Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting, Inc.) posted an updated analysis on the Libyan opposition leadership yesterday.
Some of the things the article reports:
“The structure through which the Libyan opposition is represented is the National Transitional Council. The first man to announce its creation was former Libyan Justice Minister Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, who defected from the government Feb. 21 and declared the establishment of a “transitional government” Feb. 26. At the time, Abdel-Jalil claimed that it would give way to national elections within three months, though this was clearly never a realistic goal.”
The day after the announcement by Abdel-Jalil, Benghazi-based lawyer named Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga held a news conference where he claimed to be the spokesman for the new council. The article at Stratfor explains how this problem was solved:
“The National Transitional Council officially came into being March 6, and — for the moment, at least — has settled the personal and regional rivalry between Abdel-Jalil and Ghoga, with the former named the council’s head and the latter its spokesman. Despite the drama that preceded the formal establishment of the council, all members of the opposition have always been unified on a series of goals: They want to mount an armed offensive against the government-controlled areas in the west; they want to overthrow Gadhafi; they seek to unify the country with Tripoli as its capital; and they do not want foreign boots on Libyan soil. The unity of the rebels, in short, is based upon a common desire to oust the longtime Libyan leader.”
That is the current state of affairs. The article points out that the opposition forces have not become a meaningful military force. The air strikes by the nations that are aiding the rebellion have temporarily changed to balance of power to the rebels favor, but there seems to be a lack of basic military cohesion among the rebels. This is a tribal society, and America has recently experienced some serious difficulties in trying to help tribal societies find unity and democracy. The thing to keep in mind here is that a new government may not be any friendlier to western civilization that the old government was. The danger here is that we may be facilitating the establishment of a new Islamic state where Sharia Law is the basis of the judicial system.
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