The Impact Of The Trump Tax Cuts

The Gateway Pundit is reporting today that corporate first quarter earnings are the best in twenty-five years.

The article reports:

We predicted that this would be one of the greatest quarters ever in the history of corporate earnings and we were right. 

We reported on April 12th that “because of President Trump’s economic measures, the ‘bottom line’ or net profits for these companies will be the best 1st Quarter results ever!”  We also said –

As a result of these tax cuts, most US Corporation will deliver a net income in their financial results that is 14% greater than prior year. This starts in the 1st Quarter of 2018 and the results for many major companies will begin being reported in the next few weeks.  This means that for every large corporation reporting financial results in the US, the net income after taxes will be increased by 14% – an unheard of increase!

With many companies reporting their best year’s results ever in 2017, and the economy on fire, and taxes being cut by 14% – expectations are that the net income for these companies in the 1st Quarter of 2018 will be the best ever and this will continue from this point forward!

The article quotes a Marketwatch report:

According to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, of the 343 companies, or about 70%, of S&P 500 members that have reported earnings to date, 79.9% have reported earnings per share that were above analysts’ expectations, putting the season on track for the highest earnings beat rate on record, going back to 1994.

So far, the first-quarter growth rate for EPS is 22%, compared with consensus earnings growth of 16.3% as of April 12, according to Lindsey Bell, investment strategist at CFRA. That outperformance is underpinned by some of the most highly valued companies, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, -0.50% Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.44% Facebook Inc. FB, -0.32% and Inc. AMZN, -0.36%

Bell said recent quarterly results have seen outperformance of about 3 to 4 percentage points better than analysts’ consensus estimates on average, compared with the 5.7 percentage points earnings are currently running ahead.

Bell said what’s really impressive is that expectations were already lofty and this quarter represented the first in which the bar was raised to factor in fiscal stimulus measures such as corporate tax cuts, which took effect in late 2017.

“It’s significant because we haven’t seen a change like this from the very beginning to (the) start of reporting season,” Bell said.

The Marketwatch article is focused on why the stock market has not yet responded positively to good news in corporate earnings, but it includes a lot of interesting information about the current state of the economy. The biggest financial challenge we face as a nation is our continued overspending. Until that is brought under control, we will not have a truly healthy economy. Tax revenues are up since the tax cuts (that always happens–see the Laffer Curve for further information), but spending has also increased. We are a nation that based on our income should be driving a Ford but has gone out and purchased a Rolls Royce. At some point there will be a reckoning, and it will not be fun. We need to elect people who will shrink government and cut spending. Raising our taxes will not help because it will slow economic growth and decrease revenue. Please consider this when you vote in current primary elections and when you vote in November.