I was dismayed this week to hear that Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump in the polls. I should have investigated a little further. It’s not that I think Donald Trump is wonderful, I just think that Hillary Clinton is the more dangerous of the two. Anyway, The American Thinker blog posted a article yesterday about the poll. The article investigated where the numbers came from.

The article reports:

However, based on the polling details, the final weighted sample of 976 registered voters is made up of just 28% Republicans and 35% Democrats.

In the unweighted sample of registered voters, the relative percentage by party was 29% Republicans and 35% Democrats.

So, during the weighting process, the poll increased the Democrat-Republican spread from 6% to 7%.  This relative weighting should have been headed in the other direction.

According to nationwide polling data, Republican Party affiliation has averaged 28% for 2016 so far, and it also averaged 28% since the start of May.  This agrees well with the CBS News poll’s composition.

On the other hand, the last time the Democrats were at 35% was early March…of 2013.  Since May of this year, Democratic party affiliation has averaged 29%, just 1% higher than the Republicans, not 7% higher.

By now I should know better than to listen to polls. The article goes on to explain that if the poll had taken an accurate sample, the results would have been a statistical tie. It is becoming obvious that Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy as Secretary State (actually it was Barack Obama’s policy, but he never takes responsibility for anything negative) has made the world a more dangerous place. It will be interesting to see how well the media can spin that and if the average person figures out that she would be a disaster as President.