports:

Security deteriorated significantly in June. On June 10, a man fired a rocket-propelled grenade in broad daylight into a convoy carrying the British ambassador to Libya. Later that month, the Red Cross was attacked again. By the end of June, the British Consulate and the Red Cross closed their facilities in Benghazi. By the start of July, the U.S. Consulate was one of the only Western targets left in the city.

“This was not a safe country on its way to a normalized situation. It was a very volatile situation,” Chaffetz told The Daily Beast.

The House Oversight Committee is expected to hold a hearing on Oct. 10 on the threats leading up to the attack.

Someone made some serious mistakes here in evaluating the risk to our Ambassador and other embassy employees. It seems as if common sense would have either increased the security at the embassy or at least temporarily removed the embassy from Libya.

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